Fertility in rural and urban areas of Mexico

Data from 6 fertility surveys conducted in Mexico between 1969-87 were used to compare rural and urban fertility and to determine whether a significant level of contraceptive usage could be achieved in rural areas despite their lack of socioeconomic development. Age-specific marital fertility rates were calculated for the 4 national-level and 2 rural fertility surveys. The index of fertility control developed by Coale and Trussel was calculated for rural, urban, and all areas. The marital total fertility rate in rural areas declined from 10.6 in 1970 to 7.4 in 1982, a decline of 2.5% annually. From 1982-87 the annual rate of decline in rural fertility slowed to 1.6%, reaching 6.8 children in 1987. The urban marital total fertility rate declined from 7.72 in 1976 to 5.03 in 1987, while the marital total fertility rate for Mexico as a whole declined from 9.04 in 1976 to 5.85 in 1987. The indices of fertility control showed slowly increasing use of contraception in rural areas starting from the very low level of 1969. The urban index of fertility control showed some contraceptive use for all age groups in all surveys. The increases in contraceptive usage were considerable in rural areas from 1976-82 and much less marked in urban areas. From 1982-87 the inverse was observed and the fertility decline in urban areas was more marked. The condition of natural fertility found in rural areas in 1969 subsequently disappeared. Over time, fertility decline and use of contraception have intensified. Contraception is widely practiced in urban areas and is continuing to become more prevalent. The rural fertility decline in 1976-82 suggests that at least sometimes increases in fertility control are more important in rural areas than in urban areas. The theory of modernization, which holds that fertility decline in developed countries is attributable to factors associated with the process of modernization, thus comes into question. However, it is probable that a sustained fertility decline in the most depressed rural areas will be achieved only with substantial socioeconomic change.     

Ghetto poverty among blacks in the 1980s

This article uses 1990 census data to analyze the changes in ghetto poverty among blacks in the 1980s. Ghetto poverty among blacks increased, both in terms of the number of blacks living in ghettos and as a percentage of the black population. The black poor became increasingly isolated in ghettos, with nearly half of the black poor in metropolitan areas living in a ghetto neighborhood. The physical size of ghettos expanded rapidly, even in some metropolitan areas where the percentage of blacks living in ghettos declined. There were striking differences between regions, with the Midwest and Southwest having the largest increases in ghetto poverty while the eastern seaboard had declines.     

Work,fertility, and the status of women in Mexico

Among the major transformations affecting Mexican women in recent decades were their growing participation in the labor market and the fertility decline that began in the 1970s with widespread access to contraception. Data from 3 major Mexican fertility surveys, employment surveys, and censuses are used to analyze changes in female employment and their determinants during the years of economic recession in the 1980s. The main characteristics of the Mexican fertility decline are described, and the relationship between fertility and female employment before and during the economic recession is scrutinized for different social sectors. Suggestions for research on the affects of these changes on the social condition of Mexican women are then presented. The proportions of Mexican women over 12 years old who declared themselves economically active increased from 16% in 1970 to 21% in 1979 and 32% in 1987. Until the 1970s the majority of employed women were young and single or childless. But a clear increase occurred between 1976-87 in the economic participation of older women in union. Economic participation of low income and less educated women increased as they sought work or created their own in response to deteriorating living conditions during the recession. Young women with intermediate or higher educational levels did not increase their relative presence in the labor market in the same period. The marked increase in economic participation of less educated women in union with small children was accompanied by a significant increase in manual occupations. Between 1982-87, the proportion of women aged 20-49 in nonsalaried manual occupations rose from 7.6% to 18.5%. Mexico's fertility decline has been well documented. The total fertility rate declined from 6.3 in 1973 to 3.8 in 1986, while the percentage of women in union using a contraceptive method increased from 30.2 in 1976 to 52.7 in 1987. Fertility differentials have been declining but are still considerable. The inhibitory influence of children on female labor force participation in Mexico is clear, but in the years of economic recession the most notable increase in female workers was in women with 3 or more children of whom the youngest was under 3. It appears that the influence of children on women's employment depends on the socioeconomic status of the woman as well as on the dynamism or sluggishness of the labor market. Research is needed on the significance of changes in fertility and female employment for women's status in Mexico. Several recent works have presented results of microsocial analyses of the ways in which women experience changes in their lives resulting from fertility and employment decisions. A methodological strategy for studying these changes and their influence on women's status should focus on comparisons between different generations and birth cohorts, different types of employment, and different socioeconomic statuses. Both macrosocial and microsocial forms of analysis are needed to provide a full picture.     

