HOMICIDE,STRUCTURAL FACTORS,AND THE RACIAL INVARIANCE ASSUMPTION*

Structural theories in criminology generally assume that the effects of structural conditions on homicide are the same for all race-groups. However, previous homicide research testing this assumption contains methodological shortcomings and has produced inconsistent findings. Therefore, the validity of the “racial invariance assumption” remains highly questionable. Using 1990 data for 125 U.S. cities, this study addresses some of the limitations of previous research in an effort to provide a more definitive examination of race differences in the effects of important structural factors on homicide rates. Contrary to the expectations of the structural perspective, the results from this study reveal substantial and statistically significant race differences. Specifically, the associations between homicide and several measures of socio-economic deprivation (e.g., poverty, unemployment, income inequality, female-headed households, deprivation index) are found to be stronger among whites than blacks. A primary implication of these results is that the current versions of many structural theories need revision in order to account for observed race differences in the effects of structural factors and to explain fully the black-white gap in homicide rates.     

Structural Determinants of Homicide: The Big Three

Building upon and expanding the previous research into structural determinants of homicide, particularly the work of Land, McCall, and Cohen (1990), the current paper introduces a multilevel theoretical framework that outlines the influences of three major structural forces on homicidal violence. The Big Three are poverty/low education, racial composition, and the disruption of family structure. These three factors exert their effects on violence at the following levels: neighborhood/community level, family/social interpersonal level, and individual level. It is shown algebraically how individual-level and aggregate-level effects contribute to the size of regression coefficients in aggregate-level analyses. In the empirical part of the study, the presented theoretical model is tested using county-level data to estimate separate effects of each of the Big Three factors on homicide at two time periods: 1950–1960 and 1995–2005 (chosen to be as far removed from one another as the availability of data allows). All major variables typically used in homicide research are included as statistical controls. The results of analyses show that the effects of the three major structural forces—poverty/low education, race, and divorce rates—on homicide rates in US counties are remarkably strong. Moreover, the effect sizes of each of the Big Three are found to be identical for both time periods despite profound changes in the economic and social situation in the United States over the past half-century. This remarkable stability in the effect sizes implies the stability of homicidal violence in response to certain structural conditions.     

Social support and homicide in transitional Russia

Like the United States, Russia is a large industrialized nation with high violence rates. Although its overall homicide rate is among the highest in the world, however, local rates of crime vary widely. Similarly, the level of social support provided by the state varies throughout Russia due to former Soviet policies, the differential pace of political and economic change, and the level of development. Relying upon recent criminological literature on social support theory, this study tested the hypotheses that areas with higher levels of social support will have lower homicide rates and that the effects of negative socioeconomic change on homicide rates will be moderated by levels of social support. Utilizing data from Russian regions (n = 78) and controlling for other structural covariates, negative binomial regression was employed to estimate the effects of social support on regional homicide rates. As expected, negative socioeconomic change was associated with higher homicide rates, but the results provided no support for direct or conditioning effects of social support on homicide. The findings are discussed in the context of Russia-specific conditions and of the meaning of these findings for recent research on social support and crime.     

STRUCTURAL CONDITIONS AND RACIAL HOMICIDE PATTERNS: A LOOK AT THE MULTIPLE DISADVANTAGES IN URBAN AREAS*

This research examines the differential effects of structural conditions on race-specific victim and offender homicide rates in large U.S. cities in 1990. While structural theories of race relations and criminological explanations are reviewed, particular attention is given to those structural theories that highlight racial competition, economic and labor market opportunity, and racial segregation as essential for an examination of racially disaggregated homicide offending. The effects of these and other structural conditions are estimated for four racially distinct homicide offending models—black intraracial, white intraracial, black interracial, and white interracial homicides. The results suggest that the structural conditions that lead to race-specific victim and offender homicide rates differ significantly among the four models. Economic deprivation and local opportunity structures are found to influence significantly the rates of intraracial homicide offending, while racial inequality contributes solely to black interracial homicide rates. In addition, our findings indicate that blacks and whites face different economic and social realities related to economic deprivation and social isolation. The differential impact of these structural conditions and other labor market factors are discussed.     

