Taming chance: Risk and the quantification of uncertainty

The quantification of uncertainty through probability is central to definitions of risk used in environmental policy analysis. This essay explores the translation of unquantified uncertainty into probability and the expression of allied philosophical problems in the practice of environmental risk and decision analysis. First we look at means used in science for handling uncertainty associated with some major risks and which are not well represented through probability. Saving the science without quantified probability is addressed through the role of probabilistic events in risk analysis, suggesting the need to expand the scope of risk analysis to include some types of unquantified reasoning about adverse events. Next we look at uses of subjective probability and decision analysis to overcome problems of unquantified uncertainty in science, where we argue that a constructive conception of probability judgments, based in the foundations of decision analysis, provides the most useful approach for such methods. A theme throughout is the role of intellectual control implicit in our efforts to tame change through the representation of uncertainty through probability.     

On Some Limitations of the Median Voting Rule

Median Voting Rule (MVR) has been proposed as a voting rule,based on the argument that MVR will be less manipulable thanBorda Rule. We find that plurality rule has only a slightlygreater probability of manipulability than MVR, and thatCopeland Rule has a smaller probability of manipulability thanMVR. In addition Borda Rule, plurality rule and Copeland Ruleall have both a greater probability of producing a decisiveresult and a greater strict Condorcet efficiency than MVR.Based on all characteristics, MVR does not seem to be viablereplacement for either plurality rule or for Copeland Rule.     

On the economic incentives for taking bribes

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the factors affecting bribe taking by public officials. Factors influencing the acceptance of bribes include: the probability of being convicted, severity of punishment, government salary relative to private sector income, the demonstration effect, and the unemployment rate. Our results indicate that higher probability of being convicted discourages the acceptance of bribes as does more severe punishment. Low relative earnings, high unemployment, and the demonstration effect of aggregate advertising all lead to increased bribe taking.     

Beliefs and Voting Decisions: A Test of the Pivotal Voter Model

We report results from a laboratory experiment testing the basic hypothesis embedded in various rational voter models that there is a direct correlation between the strength of an individual's belief that his or her vote will be pivotal and the likelihood that individual incurs the cost to vote. This belief is typically unobservable. In one of our experimental treatments we elicit these subjective beliefs using a proper scoring rule that induces truthful revelation of beliefs. This allows us to directly test the pivotal voter model. We find that a higher subjective probability of being pivotal increases the likelihood that an individual votes, but the probability thresholds used by subjects are not as crisp as the theory would predict. There is some evidence that individuals learn over time to adjust their beliefs to be more consistent with the historical frequency of pivotality. However, many subjects keep substantially overestimating their probability of being pivotal.     

An Empirical Analysis on the Determinants of the Length of Ministerial Tenure in Korea, 1980–2008

ABSTRACT

The study of the length of ministerial tenure has received some attention by scholars of public management in Western countries. Responding to the lack of empirical research on ministerial duration in non-Western countries, this article empirically examines the determinants of ministerial duration based on the Korean Ministerial Database from 1980 to 2008. The empirical findings are as follows. First, being a female minister decreases the probability of stepping down by 1.78 times compared to a male minister. Second, political democratization after 1987 drastically increases the probability of ministerial stepping down by 3.46 times. Third, confirmation hearings after 2005 decrease the probability of ministerial stepping down by 0.53 times. Based on these empirical findings of the analysis, we can identify distinctive characteristics of ministerial duration in Korea. We argue that as the Korean political system shifts from military or authoritarian rule to democratic rule after 1987, a single five-year presidential term may set a political environment for frequent changes of ministers to allocate political spoils.     

Voter information and electoral outcomes: the Norwegian list of shame

This paper studies the effect on vote shares and reelection probability for the incumbent’s party from a signal indicating poor fiscal performance. In Norway, local governments with persistent deficits are placed in the Register for State Review and Approval of Financial Obligations (Robek). In addition to increased central government monitoring, placement in Robek triggers a great deal of attention in the local media. It is thus expected to raise voter awareness of the fiscal stance of the local government. The results indicate that voters value the information embedded in this signal, and take it into account when casting their votes. Both the share of votes for the incumbent’s party and the probability that the incumbent party stays in office is significantly reduced as a consequence of the local government being included in the register. The vote share for the incumbent is reduced by about three percentage points, while the reelection probability is reduced by about 0.12.     

