RACIAL INEQUALITY AND RACIALLY DISAGGREGATED HOMICIDE RATES: AN ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVE THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS*

This research considers the relationship between levels of racial inequality and homicide rates for a sample of 154 U.S. cities. We identfy four causal processes that have been cited in the theoretical literature to explain the link between racial inequality and criminal violence. These diflerent causal explanations imply distinctive relationships between racial inequality and different types of homicide rates disaggregated by the racial characteristics of victims and offenders. Accordingly, we examine the effects of racial inequality on racially disaggregated homicide rates, as well as on total rates. We also introduce factor scales to alleviate the common problem of multicollinearity. Our results reveal significant, positive coefficients for racial inequality in equations predicting total homicide rates and race-specific offending rates. These results offer greatest support for theoretical arguments emphasizing a generalized effect of racial inequality on the offending behavior of residents of metropolitan communities.     

VARIATION IN AFRICAN-AMERICAN HOMICIDE RATES: AN ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL EXPLANATIONS*

Using 1990 data for 222 metropolitan areas, this study extends the traditional variables examined in models of homicide and uses regression analysis to test the viability of three alternative theories that may explain high rates of African-American homicide victimization. The first approach examines the extent to which weak forms of social control have contributed to high homicide rates. The second approach tests the notion that discrimination and inequality have increased levels of absolute and relative deprivation for blacks, which in turn engender frustration and contribute to higher levels of violence. The third approach posits that engagement in violent activity may be a rational act for young African-American males faced with the reality of highly limited economic opportunities. While all three approaches contribute to explaining high African-American homicide, this study shows the greatest support for the social control explanation.     

COMMUNITIES,STREET GUNS AND HOMICIDE TRAJECTORIES IN CHICAGO, 1980–1995: MERGING METHODS FOR EXAMINING HOMICIDE TRENDS ACROSS SPACE AND TIME*

We merge Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and a semi‐parametric, group‐based trajectory procedure (TRAJ) to classify communities in Chicago by violence trajectories across space. Total, street gun and other weapon homicide trajectories are identified across 831 census tracts between 1980 and 1995. We find evidence consistent with a weapon substitution effect in violent neighborhoods that are proximate to one another, a defensive diffusion effect of exclusively street gun‐specific homicide increases in neighborhoods bordering the most violent areas, and a spatial decay effect of temporal homicide trends in which the most violent areas are buffered from the least violent by places experiencing mid‐range levels of lethal violence over time. In merging these two methods of data analysis, we provide a more efficient way to describe both spatial and temporal trends and make significant advances in furthering applications of space‐time methodologies.     

STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF U.S. COUNTY HOMICIDE RATES: INCORPORATING SPATIAL EFFECTS*

Spatial analysis is statistically and substantively important for macrolevel criminological inquiry. Using county‐level data for the decennial years in the 1960 to 1990 time period, we reexamine the impact of conventional structural covariates on homicide rates and explicitly model spatial effects. Important findings are: (1) homicide is strongly clustered in space; (2) this clustering cannot be completely explained by common measures of the structural similarity of neighboring counties; (3) noteworthy regional differences are observed in the effects of structural covariates on homicide rates; and (4) evidence consistent with a diffusion process for homicide is observed in the South throughout the 1960–1990 period.     

THE JUVENILE PENALTY: A COMPARISON OF JUVENILE AND YOUNG ADULT SENTENCING OUTCOMES IN CRIMINAL COURT*

This study uses criminal court data from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing (PCS) to investigate the sentencing of juvenile offenders processed in adult criminal court by comparing their sentencing outcomes to those of young adult offenders in similar situations. Because the expanded juvenile exclusion and transfer policies of the 1990s have led to an increase in the number of juveniles convicted in adult courts, we argue that it is critical to better understand the judicial decision making processes involved. We introduce competitive hypotheses on the relative leniency or severity of sentencing outcomes for transferred juveniles and interpret our results with the focal concerns theoretical perspective on sentencing. Our findings indicate that juvenile offenders in adult court are sentenced more severely than their young adult counterparts. Moreover, findings suggest that juvenile status interacts with and conditions the effects of other important sentencing factors including offense type, offense severity and prior criminal record. We discuss these results as they relate to immediate outcomes for transferred juveniles, criminal court processes in general and the broader social implications for juvenile justice policy concerning the transfer of juveniles to criminal court.     

FEMALE AND MALE HOMICIDE VICTIMIZATION RATES: COMPARING TRENDS AND REGRESSORS*

This study compares national female and male homicide victimization rates (HVRs) during 1930–1995. The trends are almost the same, even when separated by race, in spite of large gender differences in HVR levels. When regressing female and male HVRs on demographic, economic, social control, and other variables, the coefficients differ between the sexes only to the extent expected by chance. The important predictors relate to offenders and are independent of the type of victim; the incapacitation impact of prison populations is especially strong for all HVRs. This is consistent with others' findings that men who murder women, and even those who commit sexual and partner assaults, have criminal records nearly as bad as offenders generally. These findings have implications for several broader topics: the usefulness of data dis-aggregation, the usefulness of crime situation theories, the reasons for declining homicide rates, and strategies for reducing violence against women.     

