东盟的经济安全观

20世纪80年代以来,由于国际政治经济环境的变迁,经济安全从原来的低级政治转变为高级政治。东盟传统的国家安全观强调综合安全,尤其将军事和政治安全置于最重要地位,随着地区传统安全威胁的消除,东盟国家将经济安全视为新时期的焦点。经济发展是东盟一些威权国家政治合法性的基础,因此经济安全是维护其政治安全的重要手段。为维护各国经济安全,东盟国家一方面采取经济自由化改革参与全球化进程以便提高自身经济竞争力,另一方面实行开放地区主义策略,既依靠本地区的集体力量增强经济实力,又充分利用地区外的市场和资源。     

试析印度自由贸易区战略及前景

近年来,印度对外开放的步伐日益加快,最明显的就是印度参与自由贸易区的力度越来越大。尤其新世纪以来,印度已经同多个国家和地区缔结了自贸协定。综合来看,印度自由贸易区战略包括了政治和经济利益诉求。就发展前景来看,虽然有若干有利因素,但挑战也不容忽视。     

Afghanistan: the politics of post-war reconstruction

Post-war reconstruction has become a dominant feature of Western political discourse and a key policy concern since the 1990s. While there is an acute need for informed debate between political scientists and practitioners engaged in such activity, this requirement is often ignored. From a practical perspective, most post-war reconstruction initiatives have, in recent years, been mired by lack of donor support or by no reduction in the dangers that were present prior to the outbreak of violence. Using Afghanistan as a case study, this article seeks primarily to advance policy thinking on what has become known in the literature as ‘state building’. Based on a theoretical and empirical examination, it attempts to assess the political future of Afghanistan following international involvement in the country over the past year. Most importantly, it highlights that the reconstruction of Afghanistan is dependent on developing a new political culture and a new way of thinking among the citizenry that ranks compromise over con?ict. More generally, the paper concludes that contemporary approaches to post-war reconstruction have been depressingly limited in their results.     

Terrorism and Politics: The Case of Northern Ireland's Loyalist Paramilitaries

This article reviews the history of the various political parties associated with the Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and the Ulster Defence Association (UDA): the two main loyalist or Protestant terrorist organizations in Northern Ireland. In the 1970s and 1980s, the UDA was more successful than the UVF in establishing a political presence, partly because it had the more distinct political philosophy and partly because its political leaders were able to distance themselves from the organization's terror campaign. However, since the ceasefires of 1994, fortunes have been reversed. The UVF's political party has been more successful; partly because it has managed to create the more distinct political position and partly because the new climate made close association with terrorism something of a political advantage.     

Local government and housing in South Africa: managing demand and enabling markets

Redressing the inherited inequalities of apartheid has established a complex and challenging context for meeting basic needs in contemporary South Africa. Given the physical and political segregation of apartheid, meeting the demand for housing has been a central development challenge since 1994. But even as local government has been drawn into more responsibility in this area, it must do so while managing complex relationships with private‐sector actors seeking access to basic service delivery previously associated with the public sector. The result is that not only has the structure of local government been dramatically reformed since 1994, it has also acquired a new responsibility to enable markets to work in the name of poverty alleviation.     

Fundamental change or no change? The process of constitutionalizing Uganda

Formal and informal political institutions in Uganda are examined in order to establish what, and how much has changed since the National Resistance Movement (NRM) led by Yoweri Museveni came to power in 1986. The country's 1995 constitution offers many democratic innovations but it also continues to reflect the informal institution of presidentialism. The presidential tradition has nonetheless changed since Museveni took office: the executive is now more accountable than before. The use of state resources for political legitimation also continues to exist but is no longer a form of outright robbery of the state. Clientelism and ‘affective’ ties constitute a further informal institution. The ‘tribal’ features have become stronger since 1986. The persistence of certain informal institutions is confirmed by reference to recent political discourse in Uganda. Thus the NRM government has built relative stability and peace, which are important for constitutional rule, but is simultaneously undermining stability by politicizing ethnicity as well as by placing severe restrictions on opposition party activities. The informal political institutions in Uganda have changed since 1986, but not in a uni‐directional manner: some changes support constitutional rule, and some impede it.     

