Terrorism and the media: Problems,solutions, and counterproblems

This article is divided into two main parts. The first part frames the problem of “terrorism and the media” in terms of a complex interaction involving three kinds of relationships. The first is the relationship between terrorists and governments; the second is the relationship between terrorists and the media; and the third is the relationship between government and the media. The second part examines the specific roles of the media in covering terrorism and the impact of such coverage. Four kinds of solutions to the problems deriving from this impact are examined in turn: the use of media guidelines, the use of legislation and legal sanctions, media‐government cooperation, and training and education. Finally, the practicality of these solutions is examined by highlighting the kinds of problems or “counterproblems” that are inherent in each solution.     

越南与印度关系:制衡外交的一个范例

越南和印度长期以来一直保持着亲密、友好的关系,并将这种良好的双边关系视为传统友好关系。越南革新开放以来,越印关系又有新的发展,最终演进到战略伙伴关系。根本原因是两国在外交战略的选择上有共同的需求:都希望借重对方的力量来达到制衡大国的目的。笔者认为,越印关系就是一种有实用目的的制衡外交的一个范例。     

中美关系60年的思考与展望

中美关系是新中国最重要的对外关系之一。中美关系60年来的跌宕起伏，给我们许多深刻的启示：利益交汇是中美关系发展的根本动力；从大局出发把握分歧，努力推进中美关系的平稳发展；中美和平共处的新型大国关系是中美关系的必然选择。未来，中美之间的竞争仍不可避免，但不会是两败俱伤的“零和”博弈，在全球化浪潮的推动下，在两国相互依存的大背景下，合作共赢符合两国的根本利益。     

论技术预见与文化产业发展战略

科技创新与文化产业存在着密切的关系,作为科技创新规划基础的技术预见与文化产业发展规划基础的文化产业发展战略之间也存在着密切的关系。本文探讨了我国全面建设小康社会背景下技术预见与文化产业发展战略之间的互动关系,简要介绍国外利用技术预见促进文化产业发展的经验,分析了如何利用技术预见构建我国文化产业发展战略的问题。     

中国与海湾合作委员会国家经济关系探析

与海合会国家的经济关系在中国与中东国家经济关系中占有重要地位。中国经济的快速发展增加了对能源的需求,而海合会国家经济以能源为支柱产业的特点决定了其经济发展需要稳定的能源市场。能源合作成为双方经济合作的核心,并通过双边贸易、投资和工程承包得以体现。能源关系的发展推动了贸易、投资和工程承包合作的发展,使双方经济合作规模不断扩大。保持和发展中国与海合会国家双边经济关系,促进石油美元的顺利回流,在增加从海合会进口石油的同时保持国际收支的基本平衡以及保持稳定的石油进口,有利于促进中国经济的良性运行。中国与海合会国家经济关系发展前景广阔。     

俄美关系的走向及其影响

乌克兰危机以来,由于美国对俄罗斯实施经济制裁和政治军事遏制,俄美关系陷入长期对抗。俄美对抗的根源在于美国不断削弱俄罗斯对其周边地区的影响力和企图改造俄罗斯政治制度。同时,基于军事安全互动的俄美关系基本结构也使两国难以摆脱安全困境。拜登执政后,美国对俄推行"强力遏制+有限合作"政策,普京政府可能以反制与合作两手策略应对,既避免与美国发生军事冲突,也不会卑躬屈膝地与之和解。未来一段时期内,俄美关系仍将延续对抗状态,难以实现正常化。     

广西与东盟贸易互补性和竞争性及其转变的发展趋势研究

一、引言 随着中国-东盟自由贸易区建设进程的不断深入，作为中国与东盟经贸合作纽带的广西壮族自治区（以下简称广西）已成为中国与东盟经贸合作的桥头堡，特别是从2004年10月第一届“中国-东盟博览会”落户广西南宁以来，广西在自由贸易区建设中的作用日益凸现，由于广西与东盟各国在资源禀赋方面存在较大的差异，因而其经贸关系存在着明显的互补性。     

The Interdependence of U.S. Troop Deployments and Trade in the Developing World

The relationship between political conflict and trade has contributed to a riveting discussion in international relations about whether trade produces conflict, or whether conflict itself reduces trade. Most studies proxy "the flag" using militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). However, extensions of "the flag" might well obtain in environments short of MIDs. A more general way to proxy the flag is troop deployments. The deployment of military troops is an essential element of foreign policy. Using panel data for 126 developing countries from 1965 to 2002 and a two-stage least square approach, this essay investigates the relationship between trade and United States troop deployments. We find that trade and troops have a nonrecursive relationship: trade follows the flag and troops follow trade. Given the increased insecurity in the world today, the results are timely and reinforce previous research about the reciprocal relationship between the flag and trade.     