THE IMPACT OF OUT-OF-STATE PRISON POPULATION ON STATE HOMICIDE RATES: DISPLACEMENT AND FREE-RIDER EFFECTS*

Past studies of the impact of prison population on homicide rates have produced widely divergent results. Those using state-level data find small impacts, but those using national data find very large ones. We use displacement/free-rider theory to explore the difference between these results. Displacement, in the current context, refers to a criminal's movement away from states with higher imprisonment rates. Free riding occurs when a state benefits from criminals being incarcerated in other states. If the displacement effect holds, a state's prison population has a stronger impact on crime within the state than would be accomplished by deterrence and incapacitation alone. If the free-rider effect holds, higher prison populations outside the state reduce homicide in the state because criminals are incapacitated elsewhere. Using vital statistics data for 1929 to 1992, we conduct separate homicide regressions for each state using both in-state and out-of-state prison population as independent variables. We find that the out-of-state variable has a much larger (negative) association with homicide, indicating substantial free riding. We also find evidence of a small displacement impact.     

RESTITUTION AND RECIDIVISM RATES OF JUVENILE OFFENDERS: RESULTS FROM FOUR EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES*

One of the major changes in juvenile justice during the past decade has been the increased reliance on restitution as a sanction for juvenile offenders. Although a great deal has been learned during the past 10 years about the operation of restitution programs, much remains unknown regarding its impact on recidivism rates. This report contains the results from four random-assignment experiments conducted simultaneously in four communities: Boise, Idaho, Washington, D. C., Clayton County, Georgia, and Oklahoma County, Oklahoma. In all four studies, youths were randomly assigned into restitution and into traditional dispositions. On the whole, the results show that restitution may have a small but important effect on recidivism. However, not all programs will be able to achieve this effect, either because of program management and strategy, community circumstances, or other factors. Youths in the restitution groups never had higher recidivism rates than those in probation or detention conditions. In two of the four studies, the juveniles in restitution clearly had fewer subsequent recontacts with the court during the two-to-three-year follow-up.     

THE VIOLENT WEST REEXAMINED: A RESEARCH NOTE ON REGIONAL HOMICIDE RATES*

Studies by O'Carroll and Mercy and by Kowalski and Petee challenge the long-held view that the South leads the nation in homicide rates. Specifically, O'Carroll and Mercy find that when killings by state are disaggregated by race, the West has the highest levels of homicide for whites, blacks, and other races. Kowalski and Petee conclude that homicide rates in the South and the West have converged. We extend their research by examining the effect, on levels of killing, of metropolitan concentration of black and white populations within states and of the percentage of the white population of Hispanic origin within SMSAs. Results of these analyses show that the homicide rate for non-Hispanic whites remains highest in the South; no clear regional pattern exists for blacks.     

FAMILY,ACQUAINTANCE, AND STRANGER HOMICIDE: ALTERNATIVE PROCEDURES FOR RATE CALCULATIONS*

This paper describes the extent of missing data within the Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR), collected as part of the Uniform Crime Reporting Program of the FBI. The yearly SHR provides coded information on the victim, the offender, and the circumstances of all reported homicides in the United States. Thus, the data allow the computation of specific kinds of homicide rates, such as those involving family members, acquaintances, and strangers. However, missing data within reported events, primarily on offender characteristics and thus the victim/offender relationship, present a serious obstacle to the accurate calculation of such rates. The authors propose computational procedures designed to compensate for missing data and empirically evaluate the impact of these procedures on comparative analyses of homicide rates for cities, metropolitan areas, and states.     

POVERTY,INFANT MORTALITY,AND HOMICIDE RATES IN CROSS-NATIONAL PERSPECTIVE: ASSESSMENTS OF CRITERION AND CONSTRUCT VALIDITY*

This article assesses the extent to which the infant mortality rate might be treated as a “proxy” for poverty in research on cross-national variation in homicide rates. We have assembled a pooled, cross-sectional time-series data set for 16 advanced nations from the 1993–2000 period that includes standard measures of infant mortality and homicide and contains information on the following commonly used “income-based” poverty measures: a measure intended to reflect “absolute” deprivation and a measure intended to reflect “relative” deprivation. With these data, we assess the criterion validity of the infant mortality rate with reference to the two income-based poverty measures. Also, we estimate the effects of the various indicators of disadvantage on homicide rates in regression models, thereby assessing construct validity. The results reveal that the infant mortality rate is correlated more strongly with “relative poverty” than with “absolute poverty,” although much unexplained variance remains. In the regression models shown here, the measure of infant mortality and the relative poverty measure yield significant positive effects on homicide rates, whereas the absolute poverty measure does not exhibit any significant effects. The results of our analyses suggest that it would be premature to dismiss relative deprivation in cross-national research on homicide, and that disadvantage is conceptualized and measured best as a multidimensional construct.     

