Russia's oil and gas export to Northeast Asia

Russia has been deprived of the chance of becoming a major oil and gas supply source for the Northeast Asian region due to the combination of several factors, in particular by the absence of pipeline infrastructure in the area. Moscow made its first significant decision to construct an energy transportation infrastructure development by 2008, even though it is only the first stage of the 4,000 km long distance pipeline. If the development is made as planned, the Northeast Asian region is set to witness a massive crude oil flow from East Siberia and a sizable LNG export from the Sakhalin Islands before the end of this decade. The Moscow authority is supposed to make a final decision on the long distance natural gas pipeline before the end of 2005. If timing of the supply of pipeline gas to Bohai Bay areas is missed and consequently a massive LNG supply is arranged for North China, a significant delay of pipeline gas introduction to the Northeast Asian region will be inevitable and the price may have to be borne by the region's LNG consumers.     

What price access to the open seas? The geopolitics of oil and gas transmission from the Trans-Caspian republics

In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union was the world's largest hydrocarbon producer. The landmass over which these resources are distributed is vast and the reserves mostly landlocked. To convey these hydrocarbons to refineries and to market, the Soviets constructed the largest integrated pipeline networks in the world. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, new competing national interests have produced tensions over these energy resources and transmission corridors, with economically detrimental and often irrational consequences. In Central Asia, the post-Soviet Republics of Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan produce significant amounts of hydrocarbons and export their oil and gas to or through Russian Federation territory. Russian government policy aims to continue exercising political control over these resources and to maximize Moscow's share of profits from their export. This paper examines oil and gas transmission issues in Central Asia, against a backdrop of emerging new relationships between the Russian Federation and the three post-Soviet republics, the resurgent strategic competition between Russia and the United States, China's developing power base in the region and Iran's potentially key geographic position for channelling Caspian energy supplies towards the Persian Gulf.     

Russia's Energy Future and Northeast Asia1

Since about 2000, Russia became increasingly interested in a swift expansion of its oil and gas industry to the eastern regions, aiming primarily at the domestic development needs and new markets of Northeast Asia. Eastern Siberia and the Far Eastern areas contain up to 50 percent of Russia's estimated oil reserves. In this context, the Eastern Siberia–Pacific Ocean oil pipeline is attracting attention as a mega-project important not only for Russia, but also for its neighbors. This pipeline will facilitate the development of new oil fields in the remote eastern areas. There are also plans to build oil refineries connected to the pipeline, including the one planned on the Pacific coast. Indeed, Russia needs an access to the neighboring markets not only in the field of oil, but also natural gas and electricity. In this regard, long-term shared interests should drive new energy projects, and governments could greatly facilitate business interaction. Moreover, specific measures dealing with the long-term energy policies are required at the national, bilateral and regional levels, including practical and project specific initiatives tailored to the needs of the economies of Northeast Asia, considering their large markets, geography, technological potential and an interest in building institutions.     

A crude marriage: Iraq,Turkey, and the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline

Since the discovery of oil at Kirkuk in northern Iraq, oil has shaped relations between Iraq and Turkey, as the former needed markets and export routes to the Mediterranean and the latter reliable sources of supply. This article examines the origins of the Kirkuk–Ceyhan oil pipeline from northern Iraq to the Turkish Mediterranean coast, charting the period of Iraqi–Turkish economic rapprochement in the 1960s to the construction of the pipeline in the 1970s. It also seeks to add to our collective understanding of why transnational oil pipelines in the Middle East succeed or fail by examining the pipeline's operational record.     

论加拿大政府的能源出口多元化政策

美国页岩气革命、亚洲地区能源需求增长、中东局势不稳定,影响了全球能源供求关系,驱动加拿大政府寻求更加多元的能源出口地。哈珀政府和小特鲁多政府积极实施能源出口多元化政策,加强输油管线建设,丰富能源出口产品类型,加强与他国特别是亚洲国家的经贸合作。这种能源出口多元化政策改善了加拿大能源出口环境,提升了加拿大能源在国际市场上的竞争力。但加拿大能源出口多元化战略也面临系列挑战,如能源行业的发展受到国内因素的限制、出口市场面临来自其他能源出口国的强力竞争,还有加拿大与大国关系的倒退等。     

