Gone with the Storm: Rainfall Shocks and Household Wellbeing in Guatemala

This paper identifies the negative consequences of the strongest tropical storm ever to strike Guatemala on household welfare. Per capita consumption fell in urban areas, raising poverty substantially. Households cut back on food consumption and basic durables, and attempted to cope by increasing their adult and child labour supply. The mechanisms at play include the intensity of the shock, food prices and the timing of Agatha with respect to local harvest cycles. The results are robust to placebo treatments, migration and measurement error, and partly explain the increase in poverty in the country previously attributed solely to the collateral effects of the global financial crisis.     

Weather Shocks and Urban Livelihood Strategies: The Gender Dimension of Household Vulnerability in the Kumi District Of Uganda

The Teso sub-region of Uganda suffered numerous weather shocks in the past, with devastating food security consequences. Using household fixed effects and propensity score matching methods, we analyse the impact of exposure to drought, flood and severe incidence of pests and diseases on household consumption expenditure per adult equivalent for a random sample of households from Kumi Town Council. We find that weather shocks reduce consumption by 17 per cent and that the consumption decline is significantly larger among female-headed households. We also find a higher likelihood of non-farm employment, borrowing and receiving remittances in order to cope with the shocks.     

Uninsured Health Shocks and Agricultural Productivity among Rural Households: The Mitigating Role of Micro-credit

This article investigates how health shocks affect farm productivity in the presence of microcredit. It is expected that microcredit increases agricultural productivity by enhancing allocative and technical efficiency and by overcoming financial constraints that reduce purchase of inputs. However, microcredit will have competing uses in the event of uninsured health shocks to the household. Using an endogenous switching regression model and after accounting for self-selection, the results reveal that microcredit has a significant mitigating effect on farm productivity losses. Thus, microcredit generates a double dividend among smallholders serving as insurance against health shocks in rural areas and improving agricultural productivity.     

Impact of Shocks on Labour and Schooling Outcomes and the Role of Public Work Programmes in Rural India

The effectiveness of the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) on rural labour market dynamics in India has been widely debated in the literature. However, the impact of the NREGS on non-agricultural labour market and children schooling outcomes in reference to exogenous rainfall shock is unclear from the existing literature. This paper exploits the Indian National Sample Survey and rainfall measures from the precipitation archive of the University of Delaware to investigate the role of the NREGS in the labour market and schooling outcomes of children during shocks. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, we focus on disaggregated shock specification and find a shock-cushioning pattern for the NREGS during negative shocks. However, there is an excess demand for labour during positive shock periods resulting from exposure to the NREGS. The implication is that the excess informal labour market opportunity translates to a reduction in school engagement for children. These findings summarily distinguish the role of the NREGS during positive and negative shocks respectively.     

The Impact of Shocks on Gender-differentiated Asset Dynamics in Bangladesh

This study investigates changes in assets owned by the household head, his spouse, or jointly in response to shocks in rural agricultural households in Bangladesh with household survey panel data. Looking at changes within households over time, we find that weather shocks adversely affect the asset holdings of household heads relatively strongly, while predicted negative shocks more strongly lead to assets of both spouses being drawn down. The results, furthermore, suggest that jointly owned assets are not easily sold in response to shocks, and that women’s asset holdings and coping strategies are shaped by their lower involvement in agriculture.     

Measuring Success in Coping with Terrorism: The Israeli Case

This article examines the degree of efficacy of Israel's antiterror policies and ability to cope with terrorism using seven parameters that fall into seven parameters: reduction in civilian casualties among Israelis and Palestinians, Israel's ability to cope economically, Israeli social cohesion, the status of international and domestic support for the Israeli government and the extent of weakening of international and domestic support for the Palestinian leadership. The article concludes that based on most of these parameters, Israel has been successful in coping with terrorism, although greater security must be attained through a change in Palestinian policies.     

