The Other from within: Pan-Turkist mythmaking and the expulsion of the Turkish left

The British sovereign bases on Cyprus, granted with the 1960 treaty establishing the Republic of Cyprus, played a key role in maintaining the fragile military structure of the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO). Although Britain and the United States urged the alliance to play a more active role, CENTO degenerated into an organization with no assigned forces with the exception of RAF bombers carrying nuclear weapons, stationed on Cyprus. Thus, Britain's contribution in political and military terms became vital for CENTO's deterrence capability. The Shah of Iran, one of the key regional leaders, was interested in the RAF bombers on Cyprus; the FCO and the MoD were always cautious over how force restructuring would be presented to the Iranians. Eventually, the need for cutting defence spending for non-NATO purposes made Whitehall decide in 1975 to withdraw the bombers permanently based in Cyprus. Britain could not be the only power paying for this ‘alliance of the unwilling’, as CENTO could be called with the benefit of hindsight. In 1976, Whitehall started scaling down financial support of military exercises; by 1983 they had planned to spend nil on the alliance. The British disengagement policy proved the correct one since this alliance had only a few years of life left. After the fall of the Shah, CENTO collapsed in 1979.     

Virtual regionalism,regional structures and regime security in Central Asia

The failures of regionalism and regional structures for cooperation between the five CIS Central Asian states are well studied. However, explanations so far do not convincingly account for the apparent enthusiasm of these states for the macro-regional frameworks of the Eurasian Economic Community, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This article argues that, as with previous efforts at Central Asian regional self-organization, these broader organizations still largely represent a form of ‘virtual regionalism’. But for the Central Asian states they offer a new and increasingly important function, that of ‘protective integration’. This takes the form of collective political solidarity or ‘bandwagoning’ with Russia (and China in the SCO) against processes and pressures that are perceived as challenging incumbent leaders and their political entourage. A primary motivation for Central Asian leaders' engagement in the EAEC, CSTO and SCO, therefore, is the reinforcement of domestic regime security and the resistance of ‘external’ agendas of good governance or democracy promotion. These goals are concealed behind a discourse that denigrates the imposition of external ‘values’ and continues to give pride of place to national sovereignty. This offers little to overcome the underlying fractures between states in Central Asia.     

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization,trade, and the roles of Iran,India and Pakistan

This article seeks to explore the implications of Shanghai Cooperation Organization's (SCO) engagement with India, Pakistan and Iran. Not in terms of power-politics or as a counterbalance to the USA as this has been explored elsewhere, but what practical problems such an expanded organization could help solve, what opportunities it could realize, and how SCO's engagement in trade is a function of favourable political and bilateral developments in the region. It is argued here that the trade, infrastructure and energy sectors are of particular importance and that substantial potential gains could be realized if coordination is improved. Nevertheless, it is also recognized that China, Russia, Pakistan, India and Iran may have lower standards of democratic development and economic transparency than the West. What is the motivation behind the SCO's engagement with India, Pakistan and Iran? Should this engagement be conceived only in terms of balancing US unipolarity or are there legitimate concerns of increasing regional cooperation in Eurasia?     

The arts and societies of the Kafirs of the Hindu Kush

A considered examination of the causes of the Arab Awakening and the likely appeal of Turkey. The next 5-10 years will be unstable and uncertain. But the previous regimes were in any case inherently unstable as autocratic leaders shut down almost all political life and thus slowly widened the constituency for Islam. As the Arabs forge theirb way forward, they will not look to the democracies of the West which in many cases supported the autocrats. They will look instead to regional models. It seems that Turkey is more attractive than the theocratic models of Saudi Arabia and Iran. Turkey is seen as a vibrant democracy and a dynamic economy. It is not just the Turkish model, but the success of the model which attracts.     

Turkey and Iran: limits of a stable relationship

Throughout the twentieth century, Turkey and Iran have enjoyed peaceful, if not always cordial relations. The Cold War strategic orientations of these two neighbours solidified that relationship. The Iranian Revolution posed the first major challenge to the stability of the Turco‐Iranian relations. However, throughout the 1980s Turkish and Iranian officials adroitly managed their differences, though they did not succeed in resolving them. During the 1990s, the pressures and polarities impinging upon Turco‐Iranian relations have both multiplied and intensified. Ranging from the exertion of US influence on Turkey, to the changing political dynamics in Turkey and Iran, Turco‐Iranian relations today rest on unsteady ground. Although the exact course which Turco‐Iranian relations will take remains unclear, there is reason to be concerned about its current state. For, to a significant degree, the stability and prosperity of the Middle East region depends to a significant degree on maintaining the stability of Turco‐Iranian relations.     

