Do refugees impact voting behavior in the host country? Evidence from Syrian refugee inflows to Turkey

Public Choice - We study how individual political preferences changed in response to the influx of over 3.5 million Syrian refugees to Turkey during 2012–2016. Using a...     

Turkey’s diminishing policy options in Syria

The increase in the Islamic State's power vis-a-vis the moderate Syrian opposition has reduced Turkey’s ability to shape the course of the Syrian conflict in line with its long-term goals of uprooting the Assad regime and expanding its influence in the Middle East. ISIS's rise has also degraded Turkey's domestic security. Ankara currently appears caught between its inability to realise its regional objectives with respect to Syria and its refusal to moderate them, but may soon find political compromise unavoidable.     

Popular Mobilizations in Lebanon: From Anti-System to Sectarian Claims

In Lebanon, the Arab uprising is often analyzed through the lens of the side effects the Syrian uprising had on the country thanks to the massive refugee influx and involvement of Sunni and Shia Lebanese in Syria’s battleground. In fact, popular mobilizations happened prior to and during the current crisis as two different types of effects of the Arab uprisings at large. First, in late 2010 emerged an anti-sectarian movement that brought up an anti-system claim in line with other Arab social movements targeting authoritarian regimes and corruption. Second, the Sunni radical mobilization that started in Saida in 2011 around the popular Imam Sheikh Assir gathered resentments toward the Shia leading party Hizbullah as involved alongside the Syrian regime and, surprisingly, adopting an active minority mobilization strategy. Both movements conducted demonstrations of different types (from classic marches to on-road sit-ins) starting from a completely opposite perspective and in a very different environment: when the anti-sectarian mobilization faded, the sectarian one rose. This article will try to address the historical process of both mobilizations and assess their differences in light of several mobilization theories. It intends to raise questions about the types of actors involved, their discourses and justifications, and the contextual local and political environments.     

Political context,policy networks and policy change: the complexity of transition in Hong Kong

Abstract

Central to the debates on the transition of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty is how this process has affected change in the policy process and policy outputs. Many see policy change as a result of the evolving political environment in Hong Kong following the political transition. This article, however, adopts the notion of policy networks and argues that the analysis of policy change cannot be reduced to a simple contextual stimulus – the policy alteration model. A case study – ‘the development of civic education’ – demonstrates the importance of policy networks, as a particular structure of government and group relations in decision making, in explaining the course of policy change. It is apparent that the relationship between regime change and political liberalization, on the one hand, and established networks, on the other, tends to be complex and dialectical in Hong Kong. Despite the importance of sovereignty transition and political restructuring, the effect of contextual factors on public policy greatly depends on the nature of the network involved.     

Nomenklatura,state monopoly,and private enterprise

Using a behavioral model of political decisionmaking, it is argued that an increasing population size and/or an increasing efficiency of production in a private enterprise economy relative to a centrally planned economy may create the conditions for a self-interested nomenklatura in a Soviet-type economy to consider a transition to a market economy. This transition may be thwarted, however, by the threat for prospective private enterpreneurs of exploitation after the change of regime. Some form of political pluralism guaranteeing sufficient political influence to private entrepreneurs appears to be required for a successful transition. The analysis shows that such a combined political and economic reform can be in the interest of the nomenklatura, thereby providing an endogenous behavioral explanation for a change of regime.     

A Transition without Players: The Role of Political Parties in the Arab Revolutions

Academic scholarship regarding the role of political parties in the Arab world remains largely underdeveloped in comparison to analyses focusing on the role of political Islam or on authoritarian resilience. Although both of these fields of research contain useful paradigms for explaining aspects of the region’s political development, this overemphasis means that there is a lack of meaningful analysis of political participation. This article seeks to analyze the role of political parties in the light of regional transition processes since the Arab uprisings, claiming that the region’s political history and sociocultural makeup can help in explaining that much of the popular mobilization in the Arab world following the Arab revolutions took place outside of institutionalized politics. First, the article reviews and analyzes relevant theories of political parties. Second, the article presents a comparative analysis of existing theories and case studies of political parties being part of transition processes in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Taking this as starting point, the article, by looking at the Egyptian and Tunisian cases, demonstrates the limited role of political parties in connection with the regional transitory processes, with the ambition of presenting some relevant analytical tools as well as useful hints for further analyses of political transformation processes in the Middle East.     

