Publication Bias Reconsidered

In political science and many other disciplines, statisticallysignificant results—rejections of the null hypothesis—areachieved more frequently in published than in unpublished studies.Such "publication bias" is generally seen as the consequenceof a widespread prejudice against statistically nonsignificantresults. I argue that evidence of such a prejudice is in surprisinglyshort supply and that publication bias can occur even in theabsence of such a prejudice and even if the review process isfunctioning perfectly. More importantly, publication bias maystem from dutiful application of standards of scientific inquiryrather than from irrational prejudice.     

A Meta‐Analysis of the Relationship between Public Service Motivation and Job Satisfaction

In recent years, much research has been conducted on the relationship between public service motivation (PSM) and various outcomes, including job satisfaction. This article presents a meta‐analysis aggregating the effects of PSM on job satisfaction. Meta‐regression analysis is used to assess the impact of numerous study characteristics and to identify potential issues of publication bias. The findings, based on 28 separate studies, show no evidence of publication bias and support the positive relationship between PSM and job satisfaction. Furthermore, the results support the importance of providing individuals with the opportunity to serve the public within this relationship. Given the organizational benefits that can be derived from improved job satisfaction and the focus of PSM research on its implications for job satisfaction, these findings are of interest to both academics and practitioners in the field of public administration.     

Using Preferred Applicant Random Assignment (PARA) to Reduce Randomization Bias in Randomized Trials of Discretionary Programs

Randomization bias occurs when the random assignment used to estimate program effects influences the types of individuals that participate in a program. This paper focuses on a form of randomization bias called “applicant inclusion bias,” which can occur in evaluations of discretionary programs that normally choose which of the eligible applicants to serve. If this nonrandom selection process is replaced by a process that randomly assigns eligible applicants to receive the intervention or not, the types of individuals served by the program—and thus its average impact on program participants—could be affected. To estimate the impact of discretionary programs for the individuals that they normally serve, we propose an experimental design called Preferred Applicant Random Assignment (PARA). Prior to random assignment, program staff would identify their “preferred applicants,” those that they would have chosen to serve. All eligible applicants are randomly assigned, but the probability of assignment to the program is set higher for preferred applicants than for the remaining applicants. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of the method, the cost in terms of increased sample size requirements, and the benefit in terms of improved generalizability to the population normally served by the program.     

On the Overreport Bias of the National Election Study Turnout Rate

Consumers of the National Election Study (NES) should be concernedif the survey has a bias that is increasing with time. A recentarticle by Barry Burden claims that for presidential elections,there is an increasing overreport bias, or turnout gap, betweenthe NES turnout rate and the observed turnout rate caused bydeclining NES response rates. I show that the increasing turnoutgap is an artifact of the universes these two turnout ratesare based on. Reconciling the two universes shows no systematicincrease of the reconciled turnout gap in presidential electionsfrom 1948 to 2000, and furthermore demonstrates that the post-1976rise in NES response rates (until 2000) is rewarded in a lowerturnout gap. In addition, I offer another theory to explainthe turnout gap. If respondents have an equal propensity tomisreport that they voted when they did not, as turnout declines,the number of nonvoter respondents increases and so does theturnout gap. I show that in multivariate analysis this theoryoutperforms Burden's response rate driven theory, though neithertheory reaches statistical significance.     

What Motivates Reasoning? A Theory of Goal‐Dependent Political Evaluation

Rather than exhibiting bias or open‐minded reasoning at baseline, we argue that information processing is motivated by whatever goals a context makes salient. Thus, if politics feels like debate, people will be motivated to argue for their side. If politics feels like deliberation, they will be motivated to seek consensus through open‐minded processing. Results from three experiments demonstrate: (1) Politics evokes thoughts similar to conflictual contexts and dissimilar from deliberative contexts. (2) Consequently, information labeled “political” primes the motivation to counterargue, leading to opinion polarization. Absent such labeling, no such motivation is evident, explaining why bias is common but not inherent to politics. (3) Despite this capacity for bias, people can be motivated to actively process and accept counterattitudinal information by simply making the value of open‐mindedness salient. This suggests open‐minded discourse is possible even absent motivation to evaluate information accurately. We conclude by discussing the implications of our research for political discourse.     

What Causes Unethical Behavior? A Meta‐Analysis to Set an Agenda for Public Administration Research

This article uses meta‐analysis to synthesize 137 experiments in 73 articles on the causes of unethical behavior. Results show that exposure to in‐group members who misbehave or to others who benefit from unethical actions, greed, egocentrism, self‐justification, exposure to incremental dishonesty, loss aversion, challenging performance goals, or time pressure increase unethical behavior. In contrast, monitoring of employees, moral reminders, and individuals’ willingness to maintain a positive self‐view decrease unethical conduct. Findings on the effect of self‐control depletion on unethical behavior are mixed. Results also present subgroup analyses and several measures of study heterogeneity and likelihood of publication bias. The implications are of interest to both scholars and practitioners. The article concludes by discussing which of the factors analyzed should gain prominence in public administration research and uncovering several unexplored causes of unethical behavior.     