Democratic change in Russia and Ukraine

The transitions in Russia and Ukraine since 1991 offer contrasting patterns of political and social reconstitution. Facing similar problems, Russia forced the pace and embarked on rapid economic and political reform whereas Ukraine sought a more gradual strategy. Neither country, however, has been able to avoid disintegratory pressures on the state and society disrupting the state and nation building endeavours. The challenge of creating new political orders of stable government came into conflict with the democratization project. The outlines of a ‘post’ post‐communist polity in which the goals of stability and democracy can be reconciled are barely visible.     

Israel and the Palestinians in a Changing Neighbourhood

The political and strategic landscape of the Middle East and North African region has changed dramatically since late 2010 and the events now loosely defined as the ‘Arab Spring’. The dust has yet to settle in many Arab capitals and 2013 is set to be another defining year for the greater Middle East as regional actors, particularly new Islamist-led governments, take on more direct roles in influencing political, military and social developments in the Arab world. Israel and the Palestinian factions of Hamas and Fatah are not immune to these developments and while progress towards peace has been all but non-existent, change in the region must not necessarily lead to more tensions and conflict. The EU and US should work to establish greater Arab ownership of the diplomatic process, convince Israel that its security is best served by assuming a proactive approach to its changing neighbourhood and strive to harness the new realities in the region to modify the incentive calculus of the major domestic players in the conflict.     

The transformation of political party opposition in Malaysia and its implications for the electoral authoritarian regime

Malaysia's electoral authoritarian system is increasingly coming under pressure. Indicators of this are the metamorphosis of opposition forces since 1998 and, in particular, the results of the 2008 parliamentary elections. From 1957 until 1998 political party opposition was fragmented. An initial transformation of political party opposition began at the height of the Asian financial crisis, after a major conflict within the ruling United Malays National Organization in 1998. However, the regime was able to weaken the opposition, resulting in its poor performance in the 2004 elections. Afterwards, in a second transformation that has continued until the present time, an oppositional People's Alliance (Pakatan Rakyat) has emerged that now has a serious chance of taking over the federal government. This article argues that the increase in the strength and cohesion of political party opposition since 1998 has been caused mainly by five combined factors: the emergence of pro-democratic segments within a multi-ethnic and multi-religious middle class; the intensified interaction of political parties and civil society forces; the impact of new media; the eroded legitimacy of the United Malays National Organization and other parties of the ruling coalition; and the internal reforms within the Islamist Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (Parti Islam SeMalaysia). Consequently it has become conceivable that the country will incrementally democratize in a protracted transition. Although the 1999 and 2008 elections were not foundational, they have been transitional. They may not have inaugurated a new democratic regime, but they have marked important phases in the struggle for democracy in Malaysia.     

Humanitarian Intervention After Iraq: Legal Ideals vs. Military Realities

The theory of humanitarian intervention has received new attention since the humanitarian crises of the 1990s and the United States’ becoming the world's sole superpower. The actual practice of humanitarian intervention, however, has declined. It is difficult to forge the political will for it when the countries composing the global organizations that could provide the political legitimacy disagree on an intervention, and with so few countries—mainly the United States and Great Britain—capable of providing the required expeditionary forces. Moreover, the Afghanistan and Iraq wars have diminished the United States’ political will, military capability, and diplomatic credibility to conduct future humanitarian interventions. In particular, those wars precluded its intervention in the current genocide in Darfur. Regional bodies such as the African Union may be the only entities that can, with aid and training, undertake effective interventions.     

