马克思是如何阐述共产主义前提条件的?

共产主义的前提条件是什么?如何才能实现共产主义?这既是国际共产主义运动中难以回避的课题,同时也是社会主义实践或共产党领导执政中必须始终头脑清醒、心中有数的大问题。然而事实上,由于在这方面长期存在模糊认识,导致无论在运动还是实践中极“左”现象时有发生,甚至如同挥之不去的噩梦。文章根据“老祖宗”的有关论述,强调共产主义作为一种客观历史进程,必然要以现代生产力的普遍发展和以人类相互依赖为基础的世界性普遍交往为前提。由“两个普遍”所决定,实现共产主义本质上具有“自然历史”的属性与特征。     

Roll Calls, Party Labels, and Elections

We develop a model of legislative policymaking in which individuallegislators are concerned with both policy and reelection. Legislators'preferences are private information, and they have two meansof communicating their preferences to voters. First, they eachhave a "party label" that credibly identifies an interval withinwhich their ideal points must lie. Second, their roll call votesmay convey additional information about their preferences. Eachlegislator must therefore tailor his or her votes to his orher district in order to forestall a reelection challenge fromthe opposing party. In equilibrium, nonsincere voting recordswill occur mostly in moderate districts, where extreme incumbentsare vulnerable to challenges from relatively centrist candidates.In those districts, the most extreme legislators may even chooseto vote sincerely and retire rather than compile a moderatevoting record. Thus, both roll call scores and candidate typeswill be responsive to district type. An empirical test of shiftsin roll call scores of retiring House members in moderate districtsconfirms these findings.     

Extreme right-wing voting in Germany in a multilevel perspective: A rejoinder to Lubbers and Scheepers

Abstract.  In their article about individual and contextual characteristics of the German extreme right-wing vote in the 1990s, Lubbers and Scheepers ('Individual and contextual characteristics of the German extreme right-wing vote in the 1990s: A test of complementary theories', European Journal of Political Research 38 (2000): 63–94) found a contra- intuitive significant negative relationship between unemployment rate and an individual's likelihood of voting for the right-wing extremist Republikaner Party. The purpose of this article is to shed light on the reasons for this puzzling result. To capture contextual information resembling the individual's life sphere as close as possible, we use data that allow us to include the districts as an additional level between the individual and the state in our multilevel analyses.     

Science and the climate change regime

Given rapidly increasing losses from extreme climate events, the world community already has a common interest in action to mitigate and adapt to climate change. However, this common interest is not well served through continued promotion of either mandatory (legally-binding) policies or do nothing policies by various participants in the regime established by the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. The common interest would be better served by a third way, comprised of voluntary no regrets policies that are commensurate with the limited political power of the regime and already have succeeded on small scales in reducing vulnerabilities to extreme climate events and in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Both mandatory and do nothing policies, as well as the regime itself, have depended upon scientists for political support in the past. But scientists might better serve the common interest of the world community through support of a third way in the future.     

In From the Cold? Christian Parties in Scandinavia

The combination of extreme religious homogeneity and advanced secularization is a special feature of the Scandinavian societies as compared to the rest of Europe. This difference largely explains why Christian parties have remained small compared to the rest of Europe. This article surveys the creation and popular following of the Christian parties in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. The four parties acquired an image of "moral vigilantes" from the beginning. Their best electoral results, however, are a result of a more general political protest. Despite the recent success of the Swedish party, the parties are not likely to reach a position beyond that of a minor party with basically a moralist image.     

Moderat bevorzugt, extrem gewählt. Zum Zusammenhang von Präferenz und Wahlentscheidung in räumlichen Modellen sachfragenorientierten Wählens

This article demonstrates, on the basis of survey data from the 2005 German national election, that voters often systematically choose more extreme parties than warranted by their own preferences. Estimation of Grofman’s (1985) spatial discounting model reveals that party preference and vote decision follow different utility functions. Preferences turn out to be purely proximity driven, i. e. voters prefer parties with positions close to their own. Moving from preference to the vote of the top-ranked alternative, a devaluation of party positions and a significant shift in voter utility towards more extreme parties is observed. These results show that voter behaviour may change, even though voter preferences remain unchanged. Results also suggest that the remarkable success of FDP and Linke in the 2005 election is more likely due to shifting behaviour by moderate voters rather than to sweeping changes in the German electorate’s preferences toward welfare policy.     

Beyond the Developmental State: The Cultural Roots of "Guerrilla Capitalism" in Taiwan

This article seeks to contribute to the emerging literature on moving "beyond the developmental state" by tracing the important role of "guerrilla capitalism" in Taiwan's political economy. The success of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with little linkage to the state in Taiwan strongly suggests that more than state leadership must have been involved in the island's "economic miracle." The SMEs are quite important for the overall economy, especiaiiy the export sector where they have long accounted for more than half of total exports. Their success has resulted from the practice of "guerrilla capitalism" which includes aggressive and even audacious pursuit of business opportunities, extreme flexibility in rapidly filling even small orders, atten tion to quality and design, audacious bidding, participation in complex networks of subcontracting, and only partial observation at best of government regulations and international laws, such as those regarding intellectual property rights. The emergence of guerrilla capifalism, in turn, can be explained by the long-sfanding challenge in Chinese history to "official" Confucianism by a "heterodox counterculture" that is quite conducive to entrepreneurship and small-scale business activities.     