The Role of Management Consultation,Support, and Coping on Nurses' Health During the Stress of Restructuring

Abstract

This study examined the impact of hospital restructuring moves on a sample of Australian nurses' health. The role of organizational support, assessed via levels of consultation with staff, social support, and nurses coping were examined as further contributors or mediators of the relationship between the impact of restructuring and nurses' health. Data from 201 hospital nurses indicated that the factors in the model explained 41% of the variance in nurses' health. “Top–down” communication style by management contributed negatively to nurses' health and increased their perceptions of the impact of restructuring. Support from peers, supervisors, and family together with seeing the demands of impact of restructuring as a challenge, contributed positively to nurses' health and reduced the level of avoidance strategies used. The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Coping with shocks in rural Ethiopia

Abstract

Using survey data and event history interviews undertaken in Ethiopia, we investigate which shocks trigger which coping responses and why. Relatively covariate natural and economic shocks trigger reductions in savings and in food consumption, while relatively idiosyncratic health shocks prompt reductions in savings and a reliance on borrowing. Surprisingly, across all shocks, households do not rely on gifts from family and friends, highlighting the need for formal protection systems. We argue that the insensitivity of food consumption to health shocks does not imply insurability but indicates that it is not a viable response to such a shock.     

Farm Expansion in Lithuania after Accession to the EU: The Role of CAP Payments in Alleviating Potential Credit Constraints

The impact of the introduction of EU Single Area Payments (SAPs) on farm expansion strategy in Lithuania is investigated, utilising farm accounting and survey data. The introduction of the SAP has a positive influence on farmers' intentions to expand their area compared to a baseline scenario of the hypothetical continuation of pre-accession policy. The switch in policy has a more pronounced effect on farms that were previously credit constrained. While the SAP has been presented as a support that is decoupled from production, its introduction may have ex post coupled effects, through an income multiplier effect on credit constrained farmers.     

Economic Factors for Piracy: The Effect of Commodity Price Shocks

This study treats piracy as a civil conflict event where participants are substituting from legal work to illegal activity in response to lower commodity prices (opportunity cost effect). The analysis exploits exogenous variation in nine different commodity prices across seventeen countries around the globe. Results show that as commodity prices decrease maritime piracy attacks increase, which is consistent with results found in civil conflict literature. In the context of actual commodity shocks these piracy attacks represent increases ranging from .452 to 2.59 more attacks per year in the ordinary least squares and .495 to 20.71 attacks per year in the Poisson specification.     

Identifying and Coping with Fiscal Emergencies in Ohio Local Governments

Abstract

This study examines the reasons fiscal emergencies occur in Ohio local governments and the strategies that local governments use to recover. In Ohio, fiscal emergencies have regularly occurred predominantly at the local level. This study aims to reveal the internal process that both bring on and ameliorates fiscal emergencies. Previous studies failed to differentiate between fiscal stress and fiscal emergencies and did not include the role of the Ohio Fiscal Emergency Law in assisting local governments in restoring long term fiscal health. This study finds fiscal emergencies in Ohio were caused by: (1) the increased costs associated with unfunded state-mandated programs and, (2) major economical downturns brought on by local plant closings. Local governments were found to have responded in the short run by strategies such as targeted expenditure cuts and in the long run by increased the use of economic development.     

Coping with Complex Leadership Roles: The Problematic Redefinition of Government-owned Enterprises

Inspired by New Public Management, many countries have changed their central public apparatus from an integrated to a more segregated structural model. A central element in this process is structural devolution and the establishment of new or reorganized state-owned companies with increased business autonomy and new formal control systems. This paper focuses on how this development, as exemplified by the case of Norway, is affecting the role of central executive political and administrative leaders. The study, based on elite interviews, shows that corporatization has made the role of central leaders more complex and ambiguous and undermined traditional political control. We interpret this development from a transformative perspective, underlining how structural devolution is filtered through the dynamic context of environmental pressure and internal structural and cultural factors; in addition, experiences from New Zealand are used to contrast the Norwegian case.     

The Credit Constraints of Market-Oriented Farmers in Chile

Using data from two surveys conducted in 2006 and 2008 with 177 farmers, this article determines whether market-oriented farmers in central Chile are credit constrained, and it identifies the main factors that influence formal credit provision. In so doing, this study explicitly tests whether social capital variables play a role in determining credit constraints. That is, the authors explore the determinants of classifications into four categories of credit provision and rationing, using a panel multinomial logit model. The results suggest that most market-oriented farmers are unconstrained. Empirical evidence supports the importance of relationship variables for improving access to financial capital.     