A Move Toward Specificity: Examining Urban Disadvantage and Race-and Relationship-Specific Homicide Rates

The purpose of this research is to estimate the differential impact of structural conditions on race- and relationship-specific homicide rates for U.S. cities in 1990. The structural conditions commonly employed in race-specific homicide research are examined, such as job accessibility, economic deprivation, racial segregation, and racial inequality. Furthermore, four relationship categories of homicide—acquaintance, family, stranger, and intimate—are disaggregated by racial group. The detailed relationship-specific homicide rates are compared to a baseline homicide rate to determine whether structural factors associated with urban disadvantage similarly influence homicide rates across relationship types. The results indicate that differences emerge in the impact of structural conditions on homicides disaggregated by race- and relationship-specific categories. Theoretical explanations consistent with criminology and race-relations literature are discussed, as well as the potential benefits and implications for studies that pursue more meaningful and detailed classifications in homicide offending.     

Armed Americans: The impact of firearm availability on national homicide rates

This study examines the relationship between firearm availability and national homicide rates. The theoretical and empirical literatures are reviewed, and a cross-national two-stage least squares regression analysis is described. The relationship between a circa 1990 measure of firearm availability and the average 1990–1994 homicide rate is examined across 36 countries. Two-stage least squares regression, which controls for homicide's effect on firearm availability in addition to a number of other confounding factors, reveals a statistically significant positive effect of firearm availability on national homicide rates. The magnitude of the association is considerable. The observed relationship is found to be insensitive to sample composition. Results also indicate that homicide rates do not influence levels of firearm availability. The limitations of the study and avenues for future research are discussed.     

POLICING,DRUGS, AND THE HOMICIDE DECLINE IN NEW YORK CITY IN THE 1990s*

This research reassesses the role of policing and drugs in the sharp homicide decline in New York City in the 1990s. Drawing on theoretical arguments about “broken windows” policing and lethal violence associated with the diffusion of crack cocaine, we estimate the effects of measures of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence on homicide rates with pooled, cross‐sectional time‐series data for 74 New York City precincts over the 1990–1999 period. The results of mixed regression models reveal a significant negative effect of changes in misdemeanor arrests and a significant positive effect of changes in cocaine prevalence on changes in total homicide rates. Additional analyses of homicide disaggregated by weapon indicate that the effects of misdemeanor arrests and cocaine prevalence emerge for gun‐related but not for non‐gun‐related homicides. Overall, the research generally supports influential interpretations of the homicide decline in New York City but also raises questions about underlying mechanisms that warrant more inquiry in future research.     

Immigration and the Changing Nature of Homicide in US Cities, 1980–2010

Objectives

Previous research has neglected to consider whether trends in immigration are related to changes in the nature of homicide. This is important because there is considerable variability in the temporal trends of homicide subtypes disaggregated by circumstance. In the current study, we address this issue by investigating whether within-city changes in immigration are related to temporal variations in rates of overall and circumstance-specific homicide for a sample of large US cities during the period between 1980 and 2010.

Methods

Fixed-effects negative binomial and two-stage least squares (2SLS) instrumental variable regression models are used to analyze data from 156 large US cities observed during the 1980–2010 period.

Results

Findings from the analyses suggest that temporal change in overall homicide and drug homicide rates are significantly related to changes in immigration. Specifically, increases in immigration are associated with declining rates for each of the preceding outcome measures. Moreover, for several of the homicide types, findings suggest that the effects of changes in immigration vary across places, with the largest negative associations appearing in cities that had relatively high initial (i.e., 1970) immigration levels.

Conclusions

There is support for the thesis that changes in immigration in recent decades are related to changes in rates of lethal violence. However, it appears that the relationship is contingent and varied, not general.     

Structural correlates of female homicide: A cross-national analysis

The present study went beyond previous cross-national homicide research, which has largely focused on combined (male and female) rates of homicide offending, by using gender-disaggregated homicide arrest figures. The study included controls for the clearance rate and the percentage of homicides that were attempts, and included data for forty-eight countries across multiple levels of development. The author compared the effects of development/modernization and opportunity on female homicide rates to their effects on male homicide rates. Results indicated that, overall, structural predictors had very similar effects on male and female homicide rates. Both rates were lower in countries with a higher gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and neither male nor female homicide rates were related to urbanization. Countries with a higher number of people per household had a lower rate of both male and female homicide offending; however, this relationship only held when percent young was excluded from the model.     