Managing Intergovernmental Responses to Terrorism and Other Extreme Events

Coordinating response operations to extreme events is an extraordinarilycomplex task for public managers. The performance of the intergovernmentalsystem is examined in the context of the events of 11 September2001 from the theoretical perspective of complex adaptive systems.A model of auto-adaptation is proposed to improve intergovernmentalperformance in extreme events. This model is based on the conceptof individual, organizational, and collective learning in environmentsexposed to recurring risk, guided by a shared goal. Such a modelrequires public investment in the development of an informationinfrastructure that can support the intense demand for communication,information search, exchange, and feedback that characterizesan auto-adaptive system.     

Program evaluation and the commissioning entity

The present decade has witnessed a shift from planning to emphasis on program performance and accountability. However, program evaluation must contend with many different policy preferences articulated by groups and institutions involved with social programs. In particular, the entity commissioning an evaluation expects some policy dmileage from the undertaking. Evaluation intended as an aid to decisionmaking cannot afford to separate the program under study from its organizational and political context.Federal categorical social programs like Head Start fill many needs for many groups. Evaluation preoccupied with experimental rigor often underestimates the need to adapt to political and administrative realities. At the other extreme, excessive accommodation to program ideology and organizational self-interest undermines the credibility of the evaluative process.Its limitations notwithstanding, program evaluation does yield informed policy alternatives. It invites rational public discussion of social programs and adds substance to the process of political bargaining.     

Returning to a Sane Foreign Policy

The next president of the USA will surely correct some of the Bush administration’s most egregious policy errors, particularly its gross insensitivity to the rest of the world’s opinions and its extreme bellicosity. To restore trust in American, and to strengthen national security, better diplomacy will be necessary. Strengthening a demoralized and nearly dysfunctional State Department by acknowledging the vital role foreign area experts must play will have to be a major part of the new administration’s policy.

Political extremism in the presence of a free rider problem

This paper provides an explanation for the emergence of political extremism in an environment in which a change in “ré gime” requires an investment that benefits more than one player. We show that in order to mitigate the effects of free riding, players may choose extreme positions. Further, we show that as the free rider problem becomes more severe, both parties move to more extreme positions in the same direction.     

Extreme right-wing voting in Western Europe

Abstract. In this study we explain extreme right-wing voting behaviour in the countries of the European Union and Norway from a micro and macro perspective. Using a multidisciplinary multilevel approach, we take into account individual-level social background characteristics and public opinion alongside country characteristics and characteristics of extreme right-wing parties themselves. By making use of large-scale survey data (N = 49,801) together with country-level statistics and expert survey data, we are able to explain extreme right-wing voting behaviour from this multilevel perspective. Our results show that cross-national differences in support of extreme right-wing parties are particularly due to differences in public opinion on immigration and democracy, the number of non-Western residents in a country and, above all, to party characteristics of the extreme right-wing parties themselves.     

Decision Making for Extreme Events: Modeling Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies to Aid Mitigation and Response Planning

Recent tragedies such as Hurricane Katrina, 9/11, and the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake have revealed a need for methods to evaluate and plan for the impact of extreme events on critical infrastructure. In particular, awareness has been raised of the threat that a major disruption will lead to cascading failures that cross boundaries between interdependent infrastructure sectors, greatly magnifying human and economic impacts. To assist in planning for such extreme events, researchers are developing modeling tools to aid in making decisions about how best to protect critical infrastructures. We present some of the capabilities of this modeling approach as well as some of the challenges faced in developing such applications based on our experience with the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIPDSS) model, developed for use by the Department of Homeland Security. A set of disruptions to road and telecommunication infrastructures is implemented in CIPDSS and the modeled disruptions to the original infrastructure as well as cascading effects on other infrastructure sectors are discussed. These simulations provide insights into the potential of this approach.     

