美国贸易代表办公室与美国国际贸易政策

美国政治制度的变迁特别是府会关系的变化在很大程度上影响着美国国际贸易政策的制定.在一个分立的权力体系下,作为美国国际贸易政策主要制定者和执行者的美国贸易代表办公室,从其最初创立到不断扩权、角色转化的过程就是总统和国会不断争夺国际贸易政策权的过程.国会不断挑战以行政为主导的"1934年体制",试图建立新的府会共管的国际贸易制度.府会关系的变化不仅直接决定了美国贸易代表办公室的权限和地位,也影响了其在国际贸易谈判中的谈判行为.     

结构与单元--美国对华决策的系统分析

本文以系统分析的方法考察了美国对华决策系统的结构和单元,文章指出美国对华决策系统是一种T字形结构,其单元包括总统、国会、思想库和利益集团,结构决定了美国对华政策的基本走向,而单元之间的互动使美国对华政策出现了起伏.     

“单一行政官”理论与美国总统权力的扩张

"单一行政官"理论是在对美国宪法有关总统权力条款的解读过程中产生的理论,其核心含义是,任何对总统掌控行政部门进行限制的企图都被视为违宪。"单一行政官"的概念形成于200多年前的制宪会议。后来,"单一行政官"理论不断地发展演变,为美国总统不断扩展其行政权力提供了理论依据。"单一行政官"理论通过证明总统扩张权力的正当性,对美国三权分立的权力制衡机制构成了威胁。要厘清总统权力的边界,必须参照宪法的文本和结构,同时也要考虑到现代社会对行政部门提出的新要求。     

美国印第安人保留地制度现状研究

作为一种制度安排,美国印第安人保留地制度主要不是通过政策宣示的形式建立起来的,而是通过美国国会的立法、美国各级法院对国会有关法律法令的解释和诉讼裁决形成的。因此,考察美国印第安人法就构成了研究印第安人保留地制度的主要途径。本文对美国印第安人法中关于美国联邦政府与印第安人部落之间的权力划分,印第安人保留地所拥有的刑事及民事司法权、印第安事务署在印第安人保留地制度中的独特地位等问题进行了考察,得出结论认为,美国赋予印第安人的有限自决在本质上与联邦政府对印第安人的所谓"托管权"存有内在矛盾,这一矛盾决定了美国印第安人保留地制度不足以解决困扰美国政府长达200多年的"印第安人问题",也决定了印第安人时至今日仍然无法有效地行使自己的自决权。如果美国政府无法在印第安人的自决权与联邦政府的"托管权"之间寻得一个恰当的平衡,这一问题仍有可能继续困扰美国政府。     

克林顿总统弹劾案中的权力和权利冲突

克林顿弹劾案反映了美国政治、国家和社会体制中多方面的权力和权利冲突.弹劾是罢免总统的唯一手段,但宪法关于弹劾的条款含义不明."独立检查官法"表现出巨大的政治破坏性,法律至上与个人权利价值在实践中难以平衡,党派倾轧渗入司法过程,大众观念与精英政治出现巨大的差距.此案例不仅暴露出美国国家制度中的许多问题,也引发对国家政治和社会观念更广泛的思考.     

美国对华决策政治系统及要求

自 2 0世纪 70年代以来特别是冷战结束以后 ,美国外交决策系统由原来的相对集中和由总统占垄断地位向一个开放和多元的系统转变。本文使用政治的分析方法考察了美国对华决策系统的结构以及各个要求的作用和影响 ,并提出通过影响国会、利益集团和媒体的要求进而影响美国对华政策的观点。     

战后初期美国在对外政策中的两党合作

本文的研究对象是第二次世界大战结束后初期美国在对外政策上两党合作的实践。两党合作的对外政策指的是在对外政策领域内 ,以总统为代表的行政部门同另一党的某些国会领袖以协商等形式进行的政策制订过程 ,其目的是为了最高的“国家利益”而将对党派私利的考虑排除在外 ,并使政策最终获得总统和国会两党多数的支持。第二次世界大战后 ,美国在对外政策上的两党合作始于创立联合国 ,并在此后确保了援助希腊、土耳其 ,马歇尔计划 ,以及建立北大西洋公约组织等一系列重大政策的成功。长期来看 ,两党合作的深层影响则是加强了冷战共识和行政部门权力的扩张 ,并在本质上与美国分权制衡的宪政原则相抵触。两党合作的外交政策在短时间内看是必要的和有益的 ,但也蕴藏着危险。     

