Voting on Electoral Reform: A Comparative Perspective on the Alternative Vote Referendum in the United Kingdom

Referendums on electoral systems are relatively rare. In most countries changes to the electoral system are enacted through the legislatures. The British referendum in May 2011 is thus one of the rare examples. In this article it is shown that the apparently idiosyncratic factors in the referendum were consistent with general trends identified in other referendums. While the media focused on the harshness of the campaign, the referendum also resulted in surprising coalitions between long‐term foes, thus suggesting that the referendum contributed to cross‐party cooperation rarely seen in a majoritarian system like that of Great Britain.     

Bet Out the Vote: Prediction Markets as a Tool to Promote Undergraduate Political Engagement

ABSTRACT

Over the course of three semesters spanning the 2016 primary and general elections, we conducted a series of quasi-experiments to evaluate the effects of prediction markets on undergraduate interest in the political process. We gave several classes in our institution’s core American politics course the opportunity to collectively invest in election-related markets on PredictIt.org, and over two-thirds of our students reported that the exercise stimulated their interest in the elections and political process. Roughly half also reported reading more news articles because of their participation in the market. While our treatment group did not demonstrate statistically-significant improvement in tangential political awareness, knowledge, or engagement, our findings do challenge previous conclusions that prediction markets have limited capacity to motivate students in an introductory learning context.     

Foreign Aid Shocks as a Cause of Violent Armed Conflict

In this study we resolve part of the confusion over how foreign aid affects armed conflict. We argue that aid shocks—severe decreases in aid revenues—inadvertently shift the domestic balance of power and potentially induce violence. During aid shocks, potential rebels gain bargaining strength vis‐à‐vis the government. To appease the rebels, the government must promise future resource transfers, but the government has no incentive to continue its promised transfers if the aid shock proves to be temporary. With the government unable to credibly commit to future resource transfers, violence breaks out. Using AidData's comprehensive dataset of bilateral and multilateral aid from 1981 to 2005, we evaluate the effects of foreign aid on violent armed conflict. In addition to rare‐event logit analysis, we employ matching methods to account for the possibility that aid donors anticipate conflict. The results show that negative aid shocks significantly increase the probability of armed conflict onset.     

Economics and the Left Party Vote in Scandinavia: A Cross-National Analysis

While the literature on economic voting is vast, relatively little is known about how the economy affects party vote shares in Scandinavia per se. This article argues that left of center parties rather than incumbent governments per se bear the brunt of economic judgments at the voting booth. In large part this is due to these parties' preeminent role in establishing and maintaining the institutional welfare systems of these countries. We examine this hypothesis using pooled time-series data for Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden from 1960 to 1991.     

Anarchy as a Model for Network Governance

This article centers on two interconnected ideas that have garnered increasing attention in public administration: (1) a shift away from centralized institutional authority structures and (2) the concomitant rise of networks in the public sector. While network theories have been viewed as ushering in a new paradigm for understanding governance, they remain rooted in the language and framework of hierarchical bureaucratic systems. The author suggests that embracing an approach not grounded in a centralized institutional perspective may clarify network theories in public administration. Specifically, the author argues that anarchism has much to add to our understanding of networks and illustrates how an anarchist perspective may advance our understanding of networks in three areas—network formation, network stability, and accountability in networks—in which the hierarchical perspective has generated persistent questions.     

区域水资源共享冲突的网络治理模式创新

水资源是关系国计民生的重要战略性自然资源,具有多种属性。2009年世界水日的主题(跨界水:共享的水、共享的机遇)引发了各国对跨界水资源治理制度的关注。典型的市场治理或科层治理机制已经无法解决跨界水资源多维属性的复杂问题,其治理效果和效率在不断降低。本文从我国的水资源共享冲突区域现实及9+2合作区的构建出发,认为我国的区域水资源共享冲突治理需要借鉴西方的网络治理模式,以提高治理效率。西方学者提出的共享型治理、领导型网络治理和行政型网络治理三种不同的网络治理结构模式在我国不具备独立存在的环境,认为水资源的共享治理创新将涉及流域沿途的不同区域不同部门,以及同一区域不同层次的各部门。应该建立一种兼具领导型网络与行政型网络的复杂治理结构,即按照传统的自上而下层级结构建立纵向的权力层次,并按照新兴的各种利益集团组织建立横向的行动规则,形成区域公共物品或公共服务的共享供给和实施决策机制。     

