The impact of the Master Settlement Agreement on cigarette consumption.

In 1998, 46 states and the four major tobacco companies signed the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA), which stipulated that the tobacco companies pay states $206 billion over 25 years and take steps to reduce youth smoking. The remaining states settled separately. We sought to determine the effect of the settlements on demand for cigarettes. Using a nationwide sample from 1990 to 2002, we estimated a model of the decision to smoke cigarettes. The settlements affected smoking primarily through price increases for cigarettes, although there was evidence that other policy instruments influenced smoking rates for younger smokers. By 2002, the settlements had reduced overall smoking rates by 13 percent for ages 18 to 20 and older than 65 and 5 percent for ages 21 to 64.     

Earnings histories of SSI beneficiaries working in December 1997.

Disabling conditions previously considered to be permanent and total are no longer viewed as automatic barriers to work. Medical advances, improved accommodations in the workplace, and changes in the nature of work for the working disabled have allowed many disabled people to rejoin the workforce. The Social Security Administration (SSA) has followed those developments with a view toward encouraging people receiving disability benefits to consider returning to work. To effectively target SSA's efforts and evaluate their success, information about previous work histories of the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) beneficiary population is used to provide baseline data. This article examines the earnings histories of 300,000 disabled SSI beneficiaries--one of the populations targeted by the expanded work-incentive measure under Public Law 106-70--who were working in December 1997. The article also investigates whether beneficiaries who are working have significant lifetime earnings and whether earnings patterns exist that might assist with SSA's work-support activities. SSI program records were matched to data in the Master Earnings File to explore the characteristics and earnings patterns before and after a person applies for benefits. The article addresses several questions: What are the general characteristics of disabled SSI beneficiaries? What are their earnings histories? Did they have an earnings record when they applied for SSI? Of the SSI beneficiaries working in December 1997, most tended to be younger than other disabled beneficiaries, to have some sort of mental disability, and to have earnings well below levels that would suggest their eventual, complete independence from the SSI cash benefits program. A look at past covered earnings revealed that the vast majority of SSI workers had a history of earnings before they applied for SSI benefits. Despite their severe impairments and age at the time of first eligibility, nearly 40 percent had earnings in 11 years or more. The amounts of those earnings were quite low, however, and were usually not high enough to preclude SSI eligibility. Examining the years immediately before and after the point of application indicated whether recent pre-application earnings were consistent with post-application return to work. Results were a bit surprising. They revealed that one-third of the 1997 SSI workers had no earnings, and another 28 percent returned to work despite having no earnings in the 4-year period before application. Persons receiving SSI because of mental retardation seemed to have poorer earnings histories than other workers but were more likely to return to work after application. That may be explained by their younger ages or may reflect the outside assistance they received in responding to SSA work incentives.     

Disability benefits suspended or terminated because of work

We use a new variable in the Social Security Administration's Ticket Research File to produce statistics on the first month of suspension or termination for work (STW) for Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) and Supplemental Security Income (SSI)-only beneficiaries as well as on the number of months in nonpayment status following suspension or termination for work (NSTW) before their return to the rolls, attainment of the full retirement age, or death--in each year from 2002 through 2006. Less than 1 percent of beneficiaries experienced their first STW in each year, but more were in NSTW in at least 1 month. Ticket to Work (TTW) participants were more likely to have a first STW than nonparticipants, but most of those who had an STW were not TTW participants, reflecting low use of TTW. Employment networks often failed to file claims for outcome payments during months when their TTW clients were in NSTW.     

Labor Market Returns to MBAs From Less-Selective Universities: Evidence From a Field Experiment During COVID-19

Master's degree enrollment and debt have increased substantially in recent years, raising important questions about the labor market value of these credentials. Using a field experiment featuring 9,480 job applications submitted during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, I examine employers’ responses to job candidates with a Master of Business Administration (MBA), which represents one-quarter of all master's degrees in the United States. I focus on MBAs from three types of less-selective institutions that collectively enroll the vast majority of master's students: for-profit, online, and regional universities. Despite the substantial time and expense required for these degrees, job candidates with MBAs from all three types of institutions received positive responses from employers at the same rate as candidates who only had a bachelor's degree—even for positions that listed a preference for a master's degree. Additionally, applicants with names suggesting they were Black men received 30 percent fewer positive responses than otherwise equivalent applicants whose names suggested they were White men or women, providing further evidence of racial discrimination in hiring practices.     