美国涉华经济利益集团与中美贸易摩擦

利益集团政治是美国政治的本质,美国的贸易政策和贸易政治必然引发美国经济利益集团的高度关注。在美国与中国发生大规模贸易摩擦期间,美国各类涉华经济利益集团的立场虽然不同,但均通过各种方式对白宫和美国国会施加影响,其游说的规模和力度可以与20世纪90年代围绕美国政府给予中国永久正常贸易关系的游说相提并论。反对加征关税的利益集团未能阻止特朗普政府的关税政策,这与美国总统和国会的权力分配、利益集团对中国的集体抱怨、美国对华战略的重大调整等因素有关。在中美经贸磋商的过程中,特朗普政府极力压制美国商界的诉求,但不得不安抚和照顾利益受损的农业集团。美国跨国资本的逐利性、中国巨大市场的吸引力、中国深化改革和扩大开放的新举措等,将不断扩大美国国内支持和中国达成经贸协议的"赢集"。同时,中美竞争关系的加剧将对美国涉华经济利益集团产生更大的影响,而后者也将从不同的方向持续塑造美国的对华政策。     

危机决策中的美国府会互动模式

自冷战爆发以来,国际安全危机频频发生.在应对危机的决策过程中,美国府会之间分权共治的常规决策模式被打破.由于危机决策的特殊性、加之总统享有对情报的掌控权,以及对武装力量的指挥权,使得总统成为危机决策中近乎独断的"领导者",而国会则基于维护国家安全利益等方面的考虑,扮演了忠实的"服从者"的角色,从而导致府会之间形成了一种独特的"领导一服从"互动模式.     

美国最高法院完成全面右转

美国最高法院1973年在“罗诉韦德”案中裁定妇女堕胎权受美国宪法保护，2022年在“多布斯”案中又宣布美国宪法根本没有规定妇女享有堕胎权。同一法院在两案中做出截然不同的判决，原因不是美国宪法相关条款被修订，而是最高法院大法官构成发生了变化。20世纪80年代以来，保守派人士逐渐替代了数位自由派大法官，至2020年则完全掌控了最高法院。这一变化直接导致了最高法院对诸多宪法条款做出了与前不同的解释，涉及领域包括竞选开支、公民投票权、宗教信仰和政教分离、枪支管制、政府监管以及堕胎权等，可以说是完成了一场相当全面的反自由主义的司法革命。根据美国宪法，非民选的司法部门应在一个总的民主框架的制衡下行使自己的权力，近些年来这种制衡力度有明显削弱趋势，出现了所谓“少数票法官”。一方面法院权力上升，另一方面对法院的制衡下降，这种情况已经而且将继续挑战美国现行的宪政制度。     

American policy toward Beijing, 1989–1990: The role of president Bush and the White House staff

The Tiananmen massacre of June 1989 created a major crisis in U.S. policy toward China. President Bush and his aides on the National Security Council staff took the lead in formulating the U.S. response to the crisis. The president took charge personally in dealing with various issues during the next two years. He strove hard to maintain a balanced policy that would allow for continued U.S. involvement with the people and leaders of China. In the crisis atmosphere of 1989–1990, the president appeared to judge that it was important to narrow sharply the circle of officials who would manage U.S. policy toward China. In part, this was because the president was attempting to strike a difficult balance in U.S. policy. On the one hand, he was attempting to elicit positive gestures from Beijing's beleaguered leaders in the wake of Tiananmen. On the other hand, he was attempting to avoid what he judged were overly punitive and counterproductive U.S. measures against China, which were being pressed on the administration by U.S. leaders in the Congress, media and elsewhere. The president and his close advisors took steps to ensure that State Department and other U.S. officials avoided comment on the most sensitive policy issue of 1990—the extension of most-favored-nation tariff treatment to China. By the end of 1990, however, the president's policy efforts had not stilled congressional debate or restored a consensus in U.S. China policy. President Bush still labored under the misperception in many quarters that he was less interested than others in human rights in China, was overly attentive to the interests of Chinese leaders, and stressed excessively China's alleged strategic importance for the United States. In fact, the Chinese government's relatively constructive role in world affairs, especially over such vital issues as the 1990–1991 Persian Gulf crisis, appeared to do more to win U.S. support for the president's carefully balanced approach to China than the efforts by administrative leaders to explain the policy.     

“遏制战略之父”乔治·凯南的中国观

乔治·凯南是美国冷战初期"遏制战略"的缔造者和苏联问题专家,曾对美国外交决策产生重要影响,特别是在他担任国务院政策规划室主任期间。但是,由于对中国社会和历史缺乏全面而深入的了解,凯南眼中的中国虽然历史悠久、文化灿烂,却是一个"自大排外""自私冷酷"又"不讲原则"的古老民族。这种负面的中国印象直接影响了乔治·凯南对中美苏三国关系的定位以及冷战时期美国外交政策。乔治·凯南的文化教育背景、好友小约翰·戴维斯的影响及其信奉的现实主义政治理论是影响他的中国观的主要因素。     

Outsiders and Executive‐Legislative Conflict in Latin America

One of the most significant developments in Latin American democracies since the beginning of the Third Wave of democratization is the rise to power of political outsiders. However, the study of the political consequences of this phenomenon has been neglected. This article begins to fill that gap by examining whether the rise of outsiders in the region increases the level of executive‐legislative confrontation. Using an original database of political outsiders in Latin America, it reports a series of logistic regressions showing that the risk of executive‐legislative conflict significantly increases when the president is an outsider. The likelihood of institutional paralysis increases when an independent gets elected, due to the legislative body's lack of support for the president and the outsider's lack of political skills. The risk of an executive's attempted dissolution of Congress is also much higher when the president is an outsider.     