Imprisonment v. the death penalty as a deterrent to murder

In this investigation we examine the simultaneous deterrent effect of imprisonment and executions on homicide. Examination of the census years 1920 to 1960 shows the certainty of execution and homicide rates to be generally unrelated. Also contrary to the deterrence hypothesis, the significant negative bivariate relationship between the severity of prison sentence and homicide rates found here and in earlier investigations is shown to be a statistical artifact resulting from a failure to control for the effects of alternative legal sanctions and sociodemographic factors. While neither imprisonment nor executions are found to have a significant deterrent effect on homicide, attention is called to some limitations of this investigation and the need for additional research.     

Homicide Trends and Illicit Drug Markets: Exploring Differences Across Time

Ample speculation and some evidence suggests that the decline in homicide rates since the early 1990s was partially attributable to declining levels of drug market activity. This analysis explores that explanation, along with an alternative: the strength of the drug market–lethal violence relationship has weakened over time. We outline several conceptual reasons to expect period‐specific differences in the drug market–homicide relationship. These include the aging of market participants, shifts in the normative and transactional climate of markets, and changes in structural factors affecting the magnitude of the relationship between drug market indicators and homicide rates (such as socioeconomic disadvantage). These arguments are evaluated for a sample of large US cities. The results generally show a pattern of attenuation in the drug market–homicide relationship and lead us to conclude that part of the homicide decline is likely due to a drop in the amount of drug market activity, some of it is attributable to the aging of drug market participants, and some appears to be due to unmeasured factors which may have created a “kinder and gentler” drug market.     

Job Access and Homicide Patterns in Chicago: An Analysis at Multiple Geographic Levels Based on Scale-Space Theory

Economists and criminologists have long tried to establish linkages between job markets and crime. Most prior research, however, was across large areas (e.g., states, metropolitan areas) or across time. This research focuses on examining the variation of job markets within a city (i.e., Chicago) and whether it is related to the spatial pattern of crime (i.e., homicide). The job market condition is measured by job accessibility, an index computed by a Geographic Information System (GIS) method. Multivariate regressions, controlling for other socioeconomic covariates, are used to analyze the relationship between job access and homicide rates. Considering problems with analysis of rare events such as homicide in small populations, this research constructs various levels of geographic areas from census tracts to generate more stable homicide rates with larger base populations. In particular, a spatial clustering method based on the scale-space theory is used to merge adjacent tracts of similar attributes into new geographic areas. The study shows an inverse relationship between job accessibility and homicide rates across census tracts and the newly-constructed geographic areas in Chicago.     

Can Cohort Replacement Explain Changes in the Relationship Between Age and Homicide Offending?

This paper focuses on shifts in the age distribution of homicide offending in the United States. This distribution remained remarkably stable with small but significant changes over a long period of time. Then between 1985 and 1990 the rates of homicide offending doubled for 15-to-19 year olds and increased nearly 40% for 20-to-24 year olds, while the homicide offending rates decreased for those over 30. In addition to this “epidemic of youth homicide,” which lasted through the mid-1990s, there have been systematic changes in the age distribution of homicide in the United States associated with cohort replacement over the past 40 years. We introduce an estimable function approach for estimating the effects of age, period, and cohort. The method allows us to assess simultaneously the impacts of periods and cohorts on the age distribution of homicide offending. We find that although the age curve remains relatively stable, there are shifts in it associated systematically with cohort replacement. Cohort replacement accounts for nearly half of the upturn in youth homicides during the epidemic of youth homicides, but a significant fraction of that upturn is not associated with cohort replacement.

Drug and alcohol use as determinants of New York City homicide trends from 1990 to 1998

In this population-level study, we analyzed how well changes in drug and alcohol use among homicide victims explained declining homicide rates in New York City between 1990 and 1998. Victim demographics, cause of death, and toxicology were obtained for all homicide (N = 12573) and accidental death victims (N = 6351) between 1990 and 1998 from the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of New York (OCME). The proportion of homicide and accident decedents positive for cocaine fell between 1990 and 1998 (13% and 9% respectively); the proportion of homicide and accident decedents positive for opiates and/or alcohol did not change significantly. Changing patterns of drug and alcohol use by homicide victims were comparable to changing patterns of drug and alcohol use in accident victims, suggesting that changes in drug and alcohol use among homicide victims between 1990 and 1998 cannot solely explain the decline in NYC homicide rates.     