Shocks and their consequences across and within households in Rural Zimbabwe

Increasing attention is now being paid to poverty dynamics in developing countries. This work links the extent to which households smooth consumption or smooth assets given income shocks, the empirical evidence on the churning of households in and out of poverty, and the possibility that temporary shocks can have permanent consequences. Using longitudinal data from rural Zimbabwe, this paper extends the discussion of these issues by disaggregating the impact of shocks by levels of asset holdings, by disaggregating the impact of shocks on individual level welfare and by assessing the extent to which such shocks have permanent consequences. By doing so, it assesses the validity of distinguishing between asset and consumption smoothing and provides insights into whether poverty dynamics assessed at the household level provide an adequate picture of dynamics at the individual level.     

在应对危机中不断拓展的中国外交

2009年是新中国外交的第60个春秋,今天的国际、国内形势以及中国外交与60年前早已不能同日而语,中国外交的目标、对外关系的布局、与不同国家的关系、外交的形式和内涵等都显示了新的时代特点。在承前启后的2009年,中国外交以建国60周年为契机,以应对国际金融危机为主线,积极参与应对全球性问题的国际多边合作,在推动全球经济复苏、应对气候变化,展示了中国负责任的大国形象。在加强全方位外交,充实和拓展总体外交方面取得了瞩目的成就。     

The Impact of International Remittances on Child Outcomes and Household Expenditures in Nepal

Nepal has one of the highest ratios of international remittances to gross domestic product in the world. We examine whether the massive inflow of international remittances affects child schooling, child labour and household expenses. Controlling extensively for a host of observed characteristics of households and migrants, and using an instrumental variable approach, this research finds no effect of international remittances on child education or child labour in Nepal. However, it does find a significant increase in non-food expenditures, including education spending, due to international remittances. Despite increased expenditure on child education, educational outcomes are not improving because of international remittances.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Household Welfare in a Developing Country with Imperfect Labour Markets

Abstract

I develop an empirical methodology to assess the distributional impact of trade-induced price shocks when labour markets are imperfect. The proposed methodology relates exogenous variations in prices to changes in household welfare using a separable agricultural household model that flexibly allows the data to determine the degree of labour market imperfections. Applying this approach to Vietnam, I investigate the impact of agriculture trade liberalisation between 1993 and 1998 on overall household welfare, measured using per capita household expenditure. I find that accounting for labour market imperfections results in welfare gains that are nearly four times larger than those found when assuming complete labour markets.     

The Impact of Household Structure on Female Autonomy in Developing Countries

Abstract

Joint household structures in which several generations co-reside in a single house are common across developing countries. Such households may confer benefits on all the family members through household public goods with the patriarch exercising greater control over resources. Therefore, the household structure may affect the bargaining power of its members. This paper estimates the effect of joint versus nuclear household structure in India on the autonomy of women and their labour force participation and the heterogeneity in the effects by income, caste, and region. I use an instrumental variable approach and find that women living in nuclear households have greater decision-making power.     

The Myth of Female Credit Discrimination in African Manufacturing

Abstract

We examine credit constraint differentials between male and female manufacturing entrepreneurs using firm data from 16 sub-Saharan Africa countries. Small enterprises owned by female entrepreneurs are less likely to be credit constrained compared to their male counterparts, while this is reversed for medium-sized enterprises. A generalised Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition shows that the gap is predominantly a pure gender effect. We argue that this finding is mainly due to female favouritism in loans to micro and small firms because the gap is reversed for medium-sized enterprises and because we find no sign of superior female entrepreneurial performance in observable indicators.     

Coping with financial crises: explaining variety in regional arrangements

Financial regional arrangements vary across countries and change over time. Until recently, most economists and political scientists took the European model of monetary integration as the yardstick to which all other regional financial arrangements had to measure up in this article. It is argued that the Euro crisis provides an opportunity for scholars to adopt a different perspective that does not interpret the variety of financial arrangements merely as economic deficiencies caused by the incapacity or unwillingness of regions to follow the European model. Instead, the comparative study of monetary and financial regionalism has to account for the different factors that shape variations. These go from different levels of economic development, over regional political and economic preferences to historical processes which shape the institutional context and the constellation of interests and social forces. Such an approach, which integrates economic and political science approaches, de-centres the Euro model and opens up a new understanding of the global diversity of regional monetary and financial cooperation, and their potential to cope with financial crises.