Reviews

Book reviewed in this article:
Iceland: Recent Althingi Elections
The Elections in Sweden in September 1970. Politics in a Multi-Level Election
Results of the Parliamentary Election and the Formation of the Cabinets of Teuvo Aura and Ahti Karjalainen in 1970
The Local Council Elections in Denmark 1970     

The Causal Flow between Public Opinion and Policy: Government Responsiveness,Leadership, or Counter Movement?

This article examines the causal relationship between public opinion and policy. Does opinion affect policy or is it the other way around? Three hypotheses take centre stage. The responsiveness hypothesis postulates that changes in public opinion lead to subsequent changes in policy in the same direction. The leadership hypothesis reverses the causal arrow and states that a change in policy results in a subsequent change in opinion in the same direction. Finally, the counter hypothesis argues that policy change leads to a subsequent change in opinion in the opposite direction. These propositions are tested with time-series data from the United Kingdom from 1973 to 2006. Strong evidence is presented in support of policy responsiveness to public opinion. However, only conditional results were found for the other two hypotheses. Policy pushes public opinion in the same direction for popular incumbents (leadership), but in the opposite direction for unpopular incumbents (counter movement).     

Political Cleavages in Sweden and Norway

The topic of the article is a comparison of voter reactions in Sweden and Norway towards some current political issues. The analysis is based upon nationwide election surveys in 1976 (Sweden) and in 1977 (Norway). Despite the fact that the party systems are different in several ways, the patterns of political attitudes in the two electorates are surprisingly similar. The analysis suggests that political cleavages are basically the same in these two neighbouring countries. Likewise the location of corresponding parties in the two systems is approximately the same in relation to specific cleavages.     

Rural local government finance in Zimbabwe: The case of Gokwe District Council

In spite of the many problems inherited at independence in 1980, rural local government in Zimbabwe is, in comparison with many other countries in the region, fairly robust and well organized. This paper examines the Gokwe District Council, one of the more dynamic and potentially very prosperous rural local authorities in the country. The case study shows that the achievements of the council can be explained not only in terms of factors internal to the district, but also in terms of the overall system of local government and finance in Zimbabwe.     

Peace in the Family is the Basis of Peace in the Country: How Women Contribute to Local Peace in Southern Kyrgyzstan

ABSTRACT

There has been a significant amount of research on peacebuilding in Central Asia in general and in Kyrgyzstan in particular. This has helped us both understand socio-political processes in the republic itself, and the shortcomings of the liberal peacebuilding framework in general. However, this work has, with rare exceptions, focused largely on male peacebuilding at either the state or international scale. Correcting that trend, this article illuminates the role of women peacebuilders in the post-conflict city of Osh. Based on ethnographic research conducted in 2016, it argues that women have a hitherto overlooked but nonetheless important ‘invisible’ role in peacebuilding.     

The Imprisonment Crisis in America: Introduction

This article provides an overview of recent trends in imprisonment rates in America and introduces the articles in this issue of The Review of Policy Research. Incarceration rates have increased by more than 500 percent since the early 1970s and have now reached a rate of almost 700, higher than anywhere else in the world. The impact has been particularly hard on racial minorities, especially women (whose incarceration rate went from around 8 in 1975 to 59 in 2001). The “war on drugs” has been one of the main reasons behind the increases in imprisonment, along with the more general “get tough on crime” movement that began in the late 1970s. The articles in this issue center around how this recent trend in incarceration impacts the entire society, but especially poor communities. Several of the articles focus on race, age and gender as important variables, in addition to the tendency of the parole system to sort of “recycle” released prisoners back into the prison system.     

Intergovernmental Relations in the Reagan Era

This article reviews federal Reagan-era policies that affected grant-in-aid programs to state and local governments. We find the most important developments in federal aid policies of the Reagan years are twofold—the relative decline in the national government's involvement in domestic affairs and the concomitant rise in the role of the states. The administration achieved these effects by devolving federal authority to states and by reducing grant spending. Reagan's biggest cuts in federal aid outlays came in 1981; in subsequent years, total grant outlays began to rebound, increasing in nominal dollars to levels above those in the Carter years, though still below the high-water mark reached in 1978 in real terms. Medicaid, the largest federal aid program, accounts for most of the overall growth, masking cuts in operating and capital grant programs. Reagan's devolutionary and retrenchment policies are one of several factors we see as contributing to the rising role of states in domestic affairs, a trend we think is likely to continue in the next administration.     

