Tensions in the Taiwan Strait

Despite China’s recent menacing rhetorical and military gestures, armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait remains unlikely in the near-term. Chinese military intimidation has failed to achieve its desired effects on the Taiwanese population, whose identity is increasingly distinct from that of mainland Chinese. It is possible, however, that a change of government in Taipei next year will lead to closer cross-strait relations.     

Ethnic Peace in the Taiwan Strait

The Taiwan Strait has often been referred to as one of the world’s most dangerous hotspots and many dire predictions have been made about a military conflict between mainland China and Taiwan, likely involving the United States. Yet, despite several crises in the Taiwan Strait and numerous war speculations, there has been no major armed conflict between Beijing and Taipei since the 1950s. How do we explain the puzzle that an expected war across the Taiwan Strait did not happen after all? This paper first examines the explanations based on military balance of power. Having found the realist/rationalist explanations less convincing, however, this study explores the explanatory power of the “ethnicity” factor. It suggests that when the Chinese society is no longer divided by ideological differences, the “ethnicity” may provide a more convincing explanation of why a military conflict has not happened in the Taiwan Strait in the past four decades. This paper also considers several counterarguments, including the neo-liberal argument of economic integration as a driving force for peace in the age of globalization. The paper concludes with a discussion of some policy implications resulting from the “ethnic peace” thesis and proposes that when actively promoted by the both sides, the Chinese ethnic identity is likely to be the most important strategic guarantee of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait for many years to come.     

Wake Up to Reality: Taiwan, the Chinese Mainland and Peace Across the Taiwan Strait

Relations between the Republic of China (ROC or Taiwan) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or Chinese mainland) have improved significantly since 2008. However, this study suggests that it will be difficult for the two sides to sustain the momentum in cross-strait relations unless Beijing—and to some extent Taipei—begin to recalibrate their relationship in a more pragmatic way and adopt some new thinking on the concepts of sovereignty and the political status of the ROC. In short, they need to figure out a way to acknowledge the fact that both the ROC and PRC exist.     

一个中国原则是两岸和平统一的基础和前提

本文阐述了我国政府解决台湾问题的方针;论述了台湾自古就是中国神圣领土的一部分,海峡两岸统一势在必行;分析了李登辉耍尽权谋搞分裂,终于落得被人民赶下台的可耻下场;论述了“台独”即意味战争,分裂就没有和平,台湾新领导人只有接受和承认一个中国的原则,放弃“台独”立场,尽快与祖国大陆进行和平统一的对话和谈判,才是正确的道路。     

社会资本:探讨两岸关系和平发展的新视角

两岸关系和平发展是一个内涵丰富的概念,全面理解两岸关系和平发展有必要进行视角切换.推动两岸关系和平发展,不能仅仅依赖公权力的作用,发掘、培育并运用社会资本将有力地克服公权力作用的先天不足.社会资本概念开拓了探讨两岸关系和平发展的新视角.     

One talk, two tables: A study of the 1998 Koo-Wang meeting across the Taiwan Strait

From October 14 to October 19, 1998, Koo Chen-fu, Chairman of the Taipei-based Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF), met his mainland counterpart, Wang Daohan, Chairman of the Beijing-based Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). This paper uses the Koo-Wang meeting to examine the question of how two divergent parties either come to terms or fail to reach agreement and what factors may be involved in their calculations. How significant are those “shadow participants”—domestic constituencies—during the push and pull process at the international negotiations? In this case study, domestic factors claimed more weight than international factors because domestic constituencies had set up strict conditions for each delegation team before the meeting. The result was more of an appearance of dialogue than an effort at sincere problem solving.     

Japan and the cross-Taiwan Strait conflict

An armed conflict between Taiwan and China is not unthinkable in the future. For historical, geographical, economic, and diplomatic reasons, Japan would not be able to stand on the sidelines. Relying on three major concepts—national interests, path dependence and balance of power, this paper explores Japan’s three possible roles in the event of a cross-Strait conflict. First, Japan could pass the buck, staying out of the conflict as much as possible and providing at most logistical and intelligence support for an American military operation. Second, it could balance power, throwing its weight behind Washington against Beijing. Finally, it could play peacemaker. At the end of the article, the author discusses several key factors that would shape Tokyo’s decision-making in the event of a cross-Strait conflict and assesses the relative probability of each option. He is the author ofExplaining Chinese Democratization (Praeger, 2000). His recent research interests include Chinese pacifism and China’s historical place in the world. For their comments, the author would like to thank anonymous reviewers, Natalie Edwards, Mei Guan, Sujian Guo, James Hsiung, Wade Hudson, Erica Johnson, Chien Liu, Andrew Needle, Anne Schotter, Steve Snow, Liang Tang, Wallace Thies, Yong Wang, and Kim Worthy.     