论西哈努克在当代柬埔寨政治演变中的作用与影响

从柬埔寨摆脱法国殖民统治争得独立至今,柬埔寨政治在国内外政治势力错综复杂的相互作用下,经历了一个跌宕起伏的演变过程。而作为柬埔寨人民领袖的西哈努克,在当代柬埔寨政治演变中,发挥了重要作用与影响,使柬埔寨当代历史深深地打上了西哈努克印记。本文以当代柬埔寨的政治演变历程为主线,对西哈努克在其中所起的作用与影响进行了较为系统的剖析。     

浅析俄罗斯的东北亚战略

随着冷战的结束和苏联的解体,国际经济和政治格局发生了巨大的变化,进入了一个新的调整时期。尤其是20世纪90年代以来,经济区域化和全球化的发展趋势加快,东北亚区域的合作也随之发展。东北亚地区曾是冷战的前沿地区,目前又因其聚集了大国经济发展的潜力,而成为当前世界经济发展的一个热点地区。在这一国际经济、政治势力角逐的舞台上,俄罗斯无疑扮演着十分重要的角色。近年来,俄罗斯非常重视与亚太地区特别是东北亚地区的联系,并为此制定了一系列较完整的地区性战略,正是以这一战略为基础,俄罗斯从政治、经济、军事等方面在东北亚地区展开了积极的攻势。     

Russian policies on central and eastern Europe: An overview

After the collapse of both the Warsaw Treaty Organisation and the Council of Mutual Economic Assistance in 1990—91 Russia has lost highly effective instruments of (repressive) control of the East European countries and has been left without any significant influence on the economic, political and military developments in the region ever since. This can partly be explained by the deep distrust and emotional reserve vis‐à‐vis Russia on behalf of the new ruling elites in the region. A very important additional factor, however, has been the lack of a clear and coherent Russian strategy on the region in the early years of independent Russian statehood. After the initial loss of importance the region has regained prominence only indirectly as a crucial variable in Russian relations with Western countries and institutions such as NATO, the WEU, and the EU. Though deeper economic and trade relations between Russia and the region seem mutually advantageous, a major rapprochement seems to be blocked by political reservations and considerations.     

Cooperation and stability in the mediterranean: An agenda for partnership

Turkey, a candidate state that started negotiating membership in the EU in 2005, has witnessed serious political conflict since April 2007 when the military threatened to intervene once again in the political process. The Chief Prosecutor filed closure cases before the Constitutional Court first against the Democratic Society Party, the first pro-Kurdish party to enter parliament, and then against the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) which won a landslide election victory in the parliamentary elections of July 2007. The Court decided by the slimmest of margins against the closure of AKP, allowing the country to narrowly escape one of its worst political crises. The attempted “judicial coup” can only be explained by the state ideology of and the nature of democracy in Turkey. The political conflicts are related not to a fight over dismantling or protecting secularism, but to the power struggle between old and new elites in the country.     

Muslim fundamentalists as social revolutionaries: The case of Israel

The Muslim movement in Israel has been growing in leaps and bounds since the 1980s and has deeply affected the socio‐political fabric of the Arab minority in Israel.

These Arabs, who are leaning more and more towards the Islamic movement, are thus protesting both against Israeli society and politics, and against the Socialist propensities of the Communist Party which has reflected their concerns since Israel was founded in 1948.

The Islamic movement, which has taken over so far, six mayorships in Arab‐Israeli villages and townships, has revolutionized society in those localities mobilizing the masses, instilling in them a new sense of identity and purpose and uniting them behind Islamic and national goals.     

