Clinical and social characteristics of persons accused of committing sexual offenses

The results of clinical statistical examination of 1.405 men responsible for sexual offences are presented. On the basis of the results obtained some data are given (which were unknown before) concerning unlawful sexual behaviour of subjects with psychic pathology, frequency and character of sexual offences in the given population; then the effect of alcoholisation and general recidivation of crimes is specified and stressed; most criminogenic social and clinical groups are singled out; and knowledge on distribution and representation of sexual pathology (perversion) in nosologic groups and in practical work of forensic psychiatrists is outlined and supplemented.     

举证时限制度的实证分析

本文以强调举证时限制度在审判实践中的重要作用为基点,先对该制度进行了比较研究,再指出证据随时提出主义之弊端和建立举证时限制度之必要性,最后结合具体案例,运用实证分析方法,对举证时限制度的具体运用所应注意的问题提出了自己的看法。     

An empirical estimate of the precision of likelihood ratios from a forensic-voice-comparison system

An acoustic-phonetic forensic-voice-comparison system was constructed using the time-averaged formant values of tokens of 61 male Chinese speakers' /i/, /e/, and /a/ monophthongs as input. Likelihood ratios were calculated using a multivariate kernel density formula. A separate set of likelihood ratios was calculated for each vowel phoneme, and these were then fused and calibrated using linear logistic regression. The system was tested via cross-validation. The validity and reliability of the results were assessed using the log-likelihood-ratio-cost function (C(llr), a measure of accuracy) and an empirical estimate of the credible interval for the likelihood ratios from different-speaker comparisons (a measure of precision). The credible interval was calculated on the basis of two independent pairs of samples for each different-speaker comparison pair.     

Response surface methodology and improved interval analysis method-For analyzing uncertainty in accident reconstruction

Methods used to calculate intervals of accident reconstruction results are research hotspot in the word. The response surface methodology-interval analysis method (RSM-IAM) is a useful method for analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in this field, but there are two problems in this method because of the interval extension problem and inaccurate response surface models. In order to tackle these two problems, based on subinterval analysis thought and response surface methodology, an improved interval analysis method (RSM-IIAM) is proposed. In RSM-IIAM, the stepwise regression technique is used to obtain a reasonable response surface mode of the simulation model; and then, intervals of uncertain parameters are divided into several subintervals; after that, intervals of simulation results in accident reconstruction are calculated according to these subintervals. Finally, four numerical cases were given. Results showed that the RSM-IIAM is simple and high accuracy, which will be useful in analyzing uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction.     

Investment limit cycles in a socialist economy

The present paper generalizes a linear cycle model of the socialist economy studied in Simonovits (1990): the two equations describing the reproduction of the tensions are retained, while the two linear reaction equations are confined to the interval of lower and upper bounds; outside these intervals the decisions are given by the corresponding bounds (cf. Hicks, 1950). The main result is the following: If a certain linear system of equations and inequalities has a solution, then there exists a limit cycle with period 4, the amplitude of which is independent of the initial states.     

Morphometric analysis of third molar root development by an experimental method using digital orthopantomographs

Abstract:  The aim of the study was to conduct a morphometric analysis of the root development of the third molar, with the purpose of overcoming the limits of an exclusively morphological analysis. The study was divided in two phases. The first one was the verification of the existence of a constant crown-root (C/R) ratio on a sample of 100 third molars, characterized by a complete root development. The value obtained was used in the second phase to predict the final root's length, knowing the crown height. So we have calculated, on a sample of 322 third molars with developing roots, the final ratios between incomplete roots and complete roots. Statistical analysis was then made with 90%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals. The results showed a significant difference according to the age of the subject and the limit values, lower and upper, for subjects aged 16 and 17 years versus those aged 18 and 19. For each analysis, the width of the class of tolerance and other statistical indicators were calculated. The results we obtained support the advantage of a morphometric study as opposed to an exclusively morphological study, but all the techniques used to determine the age of a living subject can provide only indications of the biological age, but no certainties as regards chronological age.     

录音设备识别司法鉴定技术研究

目标随着手机和录音笔等数字录音设备的普及,数字录音已基本取代传统的模拟录音,成为录音司法鉴定主导性检材类型。数字录音资料作为视听资料的重要组成部分,其真实性司法鉴定新技术新方法的研究具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。方法研究基于录音设备识别的数字录音真实性鉴定技术,通过数字录音背景噪声片段的提取,计算录音设备相关的关键统计特征,包括采样直方图分布特征和平均频谱统计特征,并使用机器学习和模式分类方法对数字录音的载体即录音设备进行准确分类。结果实验中最高的分类准确性达到97.09%。在录音设备可分性研究成果基础上,提出应用于数字录音设备司法鉴定的可行实施方案。结论研究结果表明了基于信号统计特征分析的录音设备识别方法的可行性和准确性。     