‘Dégage RCD!’ The rise of internal dissent in Ben Ali’s Constitutional Democratic Rally and the Tunisian uprisings

This article examines the historical evolution of Tunisia’s Constitutional Democratic Rally (RCD) from its beginnings in 1987, when President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali took power, until his ousting in 2011 when the party was outlawed. I argue that the RCD evolved from a political force with wide popular support during a short democratic era (1987–89) into a repressive interest group in the 1990s, when the regime cracked down on political dissidents and popular freedoms whilst rewarding party members with lucrative benefits. In the 2000s the RCD adopted a quasi-mafiosi structure that profited the Ben Ali family, which increasingly monopolized economic and political power. Tunisia’s transformation into a near dynasty marginalized many RCD members and its wider networks, a central dynamic to understand Ben Ali’s ousting in 2011.     

Turkey's Protean Regional Policy: Does It Happen on the Ground?

How has regional planning been transformed in increasingly changing socio-economic and political contexts in transition economies? Why do regional planning policies and practices change? This paper explains how the policy ideas of regional development have been formulated and incorporated into the Turkish context since the establishment of modern-day Turkey in 1923. The transformation process shows how, in one way or another, policy ideas have been brought into or appeared in Turkey to shape regional policy. It emphasizes that this sort of acquisition of thinking has been translated into policy frameworks. In other words, Turkey has been taking on policies that have been devised using ideas from outside Turkey which are being dominated by growth-oriented strategies that represent a neoliberal political agenda.     

Nobuko; Translator's note

Abstract

In October 1986 the foreign ministers of Indonesia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) signed a Treaty of Mutual Respect, Friendship and Co-operation. Under the terms of this treaty the two countries have agreed not to threaten or use force against one another and not to cooperate with others in hostile or unlawful acts against each other or allow their territory to be used by others for such purposes. Provision is made also for consultation and negotiation in the event of any dispute. The treaty was hailed by President Suharto as “another milestone in the history of both countries,” while Papua New Guinea's prime minister, Paias Wingti, and foreign affairs secretary, Bill Dihm, said it would give direction for the future and inspire confidence in Papua New Guinea and its regional neighbors.     

The political role of the patriarch in the contemporary Middle East

This study focuses on the effects of significant events such as the transition to a republic, the Greek invasion in 1919 and finally the Great Depression on the economic conditions, demography and economic actors in Izmir. Trade and agriculture are at the centre of this article; the commercial life in the city within the changing reach and expression of Ottoman power and structure of the world economy. There are few studies on the Izmir economy for the period 1918 to 1938. Therefore, primary sources were used, such as city year books, Izmir city statistics, Izmir city guides, government year books, trade year books, Turkish economic periodicals, Izmir trade and industrial chamber periodicals, and British Embassy reports on economic conditions in Turkey. In addition to these, the the most important local newspapers, Ahenk and Anadolu, we also utilized. Thus, this study examines the continuity and change from Ottoman Empire to Turkish republic in terms of economic policies and economic conditions through focusing on Izmir (Smyrna) province for the period 1918 and 1938.     

THE AMERICAN RESPONSE TO PAKISTANI AND IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION: A STUDY IN PARADOX

This article explores the paradox in the reaction of the United States to the two different proliferation cases: Pakistan's proliferation and Iran's weaponization effort. The article tries to find answer to the following key question; why the United States, as one of the guardians of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) which would prefer to see a region that is entirely free of weapons of mass destruction, ultimately has accepted Pakistan's proliferation, while imposed considerable amount of pressure to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

The paper posits that number of factors explain such differences; first, and at the theoretical level, Pakistan was never considered an “irrational” and “messianic” state like Iran, but regarded as a country with a certain degree of cold-war type nuclear rationality. Second and at the applied level, while Pakistan was a US ally with not having a history of challenging the United States, Iran has been considered enemy and a threat toward the US interest.

Third, while Pakistan's nuclear arsenal was viewed as a defensive mean against overwhelming strength of India, Iran's possible nuclear arsenal considered to be for offensive uses against the United States and Israel. The fourth factor pertains to the consequences of proliferation, which is what happens when Iran's neighboring countries may feel threatened by Iranian nuclear weapon and proceed to develop their own arsenal. Fifth factor deals with the possible Iran's temptation to give some nuclear material to a terror group in which made the United States serious in preventing Iran's weaponization. Last but not least, Israel was not involved to pressure and agitate against Pakistan, while it was applied a tremendous pressure against Iran to prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons.     