The effect of child support on welfare exits and re‐entries

Much of the literature on welfare dynamics has focused on the effects of recipient characteristics and state‐level characteristics such as welfare benefits and economic conditions; there has been very little analysis on the effects of child support. This paper, using the 1979‐1996 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, examines whether child support affects the likelihood of leaving and re‐entering welfare. The results indicate that strong child support enforcement is important in helping young mothers exit and stay off welfare. Women with $1000 child support payments in the previous year were 18 percent more likely to exit welfare and 12 percent less likely to re‐enter welfare. Compared with women in states that pursued child support least vigorously, women in states that had passed extensive child support enforcement legislation and that spent more money on child support enforcement were 79 percent more likely to exit welfare and about 60 percent less likely to re‐enter welfare. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Longitudinal outcomes of an early cohort of Ticket to Work participants

Using 2004-2006 National Beneficiary Survey data matched to Social Security administrative data, we follow a cohort of disability beneficiaries participating in the Ticket to Work (TTW) program for several years to assess changes in their service use, health status, employment, and income. About 20 percent of TTW participants achieved employment at levels that would significantly reduce their disability benefits. Another 40 percent achieved some employment success, but the remaining 40 percent reported no earnings during 2003-2005. Use of TTW support services during 2003-2005 was modest. Many participants experienced significant changes in their health status across survey rounds, which might have affected their ability to actively participate in TTW and to become employed. Many also experienced significant employment and income instability. The findings suggest that employment among TTW participants was associated with reduced poverty.     

Did welfare reform influence the fertility of young teens?

During the 1990s, states made several reforms to their welfare programs designed to reduce teenage fertility among minors. Among the most prominent of these changes, states started requiring teenage mothers younger than 18 to live with a parent or legal guardian and enroll in high school in order to receive welfare benefits. Using natality data from the National Center for Health Statistics, we compare the trend in fertility rates for young women aged 15 to 17 to the trend for a control group of 18-year-olds. Our estimates imply that the annual percent decline in fertility rates following implementation of these minor parent provisions was 0.7 percentage points larger for young teens than for teens aged 18, a difference of over 22 percent.     

Partisanship and Incumbency in Presidential Elections

Party identification is a standard part of our understanding of presidential voting, but the effects of presidential incumbency on presidential voting have not been recognized in most voting models. Democratic candidates in the twentieth century received 10 percent more of the two-party vote when Democratic incumbents were running for reelection than when Republican incumbents were running. National Election Studies surveys show that the effect of incumbency varies with individual partisanship, with the greatest effect, as expected, among independents. Opposition party identifiers defect at a higher rate than incumbent party identifiers when the incumbent is running for reelection. Even after controlling for retrospective and prospective economic voting, a 6 percent effect is found for incumbency. Incumbency thus conditions the impact of partisanship on presidential voting.     

Controlling federal expenditures in the national school lunch program: The relationship between changes in household eligibility and federal policy

Under the assumption of widespread fraud and abuse, procedures were implemented in the National School Lunch Program (NSLP) in 1981 to detect and deter misreporting by applicants for subsidized meal benefits. We, however, find that the incidence of fraud is actually small relative to normal temporal variation in income and household composition that leads to legitimate changes in eligibility for benefits. It is estimated that each month about 3 percent of all households approved for meal benefits have changes sufficiently large to alter their benefit status. Further, the amount of misreporting at the time of application, estimated to be 4.8 percent, is far smaller than previously assumed. Instead of focusing on the static problem of deterring initial applicant misreporting, the policy problem is now a dynamic one that includes how (or whether) to deal with normal changes in income and household size.     