Social Desirability Bias in Measuring Public Service Motivation

ABSTRACT

Public service motivation (PSM) is usually measured using self-report data, which suggests that PSM measures can be influenced by social desirability bias. This study investigates whether respondents tend to report an inflated view of their attitudes and orientations during surveys on PSM. Experimental survey research (list experiment) is conducted to analyze the magnitude of social desirability bias in PSM measurements and to examine the relationship between socio-demographic factors and social desirability bias in Korea. The results show evidence of social desirability responding bias, although the pattern of bias varies across socio-demographic subgroups. Respondents in their forties or fifties, conservatives, Protestants, and those without a religious affiliation show more bias than other subgroups. This finding implies that correlational analysis in PSM research may be prone to the moderating effect of social desirability bias. Research that does not recognize and compensate for this bias may produce unwarranted theoretical or practical conclusions.     

Structural constraints on partisan bias under the efficient gerrymander

Partisan bias occurs when the translation of the popular vote into legislative seats differs between competing parties. This paper contains a theoretical and empirical analysis of the consequences of an efficient gerrymander for the partisan bias of an electoral system. Under partisan apportionment, bias is shown to depend on some structural features of the electoral environment; namely, the size of the voting population and the number of single-member districts within a political jurisdiction. A statistical analysis reveals the predicted relationships in data on Congressional elections across states in the 1950–1984 period. This paper highlights the importance of some measurable features of the electoral environment for determining bias and provides an indirect test of partisan gerrymandering in congressional apportionment processes.     

The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting

This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.     

Social Networks and Collective Action

Despite growing attention to the role of social context in determining political participation, the effect of the structure of social networks remains little examined. This article introduces a model of interdependent decision making within social networks, in which individuals have heterogeneous motivations to participate, and networks are defined via a qualitative typology mirroring common empirical contexts. The analysis finds that some metrics for networks' influence—size, the prevalence of weak ties, the presence of elites—have a more complex interaction with network structure and individual motivations than has been previously acknowledged. For example, in some contexts additional network ties decrease participation. This presents the potential for selection bias in empirical studies. The model offers a fuller characterization of the role of network structure and predicts expected levels of participation across network types and distributions of motivations as a function of network size, weak and strong ties, and elite influence.     

The impact of government structure on local public expenditures

Though the relationship between local government structure and expenditure has received considerable attention, there is little consensus as to how the features of representative government affect local expenditure. An exception is city council size, which has consistently been found to be positively related to spending. Previous results rely on cross-sectional estimation which may be subject to omitted variable bias. This paper analyzes three components of municipal governments—the form of government, the size of the city council, and the election method of city councilors. Once fixed effects estimation is employed, the positive relationship between city council size and expenditure disappears.     

Public Choice Failure and Voter Incompetence in France

This article explains failures of politics and government through the incompetence of voters and their perception biases. It illustrates this argument using the French case. If voters lack knowledge and develop irrational beliefs, then voting is probably not effective as a mechanism for sanctioning public policy. The incompetence of French voters and their anti‐capitalist bias is well documented. This incompetence can be partly explained by the low cost of holding irrational beliefs in politics. Voters’ anti‐capitalist attitudes are explained by the utility they obtain from expressing themselves in favour of state intervention, and by France's prohibitive level of justification costs of holding pro‐capitalist views. The resulting biases contribute to the failure of public choice.     

Objective but Not Impartial: Human Events,Barry Goldwater,and the Development of the “Liberal Media” in the Conservative Counter-Sphere

This article contends that we have little understanding of why the idea of the “liberal media” became an article of faith among conservatives. This study looks to the past by examining the construction of the “liberal media” in conservative thought to understand the present state of right-wing populism. The objective is not to determine whether the news media has a liberal bias, rather it is to understand the origins and development of this political and rhetorical project. It is argued that the liberal media critique was developed in the “conservative counter-sphere,” a public sphere for right-wing activists and thinkers. Based on a content analysis of the conservative publication Human Events from 1957–1965, this study finds that the presidential campaign of 1964, and the political actors and issues surrounding it, played a critical role in solidifying the right-wing critique of the liberal media.     

Food or Thought? Assessing Internal and External Factors Affecting Evaluations of Instructor Effectiveness

Within the broader literature concerned with potential bias in student measures of instructor effectiveness, two broad types of bias have been shown to operate in a course: internal and external. Missing is an assessment of the relative influence of each bias type in the classroom. Do internal or external types of bias matter more or less to student measures of instructor effectiveness? This question is of interest to those who recognize that many forms of bias operate in the classroom simultaneously and to great effect on course evaluations. Through the combination of quasi-experimental and survey methods, we attempt to do something not done before — simultaneously measure and compare the effects of one internal and one external type of bias to which we refer, following convention in the literature, as an internal factor and an external factor. Our findings indicate that, while both factors studied are important, perception of instructor partisanship (internal factor) is more influential on student course evaluations than our external factor (experimental treatment — literally a chocolate treat). The upshot is that American government instructors should be especially careful stating partisan positions in class.     

