The effect of police on crime,disorder and victim precaution. Evidence from a Dutch victimization survey

Using individual data from a large-scale Dutch crime victimization survey, we are able to expand the analysis of the effect of police on crime to crimes types that do not easily find their way into police statistics, and to public disorder and victim precaution. To address heterogeneity and simultaneity in the relation between police and crime, we model the police funding formula – used to distribute police resources across municipalities – to identify the endogenous variation in police levels. We use the remaining variation in police levels to identify the effect of police. We find significantly negative effects of higher police levels on property and violent crime, public disorder, and victim precaution. The effect on victim precaution is a hitherto largely ignored benefit of higher police levels not reflected in lower rates of crime and public disorder.     

Risk Clusters,Hotspots, and Spatial Intelligence: Risk Terrain Modeling as an Algorithm for Police Resource Allocation Strategies

The study reported here follows the suggestion by Caplan et al. (Justice Q, 2010) that risk terrain modeling (RTM) be developed by doing more work to elaborate, operationalize, and test variables that would provide added value to its application in police operations. Building on the ideas presented by Caplan et al., we address three important issues related to RTM that sets it apart from current approaches to spatial crime analysis. First, we address the selection criteria used in determining which risk layers to include in risk terrain models. Second, we compare the “best model” risk terrain derived from our analysis to the traditional hotspot density mapping technique by considering both the statistical power and overall usefulness of each approach. Third, we test for “risk clusters” in risk terrain maps to determine how they can be used to target police resources in a way that improves upon the current practice of using density maps of past crime in determining future locations of crime occurrence. This paper concludes with an in depth exploration of how one might develop strategies for incorporating risk terrains into police decision-making. RTM can be developed to the point where it may be more readily adopted by police crime analysts and enable police to be more effectively proactive and identify areas with the greatest probability of becoming locations for crime in the future. The targeting of police interventions that emerges would be based on a sound understanding of geographic attributes and qualities of space that connect to crime outcomes and would not be the result of identifying individuals from specific groups or characteristics of people as likely candidates for crime, a tactic that has led police agencies to be accused of profiling. In addition, place-based interventions may offer a more efficient method of impacting crime than efforts focused on individuals.     

The Impact of Hot Spots Policing on Collective Efficacy: Findings from a Randomized Field Trial

In disadvantaged neighborhoods, prior research has found reduced social cohesion and less willingness among residents to address disruptive behaviors and violations of social norms. This deficiency is commonly associated with higher levels of disorder and crime. Therefore, recent scholarship has begun to consider whether police can help foster collective efficacy, especially in places struggling with serious crime problems. Early results are somewhat mixed. Yet the cooperation hypothesis asserts that when neighborhood residents see police as a more viable and reliable resource, residents will be emboldened to exert informal social control to address problems. Over the last two decades, hot spots policing has been recognized as an effective method to reduce crime. At the same time, there have been few rigorous studies of whether this approach impacts collective efficacy at hot spots. To investigate this question, we conducted an experiment in 71 crime hot spots, comparing a collaborative problem solving versus a directed patrol (police presence) approach versus standard policing practices. Over time, a substantial increase in police presence did appear to promote modest improvements in collective efficacy. We attribute this finding to the cooperation hypothesis.     

SPECIFICATION PROBLEMS,POLICE LEVELS,AND CRIME RATES*

Research on the relationship between police and crime, like many criminological topics, is subject to uncertain causal direction and omitted controls. We recommend procedures that mitigate these problems: the Granger causality test, proxies for missing variables, robustness checks, and making data available to other researchers. Because specification problems are common in the social sciences, this strategy has applicability beyond the issue of police and crime. We analyze yearly police data and UCR crime rates, at the state and city levels, pooled over two decades. We find Granger causation in both directions. The impact of crime on the number of police is slight, but the impact of police on most crime types is substantial. The latter result is more robust at the city level.     

Routine Activities and Proactive Police Activity: A Macro-scale Analysis of Police Searches in London and New York City

This paper explored how city-level changes in routine activities were associated with changes in frequencies of police searches using six years of police records from the London Metropolitan Police Service and the New York City Police Department. Routine activities were operationalised through selecting events that potentially impacted on (a) the street population, (b) the frequency of crime or (c) the level of police activity. OLS regression results indicated that routine activity variables (e.g. day of the week, periods of high demand for police service) can explain a large proportion of the variance in search frequency throughout the year. A complex set of results emerged, revealing cross-national dissimilarities and the differential impact of certain activities (e.g. public holidays). Importantly, temporal frequencies in searches are not reducible to associations between searches and recorded street crime, nor changes in on-street population. Based on the routine activity approach, a theoretical police-action model is proposed.     

