Fiscal Explanations for Inflation: Any Evidence from Transition Economies?

Recent arguments, motivated partly by the new fiscal theory of price level, suggest that fiscal deficits undermine price stability in transition economies. This paper addresses these claims by examining vector-autoregressive models of inflation for three transition economies (Bulgaria, Romania and Russia). The results indicate that fiscal deficits have increased inflation in Bulgaria and Romania but not in the case of Russia. In Bulgaria and Romania, money aggregates and exchange rate have also been more influential to inflation than fiscal deficits. The analysis based on this method therefore suggests that while fiscal deficits have some influence on inflation, monetary factors mostly determine inflation in these three countries.     

Purchasing Power Parity in Three Transition Economies

This paper uses cointegration analysis on monthly data over April 1994-December 2000 to test the relevance theory of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) for two advanced transition economies (Poland and the Czech Republic) and one lagging transition economy (Romania). PPP is not rejected between the lagging reformer and developed market economies, but is rejected between the advanced reformers and the developed economies. However, PPP is not rejected between the two advanced transition economies, though it is rejected between the lagging and advanced transition economies. The evolution of the real exchange rates over 1994-2000 suggest that a significant explanation for these findings is the central role of the exchange rate in the disinflation strategies of Poland and the Czech Republic in the early part of this period, in contrast to the managed float followed by Romania throughout the period.     

Where Size Matters: Agglomeration Economies of Illegal Drug Markets in Philadelphia

There is a debate over whether police attention focused on an illegal drug market causes dealers to spatially displace their activities “around the corner” therefore having no positive impact on the aggregate level of illegal drug sales in the city. The alternative perspective is that focused police attention lowers the rate of illegal drug sales in the city. Recent research in Jersey City, New Jersey has demonstrated that focused police attention does not simply move illegal drug dealing around the corner. The present analysis explains why this finding is likely to be common in other cities using the economic theory of “agglomeration economies.” Agglomeration economies illustrate that taking the largest and most profitable site from illegal drug dealers will make dealing in the surrounding neighborhoods less rather than more profitable and lead to a smaller marketplace overall. The empirical analysis focuses on Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.     

The Dynamics of Capital Structure in Transition Economies

This paper uses a dynamic unrestricted capital structure model to examine the determinants of the private companies' target financial leverage and the speed of adjustment to it in two transition economies, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. We explicitly model the adjustment of companies' leverage to a target leverage, and this target leverage is itself explained by a set of factors. The panel data methodology combines cross-section and time-series information. The results indicate that the Bulgarian corporate credit markets were less supply -constrained than those of the Czech Republic during the period under investigation. Bulgarian?companies adjusted much faster to the target leverage than Czech firms. The speed of?adjustment related positively to the distance between target and observed ratio for Bulgarian companies while the relationship was neutral for Czech companies. The conservative policies of Czech banks and the exposure control were likely responsible for the slower adjustment among the larger companies while the opposite were true for Bulgarian banks and companies.     

Company Law and Corporate Governance Renewal in Transition Economies: The Bulgarian Dilemma

The main objective of company law and corporate governance structures is to provide rules and secure efficient functioning of decision-making mechanisms that maximise the value of enterprises and safeguard interests of various stakeholders. Company laws and corporate governance models in different countries have evolved in specific historical, cultural, market and legal conditions that prevent their direct transplantation elsewhere. Assessing available experiences, former centrally planned European economies, engaged in sweeping transformations, are challenged by the need to recreate a delicate balance between investor protection and business discretion of managers to work for corporate value maximisation and social welfare. This essay undertakes an explorative discussion on the possible choices and the costs and benefits related to principalagent problem resolution in economies in transition, with special emphasis on institutions and the case of Bulgaria.     

