Modeling proximity and directional decisional logic: What can we learn from applying statistical learning techniques to VAA-generated data?

ABSTRACT

Voting advice applications-(VAA) generated data provide an ideal data source for testing competing theories of voting behavior. To that end, this paper focuses on comparing metrics of voter-party ideological concordance based on rival theories of issue voting (proximity and directional theory). Classification performance of the competing models, in terms of correctly predicting party choice, is evaluated in diverse cross-national settings. Drawing on the EUvox dataset (a VAA for the European Parliament elections in 2014) statistical learning techniques are used to model the decisional logic of voters in high- and low-dimensional policy space. The results show that statistical learning methods can improve classification performance significantly and that how dimensionality is modeled affects the performance of competing issue voting models.     

How can interactions among interdependent structures,institutions, and agents inform financial stability? What we have still to learn from global financial crisis

How national financial systems can avoid costly banking crises is a persistent and intriguing question for institutional scholars and policymakers worldwide. In this context, although considerable research has recently focused on structural, institutional, and agency-level factors in explaining the global financial crisis, it mostly offered each of these explanatory factors in isolation, thus leaving interactions among these interrelated factors incomplete. Building on a deviant case study on Australian exceptionalism examined in a comparative perspective, this paper introduces an integrative framework that views financial stability as a function of these interactions that reinforce prudent financial behavior. In doing so, it offers an insight into the previous research on institutional complementarity and how to guard against similar crises in the future. It suggests that financial stability (instability) is more likely when interactions among structural and institutional complementarities and agents reinforce conservative (opportunistic) banking.     

What is wrong with job security?

Most Western studies into motivation suggest that public servants are prosocial. Moreover, scholars suggest that a desire for external rewards, like pay and job security, may crowd out prosocial proclivity. However, recent studies from non‐Western contexts provide mixed results about the actual drivers of public servants' motivation to seek and retain public sector employment and perform their duties. To advance the development of theory regarding motivational dynamics of public servants in developing countries, we examine how pursuing external rewards impacts public service motivation, job satisfaction, and turnover intention among public servants in Kazakhstan (n = 627), a developing former Soviet republic that has been subjected to various waves of personnel reform. Our quantitative and qualitative data show that a desire for job security relates positively to public service motivation and job satisfaction, whereas a desire for monetary rewards correlates negatively with public service motivation and positively with turnover intention. We conclude with the implications for theory and practice.     

What can we Learn from the First Major Statement of Labour’s Economic Policy under Keir Starmer?

Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, Anneliese Dodds, recently set out the first major exposition of economic policy under leader Keir Starmer. Covering a lot of ground, she gave insights into current Labour thinking on macro and micro policy. Much of the speech was aimed at emphasising the fact that Labour would be ‘responsible’, an attempt to reassure voters as well as markets. But there is plenty of room for radical approaches within this framework, so exactly what this all means for practical policy is still to be determined.     

How can we better align private security with the public interest? Towards a civilizing model of regulation

How can we better align private security with the public interest? This question has met with two answers in the literature on private security regulation, one seeking to cleanse the market of deviant sellers, the other to communalize the market through the empowerment of buyers. Both models of regulation are premised upon a limited neoclassical economic conception of how market transactions map onto the public interest. This article makes the case for a new model of regulation, one that seeks to civilize the market. Drawing upon the insights of economic sociology, our model regards the market for security as a moral economy in which commodity and non‐commodity values jostle and collide. On this basis, we propose a regulatory architecture where buyers and sellers are cast not only as economic actors but also as moral actors, revealing new avenues through which to encompass private security within the democratic promise of security.     

Policy or person? What voters want from their representatives on Twitter

Social media have the potential to transform democracies as they allow for direct contact between representatives and represented. Politicians can use social media to show their policy positions but they can also give insight into their private lives. Based on survey experiments in Germany and Switzerland we show that social media messages about politicians’ private lives rather deter voters. Instead, we find that voters prefer candidates that communicate policy positions. The effect of a policy-oriented communication style on Twitter can even lead to appreciating a politician from a different party in Switzerland, which has an electoral system that gives a strong incentive to cultivate a personal vote.     

What do we really know? The effect of reporting thresholds on inferences using environmental right‐to‐know data

Environmental right‐to‐know regulations require regulated entities to publicly disclose measures of environmental performance but exempt entities from these disclosure requirements if they manufacture, process, or use a chemical below some threshold level. Environmental right‐to‐know data are widely used to assess environmental performance by academics, regulators, non‐profit organizations, and the public. This paper uses data from Massachusetts to estimate the effect of reporting thresholds in environmental right‐to‐know programs on the validity of inferences using data from these programs. The analysis indicates that errors in inference introduced by reporting thresholds may be significant. Up to 40% of the observed decline in reported toxic releases in Massachusetts may be attributed to non‐reporting due to the reporting thresholds. In addition, quartile rankings of facilities may be in error up to 45% of the time when behavior around the reporting thresholds is not taken into account.     

Intelligence,crises and security: Lessons from history?