A Model Linking Community Activity and Communication With Political Attitudes and Involvement in Neighborhoods

Although people tend to mobilize around local problems and restrict their political involvement at other times, the political communication literature generally has focused on national politics and elections. This is particularly surprising in investigations of political involvement since it is at the community level that people should feel more efficacious. Also, both mass and interpersonal communication should be more significant locally given their importance in strengthening community ties. The study reported here focuses on these relationships in a community context, with a survey of six inner-city neighborhoods and six suburbs classified on status using location and census data. Results point to a much more positive role for the media in community politics. Those most likely to rely on neighborhood newspapers as sources are less disillusioned with government, suggesting that the most "grassroots" of print media are more efficacious in their impact than the other channels. Also, readership of a daily newspaper is particularly strong as a predictor of both community political involvement and faith in community civic involvement. Results of the macro analysis suggest that urban sprawl may have consequences for how media affect political involvement. In the data here, distance from the center city and stratification are closely tied--the further out the community, the higher its status. Results by neighborhood structure indicate media specialization as well as a greater dependence on media versus interpersonal influence in the political arena. Thus, we see that political involvement and attitudes are more strongly related to reading the daily newspaper in the more distant suburbs than in the center city.     

西方国家放宽经济制裁背景下的缅甸经济发展前景

西方国家对缅甸实施长期经济制裁,深刻影响了缅甸的经济发展。2011年3月,缅甸新政府执政以来,采取了一系列政治经济改革举措,得到国际社会普遍认可,也促使西方国家放宽对缅甸的经济制裁。在此背景下,缅甸未来经济发展潜力巨大,但也面临诸多问题和挑战。     

Japanese political economy revisited: diverse corporate change,institutional transformation,and Abenomics

Abstract

This introductory article to the special issue on “Japanese Political Economy Revisited: Diverse Corporate Change, Institutional Transformation, and Abenomics” starts with a short summaryof the changing perceptions of Japan's political economy from its meteoric rise as worldwide leading model in the 1970s and 1980s to its demotiontoa problem and reform case since the later 1990s. Based on this overview, it identifies some striking issue and open questions in this conventional view of Japan's political economy as problem and the high expectations on Abenomics as Japan's current economic reform programme. Then we discuss the articles of the special issue and their new contributionsto a better understanding of the developments at the corporate level as well as institutional change and economic reforms at the macro level in the last two decades. Finally, this introductory article ends with a short outlineof a new research programme and four central research questions about the Japanese political economy.     

Stalled democratization of an authoritarian regime: The case of Algeria

Algeria has experienced important transformations since the bloody riots of October 1988. Numerous political reforms have been initiated, due to the pressure exerted by an emerging civil society; also the regime has been subject to fragmentation, thus exacerbating the power struggle among various political clans. The now‐banned Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), emerging as the most powerful party, eclipsed the old ruling party, the National Liberation Front (FLN). Algerian society today is completely polarized while the intensification of violence since the interruption of the political process, in January 1992, has prolonged the political stalemate. This article deals with the reasons why the authoritarian rulers initiated a process of democratization in the first place: the principal political reforms; the contending parties in the political arena; the reasons for the initial popularity of the FIS and the tactics used by factions of the FLN‐State to prolong the life of the old regime. Also the role of the military in the democratization process and its attitude towards the Islamists; the reasons for the failure of the process; and the nature of the current impasse. This study highlights the difficulty of modernizing a neo‐patrimonial society where the influence of religion is dominant, which has little or no democratic tradition, and where clientelism is all‐pervasive. Our thesis is that democratization failed mainly because it was initiated in an undemocratic manner ‐ and in the absence of prior (negotiated) agreement on the basic rules of the political (and electoral) game.     

Madagascar between peace and conflict—domestic capabilities for peaceful conflict management

Despite severe political instability and many political crises since independence, Madagascar has experienced peace for nearly four decades. Unlike the dominant research on causes of armed conflict, this article focuses on the causes of peace. It introduces a new concept—domestic capabilities for peaceful conflict management—to identify factors related to conflict fault lines, civil–military relations and a culture of constructive conflict management, that facilitate the prevalence of peace. The domestic capabilities for peaceful conflict management perspective draws attention away from preventive diplomacy and external intervention and places the focus on internal capabilities for peace. On this basis, the article also analyses the severe crisis in 2009 and how it was handled.