中国与东帝汶关系的历史、现状及前景

东帝汶民主共和国(DemocraticRepublicofEastTimor)地处东南亚的边缘 ,位于太平洋与印度洋之间的努沙登加拉群岛最东端 ,西与印度尼西亚接壤 ,南和澳大利亚隔海相望 ,面积1.48万平方公里 ,首都帝力。东帝汶是世界上最年轻的国家 ,它原是葡萄牙殖民地 ,后被印度尼亚西所占领 ,最终在国际社会的帮助下 ,于2002年5月20日正式宣布独立。东帝汶是一个与我国相距万里之遥的小国 ,但在我国对外关系中亦占有不可忽视的地位。本文主要就中国与东帝汶关系的历史、现状与前景作一些介绍与分析。一中国与东帝汶两国人民之间的交往具有悠久的历史 ,南宋…     

A meta-analysis of income and democracy

The purpose of this article is to examine the relationship between per capita income and democracy. Namely, do increases in income per capita affect a regime’s level of democracy? The scholarly tradition has investigated this question over many years, and what we have learned about the actual association between these variables remains inconclusive. As opposed to producing yet another empirical analysis of this hypothesized relationship, this article sets forth to examine it via a new methodological approach. Applying the tools of meta-regression analysis to 33 individual empirical studies that investigate the relationship between income and democracy, this article finds that income has no statistically significant, quantitatively meaningful effect on democracy (understanding the latter as a graded concept). I also show that there is no theoretical or empirical reason to believe that this field of research is “haunted” by publication selection bias. Moreover, I identify a variety of systematic differences between these studies, that is, study heterogeneity, which explain why it is the case that after 60 years of research we still have not reached a consensus.     

武装组织治理制度与反叛成功

当前武装组织治理制度建设成为内战研究的重点。武装组织治理制度是武装组织对其控制区域和民众管理的相应制度与规则体系。以反叛成功为分析对象,通过系统评估武装组织治理制度建设对其内战中获得冲突优势的影响,可以看到,武装组织的反叛成功并不直接由武装组织治理制度决定,而是取决于武装组织治理制度在内部与外部产生的效果。在内部维度,武装组织治理制度需要取得良好的相对治理绩效;在外部维度,武装组织治理制度需要一个有利的国际战略环境并可对其进行塑造。而武装组织治理制度并不能确保相应效果的实现。通过混合研究的模式对以上观点进行检验:在定量研究方面,通过两个不同层次的数据库对于武装组织治理制度与反叛成功的关系进行检验,发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间无直接的联系;在案例比较研究方面,通过两个具体武装组织的实践案例(阿富汗塔利班和"伊斯兰国"组织)进行分析,可以发现武装组织治理制度与反叛成功之间的关系并不确定,因此并不存在简单的正向促进关系。     

Trilateral relations in a globalizing world. ASEM and the United States

Europe, the United States and East Asia are linked together through bilateral relations as well as a kind of trilateral relationship. There are three legs: Looking from a European perspective, the strongest relationship is the transatlantic relationship; secondly, there is a growing relationship between the United States and East Asia; and thirdly, the weakest link is the European-East Asian relationship.In this article I will focus, first, on this global triangle between East Asia, Europe and the United States. Secondly, I will discuss the question whether ASEM, APEC and ASEAN are competing or cooperating. Thirdly, I will analyze the question how the US looks at ASEM. Concluding I will argue that the US should take ASEM more seriously – not least because of US interests.This paper was written as part of a project on Backlash against Globalization that is supported by the Otto Wolff Foundation, Cologne, and The German Marshall Fund of the United States, Washington, DC.     

