中亚博弈:2005年俄稍占上风

俄美争夺中亚,是中亚国家独立后展现在国际上的一道风景线,数年间此起彼伏,争斗不止,总的趋势是俄退美进,但2005年则是俄稍占上风.     

Central Asia and regional security

This paper aims to analyze the politico-military cooperation among the Central Asian countries viewed as a key factor in ensuring the regional security. Today, the geopolitical tension in the surrounding regions, the worsening situation in Afghanistan, as well as intraregional socio-economic problems directly affect the security situation in Central Asia. In this regard, the question arises as to how well the Central Asian states are able to meet these challenges. The analysis of the situation in the region in the 1990s and at the beginning of the new century shows that attempts have been made to establish a regional security system based on military cooperation among Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. However, unregulated interstate relations in Central Asia, the lack of political will to cooperate with leaders of neighboring countries and the combination of external and internal threats have contributed to the creation of a regional security system based on the multilateral structures with the involvement of external actors.     

Keeping Central Asia stable

Contrary to optimistic assessments on the stabilising impact of the US troop deployment in Central Asia, the long‐term prospects for regional stability are far from certain. The American entry into Central Asia has complicated the geostrategic dynamics of the region and engaged the three great powers and regional players in intense rivalry for influence and leverage. If there was ever a ‘Great Game’ at play in the post‐Soviet era, it is now. The convergence of the great powers on Central Asia was justified in terms of anti‐terrorism. The toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan may have secured its northern neighbours from an imminent threat, but the direct involvement of US forces in Central Asia is not likely to contribute to regional stability in the long run.     

Public Sector Reform in Central Asia and the Caucasus

Many developing countries are constantly seeking to reform their public services as part of a wider agenda which supports moves to a market economy and better governance arrangements. Some have embraced public management reforms as the template for their activities with limited success. This paper considers existing research on the impact of public sector reform in developing countries and offers an alternative approach, through case studies of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Kazakhstan, based on two keys elements: an agenda which attempts to shift developing countries to an outcomes based accountability approach operationalized through a “quality of life” framework; and, peer‐to‐peer learning.     

中亚安全与安全合作

苏联解体后,中亚地区的安全问题一直是国际关注的焦点问题. 中亚地区的军事安全问题 简言之,中亚地区的安全问题可以分为传统安全问题和非传统安全问题.所谓传统安全是指以军事安全为核心的安全.从这个定义出发,中亚地区的传统安全问题依然占有十分重要的位置.中亚各国为捍卫和维护自身的国家安全利益,制定了一系列战略方针、政策和策略.独立后,中亚五国纷纷组建了自己的本国军队.但由于苏联解体过程过快,中亚五国独立进程是在很短的时间内完成的,这就决定了中亚五国在组建本国军队方面需要一个过程.     

Dugin,Eurasianism, and Central Asia

Eurasianism as a concept emerged among Russian émigrés in the 1920s, with the premise that Russia is a unique ethnic blend, primarily of Slavic and Turkic peoples. Its geopolitical implications for Russia include gravitation toward mostly Turkic Central Asia. Alexander Dugin, one of its best-known proponents, believes that the demise of the Soviet Union was simply a tragic incident. The people of the former USSR should again be united in a grand Eurasian empire, with Russia a benign and generous patron, providing its “younger brothers” clients economic largesse and defense, mostly against the predatory USA. The “orange revolutions” and the rise of Russian nationalism, for whose proponents a restored imperial presence is rather marginal, indicate that Eurasianism—along with the dream of the resurrection of the USSR—is becoming less viable.     

中亚三女杰

哈萨克斯坦总统纳扎尔巴耶夫的大女儿达里加·纳扎尔巴耶娃、乌兹别克斯坦总统卡里莫夫的大女儿古丽娜拉·卡里莫娃、吉尔吉斯斯坦总统阿卡耶夫的妻子迈拉姆·阿卡耶娃等都是当前活跃于各国权力中心的风云女性.她们凭借自身特殊的身份、地位和性别优势在国家政治舞台上施展自己的才华和抱负.从2005-2007年,随着中亚各国陆续进入总统换届的多事之秋,上述三位女性有可能脱颖而出,成为各自国家总统的接班人.     

Mobile entrepreneurs in post-Soviet Central Asia

In this paper I present an analysis of a mobile entrepreneur and his transnational economic activities in post-Soviet space. I argue that the space of informal economic activities of mobile entrepreneurs are structured by trust-networks in the sense Tilly (2005) uses it. In this context the concept of tirikchilik (an Uzbek term for ‘muddling through’ or survival) which defines the space of informal economic activities is important to decipher. Tirikchilik unifies various economic activities which vary from trade, service delivery, middleman services, administration and any kind of activity that generates some cash.     

The Failure of Presidentialism in Central Asia

Institutional design can impact the dynamics of power relations in Central Asian states. Majoritarianism and the rigidity of the fixed terms of presidential systems are amplified by the personalist regimes of Central Asia, often leading to instability. A parliamentary system may reduce the political repression of these regimes by decreasing the stakes in each particular election. It may also increase stability due to the higher flexibility of the system. The effectiveness of the parliamentary system, however, depends largely on the existence of strong cohesive parties.     

美国和中亚的地区主义

谋求建立地区永久合作机构的运动将受到几个层面因素的影响:第一,地区主义受到国家能力的限制.一般来说,弱国与弱国不会成为很好的伙伴.在地区层面上,人们普遍认为霸权能够产生坚固的合作,在其中占主导地位的国家寻求建立使其主导地位制度化的地区机构而其他地区国家则寻求避免不顺从的代价;而另外一些国家则可能选择抵抗,它们的反霸权行为将阻碍正式或非正式地区机构的发展.地区国家之间的经济互补也有助于促进合作,而缺少这种互补则可能减少追求合作并使之制度化的动力.另外,跨边界资源(如水资源)的共享也会导致合作或者竞争.跨国挑战的出现(如恐怖主义、毒品交易、移民、环境恶化等),也会使国家在无力单独解决这些问题的时候选择加强合作关系;另一方面,这样的挑战也将激起其他一些国家的敌对反应.在跨国层面上,共同的文化和价值也将促进合作.没有共同的文化或更有甚者--重要文化差异的存在也是阻碍合作的重要因素.