The scholarly study of intelligence has grown steadily into what is now a distinct sub-field of history and political science. Recent events – notably jihadist attacks on the US, Spain and the UK and the war on Iraq and its aftermath – have generated debate and controversy about the use and representation of intelligence. A plethora of official inquiries have fuelled debates into the ‘intelligence failures’ involved. This essay explores how lessons might be learned from the history of intelligence for contemporary debates and controversies. An overview of the issues includes discussion of how different approaches are apparent between American and British perspectives. Challenges and opportunities for applying lessons from the past are explored and a case is made for greater engagement between academia and officialdom.     

Voter turnout: How much can we explain?

This paper evaluates the ability of common explanatory variables to predict who votes. Logit voting regressions are estimated with more than three dozen explanatory variables using survey and aggregate data for the 1979, 1980, 1984, and 1988 Canadian national elections. We find that the usual demographic variables such as age and education, and contextual variables such as campaign spending have significant effects on the probability of voting, but the models have low R2's and cannot predict who votes more accurately than random guessing. We also estimate regressions using past voting behavior as a predictor of current behavior, and find that although the explanatory power rises it remains low. This suggests that the difficulty in explaining turnout arises primarily from omitted time- varying variables. In some sense, then, it appears that whether or not a person votes is to a large degree random. The evidence provides support for the rational voter theory, and is problematic for psycho/sociological approaches.     

What can deliberative mini-publics contribute to democratic systems?

Can deliberative mini-publics contribute to deepening the democratic dimensions of electoral democracies? The question is framed in this article using a problem-based approach to democratic theory–to count as democratic, political systems must accomplish three basic functions related to inclusion, communication and deliberation, and decision making. This approach is elaborated with an analysis of a real-world case: a deliberative mini-public with a citizens’ assembly design, focused on urban planning convened in Vancouver, Canada. This example was chosen because the context was one in which the city's legacy institutions of representative democracy had significant democratic deficits in all three areas, and the mini-public was a direct response to these deficits. It was found that Vancouver's deliberative mini-public helped policy makers, activists and affected residents move a stalemated planning process forward, and did do so in ways that improved the democratic performance of the political system. Depending on when and how they are sequenced into democratic processes, deliberative mini-publics can supplement existing legacy institutions and practices to deepen their democratic performance.     

Irish civil society: rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic? A case study of fighting Irish social security retrenchment

Examining the politics of Irish responses to crisis-related social security cuts gives insight into Irish agency and how crisis has shaped the contours of Irish civil society. Despite assertions of lack of protest, Irish retrenchment was resisted and sometimes partially defeated. Using political sociology frameworks to explore interactions between institutional, ideological and interest variables in three case studies of defending cuts enables analysis of resistance strategies. There are tensions when short-term defensive resistance strategies undermine or limit offensive political coalition-building that might offer greater long-term solidarity and more sustainable resistance to intensification of the neoliberal Irish welfare state.     

Risky business? Evaluating market risk of equity investment proposals to reform social security

A number of options have been proposed to address the expected financing shortfall of Social Security in the next century. Most basic aspects of the various reform proposals are captured by the three options offered by the Advisory Council on Social Security in 1996. Common to all three options is that they would permit either public or private equity investment. This article discusses the economic risks involved in public and private equity investments as a funding solution for Social Security. To quantify the risks involved in equity investment, stochastic simulations are based on the economic assumptions of the 1998 Trustees Report of Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance in combination with different assumptions about the rates of return on bonds and stocks. For public equity investment, financial market risk remains significant for at least 40 years. For individual accounts, I find that the chance of doing worse than with Social Security or of falling into poverty in retirement is generally high, yet varies with income level, gender, family status, and employment history. In general, women, married workers with dependent spouses, or workers with incomplete work histories fare worse than men, single workers, or workers with complete work histories when compared either to the current system or to the poverty line. © 2000 by the Association for Public Policy and Management.     

Does social trust determine the size of the welfare state? Evidence using historical identification

Most modern welfare states offer an extensive array of services and benefits that are wholly or partly financed by tax revenue. One missing link in explaining the long-run sustainability of such comprehensive welfare states could be the already-existing stock of trust. Indeed, our cross-country results suggest that trust determines the size of welfare states as well as three features that are arguably necessary for their preservation: high levels of political confidence, strong legal institutions protecting private property rights, and low levels of bureaucratic corruption.     

What can a party say? How parties' communication can influence voters' issue ownership perceptions

Research has documented that issue ownership is an important aspect of voter behaviour. Therefore, issue ownership is an important asset for parties and one that they might try to improve on in order to enhance their electoral chances. Using survey experiments on a representative sample of Danish voters, the paper investigates what messages a party can convey to voters in order to improve its issue ownership – communicating its emphasis on the issue, its position on the issue, its links to the issue constituency, or its performance on the issue – across both valence and position issues. The results show the effectiveness of the latter two communication strategies thereby documenting that parties through their communication may affect voters' perceptions of their issue handling competencies.