Analysis: Trade openness,economic development and civil war onset in the post-colonial world, 1950–1992

This article reinvestigates the effects of trade openness and economic development on civil war. While some scholars argue that economic openness increases domestic turmoil, others claim that it promotes domestic peace. Focusing on trade openness as a key indicator of economic openness, hypotheses derived from previous research are tested against data for 83 states in the post-colonial world from 1950 to 1992. Results show that increased trade openness and economic development reduce the risk of civil war. The effect of trade is slightly greater with higher economic development. Civil war is more likely with oil export dependence, increased militarization, mixed regimes, mountainous terrain, and increased ethnic fractionalization.     

新军人集团执政以来缅甸的经济改革和经济发展（1988—2008）

本文探讨了缅甸近20年来的经济改革和经济发展,认为在缅甸军政府执政的第一个10年（1988—1997）改革力度较大,但1997年东南亚金融危机后的几年中改革一度停滞不前,进入21世纪后才又逐渐恢复推进改革的势头,但制约缅甸改革和发展的一些基本因素仍然存在。尽管改革取得了一些成效,经济社会有所发展,重要农产品、电力生产、石油天然气产量、引进外资、外贸总量、外汇储备总额等都创造了最好的水平或最高记录,但缅甸经济中根深蒂固的结构性失常和宏观经济不平衡尚未得到纠正,缅甸积贫积弱的状况并没有得到改变,仍然是东南亚最为贫困和发展水平最低的国家之一。缅甸经济要走上稳健、快速的发展道路,还有待深化改革,扩大开放,解决宏观经济失常等问题。     

Does the IMF cause civil war? A comment

The global economic downturn has heightened concerns about intervention by global financial institutions and political stability. One prominently-published article purports to show that signing on to an IMF structural adjustment program (SAP) increases the risk of civil war, Hartzell et al. (International Organization 64:339–56, 2010). The authors claim that IMF SAPs push liberalization, which hurts people badly enough that they foment civil war. We advance the debate by critically examining their theoretical and empirical evidence, particularly questioning their crucial assumptions about the impact of IMF programs on the economic environment in terms of who actually wins and loses from liberalization and who might be in a position to rebel. Using their data, we find that signing on to an IMF program predicts the onset of a civil war negatively if one uses a lower threshold of 25 deaths when defining civil war. These results suggest that the operationalization of the IMF variable as well as the use of large-scale civil war (1,000 deaths and above) simply capture the effect of ongoing conflict rather than the effects of liberalization. After extending the time period under study and making only minor changes to operationalization, we find that at no time does IMF involvement successfully predict the onset of a civil war.     

东北亚区域林业经贸合作发展战略的有效实施

东北亚区域林业经贸合作是区域内各国可以先行的和最有潜力的合作领域。东北亚区域林业经贸合作应当走“区域发展、梯度重点推进”的实施战略,要以中俄森林资源合作开发利用作为推动整个区域林业经贸合作的切入点,以林业直接投资合作的启动为现实起点,以中俄林业经贸合作作为整个东北亚区域林业经贸合作的突破口来带动东北亚区域林业经贸合作的发展。     

中国西藏与南亚边贸问题探讨

本文分析了中国西藏与南亚边贸发展的状况,探讨了影响中国西藏与南亚边贸攀升的主要因素,在此基础上针对性的提出了进一步扩大中国西藏与南亚边境贸易的若干措施。     

Resource Curse in Reverse: How Civil Wars Influence Natural Resource Production

Conflict scholars have argued that natural resources, such as oil, diamonds, and gemstones, may increase the chances for civil wars because rebels can sustain their organizations by looting resources and because certain types of resources, such as oil, create weaker state governments that are less capable of putting down insurgencies. Natural resources like oil also raise the value of capturing the state through war. However, empirical studies typically treat natural resources as exogenous variables, failing to consider the possibility that war alters the production levels of various natural resources. This endogenous relationship may help to explain the inconsistent empirical results linking natural resources and civil war onset. This article examines the two-way relationship between natural resources and civil war, focusing on oil, diamonds, and fisheries. The empirical findings suggest that most of the relationships run in the direction from war to resources, with no significant effects of resources on the onset of civil war. States with civil wars experience lower oil and diamond production, while marine fisheries production recovers in civil war–torn states.     

Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence

Over half of all civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997 were followed by at least one if not more episodes of civil war. We present a model to explain which characteristics of a civil war and the post-war environment make civil war more or less likely to recur. We test this model with data on civil wars that began and ended between 1944 and 1997. Findings suggest that civil wars are less likely to recur following rebel victories and peace agreements supported by peacekeeping forces. Post-war economic development also reduces the probability of civil war recurrence, and the longer the peace can be sustained, the less likely civil war is to recur. These effects hold regardless of whether the previous war was ethnically based or not, and whether it was secessionist or revolutionary.     