Agricultural Prices in Transition Economies: The Case of Bulgaria and Slovenia 1,2

The paper studies the extent to which the transition in agricultural prices has satisfactorily been implemented in Bulgaria and Slovenia and the degree to which actual prices reflect the equilibrium conditions of the market. In Bulgaria, a model in which the new and old regime can co-exist, was estimated using the Kalman filter while in Slovenia, a market clearing supply-demand model for each agricultural product is estimated. The quantitative results show that the liberalisation process in agricultural prices is implemented in Bulgaria in a satisfactory way. The way of price determination is shifting from a cost-based approach to a market clearing one. The conclusions for Slovenia suggest that, at least for the period studied, convergence to a market clearing economy, as measured by the state intervention, is not as rapid as desired.     

The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun's Law Apply?

This paper investigates whether an Okun-type relationship between output and unemployment is taking hold in formerly planned economies as they move towards the market. Using a first-differences variant of Okun's Law, we test for its presence in 25 transition countries divided into groups of ``reform leaders'' and ``reform laggards.'' For leaders, represented by the 10 European Union (EU) accession countries, Okun's Law is detected in both 1991–94 and 1995–2000 periods. For laggards, represented by the remaining group, it is present only for the later period and only when countries affected by wars are removed from the sample. A comparison of unemployment–output elasticities and unemployment levels in EU candidates and EU members themselves indicates that their labor markets might be converging.     

Lessons from China: Russian foreign policy and its implications

Both China and Russia have undergone dramatic changes in the last 20 years. The Chinese elite have engaged in the changes with the preservation of the repressive aspects of Communist regime. This ensures stability and lead to the rise of China's economy. Russia dismantled the Communist regime with its repressive/controlling aspect and this lead to Russia's steady decline. At the same time Russia could express revival if it would follow the Chinese way.     

Financial Liberalization and Stock Price Behaviour in Asian Emerging Markets

This paper exhibits tests of the random walk hypothesis and market efficiency for seven Asian emerging markets as a result of the influence of financial market integration. Random walk properties of equity prices influence the return dynamic and determine the trade strategies of investors. To examine the stochastic properties of local index returns and to test the hypothesis that stock market prices follow a random walk, the single variance ratio tests of Lo and MacKinlay, as well as the multiple variance ratio test of Chow and Denning are employed. The multiple statistical comparison of variance ratios is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution with control of the joint-test’s size. The weak-form market efficiency is also tested directly, using a nonparametric runs test. These tests are particularly useful for investigating stock prices the returns of which are frequently not distributed normally. Documented evidence shows that, from the perspective of local investors, weekly stock prices in major Asian emerging markets do not follow a random walk in the pre-liberalization period. However, in the post-liberalization period the weak-form efficiency hypothesis is generally adopted at the 5% level except for the smaller stock markets of Indonesia and Thailand. These empirical findings suggest that financial integration affects the return predictability in such a way that domestic investors might not be able to develop trading strategies allowing them to earn abnormal returns.     

分析师跟进行为对上市公司资本成本的影响——来自中国证券市场的经验证据

证券分析师通过传递信息、降低分析信息的成本来增进整个市场的有效性.基于中国上市公司样本的研究发现,分析师跟进与股权融资成本具有负相关关系,分析师作为信息中介能够对资本成本产生影响,这也印证了Easle和O'hara提出的信息是经典三因素模型外影响资本成本另一重要因素的理论假说.对这一作用可能的解释是,分析师跟进能够扩大投资者基础,进而降低融资资本成本,实证结果证实了Merton提出的投资者认知假说.     

Testing the Information Structure of Eastern European Markets: The Warsaw Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the content of the information set used by the agents in the Warsaw Stock Exchange - WSE. Three “candidate variables” are examined — consumers’ prices, the zloty/US$ exchange rate and the refinancing rate of the National Bank of Poland — with respect to three WSE stocks, from different sectors of the economy. The methodology employed supposes that the innovations in the price series are orthogonal to all variables within or outside the information set. Beyond the question of how to specify the agents expectations, the WSE trading rules and the high volatility period present in all monthly price series were additional problems to render it operational. Given the solutions adopted, in only three out of the nine cases tested, it was possible to reject the null that the candidate did not belong to the information set. This is a signal that macroeconomic fundamentals are still absent from the WSE.     