Review Essay: Stabilizing Nuclear Southern Asia

ABSTRACT

This review article considers three significant volumes recently published in the field of Southern Asian security studies. These consist of Not War, Not Peace? Motivating Pakistan to Prevent Cross-Border Terrorism, by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich; Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland (eds.), Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories; and Mooed Yusuf, Brokering Peace in Nuclear Environments: U.S. Crisis Management in South Asia. In the wake of the 2019 India–Pakistan Pulwama militarized crisis, each book focuses on a distinct element of the Southern Asian security milieu that is crucial to understanding drivers of regional insecurity and potential pathways toward greater stability. However, collectively, they leave room for greater exploration for the effects of emerging trends in this regional strategic competition. These include the evolving regional preferences and actions of China, the potential for Pakistan-based terrorist groups to become independent actors throughout a Southern Asian crisis, and the growing prominence of precision-strike standoff weapons in the strategic planning of China, India, and Pakistan. Still, these three volumes prove indispensable for understanding the contemporary political and security dynamics of Southern Asia.     

盟友还是对手?俄罗斯与伊朗、土耳其在叙利亚问题上的关切与挑战

在叙利亚问题上,俄罗斯被视为最关键的一方。俄罗斯在2015年9月直接出兵叙利亚,帮助叙利亚政府收复大片土地,并与伊朗和土耳其一起,通过阿斯塔纳和平进程、索契和平进程,逐渐稳定了叙利亚的国内局势。此外,俄罗斯还积极促成叙利亚"宪法委员会"的成立,推动叙利亚开启战后政治重建进程。随着叙利亚国内局势逐渐缓和,俄罗斯在叙利亚问题上面临着新的挑战。一方面,俄罗斯需要面对伊朗和土耳其在叙利亚的关切。俄、伊、土三国在叙利亚问题上分歧犹存,很可能会导致叙利亚局势再度紧张。另一方面,俄罗斯需要处理好叙利亚一些敏感的政治和安全事项,维系叙利亚国内战局稳定,推动叙利亚政治重建进程实现突破。     

The NPT,the CTBT and Pakistan: Explaining the Non-adherence Posture of a De Facto Nuclear State

Abstract

Pakistan represents a case of non-compliance to the two most important treaties on non-proliferation—The Non-Proliferation Treaty and The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. This article surveys the changing contour of Pakistan's policy approach towards the NPT and the CTBT, and explains the underlying motivations and implications of the Pakistani postures. It analyses why Pakistan, despite supporting the final drafts, ultimately refused to sign the NPT in 1968 and the CTBT in 1996, and why it subsequently resisted strong international pressure maintained a non-adherence posture and towards these two documents. Finally, this article draws some general lessons from the Pakistani case.     

The Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship as History

This article aims to analyze why negotiations for the Japan-China Treaty of Peace and Friendship were extended for a longer period than expected. Treaty negotiations were protracted largely due to a backlash against the Normalization of Sino-Japanese relations in 1972. Moreover Japan’s diplomacy against China was entwined with political factional strife in the Liberal Democratic Party. Premier Takeo Fukuda’s diplomatic guidance was solid and steady. He created an agreement within the party over time by rejecting an early political settlement that Premier Kakuei Tanaka did in 1972. He also addressed the territorial issue calmly, and steadily advanced negotiations for the treaty. As a result, the Fukuda administration successfully achieved the Japan-China Treaty. Conclusion of the Treaty by Fukuda, who had strong ties with the pro-Taiwan camp, brought an end to the conflict over policy towards China within the LDP.     

Islamist politics in migrant cities: local identity cleavages and intra-party politics in Turkey

This article explores how the local party organizations of the Adalet ve Kalkinma Partisi (Justice and Development Party—AKP) interact with complex social structures in migrant-receiving cities in Turkey. Islamist movements are widely viewed as uniquely capable of appealing to working-class migrants. However, the support for Islamist parties varies across migrant-receiving cities. This article argues that local party organizations face two potential sources of discord that they have to resolve in order to build support in migrant neighbourhoods. They have to bridge the regional identity cleavages among different migrant communities while surmounting intra-party conflicts. In pursuing this argument, this article opens up the black box of local identity politics in the industrial heartland of Turkey and provides an ethnographic account of intra-party conflicts and political survival within the AKP.     

欧洲政治一体化的发展与前瞻

欧洲政治一体化经历了"欧洲政治合作"、"共同外交与安全政策"以及"共同安全与防务政策"三个发展阶段,使欧洲国家外交政策的合作越来越紧密。然而因各国外交利益的不同道致欧洲外交政策无法步调一致,因此影响了欧洲联盟对国际事务的影响力。《里斯本条约》改变了欧洲联盟传统的外交与安全体系,创造了一个"金三角、两系统"的新格局,亦即建构"新人事制度"、"新外交决策体系"与"新外交行政体系"等,使欧洲联盟外交与安全体系焕然一新。这种新格局下可能创造出来的外交能量,极可能增强欧盟的外交能力,使欧洲联盟成为更具影响力的全球角色,这项变革将大大增加欧洲联盟成为国际政治新强权的实力,未来欧盟亦将因此对国际体系发挥前所未有的影响力,以上发展值得深入研究与观察。     