China and the competition for oil and gas in Asia

While its economic dynamism stimulates continued growth in Asia, China's increasing demand for energy is creating intense competition, particularly with Japan, over international sources of supply. Domestic fields have generally been disappointing, as have efforts to pipe gas from Central Asia and Russia to the east coast. Consequently, China is not only paying greater attention to potential petroleum resources in the East and South China Seas, but also considering the vulnerability of its sea-lanes to the Middle East and beyond. Its need to diversify has promoted closer relations with Central Asia, the Middle East, and the oil producing countries of Africa and Latin America, but the jury is out on whether China's concerns for secure energy supply will lead to international cooperation against terrorism or fuel the already heated competition for oil and gas. As China continues to assure its future energy security in Asia and many areas of the world, sustained bilateral and multilateral diplomacy to reconcile disputes and avoid conflict will become more important than ever.     

Turkmenistan and the virtual politics of Eurasian energy: the case of the TAPI pipeline project

In December 2015, leaders from Central and South Asia took part in the ground-breaking ceremony for the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project. Sixteen months later, a confusing information flow continues to obfuscate external assessments of the project’s development: official rhetoric notwithstanding, there is no certainty on the details of project financing, while the pipeline route has yet to be determined. To illuminate this obscure implementation path, this article regards TAPI as a virtual pipeline, an infrastructure project that wields invaluable influence only when it is employed as a foreign policy tool or permeates domestic discourses of progress framed by the elites of the four consortium partners. The constituent elements of TAPI virtuality are discussed here through a dedicated focus on the process of energy policy-making of Turkmenistan – the sole supplier of gas for the pipeline project and the consortium’s key stakeholder.     

ASEAN and Northeast Asian energy security: Cooperation or competition?

For several decades, Northeast Asia has invested heavily in ASEAN’s fossil fuel industries. This investment has been fundamental in ASEAN’s industrial and regional development and has also been a main source of foreign exchange. In recent years, however, while energy demand in Japan and Korea has been slowing down, it has begun to increase rapidly in ASEAN at a time when some of its own oil and gas fields are beginning to decline. The sharp rise in ASEAN's demand for energy is partly the result of massive FDI from Northeast Asia in manufacturing enterprises. This investment is enabling ASEAN to become less dependent on the export of fossil fuels for foreign exchange. Indonesia has already announced it is reducing its energy exports to Japan because it wants to use the fuel domestically. Without doubt, the other ASEAN energy exporting countries will also soon be reconsidering their energy export contracts with Northeast Asia.     

The Future of Energy Security for Europe: Turkey's Role as an Energy Corridor

The question of energy security is one of the main concerns for the future of Europe because of the growing dependency of the European countries on third parties, namely Russia, for natural gas. The future of European energy security will be shaped by the EU's dependence on Russia and its ability to find alternative sources of energy as well as multiple routes of transport. Turkey's location between the major energy producers in the Caspian and the major energy consumers in Europe has increased Turkey's potential role as the transit country. The article addresses the Turkish role in the transport of resources from the Caspian region to the European territory. As the Caspian region's resources provide a viable alternative for the EU to diversify its energy suppliers, Turkey emerges as a major hub for energy transport and assumes a greater role in the future of energy security. This article investigates the future challenges to the transport of natural gas into Europe and the role that Turkey will acquire as a transit country, largely replacing Ukraine. The article addresses the following questions: (i) what is Turkey's potential role for energy security in Europe? (ii) what kind of challenges emerge with the increased role for Turkey in European energy routes? (iii) what are the main sources of tension over energy security? The main proposition of the article is that Turkey plays a critical role for the EU's energy security, decreasing its reliance on Russia specifically for the transport of natural gas.     

Neomercantilism and Energy Interdependence: Russian Strategies in East Asia

Abstract

This article examines the potential for Russia's Siberian and Far East energy projects to create webs of interdependence with the major energy-importing countries of East Asia. Energy policy toward Asia is analyzed with reference to Europe's problematic energy dependence on Russia, where Moscow has supported attempts by state-owned companies like Gazprom to extend control over energy supply and distribution. This analysis finds that Moscow's neomercantilist energy strategy, designed to advance Russian state power, has been marginally more successful with the weaker, more energy-dependent states of Japan and South Korea. China, Asia's major rising power, is more sensitive to the prospect of becoming too dependent on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas, because dependence could constrain Beijing's global ambitions.     