The 'Preferred Plan': The Anglo-American Working Group Report on Covert Action in Syria, 1957

Taking as its central focus the contents of the September 1957 Anglo-American Working Group Report on Syria, this article examines the background to the covert action plans that were drawn up to topple the incumbent regime in Damascus. By drawing on the contents of the report, it shows how US and British officials hoped to stir up unrest within Syria and instigate border incidents that would provide a pretext for armed intervention by the pro-Western governments of Iraq and Jordan (with possible Turkish support). The article also brings to light the fact that the 'elimination' of named Syrian figures was included as a recommendation in the report. The article concludes by explaining why the report's so-called 'Preferred Plan' was never implemented and reflects on the 'special political action' culture that still prevailed in SIS during the latter 1950s.     

How Safe Do Majority Group Members,Ethnic Minorities,and Muslims Feel in Multicultural European Societies?

London elected a Muslim mayor in 2016, less than a year after Germany took the lead in welcoming Syrian refugees. What accounts, then, for political leaders’ public assertions of the death of multiculturalism and the resurgence of far-right parties? We examine the possibility that some areas of multicultural policy foster a sense of discrimination on the part of majority populations and reduce their sense of safety, putting pressure on political leaders for assurances and providing the impetus for populist political party agendas, even to the point of Brexit. Data from the Banting/Kymlicka Multiculturalism Policy Index project and from the European Social Survey allow us to explore the impact of specific areas of multicultural policy on those who identify as majority group members, ethnic minorities, and Muslims in fourteen European states. We provide a quantitative multivariate analysis of the influence of key areas of state-level multicultural policy on individuals’ sense of being in a group that is discriminated against, as well as their feelings of safety, satisfaction with life, and satisfaction with the national government. Background factors, including respondents’ education, are controlled. For each of the three groups of respondents, the article offers conclusions as to which areas of multicultural policy seem to contribute to the most adverse reactions. Our findings help to explain the backlash against multiculturalism and the shift in focus in European states toward “mainstreaming” integration programs. They also provide a contextual background for understanding the increasing sway of rightist party demands and cautions for the development of programs to counter violent extremism.     

Russian nationalism and Moscow’s violations of human rights in the Second Chechen War

Conclusion The use of nationalist discourse in the second Chechen War and the Russian violations of human rights have reconfigured Russian politics along a more nationalist direction. Certainly, this is a setback to Russia’s democratic transition process, which has been already complicated by pragmatic politicians seeking to maximize their power and wealth at the expense of masses. In the initial stage of the post-Soviet transition in Russia, the rhetoric of the international community held that Russia needed to be transformed into a law-abiding state with a “civil society.” However, the Chechen campaign undermines both the rule of law and the autonomy of civil society. The style of justification of the Chechen campaign suggests that Russia’s problems in the post-Soviet transition are not diagnosed well by the Russian political elite. By seeking to raise the appeal of nationalism, the Chechen war has further inceased uncertainty over the political orientation of the post-Soviet Russia. However, it would be unfair to blame only on Moscow for all human fights abuses in Chechnya. In fact, radical and terrorist groups in Chechnya destabilized the region to the extent that Moscow found it both necessary and easier to resort to military force. In fact, at the root of the problems in Chechnya, one could identify the difficulty of the Chechens in developing a social, cultural and political foundation for stable political structures, a foundation which could bring together the Chechens around moderate political values, and marginalize radical groups. Unfortunately, it seems that innocent civilians, regardless of their ethnic origins, will suffer from human rights abuses until such political institutions develop.     

