普雷维什命题:历史与现实

劳尔·普雷维什 ( 1 90 1～ 1 986)是 2 0世纪拉美历史上“最有影响的经济学家”1,被公认为是“发展中国家的理论代表”2。在他所提出的一系列经济发展理论中 ,影响最大、争议最多的就是“贸易条件恶化论”。这一理论认为 ,发展中国家初级产品的贸易条件存在长期恶化的趋势。因为它是由普雷维什最早提出来的 ,所以也被称为“普雷维什命题”3 。一　“普雷维什命题”的主要内容所谓贸易条件 ,实际上就是一种交换关系 ,是一个国家以出口交换进口的条件。当出口能够交换到更多进口时 ,贸易条件就改善 ;反之 ,贸易条件就恶化。对贸易条件变化的…     

从全球化视角看非洲

非洲由于在国际分工体系中位居底层、经济发展滞后，以及政治稳定性差等等，难以利用后起优势实现赶超。从非洲整体来看，全球化于非洲是弊多利少。冷战后全球化浪潮的冲击，造成了非洲在国际政治经济生活中的日益边缘化。与老殖民主义有所不同的是，20世纪末新一轮的全球化是通过规则、谈判、资本和技术等“文明”与“民主”的手段来瓦解非洲的屏障的，其功效无异于“第二次殖民主义”。认识全球化给非洲带来的弊端和挑战，并不等于认可了萨米尔·阿明“依附论”中的“脱钩”思想。关键是非洲如何回应挑战，最大限度地趋利避害，争取在全球化过程中为自己谋取较为有利的国际环境和国际地位。     

从马里大学看马里高教

马里的高校各级主要领导人通常由直接选举产生;大学教师须具有博士学位,他们的收入比普通职员高;大学生由政府支付助学金,但获取学位不易;受经济条件、师资队伍、学生素质、课程设置和政治因素影响,教学质量普遍偏低.     

透视中印关系纠葛

中印关系时好时坏 ,其根源在于影响两国关系发展的纠葛没有得到根本消除。目前影响中印关系的焦点是两国边界纠纷问题、西藏问题和中巴之间的关系问题。     

Look at Prospects of East Asia Community from a Security Perspective

<正>Since the end of the Cold War, security situation in East Asia has been generally stable, but varioussecurity threats have never ceased to exist.     

One Angry Man? A New Look at an Old Film

In this satire written from the perspective of the fictional defendant in the film 12 Angry Men , the arguments used by the dissenting juror to prove the possibility that the defendant is innocent are explained in ways that actually support his guilt.     

Our New Look

The English edition of Contemporary International Relations, the academic journal of CICIR, a major think tank in the country, is taking on a new look, starting from its first issue of 2007.     

古巴导弹危机新论--关于赫鲁晓夫决策动机及结局的分析

学术界关于赫鲁晓夫在古巴部署导弹的决策动机及结局等问题的研究上 ,存在着多种偏颇的观点。笔者认为 ,苏联的决策动机 ,是以此形成苏美战略核力量方面的均衡 ,从而在此基础上实现苏美合作 ,确保苏联与美国平等的大国地位 ;古巴导弹危机的结局是以苏美的相互妥协而结束的 ,既没有绝对的胜利者 ,也没有彻底的失败者。     

China on the Horizon: India's ‘Look East’ Policy Gathers Momentum

While the world has been focusing on China's growing assertiveness in the South China Sea, Beijing and Delhi are also engaged in a quiet struggle in the contested waters. By putting up for international bidding the same oil block that India had obtained from Vietnam for exploration, China has thrown down a gauntlet.¹ By deciding to stay put in the assigned block, India has indicated it's ready to take up the Chinese challenge. At stake is Chinese opposition to India's claim to be a regional power in the larger Asian strategic setting. India is trying to emerge as a credible regional balancer but it has a long way to go.     

20世纪90年代以来国际社会对拉美投资环境的评估

良好的投资环境是吸引外国资本的重要因素,对投资环境的评估是研究FDI流入并取得预期经济效益的重要指标。代表国际组织观点的联合国贸发会议(UNCTAD)的评估方法、代表美式方法的科尔尼公司(A.T.Kearney)的评估方法和代表欧式方法的英国经济学家情报部(EIU)的商业环境评估方法对拉美地区主要国家投资环境的评估结果,将对流入拉美的FDI流量产生重要影响。20世纪90年代以来,拉美地区的投资环境不断改善,虽然与欧美、东亚相比不是投资的最佳场所,但是对于FDI仍有较大的吸引力;在拉美国家内部,各国吸收FDI的情况有较大差异,巴西、墨西哥等地区大国吸引FDI的水平要远远高于其他拉美国家。     

从地缘政治经济看大国与阿富汗内战

自古以来,阿富汗就是各民族迁徒、文化交融、贸易往来的枢纽地带.到了近代,阿富汗又成为英国与俄罗斯"两块磨石之间的一粒小麦".冷战时期,阿富汗再次成为美苏争霸的前沿阵地.抗苏战争胜利以后,阿富汗转入长期内战,喀布尔数度易手.今日塔利班虽处于优势,但要使阿富汗停息内战,真正开始和平建设,还有很长的路要走,而且塔利班的优势是否能长期维持,也值得怀疑.纵观阿富汗历史,战乱不息、动乱迭起,究其原因主要是因为阿富汗所处的战略地位特别重要,经常受到外部政治、经济、军事势力的强烈冲击.     