Tax Structure Turbulence in OECD Countries

This paper analyses whether and to what extent politiciansmanipulate tax structures strategically in order to winelections or for ideological purposes. We introduce anindicator for tax structure turbulence which measures thedegree to which a country's tax structure changes from oneyear to another. Using data on 18 OECD countries over theperiod 1965–1995, we find clear evidence of a politicalbudget cycle in national tax structures. More precisely, wefind that in election years, tax structures are changedsignificantly less than in other years. Further, thedispersion of political power significantly lowers the abilityof governments to change the tax structure. We do not,however, find any evidence of partisan budget cycles innational tax systems following political regime changes.     

Strategic rivalries around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait

The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a key commercial chokepoint that links two persistently unstable and insecure locales – Yemen and the Horn of Africa – and as a consequence faces standing challenges to its security. Turkey and the Arab states of the Gulf, as well as China and the United States, are expanding their economic and military activity in the region. This has increased the potential for diplomatic discord and strategic instability.     

Developing the Digital Content Industry in Taiwan

The average global annual growth rate of digital content products has grown exponentially. This is because of the technology advancement, cost reduction, and availability of the enabling technologies, e.g., digital processing, digital storage, and digital telecommunications. The development of the digital content industry (DCI) requires a strong cultural background, creative ideas, respect of intellectual property rights, and telecommunications infrastructure, which are all dependent on government supportive policies. This study summarizes the government policies, progress, and obstacles in the development of Taiwan's DCI and compares these subjects with other countries, including the United States, EU countries, Japan, and Korea. In this paper, Taiwan's DCI opportunities and challenges will be discussed, and strategies and recommendations will be provided, based on Taiwan's unique resources and competitive advantages.     

Rivalry between Taiwan and the PRC in Latin America

Latin America and the Caribbean have been a major battleground of the “foreign policy war” between Taiwan and the PRC over international legitimacy, and recognition. This paper analyzes the growing rivalry between China and Taiwan and its implications. The first part of the paper examines the importance of Latin America and the Caribbean for both Beijing and Taipei. The second section explores political aspects of their involvement in the region. The third part assesses how Beijing and Taipei use economic diplomacy to meet their diplomatic objectives in Latin America. The fourth section examines the implications of the increasing rivalry between Taipei and Beijing in the region. This study is supported by a Fulbright scholarship and a faculty development grant from Merrimack College. The views in the paper are entirely mine and should not be ascribed to the institutions acknowledged above. I would like to express my appreciation to Wang Hsiu-chi at Tamkang University in Taiwan who provided me with excellent facilities during my field trip to Taiwan. Author would like to thank Curtis Martin, Lowell Dittmer, Xiaogang Deng, Antonio Hsiang, Tchen Tchiang, Baohui Zhang, Baogang Guo, Guoli Liu, Ping Li, and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments on earlier versions of this paper. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the International Symposium on National Identity and the Future Cross-Strait Relations, University of Macau, in December, 2004.     

The December 1998 elections in Taiwan

The 5 December 1998 elections in Taiwan mark the first time that the national city mayoral elections and Legislative Yuan elections were held simultaneously. There was an increase in the number of candidates and seats for the Legislative Yuan election compared to the 1995 election; the Legislative Yuan sits for a three-year term. The mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaoshiung were the second direct popular elections featuring two well-known incumbents and two tough challengers vying for the four-year post. All Taiwanese elections in the 1990s were seen as referendums on the fate of the long-ruling Kuomintang, but many political commentators saw the 1999 elections as a ‘dress rehearsal’ for the presidential election in 2000.     