GIS supporting intelligence-led policing

Tightening budgets and increased demand for public accountability has placed additional stress on already limited police department resources. Web-based crime mapping provides significant improvement over previous methods of information dissemination, allowing police departments to continue to work quickly and efficiently within these limitations. This modern technology has enabled a more proactive approach to policing, including intelligence led-policing and public facing crime maps. As such, officers are now able to better consider spatial patterns related to historic crime, and determine more informedly where crimes may occur in the future, and allocate their limited resources accordingly.     

Why Do the Finns Trust the Police?

Ideological trends in the criminal policy of the Nordic countries since the 1960s are analysed. Although criminal policy in these countries is not unified, one can argue for the existence of a 'Scandinavian criminal policy' characterized by several common features concerning historical tradition, intensive cooperation and a similar approach to crime prevention and control. The following trends and characteristics are examined in some detail: the cycle from criticism of the treatment ideology to a reappraisal of the role of the criminal justice system and the function of penal sanctions; the differentiation of criminal policy strategies (e.g. social and situational crime prevention, cost-benefit thinking, criminal law policy, sanctions policy). Discernible tendencies towards more unified or, at least, more harmonized criminal policies on the international and European level are also examined. Active participation in this developmental process is encouraged to ensure that the fundamental principles of Scandinavian criminal policy are properly utilized.     

Cumulative impact: Why prison sentences have increased*

Why has the probability of going to prison after a felony conviction increased since the early 1980s? Social scientists often try to answer this question through macro‐level research that is aimed at examining correlations between prison admissions and crime rates or sociopolitical characteristics of states. That type of macro‐level inquiry, however, does not allow for a close examination of how characteristics of offenders changed over time, and whether such changes are consequential for understanding trends in the use of imprisonment. In the current study, I take a different approach—one in which case‐level data are observed over a lengthy time span—to investigate why the likelihood of going to prison for a given crime persistently increased for several decades. The results of analyses of more than 350,000 felony cases sentenced in Minnesota during a 33‐year period show that the probability of a defendant receiving a prison sentence increased from 1981 to 2013, as would be expected. The primary reason for the rising probability of imprisonment was the significant increase in the average offender's criminal record, which more than doubled during the observation period.     

The direct and indirect impacts of organized crime on youth,as offenders and victims

While organized crime has an impact on youth that is both broad and direct, frequently it has a more substantial impact as a consequence of its indirect effects that are noted particularly at the community level. This report explores the impact of both traditional and non-traditional organized criminal activities on youth. It also discusses the effect of organized crime on public perception, vulnerable youth populations, and police resource allocation including both supply and demand reduction measures. The research on organized crime in this context is limited in a number of areas. Further research on the impact of organized crime on youth, for example, should include issues related to public perception and the collection of appropriate data. An ethnographic approach could also help expand our understanding of some of the impacts. Policy regarding internal (police) and external (public) communication of the local impact of organized crime should be examined, as well as that related to data entry, police resource allocation, and the issue of supply and demand reduction.     

Is problem-oriented policing effective in reducing crime and disorder?

Research Summary
We conducted a Campbell systematic review to examine the effectiveness of problem-oriented policing (POP) in reducing crime and disorder. After an exhaustive search strategy that identified more than 5,500 articles and reports, we found only ten methodologically rigorous evaluations that met our inclusion criteria. Using meta-analytic techniques, we found an overall modest but statistically significant impact of POP on crime and disorder. We also report on our analysis of pre/post comparison studies. Although these studies are less methodologically rigorous, they are more numerous. The results of these studies indicate an overwhelmingly positive impact from POP.
Policy Implications
POP has been adopted widely across police agencies and has been identified as effective by many policing scholars. Our study supports the overall commitment of police to POP but suggests that we should not necessarily expect large crime and disorder control benefits from this approach. Moreover, funders and the police need to invest much greater effort and resources to identify the specific approaches and tactics that work best in combating specific types of crime problems. We conclude that the evidence base in this area is deficient given the strong investment in POP being made by the government and police agencies.     