G20 institutional transition and global tax governance

The G20 is in transition from a short-term crisis institution to long-term steering institution, adopting a new ‘G20 + established international organization’ governance approach. In this approach, the main role of the G20 is to set the agenda and build political consensus for global economic governance. The established international organization provides the technical support and facilitates proposal implementation, while the precondition for the G20 institutional transition is that the emerging economies need to participate on an equal footing with the advanced economies. The case of global tax governance is among the few success stories of the G20's institutional transition. Within the ‘G20 + OECD’ governance architecture, the G20 builds the political consensus that the profits should be taxed where they are performed, while the OECD proposes the technical Base Erosion and Profit Shifting Action Plan. In this way, the G20's political leadership and the OECD's technical advantage complement each other, making a giant leap in global tax governance.     

论高校学生思想政治教育中的“二元对立”及其超越

思想政治教育是促进高校学生全面发展的重要途径。在当代,随着中国社会转型期的到来,高校学生思想政治教育所处的环境发生了很大的变化,其中,有机遇也有挑战。直面高校学生思想政治教育中的困境、剖析背后的原因并在原有基础上实现超越,对于增进高校学生思想政治教育发展,增强高校学生思想政治教育的针对性、实效性有重大意义。     

Reforming China's Stock Market: Institutional Change Chinese Style

In this article we examine the dual-track pricing system in China's stock market since its inauguration, a legacy of its economic transition and a major source of institutional predation in the market. We then examine the share structure reform initiated in 2005 that sought to eliminate the distortion this predation had elicited. We interpret the reform push as a process of institutional change and focus on the drivers and theoretical explanations of such changes in China's stock market. We thus advance a model for understanding institutional change, Chinese style. We argue that, initially, the institutional arrangement was constructed by the dynamics of transition – the juxtaposition of the Leninist state and the emerging stock market. This provided huge incentives for state corruption in the emerging market. As the market transition proceeded, the societal and political costs of corruption and market distortion also grew, which produced a crisis that eventually attracted the attention of powerful leaders of the party state. We argue from this case that the broader political context in which specific examples of institutional change occur needs to be examined. Specifically, we argue that powerful agents who are external to given institutional environments can play an important role in institutional change, thus highlighting the political dynamics of an authoritarian state amid systemic transition and global integration.     

The Political Frame for Negotiated Capitalism: Electoral Reform and the Politics of Crisis in Japan and Sweden

This article examines the impact of political institutions on the strength of executive governments as well as the consequences of that strength for policymaking. It argues that both political changes and electoral reforms in Japan and Sweden have weakened the political frame for “negotiated” or “coordinated” decision making in these nations. In Sweden, however, the complete demolition of the old political frame has opened up opportunities and incentives for new modes of governance. In Japan, by contrast, reforms have buttressed rather than dismantled the old frame, impeding the transition to a new approach.     

The Political Economy of Transition in Post-Socialist Systems: The Case of the Baltic States

The nature of the failed socialist systems calls for a transition which is as comprehensive in its objectives as were the systems themselves before they failed. Hence, the transition to democracy in the post-socialist systems cannot be treated as separate from the transition to a market economy and national independence. The critical part of the transition is the economic reforms inasmuch as the institutions of the planned economy are the major power base for the conservative elites. To be successful, the economic transition must be able - in both the short and the long term - to command political support, to achieve social acceptance of the distributional consequences involved and to be compatible with democratic institutions. Analysis reveals that in the case of the Baltic states widespread support for the transition to a market economy can be detected and that the democratically elected governments have so far been fairly active in establishing a legal framework for transition, but appear unable to implement the necessary stabilization policy. The reforms have produced strong social protests, and the governments have been under pressure to maintain social guarantees during the period of transition. The non-Baltic minorities in particular defend previous social privileges and are distressed by their uncertain status after independence. The ultimate outcome of political and economic transition in the Baltic states, therefore, remains in doubt.     

Political Studies and Cultural Studies

This article deals with certain aspects of nationalism, minorities and transition politics in the post-communist Balkans with particular reference to Romania. After attempting to explain why nationalism constitutes a dominant feature of Balkan and — as a consequence — of Romanian political culture, it argues that the involvement of Romania's Hungarian minority in the collapse of the communist regime has been disproportionately exaggerated. Furthermore, it argues that the communist legacy is still shaping Romanian politics, emphasising the lack of substantial political reforms in a genuine liberal-democratic West European direction and arguing that Romania's transition politics does not necessarily mean democratic politics.     