Electoral cycles in the administration of criminal justice

Based on an analysis of over one million felony charges disposed in North Carolina courts during the 1990s, this paper describes the effects of district attorney elections on criminal case outcomes. Defendants face a higher probability of conviction and a lower probability of having all charges dismissed in an election year. The results suggest that in election years, DAs are more likely to prosecute cases that might otherwise be dismissed. The estimated effects are more pronounced for defendants charged with property or drug crimes than for defendants charged with violent crimes, and more pronounced in districts with more electoral competition.     

Into the Words: Using Statutory Text to Explore the Impact of Federal Courts on State Policy Diffusion

I examine the impact federal appellate courts have on state policy diffusion through the use of computational text analysis. Using a dyadic framework, I model the impact courts have on the decision to adopt a policy and, if adopted, how much text to borrow directly from another state's preexisting law. A court decision ruling a statute unconstitutional can generate up to a 28% relative reduction in the probability of adoption, and a ruling of constitutionality can both increase the probability of adoption by a similar amount and more than double the amount of borrowed text. These findings shed light on how states learn from one another.     

The Separation Plot: A New Visual Method for Evaluating the Fit of Binary Models

We present a visual method for assessing the predictive power of models with binary outcomes. This technique allows the analyst to evaluate model fit based upon the models’ ability to consistently match high‐probability predictions to actual occurrences of the event of interest, and low‐probability predictions to nonoccurrences of the event of interest. Unlike existing methods for assessing predictive power for logit and probit models such as Percent Correctly Predicted statistics, Brier scores, and the ROC plot, our “separation plot” has the advantage of producing a visual display that is informative and easy to explain to a general audience, while also remaining insensitive to the often arbitrary probability thresholds that are used to distinguish between predicted events and nonevents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique in building predictive models in a number of different areas of political research.     

Senior Executives' Political Connections and Corporate Environmental Behavior—Empirical Research From the Chinese A‐Share Market

This thesis analyzed the cross‐section data of 630 non‐financial listed enterprises and adopts a logit model to estimate the relationships between political relations and corporate environmental behavior. The paper also adopts an ordered logit method to estimate the marginal impact of political connections to enterprises’ disclosure of information on environment and sustainable development. Through analysis, this thesis found that political connections lower the probability for enterprises to disclose information on environment and sustainable development. With the Level III scoring method, this article classified the performances of disclosing corporate environmental information into three levels. It is found that corporate political connections increase the probability for enterprises not to disclose any environmental information and lower the probability for enterprises to refer to GRI Sustainability Reporting Guidelines.     

The progress of the betting in a baseball game

The development of the Internet has led to the creation of countless new markets, among them, online, in-game betting markets for sporting contests. We examine the behavior of prices as events unfold in a baseball game. Specifically, we compare the evolution of prices during a game with probability estimates generated by an empirical model of scoring in baseball. We find that price changes correspond closely to changes in the probability of winning, for plays of both small and dramatic impact. Nevertheless, data limitations inhibit the ability to make strong claims regarding the hypothesis of efficient pricing.     

论期待可能性理论与我匡刑事立法和司法

期待可能性理论对刑事立法的借鉴意义主要体现在刑事立法应当融入伦理价值判断，应当关注弱势群体方面。在具体的立法设置上，不宜在刑法总则中作出具体明确的规定，可以在分则中就一些具体问题作出规定。期待可能性理论在司法实务中的运用主要体现是，要求法官应当具备衡平观念，在案件的具体裁判中倾注道德判断。     

Do local elections predict the outcome of the next general election? Forecasting British general elections from local election national vote share estimates

This article outlines a method for forecasting British general elections from national level vote shares at local elections. Although local elections are notionally ‘local’, the evidence suggests that they at least partly mirror national electoral fortunes. A simple general election vote share on local election vote share regression model that accounts for partisan differences and incumbency effects fits past data with reasonable accuracy. Based on the results of the 2013 and 2014 local elections, the model forecast a 56% probability of hung parliament, with a 78% probability of the Conservatives receiving the largest share of the vote.     