A comparative cost analysis of commodity foods from the U.S. Department of Agriculture in the National School Lunch Program

Schools that participate in the National School Lunch Program receive a portion of their federal funding as commodity foods rather than cash payments. This research compared the product costs and estimated total procurement costs of commodity and commercial foods from the school district perspective using data from 579 Minnesota ordering sites in school year (SY) 2008–2009. Though comparison of product prices indicates that commercial foods were an average of 17 percent more expensive than equivalent commodity foods, once full estimated procurement costs were included, the commercial products became 9 percent less expensive per food case than commodity products. Base case results were sensitive to the cost of risk to hold inventory. When this input was tested at zero, the estimated cost to procure commercial foods was 2 percent higher per case than commodity foods, though total commercial procurement costs remained less than commodity costs by 3 percent. It is estimated that Minnesota schools collectively spent an additional $1.7 to $3.7 million to procure USDA commodity foods in SY 2008–2009. © 2009 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Recent trends in workers' compensation

Workers' compensation provides cash benefits and medical care to employees who are injured on the job and survivor benefits to the dependents of workers whose deaths result from work-related incidents. Workers' compensation programs in the 50 states and the District of Columbia and federal programs together paid $56.0 billion in medical and cash benefits in 2004, an increase of 2.3 percent over 2003 payments. Of the total, $26.1 billion was for medical care and $29.9 billion was for cash benefits. Employers' costs for workers' compensation in 2004 were $87.4 billion, an increase of 7.0 percent over 2003 spending. Workers' compensation programs and spending vary greatly from state to state. As a source of support for disabled workers, workers' compensation is currently surpassed in size only by Social Security Disability Insurance (DI), which covers impairments of any cause that are significant, long-term impediments to work. Although most recipients of workers' compensation recover and return to work, those with lasting impairments may become eligible for DI benefits, subject to an offset to avoid excessive wage replacement from both programs.     

Public shelter admission rates in Philadelphia and New York City: The implications of turnover for sheltered population counts

Abstract

Previous estimates of the size and composition of the U.S. homeless population have been based on cross‐sectional survey methodologies. National enumeration efforts have yielded point‐prevalence estimates ranging from 0.11 to 0.25 percent of the population. This study reports data from shelter databases in Philadelphia and New York City that record identifiers for all persons admitted and so make possible unduplicated counts of users.

Unduplicated counts of shelter users yield annual rates for 1992 of about 1 percent for both cities and rates near 3 percent over three years in Philadelphia (1990–92) and over five years (1988–92) in New York City. The annual rates are three times greater than rates documented by point‐prevalence studies. Shelter bed turnover rates are reported, as are average monthly first admission and readmission counts over a two‐year period. Implications for future research and public policy are discussed.     

Estimating mortgage prepayments and defaults in older federally assisted rental housing and the possible costs of preventing them

Abstract

An issue now facing the federal government is whether and, if so, how to intervene to prevent mortgage prepayments and defaults on federally assisted low‐income rental units. This paper presents the preliminary estimates of the potential scope of the problem in terms of the possible incidence and timing of these actions, and the costs of preventing them. The estimates are based on modified versions of the model developed for the National Low Income Housing Preservation Commission's study, Preventing the Disappearance of Low Income Housing.

An intermediate version of the modified model predicts 45 percent fewer defaults, 154,000 versus 280,000 units, and 45 percent lower total costs for preventing defaults, $4.6 billion versus $8.4 billion. On the other hand, 16 percent more prepayments are predicted, 283,000 versus 243,000 units. Estimated total costs for preventing prepayments are 17 percent lower, however — $8.5 billion versus $10.3 billion.     

Validation of voter recall: Time of electoral decision making

Accuracy of respondent recall has long been a concern in political science research. Earlier analyses of voter behavior discovered errors which included 10 to 25 percent of the sample. The present work examines an important attitudinal question which appears in each national election study: the time at which the respondent recalls making a final presidential vote choice. Data from the four-wave 1980 National Election Panel Study are used to validate the recall variable for that election campaign. A new variable — candidate preference patterns — is created which reflects consistency in individual voter preference. Only forty percent of the sample reflect consistent responses on the two measures. Furthermore, partisan strength and political involvement are found to be positively related to inconsistent behavior. Cognitive dissonance and the bandwagon effect are offered as explanations for these results.     

