The Israeli–Syrian Disengagement Negotiations of 1973–74

This article discusses the Israeli-Syrian Disengagement negotiations following the October 1973 war. Both sides' intransigence in linking the POW issue to other issues prevented the beginning of negotiations, an impasse skillfully resolved by US Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger. Throughout the negotiations he succeeded in persuading both sides to soften their positions, especially during his May 1974 shuttle between Jerusalem and Damascus. The Disengagement agreement signed on 31 May 1974 was implemented by June 26.     

Dynamics of regime personalization and patron–client networks in Russia, 1999–2014

Many comparative scholars classify personalist regimes as a distinct category of nondemocratic rule. To measure the process of regime personalization, and to distinguish such a process from overall authoritarian reversal, is difficult in comparative context. Using the Russian political regime in 1999–2014 as a case study, we examine the dynamics of regime personalization over time. Relying on original data on patron–client networks and expert surveys assessing the policy influence of the key members of the ruling coalition, we argue that having more clients, or clients who are more powerful, increases the power of patrons – and that where the patron is the ruler, the resulting measure is an indication of the level of personalization of the regime. We trace regime personalization from the changes in political influence of the president's associates in his patron–client network versus that of other elite patron–client networks. We find that as early as 2004, the Russian regime can be regarded as personalist, and is strongly so from 2006 onward.     

Japan–US–China Relations during the Trump Administration and the Outlook for East Asia

Recent political events, such as the UK decision to exit the EU and the election of Donald Trump to the US presidency, may indicate a transition from globalism to isolationism in world politics. This article reviews Japan-US-China relations and East Asian regional cooperation during the Obama administration and contrasts them with prospects during the Trump administration in the new political climate.     

Kurdish women in the Kurdish–Turkish conflict – perceptions,experiences, and strategies

This study analyzes how Kurdish women experience the violence and other consequences of the armed conflict raging between the PKK and the Turkish state. Interviews conducted in Istanbul, Ankara, and Diyarbakir suggest that Kurdish women experience the conflict both as members of an oppressed minority and as women. The study first focuses on identifying sources of conflict related stress that are specific to women, such as the need to be silent to protect their families, and then analyzes the strategies that Kurdish women use to deal with this stress as women, including networking and education.     

Excavations at UR, 1929–30

Asia and the Road Ahead: Issues for the Major Powers. By Robert A. Scalapino. University of California Press, 1976. Pp. x +337. Map. Index. £7.10.

A Peace Denied: the United States, Vietnam, and the Paris Agreement. By Gareth Porter. Indiana University Press, 1975. $15.     

Chinese and Japanese development co-operation: South–South,North–South,or what?

This article compares the evolution and characteristics of Chinese and Japanese aid, assessing the impact of their aid policies in sub-Saharan Africa from the 1950s to the present. It argues that China and Japan's aid programmes share more similarities than dissimilarities. Both pursue aid strategies that spread allocations across a region rather than concentrating upon specific countries. The article seeks to clarify the following questions. In what way are Chinese and Japanese aid strategies different from each other and Western donors? Should their aid be seen as a form of South–South co-operation that provides an alternative to the West's hegemony in Africa? Or is aid from these donors simply another strategy to control African resources and state elites in the guise of a partnership of equals?     

Romioi–Armenian friendship in the Ottoman Empire during the Armistice period (1918–1923)

The Romioi–Armenian friendship, which emerged after the signing of the Armistice of Mudros in October 1918, portrays a unique chapter in the history of Romioi–Armenian relations. During this distinct period, the two communities forged strong bonds over their mutual opposition against the Ottoman state. They drafted common political plans and strategies, established friendship organizations in Istanbul, organized gatherings, and the Armenian and the Ecumenical Patriarchates even entered into a discussion to unite the two churches. Thus, the relationship between the Armenian and the Romioi communities during the Armistice period holds significance in the broader context of the history of Greek–Armenian relations. This article explores the extent of the Romioi–Armenian friendship during the Armistice period through an extensive collection of primary sources including Armenian and Ottoman Turkish newspapers in order to demonstrate how the community leaders worked to improve relations between the Armenian and Romioi communities.     

The Balkan Entente in Turkish–Yugoslav relations (1934–41): the Yugoslav perspective

By discussing the role of the Balkan Entente within Turkish–Yugoslav relations, this article endeavours to reflect the extent to which the Entente guaranteed security to Turkey and Yugoslavia. It deals with the 1934–41 period, which starts with the formation of the Balkan Entente and ends with the German invasion of Yugoslavia. The article is written mainly based on Yugoslav archival documents and aims to provide an alternative narrative that contests the conventional Turkish view. It also demonstrates that although the political leaders in Turkey and Yugoslavia became more optimistic about the future of the region after having signed the Balkan Entente, their perception of threat changed over time during the period of increasing instability in Europe.     

Forecasting US–China Relations, 2015

Abstract

Rejecting the certainty of prediction in favor of a probabilistic approach to forecasting, this paper develops an eight-step forecasting methodology, addressing 1) structural drivers, 2) predetermined elements, 3) critical uncertainties, 4) chance, 5) scenarios, 6) probabilities, 7) signposts, and 8) policy implications, and applies it to the medium-term future of US–China relations. Specifically, it forecasts a 45 percent chance that US–China relations in 2015 will be best characterized overall by a rivals scenario, followed by a 35 percent chance that the US and China will be partners. The chances that the US and China will be allies or enemies are significantly more remote, but real, at 5 percent and 15 percent respectively.     