Willingness and Opportunity: A Study of Domestic Terrorism in Post-Cold War South Asia

Domestic terrorism, as a form of intrastate violence, has varied widely in South Asia along with the post-Cold War period of global economic integration and political openness. How are these two phenomena—economic integration and emergence of democracies—related to domestic terrorism in South Asia? I argue that resorting to terrorism is a rational choice when individuals'/groups' cost of heterogeneity—deprivation from public goods due to geographical and ideological distance—increases; opportunity is provided by democratization and integration into the global economy. The testable hypotheses derived from the theory are empirically tested on a dataset of five South Asian countries for the time period between 1990 and 2007. The results show that both minority discrimination and presence of unconsolidated democratic institutions increase terrorism in the highly heterogeneous South Asian countries. International trade in the presence of minority discrimination increases homegrown terrorism, but foreign direct investment neither increases nor decreases such incidents.     

新形势下黑龙江省对俄贸易发展研究

黑龙江省地处东北地区北部,位于东北亚地区的中心地带,具有参与和推动东北亚经济合作的良好区位优势。与俄罗斯边境线长达3045公里,拥有25个国家级开放口岸,可辐射俄罗斯远东及东北亚地区,在发展对俄罗斯地缘经济联系上前景广阔。目前,黑龙江省与俄罗斯在相互投资方面存在大型投资项目少、投资规模小、对双边贸易的带动作用不大等主要问题,在外贸信贷、保险、结算和仲裁、信息领域的合作水平不高,使双方经贸合作难以突破。应指出的是,双方贸易发展潜力很大。     

东亚各国经济周期同步性发展的现实条件分析

伴随着东亚地区生产要素的加速流动和区域经济一体化的进程,各经济体之间相互依存和互为影响的关系愈益显现。本文从区域产业内贸易、对外直接投资流动、区域金融发展与合作、区域贸易安排的视角分析东亚经济周期同步性发展的现实条件,并认为东亚各国经济周期同步性逐渐形成。     

拉美国家的贸易开放度研究

贸易开放是经济现代化的基本特征之一,GATT以及WTO等一些国际经济秩序的基本构成机制进一步推动了全球的贸易自由化,背离这一秩序或者趋势的结果是无法从他国的市场开放中获得益处。在出口导向战略实施了多年之后,目前拉美主要国家的贸易开放到底达到了一个什么样的程度正是我们所困惑的问题。本文以亚洲7个国家作为参照组,研究了1995年至2009年拉美7个国家(阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利、墨西哥、秘鲁和委内瑞拉)的贸易开放程度。主要结论是,最近10多年,7个拉美国家的贸易开放度有了显著而稳步的上升,但与亚洲国家相比,拉美国家的贸易开放程度普遍略低。本文对于研究拉美国家经济开放程度与经济增长、国际贸易体制以及国内产业发展之间的关系,特别是中拉经贸关系发展前景等问题都具有基础性和阶段性的意义。     

Why should trade between Central Asia and China continue to expand?

Trade volume between Central Asia and China has tripled since 2002. This study, which is based on Chinese sources, explains the reasons for this expansion in trade. Even if numerous obstacles remain, Government development policy in China’s western regions has induced trade growth between Xinjiang and Central Asia. Trade flows mainly consist of three blocks: economic activities of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, commerce conducted by traders of the coastal province of Zhejiang, based in Xinjiang, and petty trade notably between Kazakhstan and Xinjiang.     

Lincoln's Gamble: Fear of Intervention and the Onset of the American Civil War

Few studies consider how civil war onset can be influenced by third parties and by the belligerents’ perceptions of third party actions. I show that the American Civil War, a war largely ignored by civil war scholars, sheds insights into how anticipation of third party intervention influences the decision-making process within the target state and how the possibility of third party intervention can influence the onset and escalation of civil war. The American Civil War is an especially interesting case for exploring the role of third parties in civil war initiation since, unlike most cases considered by the existing civil war literature, the American Civil War is an instance of nonintervention: the third parties (the European powers in this case) mattered despite staying out of the conflict. Specifically, I argue that fear of foreign recognition (particularly by the British) played an underappreciated (if not the decisive) role in the earliest stages of the American Civil War by influencing Lincoln's decision to authorize the first major battle of the war at Manassas Junction, Virginia.     