A study on JPEG steganalytic features: Co-occurrence matrix vs. Markov transition probability matrix

Statistical feature selection is a key issue affecting the performance of steganalytic methods. In this paper, a performance comparison method for different types of image steganalytic features was proposed firstly based on the changing rates. Then, for two types of typical steganalytic features – co-occurrence matrix and Markov transition probability matrix, the performances of them were discussed and theoretically compared for detecting two types of well-known JPEG steganography that preserve DCT coefficients histogram and lead the histogram to shrink respectively. At last, a conclusion on the sensitivity comparison between components of these two types of features was derived: for the steganography that preserve the histogram, their sensitivities are comparable to each other; whereas for the other one (such as the steganography that subtract 1 from absolute value of the coefficient), different feature components have different sensitivities, on the basis of that, a new steganalytic feature could be obtained by fusing better components. Experimental results based on detection of three typical JPEG steganography (F5, Outguess and MB1) verified the theoretical comparison results, and showed that the detection accuracy of the fused new feature outperforms that of existing typical features.     

A rapid postmortem cardiac troponin T assay: laboratory evidence of sudden cardiac death

Postmortem examination may be useful in establishing the cause of sudden unexpected death. In many instances, however, limitations of staffing, budget, and time may force the pathologist to triage cases to external examination rather than autopsy. A rapid assay for cardiac troponin T (cTnT) to document suspected cardiac-related deaths may optimize the use of the time and resources of the autopsy pathologist. Peripheral blood was sampled percutaneously before each of 40 autopsies and placed in the well of the Cardiac T Rapid Assay unit in accordance with the included instructions, and the results were read after 15 minutes. The assay result, decedent age, postmortem interval, and evidence of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were tabulated and subsequently correlated with the cause of death. On final sign-out of each of the autopsies, the cause of death was determined to be cardiac-related (n = 20) versus the cause in non-cardiac control subjects (n = 20). This determination was made while the investigators were blinded to the cTnT assay result. Of the 20 cardiac deaths, 17 (85%) showed positive results for cTnT compared with 6 (30%) false-positive results among the 20 control cases; this result was statistically significant according to the chi-square test. In the over-50 age group, the sensitivity of this assay in detecting cardiac-related death was 91%, with a specificity of 86%. Perimortem cardiopulmonary resuscitation did not appear to result in false-positive results. In the appropriate setting, this rapid assay for cTnT can provide valuable data supportive of a cardiac-related death. This inexpensive test may best be used in triaging sudden deaths in persons over 50 to external examination versus complete autopsy.     

A comparative study of gunshot residue originating from 9 mm Luger ammunition from various producers

Following previous work on differentiation between gunshot residue according to the type of ammunition used, a specific investigation was undertaken of traces originating from 9 mm Luger ammunition using SEM-EDX. The aim of this study was to determine whether GSR originating from this type of ammunition is similar, or whether differentiation could be made between particular manufacturers of Luger ammunition. The results were collected in the form of counts of particles in each of seven key elemental classes being combinations of lead, antimony and barium. These were then adjusted to a factor known as frequency of occurrence which allows comparison of the distribution of particles within the classes between samples with differences in absolute particle counts. The relationships between the samples were examined using non-parametric statistical tests: R-Spearman and tau-Kendall rank correlation coefficients. It has been found that most of the studied samples of GSR were similar to each other despite their originating from various manufacturers.     

Detection of acute fentanyl exposure in fresh and decomposed skeletal tissues part II: The effect of dose–death interval

The effects of dose–death interval on the detection of acute fentanyl exposure in fresh and decomposed skeletal tissues (marrow and bone), by automated enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) are described. Rats (n = 14) were administered fentanyl acutely at a dose of 0 (n = 2) or 60 μg/kg (n = 12) by intraperitoneal injection, and euthanized within 20, 45, 135, or 225 min. Femora and tibiae were extracted from the fresh corpses and marrow was isolated from the femoral and tibial medullary cavities. The remains were then allowed to decompose outdoors to the point of complete skeletonization, and vertebrae, pelvi and miscellaneous (humeri and scapulae) were recovered for analysis. In all cases, bones were cleaned in alkaline solution and then ground into a fine powder. Marrow was homogenized in alkaline solution. Fentanyl was extracted from ground bone by methanolic extraction. Extracts were adjusted to pH 6 and analyzed by ELISA. Perimortem heart blood was also collected and diluted in phosphate buffer prior to screening by ELISA. The effect of tissue type on ELISA response was examined through determination of binary classification test sensitivity and the relative decrease in absorbance (%DA, drug-positive tissues vs. drug-free controls) in each tissue type. Overall, the %DA varied significantly between extracts from different skeletal tissues at a given dose–death interval, according to the general order of marrow > decomposed bone > fresh bone. Binary classification test sensitivity values for fentanyl in marrow, fresh epiphyseal (femoral and tibial) bone, fresh diaphyseal (femoral and tibial) bone, decomposed vertebrae, decomposed pelvic bone, and decomposed miscellaneous bone were 67–100%, 0–33%, 0–33%, 0–67%, 0–67% and 0–33%, respectively, over all dose–death intervals. Although group mean %DA values showed a strong negative correlation with dose–death interval in marrow, fresh epiphyseal bone, decomposed vertebrae, pelvic and miscellaneous bone (r = ?0.989, ?0.930, ?0.955, ?0.903, and ?0.974, respectively), the high variability in both fresh and decomposed bone precluded differentiation of the dose–death intervals based on %DA value alone. Overall, the results suggested that the type of skeletal tissue sampled may not be as important as the amount of residual marrow remaining in skeletonized remains.     