A REGIONAL ANALYSIS OF HOMICIDE RATES IN THE UNITED STATES

Variations in regional homicide rates are examined in order to determine whether or not these areas are homogeneous An analysis of varbnce repeatedly isolates southern regions as having pronounced homicide rates. Intraregional varintions are noted. They indicate a need for a revision of Gastil's “Index of Southernness.” Finally, varktions are interpreted within a subcultural context.     

COUNTING CRIME BOOMS AMONG NATIONS: EVIDENCE FOR HOMICIDE VICTIMIZATION RATES, 1956 TO 1998*

Constructionists argue that crime booms are rare, modernizationalists predict that booms have been limited to industrializing nations, and globalizationalists claim that booms are universal among nations since World War II. We define crime booms as rates that increase rapidly and exhibit a positive sustained change in direction and use econometric methods to test for booms with homicide victimization rates for 34 nations, 1956 to 1998. Twelve nations satisfied our criteria for booms—too many to support constructionists, but too few to support globalizationalists. In support of modernizationalists, 70% of industrializing nations qualified as having booms, but fewer than 21% of industrialized nations did. Future research should explain industrializing nations that do not experience booms and industrialized nations that do.     

AN ERRORS-IN-VARIABLE MODEL OF THE EFFECT OF POVERTY ON URBAN HOMICIDE RATES

Inconsistent findings on the relationship between poverty and violent crime have led some authors to question the presence of a structural relationship. There is reason, however, to believe that many of the existing estimates are biased because measures of poverty contain errors which are confounded with disturbances in the estimated models. In this paper we specify and estimate a model which accommodates the measurement error and provides an instrumental variable estimate of the effects of poverty on homicide rates in the 49 largest cities in the U.S. Compared to similar OLS estimates, the instrumental variable estimates are much larger and fit a model in which poverty increases the homicide rate. The results are similar when homicides are divided into four types: family homicides, other primary homicides, robbery homicides, and other-felony homicides     

TRANSFERRED JUVENILES IN THE ERA OF SENTENCING GUIDELINES: EXAMINING JUDICIAL DEPARTURES FOR JUVENILE OFFENDERS IN ADULT CRIMINAL COURT*

This study contributes to contemporary research on the punishment of juvenile offenders in adult court by analyzing the use of guidelines departures for transferred juveniles in two states, one with presumptive sentencing guidelines (Pennsylvania) and one with voluntary guidelines (Maryland). Propensity score matching is first used to create more comparable samples of juvenile and young adult offenders, and then Tobit regressions are employed to estimate the effect of juvenile status on the likelihood and length of departures. Our findings indicate that juvenile status significantly affects the use of upward departures in Pennsylvania, and the use of both downward and upward departures in Maryland. Judicial reasons for departure are examined to provide additional insight into the complex dynamics surrounding exceptional sentences for juvenile offenders sentenced in adult court.     

DEINSTITUTIONALIZATION OF JUVENILE OFFENDERS*

This research investigated the effects of the closing of a juvenile correctional institution. A nonequivalent control group design was used to compare the effects of the closing on placements and criminal behavior for three groups (N = 927) whose institutionalization experiences differed. Official crime data were obtained for all, and interviews were attempted with 752 juveniles. The noninstitutionalized group's recidivism was significantly higher than that of the institutionalized groups both during and after the period of institutionalization. Consistent group differences in offending were observed for crimes against property but not for crimes involving drugs or crimes against persons. These differences were significant but not as pronounced when only the most serious crimes were considered. Implications for the design of effective juvenile correctional strategies are discussed.     

SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD FIREARM COLLECTIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR SUBCULTURES AND GENDER*

Recent work (Cook and Ludwig, 2003) has linked local firearm density to increased burglary victimization risk. The current work investigates within‐household gun density or household firearm collection size. Previous work has suggested two subcultures of gun owners: protection‐minded and sport‐ or hunting‐minded. It also has identified gender gaps in reporting any household guns and in the number reported. None of the earlier work, however, has controlled for selection into gun‐owning household status. This limitation raises potential questions about earlier findings. The current research controls for selection. If the two subcultures thesis is correct, protection‐minded owners should report smaller household firearm collections. The expected impact is observed in one national survey and is partially replicated in a second. Gender gaps seemed more independent than previously suggested. This study is the first to provide evidence of two partially overlapping subcultures of gun owners even after controlling for selection into gun‐owning household status. Practical implications for burglary risk may exist.     

EXAMINING THE PREVALENCE OF CRIMINAL DESISTANCE*

Criminological theorists and criminal justice policy makers place a great deal of importance on the idea of desistance. In general terms, criminal desistance refers to a cessation of offending activity among those who have offended in the past. Some significant challenges await those who would estimate the relative size of the desisting population or attempt to identify factors that predict membership in that population. In this paper, we consider several different analytic frameworks that represent an array of plausible definitions. We then illustrate some of our ideas with an empirical example from the 1958 Philadelphia Birth Cohort Study.