Interaction of real effective exchange rate with economic growth via openness of the economy: Empirical evidence from India

This paper examines the interaction between real effective exchange rate (REER) with select macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment, foreign institutional investors (FII), fiscal deficits, terms of trade, trade openness, and foreign exchange reserves from 1981–2017. Autoregressive distributed lag bounds test results confirm the existence of long‐run relationships among the considered variables. The study finds that among the selected macroeconomic variables, GDP and remittances have positive and significant impact on REER. The study also reveals that although the variables official development assistance, FII, and fiscal deficit have positive impacts on REER, the results are not statistically significant. Further, our study indicated that the speed of convergence of REER towards long‐run equilibrium is 30% per annum, which is below standard in nature.     

Sudpolitik: the political economy of Taiwan's trade with Southeast Asia

Abstract

In December 1993 the Taiwan government adopted a policy called nanjin zhengce or sudpolitik, a policy aimed at diverting part of Taiwan's trade and investment flows from China to Southeast Asia. This paper addresses the following questions: what is sudpolitik? why adopt such a policy? what are the economic, political, and strategic considerations in the pursuit of this policy? which countries are its specific targets? how do the countries directly affected by this policy respond to it? The paper also discusses the issue of Taiwan's aid in connection with sudpolitik. While the effectiveness of the policy is far from clear at present, the paper concludes with four observations: Taiwan's trade and aid are beginning to intertwine; Taiwan's diplomacy is largely economically or commercially led; Taiwan has achieved some positive results in improving its relations with Southeast Asian countries; and, Taiwan has reached a new stage in its economic development whereby it needs to invest overseas in order to sustain its economic growth. Overall, sudpolitik represents a novel step in Taiwan's diplomatic practice.     

Time inconsistency of monetary policy: Empirical evidence from polls

While the basic model of time inconsistency, put forward by Barro and Gordon (Barro, R. J., & Gordon, D. B. (1983). Journal of Political Economy, 91, 589–610) is widely accepted now, several authors have expressed serious doubts about the empirical relevance of the model in explaining inflation. Interestingly enough, few attempts have been made so far to test for the existence of inflationary biases empirically. Theory predicts a positive correlation between a monetary authority's relative preference for the high employment goal and inflation. Using polling data from six countries as a proxy for public preferences we provide empirical evidence in favor of the Barro-Gordon-model.     

On the political economy of national tax revenue forecasts: evidence from OECD countries

Sustainable budgets are important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians might thus have an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts, which are widely regarded as a key element of national budget plans. Looking at the time period from 1996 to 2012, we systematically analyze whether national tax revenue forecasts in 18 OECD countries are biased due to political manipulation. Drawing on theories from the field of political economy, we test three hypotheses using panel estimation techniques. We find support for partisan politics. Left-wing governments seem to produce more optimistic, or less pessimistic, tax revenue forecasts than do right-wing ones. Contrary to the theoretical prediction based on the “common pool” problem, we find that more fragmented governments and parliaments tend to produce more pessimistic, or less optimistic, tax revenue forecasts. We find no empirical evidence that political business cycles play a role in tax revenue forecasts.     

Good news and bad news: evidence of media bias in unemployment reports

This study employs information obtained from media content analyses, as well as economic and political data, to investigate negativity in unemployment news between 2001 and 2010 in Germany. The data indicate a substantial bias in terms of the amounts of negative and positive reports, compared with the actual development of unemployment. Moreover, the media tend to place negative unemployment reports more prominently than positive ones. The estimates suggest that the bias is not the consequence of journalists asymmetrically interpreting the official unemployment numbers. Instead, it is associated with the exploitation of often non-economic information and structural influences in the process of news production.     

Third party voting and the rational voter model: Empirical evidence from recent presidential elections

This paper attempted to demonstrate that a rational voter model as derived by Barzel and Silberberg (1973) can be used (with modifications) to explain third party voting in presidential elections. The empirical findings strongly suggest that the rational voter model is applicable in explaining third party voting. This conclusion likewise suggests that people who vote for third parties do so under similar motivations as people who vote for the major parties. Thus, people do not appear to regard votes for third parties as wasted votes or engage in the voting process in an irrational fashion. Lastly, votes for third parties represent the transmission of individual preferences by people who believe that their vote is important and that in the aggregate their signal may be interpreted as a signal to alter the direction of current policies as run by the major parties. Therefore, it does not appear from the evidence presented here that we should distinguish between or treat differently voting participation for the major parties versus the minor or third parties in presidential elections.The author expresses appreciation to Charles Campbell, Gary Pecquet, Paul W. Grimes, and James E. McClure for comments and criticisms. The usual caveat applies.     

