When Shadow Banking Can Be Productive: Financing Small and Medium Enterprises in China

Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) represent the backbone of China’s economy, yet they face challenges in accessing bank credit. SMEs thus rely on a wide range of alternative sources, including informal finance, online peer-to-peer (P2P) platforms, registered non-banking financial institutions (NBFIs), and underground financiers. This article distinguishes among different types of ‘shadow banking’ to clarify popular misconceptions about the nature of risks associated with informal financial intermediation in China. Given their familiarity with local business conditions and needs, regulated and well-managed NBFIs could provide an enduring foundation for commercialised financial intermediation serving SMEs.     

The Effect of Sibling Size on Children’s Health and Education: Is there a Quantity-Quality Trade-off?

The quantity-quality trade-off is one important motivation for the family planning policies in many developing countries. In this paper, we examine the effect of number of siblings on children’s health and education in China. We find evidence of quantity-quality trade-off in children’s health but not in children’s education. Our study has three contributions. First, we focus not only on children’s education but also on children’s health, which has received rather little attention in the literature. Secondly, we use a new source of exogenous variation in fertility – variations of the strictness of the One-Child policy across localities in China – to construct instrumental variable's (IV's). Finally, we empirically explore the underlying mechanism of the quantity-quality trade-off, and find supporting evidence for the resource dilution hypothesis.     

The Impact of Trade Credit on Customer Switching Behaviour: Evidence from the Tanzanian Rice Market

We use primary survey data to analyse the relationship between trade credit and customer switching in the context of trade transactions between wholesalers and retailers in the Tanzanian rice market. Results reveal a negative relation of trade credit and customer switching, that is, trade credit acts as a switching barrier; retailers are reluctant to move to another supplier if they depend on trade credit as a source of external finance. This interpretation fits with the underdeveloped financial markets in Tanzania, in which access to external finance is poor among rice retailers.     

Watching from the sidelines? The decline of the IMF's crisis management role

This article compares the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s crisis management role during the Asian financial crisis in 1997–98 with the role it has played during the ‘credit crunch’ which emerged in the wake of the subprime crisis in the United States. With prominent calls for the construction of new forms of global financial governance to prevent a recurrence of the subprime crisis in the future, we explore how the designated guardian of the international financial system has responded to the credit crunch in order to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the existing system. Our comparison of the US subprime crisis and the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s indicates that the IMF has lost credibility with its members, and particularly with its principal sponsor, the United States, which has curbed its capacity to develop multilateral solutions to major financial crises.     

Interest rates,saving, investment and growth in mexico 1960–90: Tests of the financial liberalisation hypothesis

The theory of financial liberalisation argues that rising real interest rates induces more saving and investment and therefore acts as a positive stimulus to economic growth. This hypothesis is tested for Mexico over the period 1960–90, making the important distinction between financial saving and total saving. Financial saving is found to be positively related to real interest rates partly through capital flows and partly through domestic asset substitution, but total saving is invariant with respect to real interest rates. Investment is positively related to the supply of credit from the banking system, but the net effect of interest rates on investment is negative. Furthermore, taking McKinnon's ‘virtuous circle’ model of economic growth shows no favourable effects of interest rates on economic growth. It is concluded that any favourable effect of financial liberalisation and higher real interest rates on economic growth must come through raising the productivity of investment.     

UK Government Policy,Credit Unions,and Payday Loans

This article outlines how successive UK governments’ policies first created a three-tier system of credit unions and then posited credit unions as alternatives to payday lenders. The three-tier framework is used for an analysis of loans offered on credit union websites. The findings indicate that while the first two tiers of credit unions now offer loans to people who have not saved with them previously, they do so in ways consistent with credit unions’ original character, rather than in ways that replicate commercial payday loans. The other tier of credit unions appears unable to offer such loans.     

Growth,governance and corruption in Bangladesh: a re-assessment

This paper revisits Bangladesh’s ‘double paradox’ – sustained macroeconomic growth despite the poor state of governance and a high level of corruption – by critically reviewing trends in governance and corruption indicators during 1990–2017 vis-à-vis other South Asian countries. In addition, we draw upon data from a purposefully designed survey of manufacturing firms to assess the state of economic governance in the export-oriented ready-made garments (RMG) sector, the country’s main source of foreign exchange and driver of economic growth. Consistent with the country’s poor ranking in a host of indicators of investment climate and corruption perception, in-depth interviews of RMG factory owners confirm the high cost of doing business in various forms. We also find no evidence of growth-mediated improvements in indicators of governance. On the contrary, our review of print media reports suggests a growing governance deficit in the country’s financial sector. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for the country’s future growth as well as performance of the RMG sector.     