GENDER,STRUCTURAL DISADVANTAGE,AND URBAN CRIME: DO MACROSOCIAL VARIABLES ALSO EXPLAIN FEMALE OFFENDING RATES?*

Building on prior macrosocial-crime research that sought to explain either total crime rates or male rates, this study links female offending rates to structural characteristics of U.S. cities. Specifically, we go beyond previous research by: (1) gender disaggregating the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) index-crime rates (homicide, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny-theft) across U.S. cities; (2) focusing explicitly on the effects of structural disadvantage variables on the index-offending rates of females; and (3) comparing the effects of the structural variables on female rates with those for male rates. Alternative measures of structural disadvantage are used to provide more theoretically appropriate indicators, such as gender-specific poverty and joblessness, and controls are included for age structure and structural variables related to offending. The main finding is consistent and powerful: The structural sources of high levels of female offending resemble closely those influencing male offending, but the effects tend to be stronger on male offending rates.     

THE STRUCTURAL COVARIATES OF URBAN HOMICIDE: REASSESSING THE IMPACT OF INCOME INEQUALITY AND POVERTY IN THE POST-REAGAN ERA*

Numerous studies have explored the relationship between rates of homicide and income inequality and poverty. However, a general consensus on the theoretical and empirical connections among these variables has yet to be reached. This article reports the findings of a city-level analysis of this relationship, using 1990 data for the 190 largest cities in the United States. In order to address several methodological and theoretical concerns in prior literature, three separate measures of inequality and three categories of disaggregated homicide rates are analyzed. The results suggest that both inequality and poverty have significant and independent positive effects on rates of homicide in U.S. cities following the largest increase in the economic gap between rich and poor in our nation's history.     

Gender equity, traditional masculine culture, and female homicide victimization

Several prior studies of gender equity and female violent victimization showed a positive relationship between the two, with some scholars defining this as a backlash effect due to increasing gender equity in the context of conservative gender role expectations. This assertion was tested here under a more general set of theories about real and perceived threats to White male dominance in the United States that suggested that the positive relationship between gender equity and female victimization was conditioned by the strength of traditional masculine culture. Using cross-sectional data and employing a commonly tested baseline model to control for other structural covariates of homicide rates, variables were introduced to represent gender income equity and different components of traditional masculine culture. Results confirmed a positive cross-sectional relationship between gender income equality and White non-Hispanic female homicide victimization rates, but did not show the expected interaction effects, leading the authors to conclude that other structural or cultural factors were the source of the positive relationship.     

LOCATING THE VANGUARD IN RISING AND FALLING HOMICIDE RATES ACROSS U.S. CITIES*

This research examines trends in U.S. homicide rates at the city level during the so‐called homicide epidemic in the latter decades of the 20th century. Using spline regression techniques to locate structural breaks in city‐level time series, we model the true trends of homicide rates to identify those cities that exhibited a meaningful boom and bust cycle. We then use Tobit regressions for all cities at risk of experiencing a cycle to estimate unbiased effects of theoretically important predictors on the timing of the phase changes. Our findings reveal that larger cities were more likely to experience an epidemic‐like pattern, and that densely populated cities characterized by high levels of deprivation tended to exhibit the rise and fall in homicide rates earlier than other cities.     

NEIGHBORHOOD INEQUALITY,COLLECTIVE EFFICACY,AND THE SPATIAL DYNAMICS OF URBAN VIOLENCE*

Highlighting resource inequality, social processes, and spatial interdependence, this study combines structural characteristics from the 1990 census with a survey of 8,872 Chicago residents in 1995 to predict homicide variations in 1996–1998 across 343 neighborhoods. Spatial proximity to homicide is strongly related to increased homicide rates, adjusting for internal neighborhood characteristics and prior homicide. Concentrated disadvantage and low collective efficacy—defined as the linkage of social control and cohesion—also independently predict increased homicide. Local organizations, voluntary associations, and friend/kinship networks appear to be important only insofar as they promote the collective efficacy of residents in achieving social control and cohesion. Spatial dynamics coupled with neighborhood inequalities in social and economic capacity are therefore consequential for explaining urban violence.     

Violent crime in Russia and the United States: 1990–1996

In spite of significant press attention to the dimensions of the crime problem in Russia during the 1990s, the scholarly literature on crime in Russia remains limited. In an attempt to address this limitation, this paper examines trends in violent crime in Russia during the period 1990–1996. To place the data in a comparative framework, we also examine data on reported violent crime in the United States during this period. Findings indicate the persistence of dramatically higher homicide rates in Russia, dramatic increases in reported robbery and aggravated assault rates, yet declines in rape rates. With the exception of homicide, violent crime rates remained below those in the U.S. We discuss implications of the findings and suggest additional research.