Information,apprehension, and deterrence: Exploring the limits of police productivity

The capacity of police departments to solve crimes and apprehend offenders is low for many types of crime, particularly crimes of profit. This article reviews a variety of studies of police apprehension and hypothesizes that an important determinant of the ability of the police to apprehend criminals is information. The complete absence of information for many types of crime places fairly clear upper bounds on the ability of the police to effect solutions.To discover whether these boundaries are high or low we analyzed data from the 1973 National Crime Panel about the types and amount of information potentially available to police through victim reports and patrol activities. The evidence suggests that if the police rely on information made readily available to them, they will never do much better than they are doing now. On the other hand, there appears to be more information available to bystanders and passing patrols than currently is being used, which suggests that surveillance strategies and improved police methods for eliciting, recording, and analyzing information supplied by victims and witnesses might increase the probability of solving crimes and making arrests. In light of this we review a few possibly helpful innovations suggested in the literature on police productivity and procedure.     

Gotham unbound Dutch style

An inquiry committee of the Dutch parliament concluded that the capital Amsterdam – and especially the famous Red light district – is a centre of national and international organized crime. The city of Amsterdam set up a project to develop and implement an administrative approach to combat the organized crime problem: the Van Traa-project. This project is internationally recognized as a successful example of such an approach. Elaborating on an evaluation study this article critically analyses the policy theory and the effects of this project. This analysis shows that the assumptions that underlie the project are debatable, or proved hard to employ in practice. Despite the fact that in the policy plans the necessity of a multi-agency approach is stressed, external parties such as the police and the public prosecutors department take a rather passive stand, preventing the administrative approach of becoming a part of a truly integrative approach to organized crime. Furthermore, this article proves that it is hard to confirm this successfulness in a sound scientific manner. Many positive results can be observed, but it remains unclear to what extent these results have an impact on organized crime. Although some indications of a plausible impact of the measures taken in the Van Traa-project on organized crime were found, this article also refers to some indications of counterproductive effects.     

The impact of neighborhood crime levels on police use of force: An examination at micro and meso levels

Purpose

Neighborhood contextual factors have gained a considerable amount of attention, relating neighborhood crime levels to police force. Prior research mainly examined the relationship either at the police district level or at the city level. The current study intends to investigate the relationship at lower levels of geographic aggregation.

Methods

Using Geographic Information System techniques, the current study utilized four radial buffer zones around each use of force incident location to measure the impact of neighborhood violent criminal activities at the micro level on the level of police force used. In addition, hierarchical linear modeling using neighborhood crime rates within police command areas allowed for a comparison study to measure the impact of neighborhood criminal activities at the meso level on police force.

Results

The current study found that neighborhood crime levels have a significant and positive effect of increasing the level of police force used at the micro level.

Conclusions

The current study supports the work of Black and Smith, concluding that more training and supervision are required for officers working in high crime areas.     

Strategic versus emergent crime groups: the case of Vietnamese cannabis cultivation in the Netherlands

This article addresses the nature and development of the Vietnamese involvement in cannabis cultivation in the Netherlands. The findings are based on empirical data collected from national police registrations, case studies and in-depth interviews with over 30 Dutch and international respondents. The authors describe the background characteristics of Vietnamese cannabis farmers, the structure of the predominantly mono-ethnic Vietnamese criminal groups and the international context. A situational approach to organised crime is applied to illustrate the ‘emergent’ character of the Vietnamese crime groups as opposed to a ‘strategic’ context of organised crime. The Vietnamese supervisors in the Netherlands have legal citizenship and often have ‘careers’ in cannabis-related crimes. It would appear that for a Vietnamese gardener or farmer, the path into cannabis cultivation is linked to financial debt. Besides situational factors, group characteristics, such as the migrant community, seem important in understanding the Vietnamese involvement in the Dutch cannabis market.     

New Challenges for Law Enforcement

Against a background of high crime across Europe, this paper argues that there is scope for improving police performance in detection. It also suggests that a more balanced approach to crime control is needed, with a shift in policy emphasis toward prevention. Both improved police performance in detection and the approach advocated for increased preventive effort are rooted in science. The specific role of science and technology in the context of crime control is considered and its implications for public policy and police training are briefly discussed. It is suggested that the problem-oriented approach to crime prevention, as increasingly practiced by the UK police and those in other jurisdictions, could be described as approaching scientific method, and perhaps be promoted as such.     

