The Cossacks: A guarantor of peace or a land‐mine in Russia's federalism?

Russia's policy towards the Cossacks may prove detrimental to the development of federalism in Russia. Their rehabilitation is important for the rebirth of Russian culture. Yet, the Cossacks as a social‐military institution, may further harm the relations between ethnic Russians and non‐Russians in the Caucasus, which may revive the dispute over the preservation of the ethnic principle in Russia's federalism.     

Conceptualising Third World politics: The state‐society see‐saw

This article presents and juxtaposes critical genealogies of development studies and postcolonial studies, two bodies of literature on the 'Third World' that ignore each other's missions and writings. I demonstrate that the two fields have some areas of convergence, such as groundings in knowledge of and concern about the West, and other areas of divergence: development studies does not tend to listen to subalterns and postcolonial studies does not tend to concern itself with whether the subaltern is eating. I argue that, of the two fields, postcolonial studies has the greatest potential to be a new and different location of human development thinking if it can overcome a tendency to lock into intellectual rather than practical projects of postcolonialism.     

Reflections on “The Politics of Informality”: What We Know,How We Got There,and Where We Might Head Next

Building on the methodological and empirical contributions of the various authors in this special symposium, this concluding reflection acknowledges the important role that informality plays in urban and national politics in the global South, even as it proposes a range of alternative ways, this critical topic could and should be inserted into contemporary scholarship in comparative politics. It begins with a discussion of two decades of research on urbanization and economic globalization, thus introducing a wider set of disciplinary concerns than merely urban servicing into the study of informality, ranging from the transformation of property rights regimes in the context of ascendant neo-liberalization to the recent emergence of more decentralized political structures for claim-making and governance. The essay then suggests that greater historical and contextual specificity in the study of informality, along with the methodological innovations highlighted in the papers, will further help reveal the range of responses to informality seen across the different case studies. Specifically, it proposes that closer attention to divergent urban and national pathways of democratization, attention to institutional variations within and across democratic regimes, political party dynamics at the local and national level, and the existence of urban violence, among other factors, will help explain how and why bureaucrats and elected officials may choose to deal differently with the existence of informality. The essay concludes by arguing that informality should be considered as both a form of governance and a means of enacting citizenship. It thus asks scholars to question the longstanding conceptual dichotomies that permeate much of the literature on informality, including the stark conceptual divide between the formal and informal, and instead to recognize that complex, interactive, and iterative relationships between citizens and the state in the arena of informality are what drive urban servicing and sociopolitical change.     

The North‐South dialogue revisited: Some personal reflections

This article focuses on the experiences of South Korea and the Philippines and examines the relationship of corruption to political and economic development. It argues that corruption is a manifestation of specific sets of state-society relations, political systems, development trajectories and types of external linkages. Corruption in these contexts should not be seen as pathological phenomena but as deeply integrated into the particular path of political and economic development. The article further identifies the context and scope for reform.     

Conditions of non‐development: The case of Lesotho

A peculiar combination of social and economic factors entailed by the proximity of South Africa creates, for Lesotho, a syndrome of non‐development that may usefully be visualised as a vicious circle in three parts—Poverty, Migration, Ideology—and is so described here. It is the purpose of this paper to demonstrate that the economic facts of village life in Lesotho (and in countries with certain characteristics in common with Lesotho) are perpetuated by their effect on the individual villager. The analysis enters a caveat to the theory of ‘aspiration effect’ [Firth and Yamey, 1963], extends the concept of frustration gap’ [McLoughlin, 1970] and adds a dimension to the cognitive map of migrant ideology [Philpott 1968].     

The predictability of international terrorism: A time‐series analysis

Abstract

The study examines the predictability of international terrorism in terms of the existence of trends, seasonality, and periodicity of terrorist events. The data base used was the RAND Corporation's Chronology of International Terrorism. It contains the attributes of every case of international terrorism from 1968 to 1986 (n = 5,589). The authors applied Box‐Jenkins models for a time‐series analysis of the occurrence of terrorist events as well as their victimization rates. The analysis revealed that occurrence of terrorist events is far from being random: There is a clear trend and an almost constant periodicity of one month that can be best described by a first‐order moving average model. The fit of this model was tested both by statistical diagnostics and the accuracy of predictions based on this model compared to actual occurrence. However, the series of victimization rates did not reveal any predictability aside from the overall trend of an increasing level of victimization. The findings of the study are discussed by two approaches: the contagiousness of terrorism and the concept of media‐oriented terrorism. These two concepts, separately or combined, may explain some of the patterns revealed in the occurrence of terrorist events. However, they both highlight the part played by the mass media, either as a target for publicity‐seeking terrorists or as an influential factor in the process of contagion.     

Local Fiscal Stress in Sub‐Saharan Africa: The Kenyan Example

Abstract

This article identifies the fiscal weaknesses of local government in Africa, with concentration of the fiscal stress that is endemic to their condition. It then examines Kenya, as a case study in sub‐Saharan Africa. It continues to focus down on three Kenyan cities—Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu, and identifies their six major revenue sources: land based revenues, regulatory revenues, income‐based taxes, service revenues, user charges, and government grants. Although some of the data is problematic, it is possible to determine several reasons for local fiscal stress. These reasons include limited access to stable financial resources, unstable national economic performance, centralized governmental control, mixed results of decentralization, and institutional and managerial weaknesses, including corruption in the collection and use of resources. Four recommendations are advanced to help these local governments: the development of local credit systems, the use of non‐governmental organizations, the clarification of the use of foreign aid, and the development of a greater capacity for governance. This articles main theoretical contribution is the development of an analytic framework for examining the reasons for fiscal stress in sub‐Saharan Africa. By examining revenue and expenditure patterns of the three localities, the article develops a data set that highlights some of the reasons for local government financial problems—the governments do not know how much revenue can be collected from a particular revenue source, they do not have records of existing sources of revenue, and they only collect about 40–60% of their estimated collections.