论新时期“无直接利益冲突”矛盾预警与应急机制

“无直接利益冲突”是众多参与者与事件本身无关,只是表达、发泄一种情绪的社会冲突。其通常表现是起哄、扎堆、看热闹,严重的可引发骚乱。社会矛盾预警应急机制可有效预防和化解“无直接利益冲突”。新时期“无直接利益冲突”呈现出的新情况、新趋势、新动向等特征,迫需构建这种机制。构建这种机制,需夯实“地直接利益冲突”预警应急的基础,建设科学、高效的矛盾预警与应急系统。     

农民集中居住的利益冲突与协调机制构建

农民集中居住是农村宅基地经济潜能释放的结果,不可避免地会产生利益冲突.厘清中央政府、地方政府、被置换农户三大利益主体的利益边界,是分析和解决利益冲突的前提.农民集中居住的主要利益冲突是地方政府自利性与公共利益和被置换农户利益的冲突.应当完善城乡建设用地增减挂钩政策,理顺中央与地方的财政关系,遏制地方"以地生财"的利益冲动,秉承农民自愿原则,防止强拆强建,并建立公平合理的利益共享与社会保障机制.     

Forecasting the Vote: A Theoretical Comparison of Election Markets and Public Opinion Polls

Michael E. Sobel 421 Fayerweather Hall, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027 e-mail: mes105{at}columbia.edu The dominant methodology for short-term forecasting of electoraloutcomes uses trial-heat polls, where respondents report theircurrent electoral preferences (not their election-day predictions).Election markets, where self-selected participants trade sharesof candidates at prices predictive of election-day results,provide an alternative method that often produces more accurateforecasts. Consequently, increasing attention is being paidto this methodology. However, it is poorly understood and lackstheoretical justification. Surprisingly, the rationale for forecastingusing trial-heat polls has not been completely developed either.We develop the justification for using both election marketsand public opinion polls to forecast electoral outcomes, givingconditions under which each method performs ideally. For theideal case, we prove (under the reasonable assumption that marketparticipants are aware of the poll results) that the mean squareprediction error for the market forecast is smaller than thatof any forecast based on one or more polls. The case in whichthe assumptions supporting each method fail is also considered.It is often reasonable to expect that the best case resultshold approximately, in which case the market forecast shouldalso beat any poll-based forecast. We also compare the biasand variance of market and poll-based forecasts; our resultssuggest the utility of using the series of market prices tostudy the course of campaigns.     

The Externalities of Civil Strife: Refugees as a Source of International Conflict

Domestic strife and civil war frequently produce large population dislocations and refugee flows across national boundaries. Mass refugee flows often entail negative consequences for receiving states, particularly in developing countries. Moreover, civil violence frequently extends across national boundaries as “internal” conflicts are not constrained by borders. This article argues that refugee flows between states significantly increase the likelihood of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs) in that dyad. Refugee‐receiving states are more likely to initiate MIDs as they intervene to prevent further externalities, and refugee‐sending states initiate MIDs as they violate borders in pursuit of dissidents. Moreover, this research challenges conventional theories of international conflict that focus exclusively on distributional bargains between states. These propositions are tested in a quantitative analysis of the relationship between refugees and MID initiation, 1955–2000. Results confirm that refugees significantly increase the probability of international conflict.     