Another Look at Identity-Based Conflict: The Roots of Conflict in the Psychology of Consciousness

Conflict scholars and practitioners have devoted much effort to understandingwhy differences sometimes escalate into full-blown conflicts. Butnot enough attention has been paid to the psychological and physiologicalprocesses of reality formation and identity formation inherent in thenature of individual human consciousness. The author shows how thefunctions of identity and reality formation pervade human activity, andhow they are particularly connected to conflict. This theoretical constructhas a variety of implications for mediators and dispute resolution in general,which the author illustrates with a series of brief case examples.     

Iraq: A Look Back

Although the diversity of the Iraqi people has in the past hindered any sense of national identity, their suffering before and since the 2003 war has given most Iraqis a common desire to live normal lives. This desire can be a valuable asset for transformation. But the many displaced Iraqis, political prisoners, and families of executed and disappeared persons need healing, which will require considerable time. The prospects for postwar rehabilitation look poor now, with many observers claiming that civil war has already begun. Moreover, until the rule of law can be established, the country will be condemned to another generation of suffering, which will not be confined to Iraq. The current situation might have been averted, but it was not, and now Iraqis and Americans are intimately and problematically linked.     

Balancing Theory versus Fact, Stasis versus Change: A Look at Some Introductions to International Relations

Do dramatic events in international relations (IR) signal fundamental changes in political behavior? How do international relations texts address change, and what are the implications of textbook design for the way that we teach undergraduate introductions to the field? This article provides an initial inquiry into these questions by surveying a sample of five international relations texts. Rather than seek to pick the best book, the article examines the methods by which the textbook authors balance theory versus facts, as well as stasis versus change, in formulating introductory frameworks. This analysis is motivated by way of a general comparison of the sample texts with Organski's (1958) text, World Politics . Finally, the author discusses the strengths and weaknesses of different balancing strategies, and the implications of these strategies for teaching introductions to international relations.     

从《唐诗绝句演歌》看中越文学交流

唐诗在越南的传播深远而持久,现在河内还有“唐诗协会”及“汉喃诗会”等颇有影响的文学团体。可以说,越南人一直没有停止过对唐诗的学习、翻译和介绍,出版的书籍也不少。不过,最近由胡志明市综合出版社出版的《唐诗绝句演歌》却令唐诗爱好者和研究者耳目一新。《唐诗绝句演歌》的原文是汉喃对照的,共包含56首唐诗,是一百多年前越南的无名诗人从大量唐诗中精选并译成喃字文的六八体诗集。以往越南人翻译出版的唐诗都是使用国语字即现代拉丁字母文字的,喃字文本似乎这是第一本。北京大学颜保教授在巴黎法国图书馆收集到了这一珍贵的文献,进行…     

从墨西哥湾漏油事件看“英美特殊关系”

墨西哥湾漏油事件发生后,美国对英国态度强硬,在英国国内激起强烈反响,“英美特殊关系”遭遇新挑战,暴露出其脆弱性的一面。但基于政治、经济、安全合作等多方面利益考虑,双方并不乐见该事件上升至影响传统盟友关系的层面,“英美特殊关系”更趋现实。     

Legislative Foundations of U.S.–Taiwan Relations: A New Look at the Congressional Taiwan Caucus

Taiwan remains central to peace and stability in U.S.–China relations, and to prospects for democracy and prosperity in the Far East. The Taiwan Relations Act assigns to the U.S. Congress a greater role in the formulation of U.S. policy toward Taiwan than it exercises in other areas of foreign policy. Within the U.S. House of Representatives, the only organization that is explicitly supportive of a robust U.S.–Taiwan relationship is the Congressional Taiwan Caucus. Yet there exists, to our knowledge, no systematic empirical study of the correlates of Caucus membership. Few studies systematically analyze the factors that impel Members of Congress publicly to take positions that favor Taiwan. This paper addresses that gap with respect to the 109th Congress (2005–2006). We develop a method of analyzing Caucus membership and show that it yields new empirical findings about the micro-foundations of Taiwan policy making in Congress. Unlike previous studies, our unit of analysis is not the legislature, nor the legislative chamber, nor the parties within the chamber. We drill down further, collecting data at the level of the individual Member. For the 109th Congress, we find evidence that (1) Caucus membership is related in identifiable and quantifiable ways to left/right ideology, district demographics, personal interest and individual-level engagement with human rights. (2) Party has no independent effect on the likelihood of Caucus membership, but it does condition other factors. Put simply, Republicans and Democrats join the Caucus for different reasons. Election-induced changes in the composition of Congress may influence U.S. policy toward Taiwan. The findings presented here enhance our understanding of and ability to anticipate the nature of that influence.     

辽阳 悠然古风 蓬勃新象

乙烯裂解炉是石油化工的“龙头”装置，长期以来中国的乙烯裂解炉一直从国外引进。1987年，为结束成套引进乙烯装置技术的局面，中石化总公司决定在北方和南方各建一台乙烯裂解试验炉。“北方炉”选址在辽阳。1987年9月破土动工，1988年10月“北方炉”建成，并获得“国家重大技术装备研制特等奖”。这是中国大地上第一台自己建造的乙烯裂解炉，也为辽阳市建设现代化的芳烃基地打下了基础。