The PLO in the world order

Avraham Sela and Moshe Ma'oz (eds), The PLO and Israel: From Armed Conflict to Political Solution 1964–1994. London: Macmillan, 1997. Pp.x + 310, index. £30 (cloth). ISBN 0–333–72370–8.

Roland Dannreuther, The Soviet Union and the PLO. London: Macmillan, 1998. Pp.ix + 222, index, biblio. £45 (cloth). ISBN 0–312–17223–0.     

“钻石模型”视角下拉美保险业的战略机遇

钻石模型是近年来蒙代尔不可能三角理论在二维线性空间拓维基础上发展起来的开放经济模型。本文通过钻石模型的理论演变,阐明该模型如何演绎出一个与金融保险相关的创新空间。这一模型主要是建立在对发展中国家,尤其是新兴市场国家实证分析的基础之上,而其中拉丁美洲又占有重要地位。结合拉美保险市场的现状与未来,本文认为如果拉美国家在后危机时代能够依据钻石模型正确定位金融发展战略,就等于把握住了保险业发展的战略机遇;拉丁美洲国家同中国之间的货币互换诉求恰是可供选择的金融战略方向之一,此举将有利于拉美保险市场的发展。     

美国中东政策的战略支点——土耳其

土耳其是中东地区大国,地跨欧、亚两大洲,连接黑海和地申海,也是多种文明的交汇地,无论在冷战还是后冷战时期都有十分重要的地缘政治意义。二战后美国与土耳其关系发展很快,土耳其成为美国在中东地区实施扩张势力范围和遏制苏联政策的重要“战略支点”之一。美国中东战略中许多重要举措都是通过土耳其这个“支点”展开的。土耳其与美国等西方国家的关系并非只有融合、亲密的一面,还有不断产生矛盾、出现一些“不和谐声音”的另一面。新世纪土耳其调整外交战略“向东看”,但依然是美国中东政策的战略支点之一,并能“东西逢源”,无疑将在中东地区发挥更大作用。     

On the study of legal order in future world systems

The disarmament of rival nations can only take place when all countries involved are made better off and a feasibility criterion is also satisfied. Disarmament is more probable when nations face a similar trade off in the acquisition of weapons, when developments in military capabilities can be speedily and accurately verified, and when the existing weapon systems are easily reproducible. A successful disarmament also requires that the speed of the disposition of arms be neither too fast nor too slow.     

构建中美核战略稳定性框架:非对称性战略平衡的视角

权力转移导致中美战略竞争加剧,维护中美战略稳定成为攸关中美关系发展以及世界和平与稳定的重大问题。构建中美核战略稳定性框架是实现中美战略稳定的基石。传统战略稳定理论主要基于美苏两大对称性阵营的敌对关系,对于不对称性和动态权力转移背景下的中美核战略稳定性的理论解释力和实践指导性不足。基于非对称战略平衡视角,中美核战略稳定性框架应以保证中国第二次核打击能力为基础。在机制层面,中美要加强交流、协商和谈判以建立相关机制,逐渐形成中美核战略关系的共识,推动达成稳定中美核战略关系的协议、条约等法律性承诺,从而构建稳定中美核战略关系的政治框架。在结构层面,中国无需谋求与美国对等的核力量。统筹考虑军事效用和政治效果,构筑包括核实力、核威慑决心和核威慑信息传递的完备核威慑战略,确保处于弱势的中国拥有对美国进行核反击造成美不可承受损失的能力,是实现中美核战略稳定的关键。     

Negotiation and the new world disorder

Book reviews in this article:
Negotiation and the New World Disorder James G. Blight Andrew W. Lynch     

金砖合作面对的世界秩序和全球化挑战

现存世界秩序向何处去?现阶段的全球化向何处去?这是当今世界,也是金砖合作面对的两大根本挑战。金砖合作能否在维持世界秩序、创造新的世界秩序上发挥关键作用?金砖合作能否矫正全球化、创造有意义的"新发展"?本文提出了一些战略建议:金砖合作应该就世界秩序和全球化议题举行高峰会议,以超越目前的"务实合作"。在经济和金融上,金砖的"新发展银行"和"应急储备安排"等正在建设和运行的新兴国际金融(发展融资)机构要成为以"新发展"为目标进行全球经济治理的实验。在和平与安全上,金砖合作也要进一步制度化,成为以世界和平为目标的全球安全治理实验——全球协调。     

Natural disaster in Japan: implications for world financial markets

This contribution focuses on the consequences of the natural disaster in Japan for the world financial markets as seen around half a year after the nuclear accident happened. It, thus, focuses on expectations about what would happen in macroeconomics terms later on. For this purpose, it examines how deep the slump in growth was, to what extent Japanese suppliers are integrated into international production chains, and how much the world economy would, thus, be affected. Moreover, it assesses what the economic implications of a forced withdrawal from nuclear energy as a reaction to the disaster would have been. Finally, it elaborates on the consequences of the natural disaster in Japan for the world financial markets and for the development of national debt.     

CIA plot, socialist conspiracy, or new world order? the origins of the Bilderberg group, 1952-55

Ever since its first meeting in 1954, the Bilderberg Group, a secretive annual conclave of Atlantic elites, has attracted conspiracy theories. Some observers have perceived it as a CIA plot to take the teeth out of the European left, others as a socialist conspiracy to undermine American capitalism. Recently it has been accused of being the seat of a hidden global government, the 'New World Order'. The article draws on newly available archival sources to reconstruct the early history of the Group and test these conspiracy theories, concluding that Bilderberg was neither an entirely American nor European invention, but rather the product of a complex process of Atlanticist interaction.