Explaining right‐wing terrorism and violence in Western Europe: Grievances,opportunities and polarisation

What explains cross‐national variation of right‐wing terrorism and violence (RTV)? This question remains largely unanswered in existing research on the extreme right because (1) events data suitable for cross‐national comparisons have been lacking, and (2) existing analyses fail to capture RTV's causal complexity, which involve multiple causal paths (equifinality) comprising causal conditions that become sufficient for the outcome only in combination (conjunctural causation). To help fill these gaps, this article uses new events data in a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) research design, aiming to explain variation in the extent of RTV in 18 West European countries between 1990 and 2015. In doing so, the article identifies two ‘causal recipes’ that consistently distinguish countries with extensive RTV experience from those with low or moderate RTV experience. The first (North European) recipe involves the combination of high immigration, low electoral support for anti‐immigration (radical right) parties, and extensive public repression of radical right actors and opinions. The second (South European) recipe involves the combination of socioeconomic hardship, authoritarian legacies, and extensive left‐wing terrorism and militancy. Notably, both recipes contain elements of ‘grievances’ and ‘opportunities’, suggesting that these two theories, which are conventionally seen as contrasting, may be more fruitfully seen as complementary. Furthermore, a highly polarised conflict between far right activists and their enemies represents a third necessary condition for extensive RTV to occur. The article concludes by highlighting the paradox that countermeasures intended to constrain radical right politics appear to fuel extreme right violence, while countermeasures that may constrain extreme right violence would imply an advancement of radical right politics.     

Reassessing ideological bias in campaign participation

Until 1964, ideological conservatives tended to participate in presidential campaign activities at higher rates than liberals. Since then, Beck and Jennings (1980, 1984) have shown the variable nature of the participation-ideology relationship, arguing that ideologically extreme candidates have successfully mobilized their followers in particular elections. In this paper, we explain the anomaly of the 1980 election in which strong liberals participated at higher rates despite a very strong conservative on the Republican side. Using data collected over time in 1980 by the University of Michigan's Center for Political Studies (CPS/NES), we broaden the Beck-Jennings model to include participation during the primary season and hypothesize that mobilization of ideological groups may result from ideological candidatesand the competitiveness or closeness of a nomination contest. We find that the ideological candidate model explains general election participation to a significant degree, while competitiveness considerations are more important for mobilization during the primaries.     

What would delegates do? When and how the delegate paradox affects estimates of ideological congruence

The consensus that American politicians are more ideologically extreme than voters has been challenged by the observation that issue delegates – who adopt voters’ majority position on each issue – can be more extreme than the median voter. We show that this difference is conditional. Issue delegates are much more extreme than the median voter in left- and right-leaning constituencies, but not in evenly divided or ideologically pure constituencies. This means that these preference aggregation assumptions have a large effect on ideological comparisons between legislators and their party constituents, but little effect on comparisons between legislators and their general election constituents. We demonstrate this finding’s implications by replicating and extending two prominent studies. Although issue delegates representing full states are not much more extreme than the median voter, party issue delegates have moved to the extremes at nearly twice the rate of party median voters and are just as extreme as legislators.     

科学化视野下的廉政风险防控管理机制建设

风险社会理论认为,政治风险是现代化社会的常态问题,而腐败是政治风险的极端表现形式。在当前社会历史条件下腐败难以根除但可以控制。基于对人性规律和权力特性的正确认识,廉政风险防控管理已成为当前预防治腐的重要发展趋势。其关键在于通过权力流程再造来解决权力风险问题,全程地防范廉政风险向腐败行为的转化。     

Are voters cursed when politicians conceal policy preferences?

In campaigns, candidates often avoid taking positions on issues, concealing the policy preferences that would guide them if elected. This paper describes a novel explanation for ambiguity in political campaigns. It develops a model of candidate competition in which policy-motivated candidates can choose whether or not to announce their policy preferences to voters. It applies Eyster and Rabin’s (Econometrica 73(5):1623–1672, 2005) concept of cursed equilibrium, which allows for varying degrees of understanding of the connection between type (policy preference) and strategy (whether to announce). If voters updated according to Bayes’ rule, they would understand that candidates who do not announce positions are strategically concealing an unpopular policy preference. In equilibrium, only the most extreme candidates, those located furthest from the median voter’s position, would choose to take no position. However, if voters do not sufficiently appreciate the informational content of a non-announcement, unraveling will not occur and both extremists and more moderate candidates will not announce positions.     

Anti‐immigrant,politically disaffected or still racist after all? Examining the attitudinal drivers of extreme right support in Britain in the 2009 European elections

The elections to the European Parliament (EP) held in June 2009 marked a breakthrough for the extreme right British National Party (BNP), while in other European states extreme right parties (ERPs) similarly made gains. However, the attitudinal drivers of support for the BNP and ERPs more generally remain under‐researched. This article draws on unique data that allow unprecedented insight into the attitudinal profile of ERP voters in Britain – an often neglected case in the wider literature. A series of possible motivational drivers of extreme right support are separated out: racial prejudice, anti‐immigrant sentiment, protest against political elites, Euroscepticism, homophobia and Islamophobia. It is found that BNP support in the 2009 EP elections was motivationally diverse, with racist hostility, xenophobia and protest voting all contributing significantly to BNP voting. The analysis suggests that the BNP, which has long been a party stigmatised by associations with racism and violent extremism, made a key breakthrough in 2009. While racist motivations remain the strongest driver of support for the party, it has also begun to win over a broader coalition of anti‐immigrant and anti‐elite voters.