Taiwan and the geopolitics of late development

Abstract

Through a case study of Taiwan, this paper seeks to address recent debates surrounding the transformation of developmental states in East Asia. Whilst a number of authors have cited the Taiwanese state as being both cautious and resilient in the midst of global restructuring, this paper seeks to critically engage with such arguments by highlighting the dynamic and mutually constitutive relations between the forms of social relations that underpin late development and the wider geopolitical system in which such development occurs. Specifically, Taiwanese industrialisation can be viewed as an outcome of the US intervention in the Chinese civil war and subsequent exclusion of China from the regional political economy in the period between the Korean and Vietnam Wars. The Kuomintang (KMT)'s retreat to Taiwan established the basis for the autonomous developmental state, and the US underpinned this state through military protection, aid and access to its own domestic market. However, the relative decline of US hegemony and the readmission of China into the international system have posed significant challenges to Taiwan's developmental state. The US sought to redress its trade imbalance with East Asia by placing pressure on Taiwan to liberalise its political economy. Furthermore, the very process of development itself served to undermine the autonomy of the state as it came under pressure from new social forces. Taiwan has more recently been faced with a dilemma of closer integration with the mainland or the maintenance of its de facto economic and political independence at the risk of becoming isolated from the global trading system.     

Farmer Associations and Rural Development in Taiwan

This paper explores a unique Public-Private Partnership （PPP） formed by the government and Taiwanese Farmer Associations. Particularly, it will investigate a pattern of the PPP that has successfully promoted rural development and agricultural modernization in Taiwan since the 1950s. TFA＇s （Taiwanese Farmer Associations） establishment inherently came from Japanese Cooperatives before World War II. The Performances of those farmer organizations are combinations of economic, social, and educational synergies. The rural development experiences in Taiwan demonstrate that success of rural modernization is carried out by a special PPP. First, this paper discusses the establishment and development of farmer cooperative organizations in East Asian societies. Particularly, it focuses on collaborative mold and process in which both the government and TFA have been extensively involved. A specific cooperative apparatus between the government and TFA functioning and operating as a perfect PPP has been formed under administrative guidance of the state. Thirdly, this paper looks at input and various supports in financial and policy perspectives by the public sector. Fourthly, the paper discusses legal framework, administrative apparatus, and governance pattern for TFA. Fifthly, the significant findings of paper illustrate that a specific PPP successfully involving in rural modernization in Taiwan is derived from the state＇ guidance that properly regulates a collaboration between the government and TFA. The so-called East Asian model of PPP, as revealing in agricultural modernization and rural community development in Taiwan, may become valuable experiences for most of developing countries.     

略论"文化台独"

"文化台独"是一种以确立台湾独立性为价值取向,以"去中国化"为特征,为"台独"服务的社会文化思潮。从其发展趋势来看,影响已浸入到台湾社会的各个阶层,危害性也越来越大,一旦成为台湾的主流意识,必将对两岸的和平统一造成严重的危害。因此,必须高度关注,坚决遏制"文化台独"思潮的蔓延。中华文化与台湾文化同出一脉,源远流长。民进党当局推行"本土化""、去中国化,"这是要从根本上割断台湾与祖国的联系,是不得人心的,其图谋也是不能得逞的。     

State transformation and the domestic politics of foreign aid in Taiwan

Abstract

This article challenges the dominant narrative that overlooks the role of domestic factors in Taiwanese foreign aid in favour of politics cast at the cross-Strait and international levels. It examines the emergence and effects of partisan politics on Taipei's foreign aid policies, including aid budgets and the motivation for providing foreign aid. It argues that, rather than the cross-Strait conflict as such, it was contests and rivalries among Taiwan's political parties and government agencies – underpinned by ongoing projects of state building – that shaped the variable objectives, policies and processes of Taipei's foreign aid-giving.     

Policy networks in South Korea and Taiwan during the democratic era

This article examines policy networks in South Korea and Taiwan during the democratic era. Policy networks are the core mechanisms of developmentalism in the two countries. However, democratization affects policy coordination differently in the two countries. By focusing on policy networks as their core mechanisms of developmentalism, this article shows that the fate of developmental states in the democratic period is not fixed. The Korean state fails to maintain policy networks, thus becoming less developmental. Its economic policies become inconsistent, short-term-oriented, over-politicized and poorly monitored. Meanwhile, Taiwan further develops policy networks, so becoming more developmental. These two contrasting experiences of network management and policy choice help account for the differential impacts of the financial crisis on South Korea and Taiwan.