The Gapology of the Obama Vote in the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primaries

In their competition for the 2008 Democratic nomination, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton developed distinct demographic bases of support. This study will analyze the demographic divides in the 2008 Democratic presidential primaries, focusing on the “gaps” that emerged in the support of Obama. Obama’s demographic bases of support were African-Americans, younger voters, educated voted, those with no religion affiliation, wealthier voters, males, political independents, and ideological liberals. Despite the considerable amount of attention given to the gender gap, a number of demographic gaps were more significant. Race was by far the most important gap and a key component of Obama’s victory was his tremendous support from African-American voters.     

Fit for the Job: Candidate Qualifications and Vote Choice in Low Information Elections

Cues and heuristics—like party, gender, and race/ethnicity—help voters choose among a set of candidates. We consider candidate professional experience—signaled through occupation—as a cue that voters can use to evaluate candidates’ functional competence for office. We outline and test one condition under which citizens are most likely to use such cues: when there is a clear connection between candidate qualifications and the particular elected office. We further argue that voters in these contexts are likely to make subtle distinctions between candidates, and to vote accordingly. We test our account in the context of local school board elections, and show—through both observational analyses of California election results and a conjoint experiment—that (1) voters favor candidates who work in education; (2) that voters discriminate even among candidates associated with education by only favoring those with strong ties to students; and (3) that the effects are not muted by partisanship. Voters appear to value functional competence for office in and of itself, and use cues in the form of candidate occupation to assess who is and who is not fit for the job.

     

Truth and Reconciliation as a Model for Change in Response to #MeToo

The U.S. criminal justice system is designed to handle extreme cases of sexual misconduct, but the system has not adapted well to less extreme (but no less important) sexually inappropriate behaviors. As our understanding of sexual misconduct and impropriety evolves, the need for a new system of accountability seems apparent. The authors call for a new approach to providing justice for survivors/victims: the adoption of a truth and reconciliation model. This model involves providing a public forum for survivors/victims to testify to the events of their victimization and for offenders to admit previous wrongdoing, take responsibility, and ask forgiveness. While it is not appropriate for handling illegal behaviors, a truth and reconciliation model would be ideal for incidents that are not illegal but violate our evolving social norms.     

The “Role” of Nationalism in Chinese Foreign Policy: A Reactive Model of Nationalism & Conflict

A growing literature has sought to address the question of Chinese nationalism, and particularly whether or not its rise over the last decade could make China more prone to international conflict. Yet these discussions have often not been well grounded in either theories of nationalism or international relations (IR) theory. This paper will seek to fill this gap by using a constructivist approach to examine how nationalism is constituted by the interaction of states. By doing so, it will be argued that Chinese nationalism can best be understood as a reactive response to international events rather than domestic political manipulation. Michael Alan Brittingham is a visiting assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and International Studies at McDaniel College. He has previously taught at the University of Louisville. In 2005, he completed his dissertation entitled, “Reactive Nationalism and Its Prospects for Conflict: The Taiwan Issue, Sino-US Relations, & the ‘Role’ of Nationalism in Chinese Foreign Policy” in the Department of Political Science at the University of Pittsburgh. His current research interests include international relations theory, Chinese foreign policy, and nationalism.     

“Conservation” as a Catalyst for Conflict: Considering Stakeholder Understanding in Policy Making

Stakeholder negotiation processes are increasingly used in environmental management, but are often difficult due to values differences among stakeholders. These values can be reflected in the language used by stakeholders, which may lead to conflict in negotiation processes. This study investigated whether there are widespread differences among Colorado water stakeholders in how they define the term “conservation,” a key value and policy term, and whether this leads to conflict in negotiations. Using multiple methods in a cross‐sectional case study, use of the term and possible policy implications were analyzed. Stakeholder respondents in this study who had experienced difficulty in water negotiations also perceived a higher degree of miscommunication in their negotiations. The most important finding presented here suggests that clarity of language and transparent discussion of key value‐representative terms may aid in stakeholder negotiations, and that minority stakeholders may be more aware of values and language differences than their majority counterparts.