Alcohol and other drug problems among the homeless: Research,practice, and future directions

Abstract

At least 50 percent of America's homeless people have significant current problems with alcohol and other drugs. These problems are important risk factors in the selection of the undomiciled from the larger population of extremely poor people. This paper reviews what is known about homeless people with alcohol and other drug problems; assesses the relationship between such individual problems and the larger phenomenon of homelessness; and describes selected aspects of projects funded through the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism/National Institute on Drug Abuse Demonstration Program for Homeless Persons with Alcohol and Other Drug Problems. It concludes with observations about future directions for research and practice.     

The National Minimum Drinking-Age Law

The National Minimum Drinking-Age Act of 1984 was hailed bysome observers as a welcome and appropriate exercise of federalpower. However, the act also constituted an invasion of states'rights. The act stipulates a minimum legal age of 21 for thepurchase or public possession of any alcoholic beverage, andincorporates sanctions against states whose laws are not incompliance. This article evaluates the constitutional basesfor federal intergovernmental regulation in a policy area dominatedby states since the repeal of prohibition in 1933 by the Twenty-FirstAmendment. It also considers the effectiveness of policies designedto prevent alcohol-related highway deaths, and the relativemerits of federal incentives or penalties to induce desiredbehavior by the states. The article concludes that the states,for which the Reagan administration's early theme of decentralizationwas so promising, may continue to find both their federal fundsand individual autonomy seriously compromised in the foreseeablefuture.     

How Restricted is the Job Mobility of Skilled Temporary Work Visa Holders?

Using the National Survey of College Graduates, we investigate the job mobility of skilled workers holding U.S. temporary visas. Such workers either have legal restrictions on their ability to change employers or may be reluctant to leave an employer who has sponsored them for permanent residence. We find that the voluntary job‐changing rate is similar for temporary work visa holders and natives with similar characteristics, but that it spikes when temporary work visa holders obtain permanent residence. The spike magnitude implies mobility is reduced during the application period by about 20 percent, alleviating concerns that employers exercise strong monopsony power.     

A profile of children with disabilities receiving SSI: highlights from the National Survey of SSI Children and Families