The crisis in U.S.-China policy, 1991: The role of congress

The history of U.S. government decisionmaking on China policy since the June 1989 Tiananmen incident shows several episodes of dramatic confrontation between President Bush and his supporters in the administration and the Congress, and large numbers of congressional members of both parties critical of the administration’s China policy. Up to the present, 1991 clearly marked the highwater mark in the ongoing U.S. policy debate. In general terms, the debate went through three distinct stages in 1991, with the crisis coming during critical votes on conditional MFN legislation in July. At year’s end, all sides in the debate anticipated continued strong congressional criticism of Chinese practices and Bush administration policy, but critics seemed unable to make substantial inroads among those senators who supported the Bush administration’s stance, assuring continued MFN trade treatment for China.     

The politics of U.S. most-favored-nation treatment to China: The cases of 1979 and 1990

This article seeks to analyze U.S. interests in granting China the most-favored-nation status in 1979 and the present situation regarding the extension of such status. It argues that while the change and continuity in U.S.-China policy interests and objectives may still guide U.S. decision makers, what happened in Beijing last spring has given rise to a formidable congressional coalition among liberals, conservatives, and protectionists in opposing MFN treatment to China. The final outcome will depend largely on the degree of presidential readiness to defend his China policy and on whether the president is able to prevent the congressional overriding of the presidential veto.     

Chinese Economic Statecraft and U.S. Hegemony in Latin America: An Empirical Analysis, 2003–2014

If one interprets China's sizable rise in Latin America as an unprecedented phenomenon, it follows that the concurrent story of declining U.S. influence in the region is an event hastily acknowledged at best and ignored at worst. In this article, we ask whether Chinese economic statecraft in Latin America is related to the declining U.S. hegemonic influence in the region and explore how. To do so we analyze foreign direct investments, bank loans, and international trade from 2003 to 2014, when China became a major player in the region. We use data from 21 Latin American countries, and find that an inversely proportional relationship exists between the investments made by Chinese state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), bank loans, manufacturing exports, and the U.S. hegemonic influence exerted in the region. In other words, Beijing has filled the void left by a diminished U.S. presence in the latter's own backyard.     

China’s Oil Venture in Africa

Oil has long been viewed as a strategic resource for nations. China is now the world’s second largest oil-consuming country after the U.S.. Its global efforts to secure oil imports to meet increasing domestic demand have profound implications for international relations in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s rising oil demand and its external quest for oil have thus generated much attention. As China’s overseas oil quest intensifies, will China clash with the U.S. and other western countries’ interests in Africa, and how dose it look at this rivalry? Will China disrupt the U.S. and its allies’ foreign policy and the world order? This article tries to provide an overview of China’s initiatives in developing oil in Africa. It examines factors for Chinese oil companies going to Africa and China’s oil strategy there. Finally, it argues that even though China’s practices of energy diplomacy in Africa seem to undermine U.S. goals of isolating or punishing “rogue states”, contrary to those pessimistic views, China has largely accommodated the U.S. and is willing to forge joint efforts with the U.S. in energy exploration in Africa.     

大萧条时期美国贸易政策与中美贸易

20世纪30年代世界经济大萧条时期,开始于美国的贸易保护主义政策,极大地损害了国际贸易的发展,中国的对外贸易尤其是中美贸易也受到了严重冲击。1929～1932年,尽管中国货币被动贬值,但其对出口的积极效应远远小于美国进口税提高及进口需求下降的效应。1933年以后美国关税壁垒降低,美国货币贬值及白银购买导致中国货币相对升值,但有限的贸易自由化及国民收入的增加,引致进口需求扩大,并由此带动了中国对美出口贸易的增长。     

美国思想库对美韩同盟的研究——以CSIS、CNAS、CATO为中心

美国思想库普遍认为,在美国实力下降的大趋势下,获得韩国的支持是维系美国霸权的必然之举。韩美同盟有助于遏制朝鲜,更有利于围堵中国,也有益于解决非传统安全问题。总之,美国必须因应国际形势的变化来改造韩美同盟,劝服韩国为己所用。当然,也有个别思想库学者认为韩美同盟是个两败俱伤的同盟,理应放弃。