Where Are We, Where Do We Want to Be, How Do We Get There?

This article briefly summarises the core causal elements in the global predicament, focusing on the market system and the relatively neglected limits to growth, i.e. over-consumption, and then 'draws implications for the form a sustainable society must take'. 'The Simpler Way' must involve far less affluent lifestyles in small scale, highly self-sufficient and localised economies, within a zero-growth post-capitalist society. The paper continues by discussing the strategic implications and argues that the most promising arena in which to work for transition at this point in time is the Global Ecovillage Movement. Differences with orthodox left thinking about strategy are discussed, including the notion of attempting to build the new society before the old has been abandoned, the potential significance of setting examples and whether or not it makes sense to confront capitalism.     

Budgeting for Social Security Or: When Are Savings Really Savings?

Policy and budgetary debate about Social Security is greatly affected by understandings of how the program is financed and, therefore, what steps would make it more affordable in the future. Unfortunately, both the standard justifications for and criticisms of buildups in the Social Security trust funds do not reflect the extent to which such buildups in fact would help finance future program costs. This article argues for a different standard, based explicitly on the fiscal capacity of the federal government and the effect of the government's obligations to pay interest on that capacity. I explain how both this definition of the role of the trust funds, and a broader understanding of fiscal capacity, would affect analysis of Social Security's condition and of possible reforms.     

Intelligence Failures: What Are They Really and What Do We Do about Them?

Intelligence failures occur for more reasons than just sloppy tradecraft and are often attributable to decision-makers as well as to the intelligence community. Before exploring the subjective nature of intelligence failures, this article first discusses three foundational concepts underlying them: process vs. product, fact vs. judgment, and prediction. It then outlines major components of intelligence failures: accuracy, surprise, and the role of decision-makers, particularly unrealistic expectations and the use or non-use of intelligence. The article concludes with a discussion of what the intelligence community and decision-makers can do to deal with these three components.     

Testing for Necessary and/or Sufficient Causation: Which Cases Are Relevant?

Previous researchers have argued that necessary and/or sufficientcauses should be tested through research designs that consideronly cases with limited combinations of scores on the independentand the dependent variables. I explore the utility for causalinference of the design proposed by these authors, as comparedto an "All Cases Design." I find that, if researchers definethe population carefully and appropriately, each case in thepopulation contributes to causal inference and is thereforeuseful. Previous authors reject this claim on the basis of aview that holds constant the marginal distribution of eitherthe dependent or the independent variable across the workingand the alternate hypotheses. I argue that this restrictionis not generally appropriate, and hence, an analysis that samplesfrom the entire population is logically defensible. I also arguethat this design is more statistically efficient. A reanalysisof two well-known studies demonstrates that sampling from allcases in the relevant population produces greater confidencein the hypothesis than sampling only from cases that experiencethe outcome.     

Biology,Ideology, and Epistemology: How Do We Know Political Attitudes Are Inherited and Why Should We Care?

Evidence that political attitudes and behavior are in part biologically and even genetically instantiated is much discussed in political science of late. Yet the classic twin design, a primary source of evidence on this matter, has been criticized for being biased toward finding genetic influence. In this article, we employ a new data source to test empirically the alternative, exclusively environmental, explanations for ideological similarities between twins. We find little support for these explanations and argue that even if we treat them as wholly correct, they provide reasons for political science to pay more rather than less attention to the biological basis of attitudes and behaviors. Our analysis suggests that the mainstream socialization paradigm for explaining attitudes and behaviors is not necessarily incorrect but is substantively incomplete.     

Selfish and Cooperative Voting: Can the Majority Restrain Themselves?

At every scale from small committees to national elections, voters face tradeoffs between self-interest and the common good. We report three experiments in which participants vote for policies with real payoffs at stake. We manipulate self-interest by randomly assigning participants to two groups in society with different policy payoffs. Participants in the majority group are confronted by a simple choice between a policy that is better for themselves or a policy that is best for society. Overall, we find a clear effect of self-interest: Participants are more likely to choose the policy that earns them more money, compared to participants in the other group, even when the policy is detrimental to the common good. Simultaneously, we observe considerable levels of cooperative voting among participants in the majority, ranging from 47% to 79% across different payoff regimes. Finally, participants were not more cooperative when voting compared to when they chose between the same policies with a lottery or leader institution, departing from the hypothesis that voting institutions promote cooperative motives. We discuss implications for multiple literatures about voting behavior.

     

Public Sector Collaboration: Are We Doing It Well and Could We Do It Better?