This article provides a nationally representative profile of noninstitutionalized children 0 to 17 years of age who were receiving support from the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) program because of a disability. To assess the role of the SSI program in providing assistance to low-income children with disabilities and their families, it is important to obtain detailed information on demographic characteristics, income and assets, health and disabilities, and health care utilization. Yet administrative records of the Social Security Administration do not contain many of the relevant data items, and the records provide only an incomplete picture of the family relationships affecting the lives of children with disabilities. The National Survey of SSI Children and Families fills this gap. This summary article is based on survey interviews conducted between July 2001 and June 2002 and provides some highlights characterizing children with disabilities who were receiving SSI and their families. Most children receiving SSI (hereafter referred to as "SSI children") lived in a family headed by a single mother, and less than one in three lived with both parents. A very high proportion, about half, were living in a household with at least one other individual reported to have had a disability. About 70 percent of children received some kind of special education. SSI support was the most important source of family income, with earnings a close second. On average, SSI payments accounted for nearly half of the income for the children's families, and earnings accounted for almost 40 percent. When all sources of family income were considered, slightly more than half (54 percent) of SSI children lived in families above the poverty threshold, a notable fact given that the federal SSI program guarantees only a subpoverty level of income. However, beyond these averages there was substantial variation, with some children living in families with income well below the poverty threshold and others having income well over 200 percent of the poverty threshold. About one-third of SSI children lived in families owning a home, two-thirds lived with parents or guardians with at least one car, and about 40 percent lived with parents or guardians with zero liquid assets. Less than 4 percent lived with adults who owned stocks, mutual funds, notes, certificates of deposit, or savings bonds. The Social Security Administration's administrative records contain only a limited amount of information about disability diagnoses. The National Survey of SSI Children and Families supplements those records with data from an array of questions on functional limitations, self-reported health, and the perceived severity of disabilities. The data suggest that a great degree of variation in severity exists within the childhood caseload, as reflected in reports of the presence or absence of six functional limitations, perceived overall health status, and perceived impact of disability on the child's ability to do things. Overall, 36 percent of the children were reported to have had disabilities that affected their abilities to do things "a great deal," and for 21 percent their difficulties had very little or no impact. Physical disabilities were most common among children aged 0 to 5, and mental disabilities dominated the picture for the other two age groups: 6 to 12 and 13 to 17. Virtually all SSI children are covered by some form of health insurance, with Medicaid being by far the most common source of health insurance coverage. Just as in the case of the severity of disabilities, substantial variation was reported in health care utilization among SSI children. Almost 30 percent of children had two or fewer doctor visits during the 12 months preceding the interview, and close to 50 percent had five or more doctor visits. About four-fifths of the children had no reported hospitalizations or surgeries during the previous year. More than 40 percent of the children visited an emergency room during the previous year, most of them more than once. Importantly, no out-of-pocket costs associated with medical care were reported for more than two-thirds of the children, and only about 3 percent had annual expenses exceeding $1,000 for physical and mental health care. This finding suggests that SSI payments are not used to cover medical expenses for the overwhelming majority of children. The use of supportive therapies varied widely among SSI children: more than half reported having used physical, occupational, or speech therapy; only 8 percent used respite care for the parents or other family members. An analysis of the perception of the survey respondents shows that more than one-third of children had unmet needs for mental health counseling services, and about three-quarters of families had unmet needs for respite care. In several service categories, the proportion perceived to have had unmet service needs was around 10 percent or less. In the dominant service category of physical, occupational, and speech therapy, only 11 percent perceived to have had unmet service needs.     

Social Security disability beneficiaries with work-related goals and expectations

This study examines working-age Social Security Disability Insurance and Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries who report having work goals or expectations, referring to these individuals as "work-oriented." The study uses data from the 2004 National Beneficiary Survey matched to administrative data spanning 2004-2007 to identify work-oriented beneficiaries and to analyze their sociodemographic, health, and employment characteristics, as well as their earnings-related benefit suspensions and terminations. Relative to other disability beneficiaries, the 40 percent classified as work-oriented were younger and more educated, had been on the disability rolls a shorter time, had lower income from public assistance, and were healthier. Just over half had recently engaged in work or in work preparation activities at interview, about half had earnings at some point during 2004-2007, and 10 percent left the disability rolls because of earnings for at least 1 month during that period. The findings show that a large share of beneficiaries have work goals, most are attempting to work, and many experience some success.     

Does Targeted,Disease‐Specific Public Research Funding Influence Pharmaceutical Innovation?

Public funding for biomedical research is often justified as a means to encourage development of more (and better) treatments for disease. However, few studies have investigated the relationship between these expenditures and downstream pharmaceutical innovation. In particular, although recent analyses have shown a clear contribution of federally funded research to drug development, there exists little evidence to suggest that increasing targeted public research funding for any specific disease will result in increased development of drugs to treat that disease. This paper evaluates the impact of changes in the allocation of U. S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) extramural research grant funding across diseases on the number of drugs entering clinical testing to treat those diseases, using new longitudinal data on NIH extramural research grants awarded by disease for years 1975 through 2006. Results from a variety of distributed lag models indicate that a sustained 10 percent increase in targeted, disease-specific NIH funding yields approximately a 4. 5 percent increase in the number of related drugs entering clinical testing (phase I trials) after a lag of up to 12 years, reflecting the continuing influence of NIH funding on discovery and testing of new molecular entities. In contrast, we do not see evidence that increases in NIH extramural grant funding for research focused on specific diseases will increase the number of related treatments investigated in the more expensive, late-stage (phase III) trials.