Rent-seeking in higher education: Voting on academic requirements

Research on U.S. college athletics suggests that voting on academic eligibility rules is motivated by rent-seeking behavior. Furthermore, academic eligibility rules have been criticized as being racially biased — more blacks than whites fail to meet the requirements. This paper examines whether the potential racial bias impacted voting on a specific academic eligibility rule known as Proposition 42. Evidence of customer discrimination suggests revenue generating differentials between black and white college basketball players. If rent-seeking behavior motivates voting on academic eligibility rules, then the racial composition of recruits and fans may be determinants of Proposition 42 voting. The results show that schools with more black fans were more likely to oppose Proposition 42; however, schools with a larger pool of potential black recruits tended to favor it, perhaps due to a comparative advantage in recruiting black student-athletes.     

Towards Internationalization: A Critical Assessment of China’s Public Administration Research in a Global Context 2000–2014

Since the establishment of the Chinese Public Administration Society (CPAS) in 1988, public administration (PA) research and practice have grown considerably after a gap of more than 30 years. Emerging universities and local research institutes have established specialized departments/centers for PA. This study reports on mainland China’s performance in PA research by examining publication size, impact, and scientometric indicators, including China’s global publication share, growth rate, citation impact, and leading journals based on the last 15 years of publications data, as retrieved from the Social Science Citation Index (SSCI) database; recognized international collaborators and domestic contributors are also considered. Findings suggest that the quantity and quality of mainland China’s PA research has increased steadily, with mainland scholars playing equally as important roles as their international peers. Evidence suggests that mainland China scholars will continue to achieve international publishing success. Finally, opportunities and challenges brought about by internationalization are also discussed.     

Struggles over the rights of foreign domestic workers in Malaysia: the possibilities and limitations of ‘rights talk’

Abstract

The publication of Max Weber's early lecture notes on economic theory as Volume III/1 of the Max Weber Gesamtausgabe (MWG) reveals for the first time how much his teaching in Freiburg and Heidelberg from 1894 to 1898 was influenced by the ‘modern economics’ of Carl Menger and his students, Friedrich von Wieser and Eugen Böhm-Bawerk. This review essay examines the significance of this volume, and also presents a brief history and assessment of the ongoing Gesamtausgabe project.     

Political geography

I study a model of geopolitical organization endogenizing the size of nations, their public spending and their degree of openness. The optimal geography may not be a stable equilibrium and a bias toward too many countries tends to emerge. An exogenous increase in openness tends to reduce the size of countries but also to increase the size of their public sectors. When openness is endogenous there can be multiple equilibria, some with globalization backlash associated with large nations and small governments and others with smaller countries, bigger governments and high openness. However, stable equilibria may imply excessive globalization, too many countries and too much government spending.     

Well-Being in the Welfare State: Level Not Higher, Distribution Not More Equitable

The terms well-being and welfare are Often bracketed together, especially well-being and state welfare. The level of well-being is believed to be higher in welfare states, and its distribution more equitable. This theory is tested here in a comparative study of 41 nations from 1980 to 1990. The size of state welfare is measured by social security expenditures. The well-being of citizens is measured in terms of the degree to which they lead healthy and happy lives. Contrary to expectation, there appears to be no link between the size of the welfare state and the level of well-being within it. In countries with generous social security schemes, people are not healthier or happier than in equally affluent countries where the state is less open-handed. Increases or reductions in social security expenditure are not related to a rise or fall in the level of health and happiness either. There also appears to be no connection between the size of state welfare and equality in well-being among citizens of the state. In countries where social security expenditure is high, the dispersion of health and happiness is not smaller than in equally prosperous countries with less social insurance spending. Again, increases and reductions in social security expenditure are not linked with equality in health and happiness among citizens. This counterintuitive result raises five questions: (1) Is this really true? (2) If so, what could explain this lack of effect? (3) Why is it so difficult to believe this result? (4) How should this information affect social policy? (5) What can we learn from further research?     

Electoral bias at the 2015 general election: reducing Labour’s electoral advantage

Electoral bias results in an asymmetrical seat distribution between parties with similar vote shares. Over recent British general elections Labour held an advantage because it efficiently converted votes into seats. Following the 2015 election result this advantage has reduced considerably, principally because Labour’s vote distribution saw it accumulate more ineffective votes, particularly where electoral support was not converted into seats. By contrast, the vote distribution of the Conservative party is now superior to that of Labour because it acquired fewer wasted votes although Labour retains a modest advantage overall because it benefits from inequalities in electorate size and differences in voter turnout. Features of the 2015 election, however, raise general methodological challenges for decomposing electoral bias. The analysis, therefore, considers the effect of substituting the Liberal Democrats as the third party with the United Kingdom Independence Party. It also examines the outcome in Scotland separately from that in England and Wales. Following this analysis it becomes clear that the method for decomposing electoral bias requires clearer guidelines for its application in specific settings.