Consumer resistance and monopoly behavior under franchise contestability

The probability of a deregulation under anti-monopoly consumer lobby is generated at the Cournot-Nash equilibrium of a lobbying game which depends on the monopoly rent and the deadweight loss. This probability is increasing and convex in monopoly price. When the deregulation probability constraint is binding, the monopolist's price rises with the number of consumers, the competitive price and the given ceiling probability. The social cost of a monopoly under franchise contestability differs from the Posner measure.     

The Study of Intelligence in Theory and Practice

The use of probability propositions is widespread in Intelligence estimation and strategic forecasts, as in everyday life. This paper attempts to give clear meaning to the use of probability statements for future strategic assessment. The first half presents possible interpretations in the philosophy of probability, while the second part applies the understandings of the first half to the Intelligence estimation process. A recommendation for a combination of ‘a priori’ interpretation of probability with a higher level of ‘relative frequency’ interpretation is the result of this paper.     

The Political Economy of Fiscal Policy: An Experimental Study on the Strategic Use of Deficits

Field data on the strategic use of deficits to limit thebudgetary scope of future governments are inconclusive aboutthe effects of political polarization or a government'sre-election probability on fiscal policy. Therefore, wedesigned a controlled experiment to examine the strategic useof deficits. Using a within-subjects design, we find thatdeficits rise with a higher degree of polarization and a lowerreelection probability. However, in a between-subjects designneither polarization nor reelection probabilities have asystematic effect. We discuss the implications of ourexperimental results for empirical tests of the strategic useof deficits with field data.     

Expressive Voting and Government Redistribution: Testing Tullock's `Charity of the Uncharitable'

Models of expressive voting postulate that voters will`consume' ideological stances on issues by voting for them,even when they are against the voter's own narrow selfinterest, if the probability of being a decisive voter is low.When a voter is unlikely to sway the outcome, the odds that avoter will incur any real personal cost (a higher tax burden,for example) from her own expressive vote is small. We testand find support for Tullock's straightforward empiricalimplication of this model, that government welfare (transfer)payments are inversely related to the probability of being thedecisive voter.     

Student Age and the Collegiate Pathway

Using a rich data set of all SAT test takers from the 2004 through 2008 high school graduation cohorts, we investigate the impact of state‐specific school age‐of‐entry laws on students’ pathways into and through college. We document that these laws do not impact the probability that a student takes the SAT; however, we find strong evidence that students who are expected to be the oldest in their school cohorts based on their state residency and birthdays have a greater probability of taking an Advanced Placement (AP) exam and tend to take more AP exams. We also find that relatively younger students are more likely to attend two‐year colleges before attending four‐year colleges and are less likely to have earned bachelor's degrees four years beyond high school graduation, but eventually catch up to their older peers six years beyond high school graduation.     

The Strategic Nature of Compliance: An Empirical Evaluation of Law Implementation in the Central Monitoring System of the European Union

This compliance study models correct and timely implementation of policies in a multilevel system as a strategic game between a central monitoring agency and multiple implementers and evaluates statistically the empirical implications of this model. We test whether compliance is determined by the anticipated enforcement decision of the monitoring agency and whether this agency is responsive to the probability of enforcement success and the potential sanctioning costs produced by noncomplying implementers. Compared to other monitoring systems, the centralized monitoring system of the European Union (EU) is praised for exemplary effectiveness, but our findings reveal that the monitoring agency refrains from enforcing compliance when the probability of success is low, and the sanctioning costs are high. This results in a compliance deficit, even though the selective enforcement activities of the monitoring agency are almost always successful before court.