Hezbollah's Coercion And the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal

In late 2022, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered maritime agreement establishing their permanent maritime boundary and exclusive economic zones, and regulating their rights to gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. Preceding the agreement was a sustained coercive-diplomacy campaign by Hezbollah. Between June and October, the organization conveyed overt and covert threats, and it pursued actions that were unprecedented in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict: openly threatening to target Israel's entire gas production and risk all-out war if Israel proceeded with its plan to unilaterally extract gas from the contested Karish gas field. A textbook case of coercive diplomacy, Hezbollah's maneuver was calculated and deliberate, which reflects the group's strategic expertise. Drawing on open-source materials and public statements in Arabic and Hebrew, this article analyzes Hezbollah's coercive-diplomacy campaign and examines its implications for escalation scenarios between Israel and its central military opponent.     

东北亚油气合作的现实选择:来自中国在中亚的成功经验

东北亚和中亚地区凭借丰富的油气资源,在世界能源版图中的地位日渐上升。近年来,中亚地区油气合作发展迅速,但是在资源总量上更具优势的东北亚油气合作之路却充满曲折。在地区性统一能源市场形成之前,政府间多边协调机制仍然是东北亚油气合作的现实选择。中国在互利双赢的理念指导下,以良好的政治互信为基础,以油气运输管线为纽带,通过以双边合作为主、双边合作带动多边合作的方式,循序渐进地稳步推进了与中亚国家的油气合作。因此,中国在推动地区油气合作方面积累了一定的成功经验,提高了驾驭复杂局面的能力,理应在推进东北亚油气合作方面发挥更积极的作用。     

Russia’s energy relations in Southeastern Europe: an analysis of motives in Bulgaria and Greece

Although officially Russian state-owned energy companies operate as independent entities, their actions often lead to suspicion that they are acting as a tool of Russian state foreign policy. Countries on the southeastern borders of Europe – Bulgaria and Greece – are prime examples of where this might be the case, since they not only have a central position in Russia’s plans to penetrate European markets through new transport infrastructure but are also part of competing plans for routing non-Russian gas to Western markets. The main focus of the present research is on the natural gas and oil sectors, as these are the traditional foundation of Russian energy exports to Europe. The aim of this paper is thus to provide an objective, evidence-based analysis of Russian activities in the natural gas and oil sectors of Greece and Bulgaria in order to establish whether its actions have been implicitly or explicitly politicized and have served to strengthen Russian influence in the region.     

Behind the ‘Miracle’: Non‐Traditional Agro‐Exports and Water Stress in Marginalised Areas of Ica,Peru

Expansion in the non‐traditional agricultural export sector following neoliberal reform has precipitated an economic transformation in Peru. Non‐traditional agricultural export growth has brought environmental, social and distributive costs. This article critically examines the Peruvian asparagus boom and the impact of this on water availability among marginal groups. Based on primary case study fieldwork, the paper asserts that the agro‐export model is causing the over‐exploitation of important groundwater supplies in the Ica Valley where almost all of Peru's fresh asparagus is produced. This reveals wider issues concerning neoliberal development and the political economy of natural resource allocation in Latin America.     

Russia's energy governance transitions and implications for enhanced cooperation with China,Japan, and South Korea

A Tokyo-based economist and a noted western economic geographer, both specializing in the hydrocarbon resources of Russia, apply the framework of governance studies in an effort to gain a deeper understanding of the recent changes in the country's energy policy-making. The authors argue that, unlike the international relations paradigm prevailing in studies of Russia's energy policy, the country's multiple roles in the international energy arena (as producer, consumer, exporter, importer, and transit state) warrant a more nuanced approach, reflecting Russian energy policy's flexibility over time and diversity across space. This paper endeavors, therefore, to apply a political economy and governance perspective to an understanding of the significant changes in Russia's energy policy-making regarding its dynamic energy relations with the Northeast Asia (NEA; China, Japan, and South Korea). In exploring the complex interactions between Russia's internal energy policy-making and its emerging energy relations in NEA, the authors addresses three key questions, namely: (1) how Russia's Asian energy policy corresponds to its domestic needs, (2) how much coherence in energy governance and cooperation exists between Russia and the Northeast Asian states at the institutional and organizational levels, and (3) the extent to which Russia's expectations for increased energy cooperation with the Northeast Asian states are likely to materialize.     