Improving collaboration by public sector agencies is an important element of many public sector reforms. Common approaches include introducing responsibilities under legislation and policy decisions, the provision of information and guidance, and strengthening third‐party oversight. To identify how collaboration is being practised, this paper reviews evidence from over one hundred reports by Auditors‐General and Ombudsmen in Australia and New Zealand to identify key attributes of collaboration, and assesses these further by examining three reports in detail. It concludes that problems that have been known for many years continue to constrain public sector effectiveness. Although continuing existing approaches may assist in improving collaboration, the paper argues that there is a need to adopt more systematic approaches to organisational capacity for collaboration. It further identifies that changes in the external environment such as technology‐based innovation may demand rapid progress and change in relation to collaboration.     

Why Do Experienced Challengers Do Better than Amateurs?

Politically experienced challengers are more successful in seeking political office than amateurs. The relationship is found so regularly that political experience has become the standard ex ante indicator of challenger quality in studies of American elections. Despite this, little work has investigated why experienced challengers are so successful. Many scholars attribute the relationship to inherent differences between experienced challengers and amateurs: experienced challengers have stronger electoral skills and greater access to material resources. I argue that these differences play a role, but an indirect one. Rather, experienced challengers are lead by both their resource advantage and the high amount of risk they are exposed to in seeking office to run in races in which their party has a good chance of winning. Thus, the direct cause of the experienced challengers’ success is self-selection into winnable races. Empirical analysis supports the self-selection model over a model in which resources directly lead to success.

Why Are they Silent?

A frustrating feature in the Chinese higher educational landscape is the ubiquitous and appalling lack of student responsiveness in the classroom. Most of the explanations that have been provided for the causes of the unilateralism in the classroom discourse of Chinese higher education have placed under scrutiny various factors, from personal traits of students, such as shyness, to Confucianism. All these explanations attribute this unilateralism to, if not blame it on, the same external factor: the cultural specificity of Chinese college student. Whereas it is right to narrow the search for the causes down to the domain of culture, it does not really make much sense to simply single out parts of the Chinese culture for explanations. Instead of dwelling on specific components of the Chinese culture, the present article proposes drawing the attention to a certain functional mechanism within the culture: self-construal, which is also manifested in other cultures. It argues that the students’ minimum discourse performance in Chinese university classrooms can be understood as a result of their semi-conscious act of internal modeling, which entails confirming and reinforcing their identities based on evaluations of the situation and conforming to certain social norms that are prevalent in school. The self-construal in Chinese university classrooms perfectly reflects a kind of power imbalance between the teacher and students, which has a profound shaping force upon the students in their modeling of self-identity in regard to that of the teacher and is not conducive to students’ overall development, as it inhibits critical thinking and real academic innovation.     

Do elections bring optimism?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of elections on economic sentiment. Using monthly data from 14 EU countries over the 1985–2011 period, we show that there is a significant improvement, statistically and economically, of sentiment of the month that elections take place, but this effect is rather short lived, lasting on average less than two months.     

Are We Civilized Yet?

The term “civilization” has been used in many contexts where accusations of Western imperialism, racism, and the like do not at all apply. Works on the history of science and technology in ancient cultures provide one such example, when they speak of Egyptian civilization or early Chinese civilization. It is also not true that works of the Enlightenment view the non-western world as less civilized and inferior. An entire genre of writing inspired by Jesuit accounts discovered in China a higher form of society that Europe should emulate. Two such works were Oliver Goldsmith’s Letters from a Citizen of the World and François Quesnay’s Le Despostisme de la chine, which offer, respectively, an extended satire and a sharp critique of European society.     

Do associations support authoritarian rule? Evidence from Algeria,Mozambique, and Vietnam

Whether associations help to democratize authoritarian rule or support those in power is a contested issue that so far lacks a cross-regional, comparative perspective. In this article we focus on five types of associations in three post-socialist countries, situated in different world regions, that are governed by authoritarian regimes. We first explore how infrastructural and discursive state power impact such associations and vice versa. We then discuss whether these associations support the development of citizens’ collective and individual self-determination and autonomy and/or whether they negate such self-determination and autonomy – a state of affairs that is at the core of authoritarianism.

Our analysis addresses decision-making in associations and three specific policy areas. We find that most of the covered associations accept or do not openly reject state/ruling party interference in their internal decision-making processes. Moreover, in most of these associations the self-determination and autonomy of members are restricted, if not negated. With respect to HIV/AIDS policy, associations in Algeria and Vietnam toe the official line, and thus contribute, unlike their counterparts in Mozambique, to negating the self-determination and autonomy of affected people and other social minorities. Looking at enterprise promotion policy, we find that the co-optation of business and professionals’ associations in all three countries effectively limits democratizing impulses. Finally, in all three countries many, but not all, of the interviewed associations support state-propagated norms concerning gender and gender relationships, thus contributing to limiting the self-determination and autonomy of women in the private sphere.