PAX SYRIANA: THE STAYING POWER OF BASHAR AL ASSAD

The staying power of Bashar al Assad and the ability of his state to outplay their regional and international enemies have come as a surprise to many. Rather than just the Russians and Iranians being responsible for this there was a coherent strategy to win back not just the territory but also the alliances that it temporarily lost during the course of this war. And unlike Saddam after the first gulf war, Bashar al Assad is already remerging fast as a regional player again. Veteran diplomats such as Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski had cautioned against a fight against Assad, so had seasoned academics such as David Lesch and Patrick Seale. Whilst many experts had predicted the fall of Assad within weeks in 2011 a careful reading of the Lebanese war and Syrian regional policy would act as the best guide to answer how Assad has managed to stay in power despite all the odds. A combination of his father's legacy and regional alliances has helped him a great deal. The ethnic and sectarian fault lines of Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey and Palestine have all contributed to his success including receiving support from virtually all stake holders of relevant neighbours such as the Shia and Christian of Lebanon, the Palestinian factions, the Alevi and Arabs of Turkey, the Sunni or Iraq. An ability to divide his opponents both on the battlefield and diplomatic table was the main factor that turned the tide in favour of Assad along with the obvious military support from Russia and Iran, but also by key Arab states such as Egypt and Algeria.     

Elections and democratic transition in Pakistan: one step forward and two steps backwards

Expectations in Pakistan rose, when for the first time, in its history a political government in 2013 completed its full term of office and was replaced not by the military but by another political government after being defeated at the ballot box. It raises questions about what kind of democratic space is developing and what type of hybrid regime is emergent. The paper reflects upon the concept of hybrid regime and draws out key variables: turnover, tutelage and neo-patrimonialism and then considers how to categorise development in Pakistan. It concludes that Pakistan is in a ‘gray zone’ and that during the period there was evidence of it moving towards becoming an illiberal hybrid regime but the military went on the offensive and the democratic space contracted returning to being an illiberal tutelary hybrid regime. Unless tutelage and neo-patrimonialism are not challenged Pakistan will not progress in the democratic transition and remain a hybrid regime.     

Losing the connection: party-voter linkages in Pakistan

How do political parties in Pakistan aggregate votes and connect to voters, especially in rural areas? Most explanations for party-voter linkages in rural Pakistan can be grouped into four broad categories: (a) political parties are made up of powerful landlords who use economic power to collect votes from dependent voters; (b) parties are conglomerations of clientelist networks; (c) parties are large aggregations of kinship networks; and (d) parties function by building links with specific types of constituencies across large parts of the country, and voters forge links with political parties based on ideology and party identification. These are, at best, only partial explanations. How is it that they can all co-exist? The answer lies in the level of analysis employed. I argue that when viewed in aggregated form at a macro-level of analysis, such as that of national politics, these varied explanations of party-voter linkages appear to be distinct and sometimes mutually exclusive. However, when disaggregated and examined at a micro-level of analysis, that of village-level politics, it becomes obvious how it is possible for all of these linkages to not only co-exist but often even work together. I adopt this micro-level of analysis through a longitudinal study of one village in Pakistan's most populous and politically most important province, Punjab. Using the case study of Sahiwal, I argue that the reason for the varied explanations is that the link between political parties and their voters is rarely direct. Instead, it is mediated by different types of local actors. As the national political arena changes, different actors gain precedence, leading to multiple explanations of what is really going on in rural Pakistan between political parties and their voters.     

Maori Self‐Determination: Towards Differentiated Liberal Citizenship

During the 1980s and 1990s biculturalism was the ascendant political philosophy for managing the relationship between the New Zealand Crown and the indigenous Maori population. Biculturalism understood Maori politics as a partnership between Maori and the state, grounded in the Treaty of Waitangi, the agreement signed in 1840 from which British government was established. Biculturalism was presented as morally superior to multiculturalism which was understood as setting aside Maori Treaty rights and rights of prior occupancy in favour of less substantive rights available to Maori as one of many ethnic minorities. However, a deeper reading of multicultural political theory provides an instructive critique of biculturalism's inherent limits from the perspective of the Maori right to self‐determination. It shows why biculturalism's influence waned. It also shows why Matike Mai o Aotearoa, a blueprint for constitutional transformation commissioned by tribal leaders is unlikely to succeed as a contemporary attempt to reassert biculturalism's influence. Multicultural theory is not a panacea for the right to self‐determination, but it does not restrict the development of a broader Maori‐centred differentiated liberal citizenship in the ways that biculturalism precludes.