Central Asia and Xinjiang,China: Emerging energy,economic and ethnic relations

On an energy‐equivalent basis Central Asia is predominantly a gas producing region, with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan contributing substantially to the regional total. Kazakhstan is the primary oil producer in the region. Xinjiang, one of the poorest areas of China, is noted for its vast oil, gas and coal resources, though still largely undeveloped. As a means of facilitating economic development and prosperity in Central Asia and nearby Xinjiang, officials are promoting trade and investment among the countries in the region. This paper examines emerging economic relations within Central Asia and Xinjiang, with a focus on the lucrative oil and gas sectors. Importantly, the cooperation is being influenced by centuries‐old cultural and ethnic ties.     

Russian Efforts to Control Kazakhstan's Oil: The Kumkol Case

A political scientist examines Russia's attempts to control Kazakhstan's oil, investigating both the authorities' definitions of Russia's state interests and individual profit motives. Kazakhstan's domestic politics and pipeline infrastructure are highlighted. A case-study of the strategically located Kumkol oilfield is presented, focusing on relations between the PetroKazakhstan company, LUKoil, and Chinese and Kazakhstani state-owned oil firms. The article is based on interviews conducted by the author in Kazakhstan and the United States, but interviewees were granted anonymity because of the story's sensitivity; hence only published sources are cited.     

The Baha’i minority in the State of Israel, 1948–1957

This article examines the virtually unexplored topic of the Baha'i religious minority in Israel's early statehood period based mainly on primary source documentation. It will be argued that while the number of Persian Baha'is in Israel after 1948 was minuscule — even smaller than the similarly minuscule Circassian and Armenian populations — the non-Arab and non-Muslim identity of the Baha'is, the lack of any historical antagonism between the Baha'is and the Jews, a shared history of marginalization in the modern Middle East, the Baha'is' principled commitment to non-violence as a basic tenet of their religious faith, their complete neutrality leading up to and including the 1948 War, (and their support for Jewish statehood after it), their lack of proselytizing in the state of Israel, and the fact that nearly all of their high-ranking administrators in post-independence Israel hailed from the United States — whose support Israel sought — led the state to cultivate this minority to a degree few other minorities experienced in post 1948 Israel.

A study of the flight and return of most (excommunicated) Baha'i adherents during and after the 1948 War, respectively, will form part of a separate, forthcoming article.     

Coping with energy insecurity: China’s response in global perspective

Already the world’s second largest energy consumer, China has accounted for more than a third of the increase in global oil demand since 2000. Due to infrastructural bottlenecks as well as supply shortages, intensified by sustained growth, the PRC is likely to become an increasingly important factor in global oil and gas markets, and to pursue an increasingly active energy diplomacy. Reducing energy vulnerability will be a key imperative. The PRC is striving to reduce its energy vulnerability by: (1) promoting energy efficiency; (2) diversifying away from its heavy reliance on coal and oil, toward nuclear power and natural gas; (3) improving domestic energy infrastructure; (4) promoting national energy champions; (5) deepening reliance on congenial nations; and (6) reducing reliance on sea lanes dominated by the U.S. Navy. Kazakhstan, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, Australia, and African energy producers are special priority targets of its energy diplomacy, which is likely to become more salient in China's overall foreign policy in coming years.     

浅析俄罗斯新税制——石油行业发展的十字路口

石油行业在俄罗斯产业结构中占重要地位。石油行业的税收收入是俄联邦财政预算收入的重要组成部分。俄联邦政府相关部门、石油企业经过多次博弈,对原油、成品油中轻油和重油税率进行了修改,旨在寻求国家财政预算收入与石油企业的投资收益之间的最佳平衡,在国家整个宏观经济调控与石油行业健康发展之间找到最好办法。进行海外油气合作、实施海外并购,一国的财税制度甚为重要。对"走出去"的中国油气公司、企业而言,了解和掌握俄罗斯新税制的通过、实施及其将产生何种影响甚为关键。