Out of the shadows or into the dark? Economic openness,IMF programs,and the growth of shadow economies

The existence of shadow economies is an important, yet understudied, issue for international political economy and development. This study examines how two distinct types of international economic engagement—economic openness and participation in International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs—affect the growth of shadow (informal) sectors. We theorize that increased economic openness will reduce the size of countries’ shadow sectors. More specifically, we posit that eliminating market-distorting trade barriers will decrease the incentives for shadow sector activities such as smuggling. Additionally, we posit that increased participation in global production and supply chains is likely to lead to a positive, “climb to the top” effect on states’ regulatory and labor policies that enhance the prospective benefits associated with formal sectors. Conversely, we argue that participation in IMF structural adjustment programs can lead to great shadow sector activity as IMF-imposed structural conditions might cause significant near-term economic hardship and degrade states’ regulatory capacity. The results from a panel of 145 countries from 1971 to 2012 indicate that economic openness reduces the size of the shadow economy, while participation in IMF programs is significantly related to a larger shadow economy. These findings have important implications for understanding how the divergent forms of international economic engagement might affect shadow economies.     

The international dimension of democratization: testing the parsimonious approach

This article examines the importance of the international context on regime change. It provides evidence that geographic proximity to the European Union (EU) does not result in the spread of democracy. In contrast, communication and cooperation between EU actors and sub-national regions contributes significantly to the development of democracy in these regions. Considering the role of EU projects, investments and trade in regime transition—measured through indicators of civil society, political openness, freedom of speech and economic liberalization—this article demonstrates that international context may have a positive influence on the diffusion of democracy at a regional, sub-national level. This finding has substantial implications for the literature on international relations and globalization studies. It suggests that the emergence of ‘new’ regions through communication and cooperation takes place through two seemingly contradictory but mutually reinforcing processes: regionalization (territorial disintegration/federalization) and integration (through communication and cooperation).     

以港口业合作促进东北亚区域经济一体化

区域经济一体化已成为各国适应经济全球化的优先选择,而东北亚区域经济一体化发展缓慢。海运是完成国际贸易的主要手段,东北亚地区各国对外贸易总量的85%以上依靠水运完成,港口业对城市和区域发展的重要性更加突出。因此,应充分发挥东北亚地区港口业合作对区域经济一体化的作用,优化港口组群结构,增强合作机制,构建区域物流网络体系,形成良性循环,共同促进东北亚港口业,推进区域一体化进程。     

斯里兰卡经济现状与前景

斯里兰卡经济已连续3年取得6%左右的增长,但仍然存在很多问题:内战旷日持久,通货膨胀居高不下,财政赤字有增无减,旅游业受战争重创。斯国经济发展的前景在于:结束国内长期的内战,全球经济摆脱当前的危机。     

Study on Xinjiang’s bilateral trade using a gravity model

Based on the basic trade gravity model and Xinjiang’s practical situation, new explanatory variables (GDP, GDPpc and SCO) are introduced to build an augmented trade gravity model adapted to Xinjiang’s bilateral trade. From the empirical analysis of this model, it proposes that these three variables affect the Xinjiang’s bilateral trade positively. Whereas, geographic distance is found a significant factor influencing Xinjiang’s bilateral trade negatively. Then, the augmented trade gravity model analyzes the present trade situation between Xinjiang and its main trade partners in 2004 quantitatively. It indicates that Xinjiang cooperates with its most trade partners successfully in terms of present economic scale and developing level. Xinjiang has established successful trade partnership with Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, East Asia and South Asia. However, the foreign trade development with West Asia is much slower. Finally, some suggestions on developing Xinjiang's foreign trade are put forward.     

东亚贸易演变与产业结构调整

一、东亚经济发展政策的转变 （一）进口替代政策 从二战后到20世纪60年代末，东亚地区整体上处于恢复经济、完善经济结构阶段，重点发展工业，实行进口替代型的工业发展道路。经过20多年的发展，东亚地区建立了比较完整的工业体系，摆脱了对外国产品的严重依赖，     

俄东部交通基础设施大建设对黑龙江省与俄经贸合作的影响

俄罗斯70%的领土位于亚洲,亚太地区经济的快速发展对俄罗斯产生了重要影响,因此俄政府愈来愈重视与亚太毗邻的东部地区的经济发展。但长期以来,由于政策缺乏连续性、资金投入不足等原因,俄东部地区经济发展缓慢。而制约其经济发展的一个主要因素就是交通基础设施落后。目前,俄领导人已意识到要发展经济必先大力改善交通基础设施状况。黑龙江省积极参与俄东部地区交通基础设施大建设必然会提升对俄经贸合作水平。