我国证券市场结构突变与波动性实证研究

重大事件的发生会使证券市场波动率发生结构突变.通过修正ICSS算法检验,可以发现我国证券市场波动存在明显的结构变化.将结构突变因素加入波动率模型进行比较后,可以发现含结构突变的波动率模型能更准确地刻画波动率特征.再分别按照结构突变发生的时间点分割样本区间与构造虚拟变量两种方法,对含结构突变的波动率模型进行比较研究的结果表明:构造虚拟变量方法对我国证券市场的波动率建模能取得较好的统计效果.     

Affirmative Action in Women's Employment: Lessons from Canada

The use of affirmative action to increase women's representation in employment is recognized under European Community law. The European Court of Justice has identified affirmative action permissible under EC law and what constitutes reverse discrimination, deemed incompatible with the equal treatment principle. Despite these developments, gendered occupational segregation — vertical and horizontal — persists in all member states as evidenced by enduring pay gaps. It is widely argued that we now need national measures which take advantage of the appropriate framework and requisite political will which exists at the European level. Faced with a similar challenge, the Canadian government passed the Employment Equity Act 1986 which places an obligation on federal employers to implement employment equity (affirmative action) by proactive means. Although subject to some criticism, there have been some improvements in women's representation since its introduction. This article assesses what lessons might be learned from Canada's experience.     

School exclusions: Lessons from Northern Ireland

In Northern Ireland there are many fewer permanent exclusion from school than in England and Wales. It has been suggested that this may be linked to differences in the statutory schemes which regulate exclusion. This article compares the legal framework for school exclusions in Northern Ireland and England and Wales; provides a comparative analysis of the statistical data in relation to school exclusions; assesses whether the differences in the legal framework may have an impact on the propensity to permanently exclude; and considers whether there are any other non-legal factors which may explain lower rates of school exclusions. The overall objective is to see whether the legal differences which exist have a meaningful effect on the overall rate of school exclusion and to extrapolate best practice. In particular, the analysis focuses on experience of the statutory pre-expulsion consultation procedure in Northern Ireland, which has no equivalent in England and Wales.     

Parliamentary Democracy Online: Lessons from Europe

The relationship between parliament and new information and communications technologies (ICTs), in particular the Internet, is becoming ever more complicated. By means of conclusion, we highlight the key findings from our comparative study of four parliaments, the British, European, Portuguese and Swedish Parliaments, which have all adopted the Internet as an essential element of their parliamentary communication strategy. It is clear from our research that the Internet is already having a significant impact upon the operation of parliamentary institutions. Parliamentary and parliamentarians' use of the Internet has also raised important issues that ought to be considered cautiously by policy makers, and further academic study is important to the search for solutions.     

转型中国的司法价值观

对应于两次历史性社会转型以及第二次转型的三个发展阶段,当代中国的司法价值观发生了四次历史性变迁,即从为阶级斗争冲锋陷阵的政治司法价值观转变到为经济建设保驾护航的经济司法价值观,而后再演变为为社会稳定排忧解难的社会司法价值观,并走向为法治文明注译导航的衡平司法价值观。鉴于前三种司法价值观本质上都是法律工具主义的产物,是人治的变种,故有必要对其做历史性反思。唯此,型塑以"公正、廉洁、为民"为基本内核的多元衡平司法价值观方为可能。     

Fiscal Federalism in Transition: Evidence from Ukraine

Effects of fiscal federalism on redistribution and economic growth are analyzed for Ukraine, a country with large regional differences. Since there is virtually no such empirical literature, except a study of the German case, and since there are several potential flaws, the results must be interpreted in a very tentative way. We find that this relatively poor, disorganized country with little democracy has effectively redistributed income from relatively wealthy to relatively poor regions and thus promoted regional economic convergence, and even dampened the recession in both types of regions. We also find that the evidence does not reject the view that relatively poor regions used the transfers in a growth-conducive fashion, and the paper argues that the findings may have implications beyond the case of Ukraine. But the analysis is tricky, uncertain, and merely a small step to an interesting research issue.