Sovereignty–Security Nexus,Domestic Constraints,and the Taiwan Independence Policy (1988–2010)

Abstract

This article explains the rise and fall of the so-called Taiwan independence policy during the period of 1988–2010. It defines the Taiwan independence policy as an internal political move by the Taiwanese government to establish Taiwan as a separate and sovereign political entity on the world stage. It reviews two existing prevailing theses – electoral politics and shifting identity – and points out their weaknesses, the former's being its indeterminacy and unfalsifiability, and the latter's being its inadequacy to explain policy change. A new explanation focusing on relative power shift (military balance, alliance strength, and diplomatic standing) and domestic constraints (resource and political constraints) is then proposed to explain the rise and fall of the Taiwan independence policy. A brief examination of the 1988–2010 cross-strait history lends strong support to the theory.     

General Maps of Persia: 1477–1925

The Modern Arabic Short Story: Shahrazad Returns by Mohammad Shaheen. London: Macmillan Press Ltd., 1989. Pp.viii + 158. Glossary, bibliography, index.

The Cambridge Atlas of the Middle East and North Africa by Gerald Blake, John Dewdney, Jonathan Mitchell. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1988. 58 Maps, 9 Figures, 26 Tables.

In Search of Arab Unity 1930–1945 by Yehoshua Porath. London: Frank Cass &; Co. Ltd., 1986. Pp.376.

International Proposals to Transfer Arabs from Palestine, 1895–1947: A Historical Survey by Chaim Simons. Hoboken, New Jersey: Ktav, 1988. Pp.254.

Ideology and Power in the Middle East: Studies in Honor of George Lenczowski Edited by Peter J. Chelkowski and Robert J. Pranger. Durham and London: Duke University Press, 1988. Pp.xii + 530.

Saudi Arabia: Technocrats in a Traditional Society by Henry H. Albers. New York, Bern, Frankfurt am Main and Paris: Peter Lang, 1989. Pp.xii + 230, index. Cloth.

Heirs of the Greek Catastrophe: the Social Life of Asia Minor Refugees in Piraeus by R. Hirschon. Oxford University Press, 1989.     

Bedouin-Jewish Relations in the Negev 1943–1948

On the foundation of the first Jewish settlements in the Negev, at the start of the 1940s, the Bedouins welcomed the Jewish settlers. The local personal connections and mutual acquaintance between them created a feeling of closeness. The symbiosis of daily life and mutual help in the fields of personal needs, from medicine to transport, replaced their mutual fears.

However, two factors quickly changed this attitude. The first was a severe drought, which struck the Negev in the winter of 1947, and brought with it a difficult economic situation, followed by several robberies and disputes, and damage to property. The second factor was the incessant encouragement given by the leaders of the Palestinian National Movement to the Bedouins to join the struggle against the Jewish population, especially after the UN decision in November 1947, that is, after the partition of Palestine and the inclusion of the Negev within the borders of the Jewish state.

Most of the Bedouins joined the Palestinian National Struggle. Friends of yesterday became today's enemies. The years 1947–1949 were a period of anarchy, which continued well into the 1950s. In this period the State of Israel was established. Consequently, the Jewish population in the Negev was no longer the party responsible for the relationship with the Bedouins, as the Israeli government took its place. Also contact between neighbors was reduced after the Bedouins were evacuated toward the ‘fence’ region, in the Beer-Sheva Valley. The freedom the Bedouins enjoyed before the war did not exist anymore.     

Leveraging South–South cooperation for Africa's development

Optimising the development opportunities presented by emerging powers' growing interest in trade, investment and diplomatic engagement in Africa seems a priority for the continent in the context of a changing global system in which power is more diffuse. Taking into account a reconceptualisation of aid effectiveness as development effectiveness, this paper focuses on the manner in which African states understand and approach new opportunities for cooperation with emerging powers, especially China, India and Brazil, including the crucial issue of whether they seek joint development initiatives with both traditional partners and emerging powers. The central argument is that South–South cooperation, which is value-neutral although rhetorically reflecting the principles of solidarity and mutual benefit, must be part of an effective strategy to draw emerging economies into the national or regional development objectives of African states and the continent at large.     

The Israeli–Egyptian talks at kilometer 101

This article deals with the Israeli–Egyptian talks after the October 1973 War, which are known as the Kilometer 101 talks since most of them took place at this spot on the Suez–Cairo road. After 17 years of indirect Israeli–Egyptian discussions, representatives from both sides met for direct talks that led to an agreement that allowed solving the exigent problems, like prisoners of war exchange and supplies for the encircled Egyptian Third Army. After about a month the talks ended, allegedly due to disagreement on disengagement and separation of forces.     

International election observation in Guyana 1964–2001

The infusion of election observation in the political landscape of the Caribbean has presented a range of trends and reactions. Some countries, such as Guyana, have had a more entrenched and controversial history with observation than others. Guyana was the first Caribbean country to have had international observers. This paper presents a survey of the case of Guyana between 1964 and 2001. The article outlines all the observed elections in Guyana during this period with reference to issues of logistics, size, duration and the actors involved. It also assesses the outcomes of international observer presence in these elections and explores the implications for Guyana’s efforts to display acquiescence to the norm of holding free and fair elections.