巴基斯坦人口状况的特点

巴基斯坦人口状况令人担忧 ,经济发展和社会进步深受其害。巴人口状况呈现出以下几个特点 :居高不下的人口增长率、庞大的贫困人口、低下的人口素质、扭曲的城市化进程。虽然现在巴政府做出了新的努力 ,但考虑到巴国内的现实 ,短时间内人口问题将很难解决 ,前景不容乐观。     

Demography and Instability in the Developing World

Demography provides a framework for analyzing the effect of population on national security and a tool to assess how demographic trends in the developing world will influence conflict over the next twenty years. Population is connected to national security as an indicator of challenge and opportunity, a multiplier of conflict and progress, and a resource for power and prosperity. This indicator-multiplier-resource framework is then applied to the three influential demographic issues of the developing world: (1) youthful populations; (2) transitional age structures; and (3) urbanization. These diverse demographic trends reveal a growing divergence among states in the developing world and the need to continue to plan for the spectrum of warfare, though there will be an increasing number of supportive and capable states.     

当代拉丁美洲人口发展特点和趋势分析

自20世纪60年代以来,拉丁美洲的人口在经历了前期的快速度发展后,其增长率逐步减缓,预计在未来一二十年内,大部分国家将完成向着低生育率的人口转变。伴随这一进程,拉美人口的年龄结构也迅速发生了变化,未来老龄化的趋势将明显加速。过去拉美曾长期大量吸纳外来移民,但从50年代中期起在整体上已逆转为人口的净迁出,成为世界上国际人口迁移的重要来源地。     

论全球治理中的大众传播效应

全球化时代的来临使全球治理问题受到高度关注。而全球性大众传播将在其中扮演一个日益重要的角色。本文在分析大众传播在全球治理中的复合性效应的基础上 ,通过对全球治理的理念层面进行解构和重塑 ,一种符合信息网络社会特性的“重叠共识”无疑将给人们带来新的启示。     

全球公民社会与国际政治中的正义问题

随着经济全球化在社会各方面的展开,全球正义逐渐成为学术界全球范围内的话题.通过剖析思想家们对于全球正义的理论和逻辑,我们发现,对全球正义的理解必须从历史演变的社会生产和交往结构中去加以说明,全球正义是历史的正义体系.在全球化背景下,全球公民社会的发展是理解未来全球正义秩序实现的关键.因此,在全球公民社会创造的平台上,积极推进全球政治民主化,谋求实现全球正义,是当今时代的一个极其重要的历史任务.     

Demography and democracy: the impact of youth cohort size on democratic stability in the world

The traditional explanations for the survival of democratic systems mostly include economic and cultural variables. Only rarely has attention been given to the age structure of a society. This article introduces a hypothesis involving the ‘youth bulge’ concept popular in conflict studies. It is hypothesized that democratic countries with proportionally large male youth cohorts are more likely to become dictatorships than societies with a smaller share of young men. A causal link between demography and democracy is assumed to exist because young men are the protagonists of virtually all violent political action as well as political extremism with a potential to threaten democracy. Strong evidence supporting the hypothesis is found using data for 110 countries in the period from 1972–2009.     

试论全球性议题与全球政治的新发展

在全球化大背景下,随着国际金融危机的深化,世人的眼光聚焦于全球性议题和全球政治的重大发展变化:挑战激增,议题转换.重点转移,合作共治得到强化,国家权力与作用有了某种回归,全球政治中的力量对比发生了令人瞩目的深刻变化,并迅速而深刻地改变着全球战略格局.     

关于中国的全球治理研究

全球化不仅使世界各国相互联系、相互影响,甚至“相互依存”,而且产生了种种高度复杂的全球问题,国家之间的关系日益复杂化,国家与非国家行为体之间以及各类非国家行为体之间的互动也在加强。全球问题的增加和积累使自从1945年以来的“国际治理”(international governance)漏洞百出,捉襟见肘,“全球治理”(global governance)则变得日益必要和迫切。全球化和全球问题是全球治理的根本依据。全球治理是当今世界最强烈的政治呼吁之一。全球治理概念及理论的逐步提出和深化是对传统政治理论和国际关系理论的重大挑战。主要在西方产生和发展的…     

