论我国汇率制度及人民币国际化的抉择

近些年来先后有许多新兴市场国家爆发了金融危机，包括东南亚国家、韩国、俄罗斯、巴西和阿根廷等。这些国家爆发金融危机有一个根本性的标志，就是放弃了固定的或有限浮动的汇率制度。这说明实行固定的或有限浮动的汇率制度是导致新兴市场国家发生金融危机的根本原因之一。我国也属于新兴市场国家，也实行钉住美元的有管理的浮动汇率制度，是否也存在严重的汇率风险，这是值得关注的问题。不仅如此，新兴市场国家究竟应实行何种汇率制度才能确保金融秩序的长期稳定?相应地我国今后应选择何种汇率制度才能有效防范和化解金融风险?人民币是否要国际化?东亚国家是否应建立货币联盟，催生亚元?这些也是需要深入研究的重大现实问题。本就这类问题作出了系统分析和探讨，以求抛砖引玉。     

金融危机对我国经济增长的影响及应对策略

金融危机通过贸易领域传导至我国,对我国出口、投资、消费产生了较大的影响,从而抑制了我国的经济增长。我国经济增长除受到外因作用而放缓之外,还受到我国自身经济结构不合理、发展方式不科学的制约。面对金融危机的挑战,政府应加快推进经济结构调整、切实转变经济发展方式,促使消费、投资、出口协调拉动经济增长,以保持我国经济健康平稳可持续增长。     

The Impact of EU Membership on UK Economic Performance

The relatively deep level of economic integration achieved by the European Union (EU) has been highly successful in increasing trade for its members. Larger trade volumes have had positive effects on productivity levels. In the case of the United Kingdom the gain from joining the EU was probably around 10 per cent of GDP and this far exceeded any costs of membership, possibly by a ratio of seven to one. A major reason for this outcome was a significant increase in competition as protectionism was abandoned. The economic implications of Brexit are much less clear because there are many permutations of what it would entail. Future trade barriers rather than budgetary transfers are the main issue. Brexit could be quite costly if the UK left the single market and used its new policy space badly. Ironically, while Brexit clearly appeals to free traders, it could end up empowering protectionists.     

经济增长对要素禀赋变化的影响

本文梳理了资本积累、经济增长与资本丰裕度的动态变化之间的理论关系.要素禀赋决定于长期的资本积累和经济增长条件,而资本积累决定于经济的储蓄、投资意愿以及生产的效率.新古典的经济增长与贸易理论认为,长期中,一国的要素禀赋和比较优势完全由资本投资的数量,即由偏好和储蓄率决定.林毅夫和李荣林从生产函数的角度阐述了发展中国家使资本的丰裕度增加,从而改变贸易模式的途径.而所谓的"长期赫克歇尔俄林定理"则认为,要素禀赋差异不仅决定了静态的贸易模式,而且要素禀赋的初始状态决定了长期的比较优势.     

From Gerontocracy to Gerontonomia: The Politics of Economic Stagnation in Ageing Democracies

One in five people in the EU and nearly one in ten in the world are now aged 65 and over. This demographic transformation is one of the great successes of the twentieth century and has profoundly altered the composition of electorates in many democracies. This article explores whether and how this population ageing reshapes the relationship between democracy and capitalism. I argue that ageing changes the economic and policy priorities of a growing share of democracies’ electorates in ways that incentivise elected governments to prioritise certain social policies and economic outcomes, such as pensions and low inflation, at the expense of others, most notably greater social investments and pursuing economic growth. As a result, gerontocracies increasingly lead to what I call a ‘gerontonomia’ characterised by democratically sustained economic stagnation.     

From disguised protectionism to rewarding regulation: The impact of trade‐related labor standards in the Dominican Republic

Policymakers in the Dominican Republic have responded to foreign pressure by rewriting their labor laws and revitalizing their labor ministry. What are the likely consequences? Is aggressive labor law enforcement more likely to protect vulnerable workers from abuse and exploitation or to undermine their ability to compete for labor‐intensive employment in an unforgiving world economy? And what are the broader implications of the answer? I address these questions by analyzing qualitative as well as quantitative data on workplace regulators empowered by the Dominican Republic in response to trade‐related labor standards imposed by the United States and find that they reconcile social protection with economic adjustment by simultaneously discouraging “low road” employment practices like informality, union‐busting, and the exploitation of child labor, and encouraging “high road” alternatives that link firms, farms, and families, on the one hand, to public educational, training, and financial institutions, on the other. The result is a potentially inclusive alternative to the repressive industrial relations regime that fueled export‐led development – and the East Asian “miracle” in particular – in the late twentieth century.     