Smallpox Vaccine Injury Compensation Program: Smallpox (Vaccinia) Vaccine Injury Table. Interim final rule

The Smallpox Emergency Personnel Protection Act of 2003 (SEPPA), Public Law 108-20, 117 Stat. 638, authorized the Secretary of Health and Human Services (the Secretary), through the establishment of the Smallpox Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (the Program), to provide benefits and/or compensation to certain persons who have sustained injuries as a result of the administration of smallpox covered countermeasures (including the smallpox vaccine) or as a result of vaccinia contracted through accidental vaccinia inoculations. The SEPPA directed the Secretary to establish, by interim final rule, a table identifying adverse effects (including injuries, disabilities, conditions, and deaths) that shall be presumed to result from the administration of or exposure to the smallpox vaccine, and the time interval in which the first symptom or manifestation of each listed injury must manifest in order for such presumption to apply. As mandated by law, the Secretary is establishing such a Smallpox (Vaccinia) Vaccine Injury Table (the Table) through this interim final rule. The Secretary is also establishing a set of Table Definitions and Requirements, which define the terms and conditions included on the Table and are to be read in conjunction with the Table. The Secretary is seeking public comment on the Table established through this interim final rule. At a later date, the Secretary will publish a companion final rule setting forth the administrative implementation of the Program. The public will then be afforded an additional opportunity to comment on the procedures set forth therein.     

Analyzing the uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction with Response Surface Methodology

This paper is focused on the uncertainty of simulation results in accident reconstruction. The Upper and Lower Bound Method (ULM) and the Finite Difference Method (FDM), which can be easily applied in this field, are introduced firstly; the Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is then introduced into this field as an alternative methodology. In RSM, a sample set is firstly generated via uniform design; secondly, experiments are conducted according to the sample set with the help of simulation methods; thirdly, a response surface model is determined through regression analysis; finally, the uncertainty of simulation results can be analyzed using a combination of the response surface model and existing uncertainty analysis methods. It is later discussed in detail how to generate a sample set, how to calculate the range of simulation results and how to analyze the parameter sensitivity in RSM. Finally, the feasibility of RSM is validated by five cases. Moreover, the applicability of RSM, ULM and FDM in analyzing the uncertainty of simulation results is studied; the phenomena that ULM and FDM can hardly work while RSM can is found in the latter two cases. After an analysis of these five cases and the number of simulation runs required for each method, both advantages and disadvantages of these uncertainty analysis methods are indicated.     

住房改革利益非公平分享及其对策研究

把以低工资制为基础的住房实物福利分配供应制度改变成为住房商品化分配供应制度,是住房制度改革的主要内容之一。住房制度改革的实质是利益分配,住房改革制度本身以及执行过程中的偏差,尤其是经济适用房政策的异化,均产生改革利益非公平分享的社会问题。严格执行经济适用房的政策与基本规则,对违规的经济适用房和集资房进行全面清理,由政府直接修建并提供保障性住房,建立保障性住房信息公开制度,区分不同类别的住房有的放矢地开征物业税,是缓解住房改革利益非公平分享问题的良方。     

Introduction of a standardized "paternity index" for the statistical evaluation of blood group findings in paternity testing

The introduction of a standardized paternity index (PI) for the statistical evaluation of blood group findings in cases of disputed paternity is proposed and explained. By using the PI $\text{X}\text{Y}$ as parameter, it is not necessary to give the information of the probability of paternity in percent. The PI includes the full information of the blood group findings. In addition to that, by using the suggested standardization based on the probabilities of error according to Schulte Mönting and Walter the test volume is also taken into account. The interpretation of the mathematical result is given by verbal predicates, the limitations of which are orientated by the verbal predicates for the probabilities of error according to Schulte Mönting and Walter, published by us elsewhere. Besides the essential fact that the test volume is taken into account, the most important advantage of this procedure is that the mathematical result is involved in the court decision only by the PI (which is free of any valuation) and its verbal predicate and not by sometimes relatively high percentages, which may be misunderstood by laymen.     