全球地下经济发展态势

地下经济由来已久。近 10年来 ,地下经济中的非法和犯罪势力以其独特的运作方式在一国乃至全球迅速扩张 ,其力量和影响力不断增长 ,给世界经济蒙上了一层阴影 ,并造成全球性威胁。遏制地下经济的发展 ,已成为整个国际社会的努力方向。全球地下经济的现状、特点及成因地下经济是当前世界范围内的一种普遍现象 ,被国际社会公认为“经济黑洞” ,国际货币基金组织一份报告估计 ,1998年 ,全球地下经济规模约为 9万亿美元 ,占全球产出的2 3%。其中非洲地下经济的规模占国内生产总值 (ＧＤＰ)的 43.9% ;中、南美洲占 38.9% ;亚洲占 35 % ;前苏联成…     

Shifts in Global Power Gravity

Currently Europe is becoming the Europe of the eurozone,and the U.S.is returning to the Asia-Pacific,intending to create a pacific world of America.However,no any country can monopolize the interests of the region.The correct way is to promote regional devel opment,corporate governance and mutual sharing of achievements.     

应对气候变化的全球攻略

气候安全是一个事关各国发展和人类生存的重大全球热点问题,引起国际社会的高度关注与重视。为了遏制日益加剧的温室效应势头,中国和其他各国积极采取防范措施和应对行动。但在国际合作层面,由于发达国家态度较为消极,进展不大。解决地球气候变暖问题任重道远。     

2005年世界恐怖活动评析

从常规战争的角度来看,2005年是比较平静的一年,在所有国家间都没有发生国际法意义上的战争.但是从非常规冲突角度上分析,2005年又是非常动荡不安的一年,不仅中东、南亚的恐怖活动迅速增加,而且西欧这个近几年来相当安全的地区,也因为伊拉克战争等问题而遭受了严重的恐怖主义威胁.     

The Global Strategic Picture in 2012

The international strategic landscape was highly volatile and complex in 2012, and there were a number of salient features worthy of special attention. These salient features will likely persist as basic trends of the global strategic picture in the coming five to ten years.     

China's Basic Role in Global Governance

正The relations between China and global governance can be defined and explained in the following aspects:history of China's presence in global governance institutions,China's current relations with global governance institutions,China's role in leading institutions of global governance(such as UN Security Council and G20)and China's future contribution to global     

世界正经历前所未有的大调整

2017年既是美国次贷危机爆发10周年和俄国十月革命胜利100周年,也迎来举世瞩目的中共十九大,世界大发展大变革大调整全面深化。在经济领域,历经近十年的动荡调整,世界经济渐呈清晰复苏态势,但深层结构性问题依然待解。在大国关系与国际安全领域,随着多极化深入发展,大国博弈水涨船高,国际安全风险明显加剧。在社会政治领域,各种社会政治乱象与转型风险进一步凸显。在全球治理领域,既有治理议程艰难推进,多边治理体系亟待升级。     

Global Governance Reform

President Barack Obama has trumpeted a ＂new era of engagement＂ for the United States. The central components of his strategy include a world order characterized by peaceful accommodation between established and rising powers; the collective management of transnational problems; and the overhaul of international institutions to reflect these shifting power dynamics and the new global agenda. Placing less emphasis than his predecessor on the pursuit of American primacy, Obama envisions--indeed, insists-that other global powers assume new responsibilities. Notwithstanding its multilateral instincts, though, the Obama administration is limited in its practical ability to promote and embrace sweeping reforms to global governance. Therefore, rather than casting its lot entirely with universal organizations like the United Nations, the United States will adopt a pragmatic approach to international cooperation that combines formal institutions with more flexible partnerships to achieve US national interests. The balance sheet for Obama＇s first year in office underscores both the opportunities for and the constraints on global governance reform in the current geopolitical environment.     

全球海盗问题综述

海盗作为一种古老的历史现象 ,在现代社会又卷土重来 ,并和全球其他有组织的犯罪活动 ,如毒品走私、人口贩卖、军火交易 ,甚至与恐怖主义同流合污 ,从而成为当今世界的一项重要威胁。一、海盗的兴衰及海盗定义的演变海盗是伴随着人类社会征服海洋过程中逐步产生与发迹的 ,自从有了海上贸易 ,就出现了以此为生的海盗。各国对海盗的认知及定义 ,都是在漫长的历史岁月中 ,根据海盗对本国利益所造成的实际威胁程度几经反复而确立的。这些定义迄今仍为各国所延用。海盗的出现依据文字记载大概已有 30 0 0年左右的历史 ,最早对海盗进行文字描述大…