The effectiveness of institutional borrowing restrictions: Empirical evidence from Spanish municipalities

The need for restrictions on borrowing by subnational governments is a generally accepted notion that is justified both by public choice theory and by the fact that such restrictions are in force in the majority of decentralized countries. Furthermore, recent breaches of the Stability and Growth Pact of the European Union have led to the introduction of legislative tools aimed at balancing the budget at all levels of government have come to the forefront of interest in European public finance research. This paper is concerned with the financial situation and debt level of Spanish municipalities from 1988 to 2000. We have two main objectives: the first is to assess the value of mandatory limitations on municipal borrowing and past trends in the borrowing policies adopted by Spanish local authorities. The second is to develop an econometric model using panel data stratified by population size to measure indebtedness in Spanish municipalities. These measures enable us to formulate a series of hypotheses to explain municipal borrowing practices, which are then tested empirically. The evidence thus obtained appears to support the effectiveness of institutional borrowing restrictions to introduce some financial discipline in the borrowing policies adopted by local governments in Spain.     

Fiscal consequences of public corruption: Empirical evidence from state bond ratings

Empirical analyses of public corruption focus predominantly on international differences; regional differences in public corruption within a single country receive little attention. We empirically investigate the effect of public corruption in the United States on state bond ratings, which previous research shows are inversely related to net interest costs on public debt. After controlling for various economic influences on bond ratings, we find that more corrupt states have lower bond ratings, which implies that taxpayers in more corrupt states face a negative pecuniary externality by paying a premium for debt.     

Environmental management amidst energy use,urbanization, trade openness,and deforestation: The Nigerian experience

This study empirically explores the linkage between urbanization and deforestation while controlling for the role of energy consumption, trade openness, and economic growth within recent data from 1971 to 2015. To do this, we employed the vector error correction‐Granger causality approach and Pesaran's autoregressive distributed lag cointegration technique. The Bayer–Hanck cointegration test establishes an equilibrium relationship among the variables. Results reveal that economic growth, energy consumption, and urbanization have a significant impact on deforestation in Nigeria, thereby reducing the quality of the environment. Short‐ and long‐run unidirectional casualty flows from urbanization to deforestation. Therefore, policies for reducing deforestation and enhancing environmental sustainability for growth and development were suggested.     

The political economy linkage between trade liberalization and domestic environmental regulations

This paper considers the political economy linkage between trade liberalization and domestic environmental regulations in a duopolistic product market. We investigate the environmental consequences and welfare implications of a home country’s unilateral tariff reduction on a polluting good. In a framework where the domestic environmental tax is subject to the influence of the home firm, we find that a tariff reduction on a good producing a consumption-type externality will improve the home country’s environmental quality. Moreover, we find that the home country’s tariff reduction will unambiguously enhance the home country’s welfare; and it will damage the foreign firm’s profits and thus the foreign country’s welfare, provided that the weight that the home government attaches to its social welfare is sufficiently small. This result also suggests the possibility that a unilateral tariff reduction will achieve a Pareto improvement.     

Public choice and the EPA: Empirical evidence on carbon emissions violations

This study provides evidence of public choice determinants of the penalties assessed by the Environmental Protection Agency for carbon emissions violations. Following the work of Stigler (1971), Peltzman (1976), Tollison (1982), and Tullock (1989), this study points out that powerful business interest groups are able to use their political influence to shape EPA environmental policy for urban areas. The statistical estimates presented here suggest that business groups have limited power (through lobbying activity) in affecting the probability of the occurrence of an EPA citation for carbon emissions violations, while they may have considerable power in influencing thedegree of an EPA citation for carbon emissions standards, once a citation occurs.     