我国外汇储备增长的影响因素与实证检验

近年来,我国外汇储备呈现快速增长态势。本文从分析我国外汇储备快速增长的原因出发,利用协整分析方法对影响我国外汇储备的因素进行实证研究。结果表明,影响我国外汇储备的因素主要包括汇率、国内生产总值、外贸开放度等,而外资开放度和外债余额对外汇储备的影响不显著。     

国外关于经济增长的政治学研究综述

本文运用文献分析法,从政策选择与政治条件两个维度来梳理国外关于经济增长的政治学理论,并在各维度内对已有文献的观点进行分类归纳。结合文献梳理的成果,笔者提出关于经济增长的政治学研究范式的一些思考。     

From Catch-all Politics to Cartelisation: The Political Economy of the Cartel Party

Adaptations to coordination problems endogenous to political parties have established the cartel party as the emerging equilibrium type in modern Western democracies. However, these factors alone are insufficient to maintain such an equilibrium given the threat of defection. That threat is mitigated by three factors: historical changes in party form, systemic changes in the global economy and changed ideas about governments. Together, these changes produce both a cartel of parties and the cartel party organisational form, without requiring overt conspiracy. These speculations are mapped onto actual experiences of the UK, the US and Sweden. The theory of the cartel party is advanced by emphasis on the 'cost of production' of policies and the constriction of the policy-space over which parties compete. We also explain why a cartel of parties might be stable, notwithstanding the temptation to defection often attributed to cartels as multi-player prisoners' dilemmas.     

The Impact of the Economy on Presidential Elections Throughout US History

Political Behavior - As numerous studies in the US and elsewhere document, voters often hold incumbents accountable for recent economic circumstances. However, our knowledge of the conditions that...     

Subregional economic zones,politics and development: The Philippine involvement in the East ASEAN Growth Area (EAGA)

In Southeast and East Asia there has been a recent trend towards setting up subregional economic zones often known as ‘growth triangles’. This article examines the concept of subregional economic zones and then focuses on the history of the recently established East ASEAN Growth Area (EAGA) locating it in the wider Philippine policy context. The article also assesses the likely contribution of EAGA to Mindanao's future development, paying particular attention to the political issues which could impinge on the attainment of economic prosperity.     

理性预期与启动中国经济

理性预期理论旨在从心理学角度分析经济主体的理性预期对经济发展的影响。作认为,随着市场经济体制的建立,经济主体对未来经济形势扔预期已在很大程度上影响了我国经济发展状况。因此,本以理性预期理论为基础,从心理预期角度分析了制约我国当前经济进入趋势性回升的因素,并提出了政策建议。     

我国经济发展中的能源约束问题

经济增长和能源需求之间存在着高度的正相关关系.20世纪90年代以来,我国已经由能源净出口国转变为净进口国,我国的能源供给已经从总量和结构两方面对经济高速发展形成需求约束.要根本解决这一矛盾,既需要走新型工业化道路,依靠科技进步节能降耗,又需要加强油气勘探开发和管网建设,同时要积极参与国际能源市场的竞争,以改善能源结构,扩大总量供给.     

社会交换论视角下的腐败成因解析

社会交换论对描述和解释中国社会转型期腐败发生的原因、过程和对策提供了分析框架。腐败是在交换结构制约下的理性选择行为,交换结构存在的弊端提供了腐败发生的外在机会,刺激并诱发个体的腐败动机,两者结合促成了现实腐败行为的发生,即通过形形色色的资源交换实现了腐败收益,构成了交换动机——交换结构——交换资源三位一体的腐败发生发展的过程链条,从动态角度揭示了腐败的形成原因。各种腐败现象的本质是资源的非正当转移,这种转移的后果是个人和特定集团获益,而公共利益受损。为此,要控制腐败,就要控制腐败交换的动机和交换结构,斩断腐败交换的利益链条,这就需要构建并实施教育、制度、监督并重的惩治和预防腐败的体系。     

教师成长与发展的和谐环境研究

通过对乐山市三所高校的教师成长环境进行调查研究,结果发现：在自身环境上,教师充分肯定自己的教学能力并有迫切的学习需求;教师的人际关系基本和谐;部分教师学习时间相对匮乏。在外部环境上,组织制度建设有待干完善。主要表现为：奖惩制度科学程度不够,不能充分发挥其重要作用;教学评价的科学性不强,需要加以完善;教师课程教学存在不稳定现象;后勤保障体系服务有待于提高;教师培训体系依然不够完善。因而,促进教师成长,教师环境建设需要加以改善,尤其是外部环境。     

由细碎走向适度规模:土地经营格局变迁对农村治理生态的影响分析

土地适度规模经营是继人民公社体制下的集中经营和家庭联产承包责任制下的分散经营后,又一重大的土地改革。它对农村治理的影响是全方位的,深刻改变了细碎化土地经营模式下的治理对象、方式和主体,并逐渐重塑着农村的治理生态。现代农民的形成与政治参与困境、新精英阶层的崛起与传统治理权威解构、市场化加深与传统治理方式式微倒逼农村重构治理体系,以适应农村发展的新要求,因此必须对谁来治理、如何治理等问题进行重新考量。