Cyrille Fijnaut: a pioneer from the low countries

ABSTRACT

Inspired by American pioneers in the field of police research like Jerome Skolnick, Cyrille Fijnaut resigned in 1969 as a police lieutenant from the police force in the city of Tilburg, the Netherlands in order to create the opportunity to study criminology and philosophy at the KU Leuven in Belgium. At the same university, he wrote in the years 1974–1978 his Ph.D. dissertation on the political history of policing in Europe since the Napoleonic Era. This thesis became the starting point of a rich career as a professor of criminology and criminal law at the Erasmus University Rotterdam, the KU Leuven, Tilburg University and NYU Law School (Global Law School Programme). Over the years, he became an internationally renowned expert in the fields of police and judicial cooperation, organized crime and terrorism, and the transatlantic history of criminology and the criminal justice system. In these and other fields he wrote some 50 books and edited some 50 volumes, and published more than 400 articles in academic and professional journals. In addition, he was one of the founding fathers of the Belgian journal of criminology and criminal law Panopticon and the European Journal of Crime, Criminal Law and Criminal Justice. He also served as an expert in some of Dutch and Belgian committees of inquiry, e.g. the committee that investigated the safety and security problems of Pim Fortuyn, the Dutch politician who was killed in May 2002. The Dutch government rewarded him with a Knighthood in the Order of the Dutch Lion, and the Belgian government appointed him Commandeur in the Crown Order.     

Improving forensic responses to residential burglaries: results of a randomized controlled field trial

Objectives

Residential burglaries (or break and enters) can cause great concern to the public but are typically a routine police job. The present study sought to evaluate an enhanced police approach to this high-volume crime by emphasizing police–victim interactions and more thorough forensic examinations.

Methods

Scenes of crime officers (forensic examiners) were randomly assigned to either a control (business-as-usual) or experimental condition. Officers in the experimental condition received additional training and resources to upskill them in DNA and fingerprint evidence collection and crime scene evaluation. Experimental officers also received additional training on procedurally just approaches to dealing with victims and were encouraged to be more thorough and spend more time at these high-volume crime scenes.

Results

The trial revealed that the enhanced, experimental, approach offered a number of benefits, including greater evidence collection, identification, and incidents solved. Further, this enhanced approach boosted victims’ perceptions of officers’ procedural justice and satisfaction with the procedures used. However, this approach was more costly in relation to time, and the additional collection of extra DNA evidence did not greatly add to the crime solvability of these incidents.

Conclusions

High-volume crimes such as break and enters have a significant impact on the victims and often go unsolved. This study provides causal evidence that enhancing officers’ attendance and attention to victims and evidence at these scenes can increase solvability and enhance victim experiences.

     

Rational cops,rational robbers,and information

The effectiveness of punishment as a deterrent to crime is commonly held to be a function of the severity and certainty of sanctions. The negative association found between crime rates and lagged clearance rates, which previously has been interpreted as a deterrence effect, is shown in this analysis to be largely an artifact of a misspecified measurement procedure. A more plausible hypothesis that police decision makers are informed and thus respond to changes in crime by allocating resources and making more arrests is supported by evidence from St. Louis data.     

White-Collar Crime and Police Crime: Rotten Apples or Rotten Barrels?

In the research literature on white-collar crime, there seems to be a tendency to claim individual failure rather than systems failure. Occupational crime is often emphasized at the expense of corporate crime. In the research literature on misconduct and crime by police officers, however, there seems to be a tendency to claim systems failure. It is argued that police crime is a result of bad practice, lack of resources or mismanagement, rather than acts of criminals. Based on two empirical studies in Norway of business and police crime, this paper is concerned with the extent to which the rotten apple theory versus the rotten barrel theory can explain crime in business organizations and police organizations.     

More police,less crime: Evidence from US state data

Economic theory suggests police and crime are negatively correlated. However, it is surprisingly difficult to demonstrate this relation empirically, as areas with greater numbers of crimes tend to hire more police. In order to resolve this simultaneity, we begin by exploring the structure of the financial relationship existing between state and local governments, arguing that variations in state tax rates can serve as an instrumental variable for local police numbers. Two-stage least square (2SLS) result show that the elasticity of police presence with respect to crime is about ?1.1 for violent crime, and ?0.9 for property crime. These results are mostly significant, and are more negative than those obtained under OLS. Overall, our estimations suggest that police does reduce crime.