The effect of trade openness on economic growth: Some empirical evidence from emerging market economies

This study investigates the impact of trade openness on economic growth in a panel of five emerging market economies, covering the data period from 1993 to 2016. Based on the panel estimation methods, the empirical results confirm the long‐run relationship among trade openness, economic growth, financial development, inflation, labour force, and technology, whereas the findings of long‐run elasticities show that trade openness has a positive considerable impact on economic growth. Furthermore, the heterogeneous panel non‐causality tests indicate the presence of a bidirectional causality between economic growth and inflation and a unidirectional causality that runs from economic growth to trade openness and economic growth to financial development in the short run. Finally, the findings suggested that trade openness plays a substantial role in promoting economic growth while also promoting economic development in these five emerging market economies.     

Public spending interactions and local politics. Empirical evidence from French municipalities

This paper aims at testing whether there exist spending interactions between French municipalities by estimating a dynamic panel data model. Our results suggest that there are some interactions between neighbouring municipalities as regards primary and investment expenditures. A positive relationship between municipalities’ wage bill and unemployment rates is likely to stress a rise of temporary employment in those municipalities that suffer from social troubles. Further, the estimation results show that these interdependences also exist between cities whose mayors have the same partisan affiliation. Finally, our results confirm the opportunistic behaviour of local governments, which increase all categories of public spending in pre-electoral periods     

The politics of unemployment: Rates of unemployment and labour market policy

This article analyses the claims advanced by Robert McKenzie about the distribution of power in British political parties. It considers McKenzie's mode of analysis (with particular reference to Labour), his definition of terms, selection of evidence and interpretation of it. The major argument is that McKenzie over‐generalised from the events of the 1950s and 1960s and that subsequent events have severely undermined his thesis.     

Impact of industrialization,urbanization, and financial development on energy consumption: Empirical evidence from India

This article examines the relationship between energy consumption, industrialization, urbanization, economic growth, and financial development in India from 1980 to 2017. The ARDL bound testing; Johansen & Juselius cointegration approach and Gregory & Hansen structural break cointegration technique confirm the long‐run relationship exists among variables. The result of long‐run analysis indicates that the industrialization, urbanization and economic growth play a vital role in increasing energy consumption in India. However, financial development indicates negative relation to energy consumption. The coefficient of error correction term is negative and statistically significant at 1% confidence level, it means last‐period's deviation from a long‐run equilibrium. It is clear from the results of Toda‐Yamamoto Causality, there is a unidirectional causality running from industrialization to energy consumption. However, there is bidirectional causality showing between energy consumption and urbanization, economic growth and energy consumption, and urbanization and Economic growth. Urbanization facilitates fuel switching, as decentralized rural energy sources like traditional wood‐burning are replaced by centralized energy sources. From the above findings, we argue that proper awareness should be made at the urban center regarding use of energy saving equipments and public infrastructure should be improved to harness the effect of urban agglomeration. As rapid development of energy intensive‐industries and economic activity in Indian economy, there is need of energy efficient technology in industry in order to reduce energy consumption.     

Fiscal illusion at the local level: Empirical evidence for the Flemish municipalities

Fiscal illusion refers to a systematically biased perception of fiscal parameters, due to demand-side error/ignorance or supply-side abusive behaviour. As such it is a component of a more general tax choice framework. This paper focuses predominantly on the empirical estimation of the four major sources of fiscal illusion, namely the flypaper effect, renter illusion and the complexity and elasticity of tax systems. The results — based on a dataset of 302 Flemish municipalities — on balance suggest the existence of important illusionary effects.     

The use of mindfulness to promote ethical decision making and behavior: Empirical evidence from the public sector in Thailand

The study has two main purposes. First, the study explores core ethical values and behaviors from the perspective of Thai public service organizational leaders. Second, the study investigates the extent to which public sector leaders in Thailand consider Buddhist-based mindfulness practice to be a potentially effective mechanism for reinforcing core ethical values and behaviors in the public sector in Thailand. Using interview data derived from in-depth semi-structured interviews with 12 senior public sector officials in Thailand, the analysis elicits four dimensions of core ethical values and behaviors that are perceived by Thai public service organizational leaders as central to ethical behavior in the public sector. The study also sheds light on the interviewees' positive perceptions towards mindfulness and the role its associated practices can play in promoting ethical decision making and behavior in the public sector in Thailand.