Estimating the Impact of Classification Error on the “Statistical Accuracy” of Uniform Crime Reports

This paper offers a methodological approach for estimating classification error in police records then determining the statistical accuracy of official crime statistics reported to the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) program. Classification error refers to the mistakes in UCR statistics caused by the misclassification of criminal offenses, for example recording a crime as aggravated assault when it should have been simple assault. Statistical accuracy refers to the estimated true total of each crime type based on cancelling effect of undercounting and overcounting crime due to misclassifications. The population for the study consists of the 12 largest municipal police agencies in a mostly rural southeastern state. Based on a sample of 2,663 records, the authors illustrate the impact of classification error on the total population of reported offenses. Misclassifications result in overcounting and undercounting certain crimes. The true number of each crime type, as well as the aggregate Index Crime, Violent Crime, and Property Crime totals, is estimated based the evaluation of offsetting misclassifications. The findings show that certain UCR crime categories are greatly undercounted while others are overcounted. The index crime and violent crime totals are also significantly undercounted; however, when simple assault is added to the index and violent crime categories, the error in these aggregate numbers is reduced to less than 1%. The results provide a benchmark for assessing the statistical accuracy of the UCR data.     

Information‐Theoretical Assessment of the Performance of Likelihood Ratio Computation Methods

Performance of likelihood ratio (LR) methods for evidence evaluation has been represented in the past using, for example, Tippett plots. We propose empirical cross‐entropy (ECE) plots as a metric of accuracy based on the statistical theory of proper scoring rules, interpretable as information given by the evidence according to information theory, which quantify calibration of LR values. We present results with a case example using a glass database from real casework, comparing performance with both Tippett and ECE plots. We conclude that ECE plots allow clearer comparisons of LR methods than previous metrics, allowing a theoretical criterion to determine whether a given method should be used for evidence evaluation or not, which is an improvement over Tippett plots. A set of recommendations for the use of the proposed methodology by practitioners is also given.     

Trends in Corruptions Around the World

The problem of measuring changes in corruption internationally is significantly more daunting than that of estimating their levels. We compute trends in corruption for groups of geographically proximate countries, based on the geographic distribution of cases of cross-border bribes, and confirm that geographic variations in corruption are greater than time variations. They are then compared with changes in perceived corruption, as measured by Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. We find that these alternative measures are not significantly correlated with each other. Using a panel data estimation technique, we attempt to explain trends in corruption. We only partially confirm results that are obtained when the purpose is to account for their levels in the context of a cross-sectional study. Overall, we conclude that the study of changes in levels of corruption is still in its infancy.     

Evaluation of match criteria used for the comparison of refractive index of glass fragments

For comparative glass examinations, the refractive indices (RIs) of recovered glass fragments are often compared to a test interval defined by measurements from a broken glass object. RI measurements from five modern float glasses were used via resampling to assess the frequencies of false exclusion errors for eight test criteria as functions of the number of measurements. The test criteria were based on ranges, fixed intervals, and multiples of standard deviations of the known source measurements. The observed error rates for the eight tests studied are between zero and c. 35%, depending upon the match criteria, the number of measurements, and the RI distribution for a glass source. The results of this study can be used to predict the false exclusion rate for a test criterion under a given set of conditions or to select test criteria that result in a desired error rate for these typical sheet glasses.     

Post-mortem interval estimation based on insect evidence in a quasi-indoor habitat

Insects collected on indoor cadavers are frequently used for post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation. Buildings encountered during crime investigations vary according to temperatures inside, the extent of insect access restriction or sanitary conditions. This article reports the PMI oriented analyses of insect evidence sampled from the human cadaver in the atypical indoor habitat. The body was found in the uninhabited house, on the floor covered with rubbish, in the room with no doors and windows. Thermal conditions in the room were less variable than in the local weather station, however still much more variable compared to the typical indoor habitat, indicating the need for retrospective correction of temperature records from the station. Cadaver entomofauna was surprisingly diverse and abundant. We recorded several taxa usually not occurring on indoor cadavers, e.g. immature stages of Necrodes littoralis (Coleoptera: Silphidae) or Stearibia nigriceps (Diptera: Piophilidae). PMI was based on the age and the pre-appearance interval estimated for live puparium of S. nigriceps, giving the total interval of 37 (±7.4) days plus 4–20?days resulting from the absence of first colonizing specimens of the species. This estimate was corroborated with the age estimate for empty puparia of Sarcophaga argyrostoma (Diptera: Sarcophagidae) with traces of Nasonia sp. (Hymenoptera: Pteromalidae) eclosion. Other insects indicated shorter but consistent PMI. Difficulties and limitations of insect-based PMI estimations in unusual indoor habitats are discussed.