Local Renewable Energy Initiatives in Germany and Japan in a Changing National Policy Environment

Our article explores the contribution of local initiatives to the creation of path dependencies for energy transition in Germany and Japan in the face of resistance from entrenched incumbents at the national level. We use a process‐tracing methodology based partly on interviews with local participants. In particular, we explore the role of local initiatives in securing “socio‐political space” for the expansion of renewable energy (RE) and in embedding themselves in “ecosystems” of public and private institutions. German energy activists were more successful than their Japanese counterparts in expanding this space and creating positive feedback in part because they were able to build horizontal networks that anchored the energy transition firmly in local communities. Although problems with grid technology have led to retrenchment in both cases, Japanese activists' reliance on vertical networks has limited their ability to weather a backlash from national government and utility actors. Our study demonstrates the interaction of political, economic/technological, and legitimation paths to energy transition and highlights the importance of the latter two.     

The Difficult Art of Classifying Regimes: The Case of Paraguay

This article deals with the difficult art of classifying political regimes. Such classifications are important since they lay the ground for a central field of research in political science, namely the causes and consequences of regime changes. The article focuses on Paraguay. which has experienced a process of transition from authoritarian to democratic rule over the past five years. Four criteria of democracy are used to evaluate the state of democracy in this country in early 1994: competitive elections and universal suffrage. broad and autonomous political participation. political freedoms and accountability of elected organs. The investigation of the Paraguayan case highlights the problems involved in using a dichotomous regime variable in empirical research. Paraguay is a democracy when it comes to freedom of speech, but hardly in term of the political situation in the countryside. It also demonstrates that the widely used Schumpeterian definition of democracy is risky in the sense that it may conceal more than it reveals about the regime under study. Finally, the article sheds light on the need for in-depth case studies for the classification of political regimes.     

Political leadership in Southern Europe: Research problems

The role played by political leaders in the transition and consolidation of Southern European democracies has not been adequately explored. This article argues that the contributions of political leaders to both processes have been particularly important. They ought, therefore, to be specifically analysed and not submerged into structural and configurative studies. More precisely, it is suggested that the leaders’ contributions can be more accurately evaluated within their political contexts, in the light of the resources available to them, with reference to the problems to be faced. However, this is not meant to encourage a country‐by‐country nor a leader‐by‐leader approach. It requires instead a proper comparative analysis. Only by so doing will the processes of transition and democratic consolidation be fully illuminated and provide useful lessons.     

Proportional representation and attitudes about politics: results from New Zealand

PR systems often are credited with producing more equitable outcomes between political parties and encouraging wider social group representation than majoritarian systems. Theory suggests that this should instill greater trust, efficacy, and faith in the political system. We assume that citizens disadvantaged by majoritarian rules (political minorities) will have a relatively greater shift toward positive attitudes about democracy following a transition from a majoritarian system to proportional representation. We employ panel data from the 1993–1996 New Zealand Election Study (NZES) to test hypotheses about the effects of electoral system change on attitudes about governmental responsiveness, trust in government, and political efficacy. We find that there is a general shift in mass opinion toward more positive attitudes on some measures of efficacy and responsiveness. Political minorities display a greater shift toward feelings of efficacy than other voters.     

《淮南子》的忧乐观及其廉政思想

《淮南子》是秦汉政治社会转型时期十分重要的思想著作，其中的“忧乐观”蕴含着丰富的廉政思想。“无失所秉，履危行险”，《淮南子》的“忧乐观”具有强烈的政治忧患意识和警醒意识，有助于政治个体实现趋利避祸、远害得益的政治目的；“杖性依神，相扶而得终始”，《淮南子》的“忧乐观”具有显著的政治调控意识和政治人格塑造意识，十分关注政治个体的心理变化；“失本则乱，得本则治”，《淮南子》的“忧乐观”具有深刻的政治批判意识和求“治”意识，试图化解各种政治发展中的危机和困境。这些重要的政治理念充实与丰富了当前中国特色社会主义的廉政文化建设，对广大党员干部提高廉政意识和廉政实践的有效性具有十分积极的历史借鉴价值。