从法中德中风波看中欧关系

“3·14”西藏事件和奥运火炬在欧洲的接力风波引起法国和中国、德国和中国频繁发生摩擦，从而导致业已出现良好发展势头的中欧关系急转直下。中欧关系出现逆转是多种因素使然。对新形势下的中欧关系需要进行新的思考。     

Sources of Leader Support and Interstate Rivalry

Since segments of the selectorate differently experience costs and benefits from rivalry, the foreign policy choices of leaders reflect these domestic preferences. As a result, shifts in the composition of the domestic coalition of support backing the leader provide a fundamental determinant of rivalry termination. While previous research sought to explore the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination using regime transitions as a proxy for turnover of the state’s domestic ruling group, in practice this measure exhibits significant disconnection with the quantity of interest. Further, there are alternative pathways through which regime transitions may lead to rivalry termination. I test the relationship using new data from the CHISOLS project, finding that when rivals undergo a change in the source of support that maintains the leader in office, the probability of rivalry termination rises dramatically. I further find that regime transitions have an effect on the probability of rivalry termination that is independent of the effect of ruling coalition turnover. This study thus both asserts the relationship between domestic political turnover and rivalry termination and clarifies the mechanism by which the relationship operates.     

On the front lines of democracy: perceptions of electoral officials and democratic elections

Electoral officials play a crucial role in instilling confidence in elections and democracy. They are involved in the most important tasks of running elections, from registering voters to counting the ballots. This article employs survey data from 35 countries from the sixth wave of the World Values Survey (2010–2014) which asks respondents about their perceptions of electoral integrity and the quality of democracy in their country. The analysis demonstrates the relationship between perceptions of the fairness of electoral officials and two important outcomes: confidence in the fairness of the vote count, and perceptions of the overall quality of democracy. It additionally considers under which circumstances this relationship is most pronounced and shows that the relationship between an individual’s perceptions of electoral officials and perceptions of electoral integrity is more pronounced in countries where there is a low liberal democracy index.     

Political culture in Turkey: Connections among attitudes toward democracy,the military and Islam

Against the background of Turkey's continuing but unconsolidated democratic transition, this article examines the nature and determinants of attitudes toward democracy held by ordinary Turkish citizens. Using data from the World Values Survey conducted in Turkey in 1997, it seeks to contribute to a growing body of literature concerned with the relationship between political culture and democratization. Although this relationship has not been fully explicated, the authors share the view of those scholars who believe that the existence of democratic attitudes and values among a country's population is no less important than are democratic institutions and procedures for advancing and eventually consolidating a democratic transition. Accordingly, the study seeks to shed light on the following interrelated questions: To what extent does the Turkish population hold attitudes supportive of democracy? What are the most important determinants of popular support for democracy? What factors account for any observed variance in relevant political attitudes? What is the relationship between attitudes toward the military and attitudes toward democracy and governance? What is the relationship between personal religious attachments and attitudes toward democracy and governance?     

后金融危机时代的全球地缘政治变局与中国的机遇

源于美国次贷危机的全球金融危机对世界格局产生了深远影响,国际体系正经历着冷战结束以来最大的地缘政治变动。后危机时代,国际体系将发生一系列深刻变化:新兴大国群体崛起,传统大国趋向衰落,国际战略力量分化重组,多极化发展到一个新的阶段;中美力量对比发生此消彼长的重大变化,中美关系将成为今后一个时期全球最重要的双边关系;大国关系趋向缓和,全球和地区地缘对抗色彩淡化;国际秩序酝酿结构性调整,中国面临历史性机遇。     

中俄关系进入全面发展的新时期

中俄关系经过了15年发展历程,现已建立了稳定的政治和法律基础。中俄两国的政治、经济和军事关系稳定发展,在国际事务中的合作不断加强。随着中俄在经贸、能源、投资和文化交流领域合作的进一步扩大,中俄关系进入一个全面发展的新时期,展现出十分广阔的发展前景。     

中俄两国经贸关系发展现状及其广阔前景

中俄两国是重要的经济贸易伙伴。在经受了2008年全球金融和经济危机冲击后,中俄两国经贸关系全面恢复和迅速发展。在中俄政府总理定期会晤制度框架下,建立了两国经济合作对话与协商机制。近年来,中俄贸易规模不断扩大,能源领域的合作日益深化,相互投资不断增加,地区间的经济贸易关系全面发展。全面提升贸易质量,扩大贸易规模,增加相互投资,深化能源合作,推动地区间和边境地区经贸合作,加强经济现代化领域合作,将成为中俄经贸关系发展的重要方向。