The Impact of Advertising and Media on the Arab Culture: The Case of the Arab Spring,Public Spheres,and Social Media

The Arab world has experienced some unprecedented social movements, labeled by the media as the Arab Spring. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of public policy, advertising, media, and public spheres on the Arab Spring. The media and economic policies enacted in the Arab world in the 1990s played a significant role in changing consumer culture in the Arab region, resulting in significant changes in public policy. Two studies were conducted to test how the change in consumer culture along with new public polices in the region contributed to the uprisings.     

International labour standards: Challenging globalization ideology?

The article centres on the role of differential labour standards in the restructuring of the global economy. The denial of labour rights in Asia is a significant factor in the Asian investment boom and in the employment crises in the OECD countries. The first section outlines the Clinton administration's intervention on labour standards in Asia, the strident reaction from Asian governments and from US business interests, and the administration's rapid retreat into ‘constructive engagement’. The second section considers neo‐liberal arguments advanced in favour of nonintervention in the labour sphere since the freeing up of trade and market forces generates economic growth, which in itself improves labour standards. The assumptions underlying this model are critiqued. Finally, alternatives that recognize the significant influence of labour standards on global investment flows are identified. Here it is argued that the emergence of independent unionism in Asia could have a significant effect on the structure of the the global economy in the longer term.     

Perceptions of Israel in the Armies of Syria, Egypt and Jordan

The reasons for change in state elites' perceptions of the adversary are fiercely contested by realists, constructivistis and neo-liberals in the international relations literature. A series of events – beginning with the October 1973 war and culminating in the Oslo peace process – offers a unique opportunity to assess the value of these theories in explaining change in the perceptions of Israel and Zionism in Syria, Egypt and Jordan. This study is based on articles on Israel and Zionism that appeared in the official army journals of these three states. The analysis suggests that, since the 1973 war, Egypt has perceived Israel as a formidable foe that must be restrained, Syria continues to deny Israel's legitimacy, and Jordan's perceptions of Israel changed dramatically from demonization to recognition. The realist paradigm, which focuses on changes in the regional and international balance of power, does best in explaining variations in the portrayal of Israel amongst these actors. Nevertheless, none of the theories offers a complete, timeless explanation of the issue. The limitations of any single theory to account for change in the perceptions of the adversary suggest that caution should be used in attempting to capture the complexity of social and political life in any single overarching theory.     

Fighting for relevance: Economic intelligence and special operations executive in Spain, 1943–1945

This article examines the work of the Special Operations Executive (SOE) in Spain during the latter part of the Second World War. Unlike SOE's broad mandate to sow dissent and disarray in occupied countries, in Spain agents were forbidden from any involvement in direct action and sabotage. Diplomatic concerns, namely the maintenance of Spanish neutrality in the war, overrode all other strategic issues in Iberia. SOE agents and leaders in Madrid, therefore, attempted to create a different role for themselves. Drawing on files released in the Public Record Office in 1998, the article highlights SOE's limited success in the effort to establish for itself a part in the Allied strategic and diplomatic campaign against German wolfram smuggling. Success proved fleeting, however, and SOE's ultimate failure, in the face of hostility from the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), to prove its usefulness beyond the wolfram campaign, would lead to its withdrawal from Spain. The story of the SOE in Spain represents, on a small scale, the failure of the organization to find a niche in the British intelligence community after the Second World War.     

Dealing With Human Rights in International Organizations

Over time human rights have gained prominence in international organizations. At the same time, dealing with them has proved difficult and contentious. The present article focuses on the way in which the United Nations have addressed human rights issues, especially through the Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR) and its successor the Human Rights Council (UNHRC). Drawing on data on resolutions debated and (largely) adopted in these two bodies in the last 17 years, I offer a comparison of the voting record in these two periods. By analyzing in detail in a comparative fashion the votes in these two bodies, the article shows that despite the high hopes, the UNHRC faces some of the same challenges as its predecessor. More specifcally, I find that the conflict lines have largely remained the same in these two bodies, and the degree of polarization has slightly increased in the new UNHRC.     