The Cost of Empowerment: Multiple Sources of Women’s Debt in Rural India

Abstract

Poor women borrow from multiple sources. This study examines whether the source of debt matters for women’s role in household financial decisions. Drawing on a household survey from rural Tamil Nadu, we categorise women’s loans along the lines of accessibility and formality into ‘planned loans’ and ‘instant loans’. We find that ‘instant loans’ support women’s bargaining power in various types of household financial decisions, whereas ‘planned loans’ have no impact. This surprising result is better understood when the nature of ‘instant loans’ is examined – these are frequently usurious, involve coercive enforcement methods and are considered socially debasing. Hence women who use them perform a convenient role for their households and in return gain some negotiating power.     

Informal borrowing sources and uses: insights from the North West Region,Cameroon

Abstract

This article seeks to analyse the informal borrowing sources of the poor as well as the purposes for borrowing. The obsession on characterising the poor as financially excluded fails to grasp their active financial lives. This article emphasises how relations of credit/debt are rooted in complex social and cultural forces. It is precisely because of the social embeddedness of credit that family finance, though interest-free, is not a first resort. Similarly, credit in kind from shopkeepers, though critical to consumption smoothing, is detested by some people. Also, it is argued that the involvement of the traditional leader in repayment enforcement in informal financial groups challenges the economistic narrative that attempts to separate credit from cultural norms.     

台湾地区金融业促进制造业转型升级的经验

在中国经济新常态背景下,通过金融业改革促进产业转型是当今学术界研究的热门话题。本文以我国台湾地区为样本,以金融结构和产业结构的视角,回顾1960-1980年间的金融抑制时期、1980-2000年间的金融自由化时期、2000年后金融改革和国际化时期,在面临国际和岛内社会经济环境不断变化的情况下,台湾当局通过金融业促进制造业转型升级方面做的积极探索。并探讨了在台湾制造业升级过程中金融发展的作用。这些经验对中国大陆通过金融业促进制造业转型升级具有启示意义,值得借鉴。     

Risk,Credit Constraints and Financial Efficiency in Peruvian Agriculture

Based on a panel data set, we use a two-stage analysis to evaluate the effects of access to formal credit on financial efficiency of farms in northern Peru. The first stage uses non-parametric data envelope analysis to estimate farm-specific measures of financial efficiency; 28 per cent of farmers are financially inefficient and credit constraints reduce profits of these farmers by an average of between 17 and 27 per cent. The second stage uses Tobit regression to evaluate the determinants of financial inefficiency; the results point to uninsured risk as a key determinant of financial inefficiency and suggest that policies to strengthen agricultural insurance markets would likely pay large dividends in rural Peru.     

Social Networks and Factor Markets: Panel Data Evidence from Ethiopia

We investigate the role of an indigenous social network in Ethiopia, the iddir, in facilitating factor market transactions among smallholder farmers. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data and employ fixed effects estimation approaches to identify the effect of iddir membership on factor market transactions among farmers. We find that joining an iddir network improves households’ access to land, labour and credit transactions. Our findings also hint that iddir networks may crowd-out borrowing from local moneylenders (locally referred as ‘Arata Abedari’), a relatively expensive credit source. These results suggest that non-market institutions can play crucial roles in facilitating market transactions.     

Central banks’ communication as reputation management: How the Fed talks under uncertainty

This article advances a reputation‐based account to explain the relative salience that different issues assume in central banks’ communication. Based on an innovative dataset consisting of a corpus of speeches by the members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System of the United States (also known as the Fed) delivered from 2006 to 2016, the analysis shows that the most salient issues in the Fed's communication are shaped by reputational concerns about policy reversals. Specifically, when these concerns are higher, the Fed is more likely to focus on issues related to areas where its reputation is weak or not yet established—that is, issues related to credit easing and systemic financial regulation. In contrast, issues related to activities where the Fed's reputation is established are likely to become less salient—that is, issues related to economic activity and inflation. A similar pattern of issue attention is observed when the Fed addresses political audiences compared to other audiences.     

Chinese views of global economic governance

China’s rise and America’s global retreat have made China’s role in global governance more important than ever before. By analysing Chinese (mainly academic) literature, this article studies contemporary Chinese views of global economic governance. It finds that the 2008 financial crisis is a notable point of the Chinese discourse. In addition, dialogue platforms – the G20 in particular – rather than key institutions of global economic governance such as International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and Word Trade Organization (WTO) win overwhelming attention in the Chinese discourse. Chinese views of global economic governance also highly value the role of the state, while paying less attention to Non Governmental Organisations (NGO) and civil society. Overall, this article highlights a diverse, shifting and sometimes contradictory Chinese discourse on global economic governance, which helps to develop a more accurate understanding of China’s ambition in global economic governance.     