MI(R), G(R) and British covert operations, 1939–42

The Military Intelligence (Research) department of the British War Office was tasked in 1940 with encouraging and supporting armed resistance in occupied Europe and the Axis-controlled Middle East. The major contention of this paper is that, in doing so, MI(R) performed a key role in British strategy in 1940–42 and in the development of what are now known as covert operations. MI(R) developed an organic, but coherent doctrine for such activity which was influential upon the Special Operations Executive (SOE) and its own sub-branch, G(R), which applied this doctrine in practice in East Africa and the Middle East in 1940–41. It was also here that a number of key figures in the development of covert operations and special forces first cut their teeth, the most notable being Major Generals Colin Gubbins and Orde Wingate.     

Urban local government finance in Nigeria: The case of Lagos municipal area

One of the most important results of the global reform of local governments in Nigeria in 1976 was to initiate a progressive increase in the amount of monetary transfers to local governments (LGs) by federal and state governments (especially the former). The proportion of federally collected revenues devoted to LGs increased rapidly from less than 2 per cent in 1976 to 15 per cent in 1990. This has enabled Nigerian LGs to play a more visible role in total public expenditures. On the other hand, huge federal transfers have led to sharp declines in absolute and relative terms in locally generated revenues. The two Lagos municipalities are able to generate up to 50 per cent of their total revenues. In contrast, the average for all local governments in the country is 4–5 per cent. The relatively large internal revenue sources in the two Lagos municipalities results in generous surpluses, which they are able to channel into capital development or special project expenditures. The single most important internal revenue source is the property tax, which is not even collected in some other large cities, such as Kano, Ogbomosho and Sokoto.     

The Recruitment of Women Cabinet Ministers in the Canadian Provinces

Although there have been several studies of women in legislatures in Canada, a cabinet position is a much stronger position from which to wield power in an executive-centered and party-disciplined parliamentary system. In the past decade, the increase of women's share of legislative seats, for majority parties as well as others, has led to more women being appointed to cabinet portfolios. This article utilizes data from the ten Canadian provinces over an 18-year period, from 1976 to 1994, to assess patterns of such appointments by province, party, percentage of women in the governing party, and percentage of women in the legislature. The proportion of women in the governing party far outweighs other variables in its impact on the percentage of women in the cabinet, in contrast to a previous study of West European cabinets which found that more women in the legislature was of greater importance. Although a high level of multicollinearity indicates caution in attempting to distinguish between the impact of these two variables, the differences in these studies may be due to Canadian provinces having single-party majority governments while West European cabinets are often coalitions.     

Do Small Area Fair Market Rents Reduce Racial Disparities in the Voucher Program?

ABSTRACT

A lawsuit that argued that the method used to calculate rent limits in the Housing Choice Voucher Program promoted racial segregation in Dallas, Texas, resulted in the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development developing zip code-based voucher rent limits in Dallas in 2011. This rent calculation approach was then expanded to five other demonstration sites in 2012. This article analyzes whether adjusting voucher rent limits reduces a minority household’s likelihood of living in a high-minority neighborhood, improves their likelihood of living in a higher opportunity neighborhood, and reduces the disparity in location outcomes between minority and White households in the voucher program. This article finds evidence of improvements in the location outcomes of Black and Hispanic voucher households because of the use of zip code-based rent limits, but that these results are only marginal with respect to the persistent disparities in outcomes based on race within the voucher program.     

Conflict management strategies in ASEAN: perspectives for SAARC

ASEAN has generally been hailed as one of the most successful experiments in regional cooperation in the developing world, particularly in its ability to manage conflicts and maintain peace and security in Southeast Asia. SAARC, its counterpart in South Asia, on the other hand, is perceived as a moribund organization that has made little progress in furthering peace and cooperation in the region. Regionalism is indeed peculiar to its own region making for a different set of challenges, which each regional grouping has to address by evolving suitable modelsof conflict management and regional cooperation. ASEAN and its unique style of functioning are also distinct in that sense. While the experiences of one organization cannot be wholly applied or transplanted on to another, it is useful to understand the logic and dynamics in each region to draw the relevant lessons. Some aspects of cooperation in one region may be worthy of emulation in another if adapted in the right socio-economic and political context. This paper explores areas where SAARC, despite obvious divergences with ASEAN in its geopolitical and economic make-up, could benefit from the ASEAN experience in seeking to create a political climate conducive to improving regional cooperation in political and economic matters. The ASEAN model of conflict management may be of greater significance to South Asia in light of greater imminent regional tensions arising from the current war on South Asia’s border in Afghanistan.