Financial transitions in the PRC: banking on the state?

The reappearance of substantial debt in China after 2008 has refocused attention on the sustainability of the existing financial ‘model’. It’s not just that ‘traditional’ forms of bank-centred debt have re-emerged, but that the informal ‘shadow banking’ sector also seems increasingly fragile, generating debts that do not seem easy to repay. Explanations for the current situation focus on the way in which China responded to the global financial crisis, and on the incentives that exist to go outside the formal and more regulated banking system into often riskier activities. But there are more fundamental structural issues. The current financial system contains within it some of the dna of its predecessor, while the spatial distribution of power and authority is inextricably linked to the way the financial system functions. While it might be possible to tinker with some elements of current financial problems, the relationship between local government financing, land, the banking system and key economic sectors makes it difficult to resolve more structural issues without taking a holistic approach; one that would have fundamental consequences for the nature of the Chinese state, and the distribution of power within it.     

China’s foreign aid system: structure,agencies, and identities

China’s rise as a (re)emerging donor has attracted attention over the last decade, with a focus on Chinese development assistance as a challenge to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) aid norms. Knowledge of China’s domestic aid structure is needed to understand Chinese aid abroad. This paper addresses gaps in the literature and challenges the accepted nostrum that China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) dominates China’s aid programme. Building on the authors’ experience as Chinese aid practitioners and scholars over more than a decade and drawing on over 300 interviews, the paper explores China’s aid decision-making processes by examining the main agencies, identities and informal interactions. We argue that the Chinese aid system is characterised by fierce and ongoing competition for influence among actors, especially MOFCOM, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and the Ministry of Finance (MoF), as well as the companies responsible for implementing Chinese aid projects.     

Reframing development and accountability: the influence of sovereign credit ratings on policy making in developing countries

At a time of increased financial volatility, understanding ‘development’ requires that we trace spheres of accountability in order to detect the consequences of shifts in power structures from the public to the private sectors, especially. By focusing on the business of sovereign credit ratings, I argue that ratings have been particularly influential in this context not only because of their function as a benchmark for private investment, but because they now also enter into the calculations of policy makers in developing countries who are increasingly compelled to implement policies that reduce their countries' sovereign risk at possibly high costs for sustained economic growth. I explain that governments' eagerness to signal their potential as reliable capital recipients allows for credit ratings to become a powerful site of governance. This outcome is not justified by the quality of rating agencies' output, but by the subjective power of the notion of risk in a crisis prone environment that shifts accountability—through this disproportional influence of credit rating agencies—from the public to the private realm. The Argentine crisis of 2001 is presented here as a case study that illustrates these dynamics.     

中国共产党百年对外交往与外交思想笔谈

中国共产党在对外交往领域积累了丰富的思想和实践资源,这是深化中国特色政党外交理论研究,丰富外交学理论,构建中国特色大国外交理论的重要学理源泉。中国共产党的世界观和外交价值观一以贯之,外交思想和原则具有高度稳定性、连续性和确定性。党的外交思想坚持人民性、独立性和时代性。独立自主是中国共产党外交思想体系的基石。党的十八大以来,中国积极开展涉港国际斗争,坚决反对与遏制任何国家和外部势力干涉香港事务和中国内政。中国共产党的国际安全理论建设具有长期的思想准备、丰富的实践经验和先进的理论指导,坚持系统思维,构建大安全格局。共同、综合、合作、可持续的新安全观是中国特色国际秩序观的具体体现。     

Credit Availability and Internal Migration: Evidence from Thailand

This study investigates the relationship between borrowing and internal migration. Exploiting the micro-finance scheme Village Fund in Thailand, it investigates the short- and medium-term effects of borrowing since the policy’s introduction. Employing an instrumental variables approach, borrowing is instrumented using the inverse number of households per village at the beginning of the policy to capture potential credit availability. The findings suggest that internal migration in Thailand is not credit constrained and its interaction with credit is time-related. Borrowing reduces internal migration in the medium-term, but is found not to affect migration when the policy is first introduced.     

Have a Son,Gain a Voice: Son Preference and Female Participation in Household Decision Making

This study analyses the effects of observed preference for boys on Pakistani women’s participation in household decision-making. We find a significant association between female participation in various household decisions and their preference for boys. Bearing at least one son is associated with 5 per cent, 7 per cent, and 5 per cent higher say in decisions involving healthcare, social, and consumption matters, respectively. Women’s role in financial affairs, however, does not change significantly. Female participation in decision-making grows with the number of sons but only up to third parity. The improvement in female participation remains limited and decision- or context-specific.