The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version as Predictors of Official and Self-reported Disciplinary Infractions

A total of 159 male inmates screened with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and Level of Service Inventory-Revised: Screening Version (LSI-R:SV) were followed for a period of 24 months for evidence of disciplinary infractions (incident reports). Eighty-three of these inmates also furnished a self-report of disciplinary infractions occurring during the 24-month follow-up. The PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score and LSI-R:SV total score correlated with and accurately identified the presence of an officially recorded disciplinary infraction, an officially recorded severe disciplinary infraction, and a self-reported disciplinary infraction but only age and the GCT score achieved incremental validity when age, GCT, and LSI-R:SV were included as predictors in the same probit regression or loglinear survival equation.     

The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version as Incrementally Valid Predictors of Recidivism

A follow-up of 107 male federal prison inmates previously tested with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV) was conducted to test the incremental validity of both measures. The PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score was found to predict general recidivism and serious recidivism when age, prior charges, and the PCL:SV were controlled. The PCL:SV, on the other hand, failed to predict general and serious recidivism when age, prior charges, and the PICTS were controlled. These findings support the hypothesis that content-relevant self-report measures like the PICTS are capable of predicting crime-relevant outcomes above and beyond the contributions of basic demographic variables like age, criminal history, and such popular non-self-report rating procedures as the PCL:SV.     

Incremental Validity of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles and Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version in Predicting Disciplinary Outcome

A group of 136 male inmates housed in a medium security federal correctional institution were followed for a period of 24 months for evidence of disciplinary infractions (incident reports) after completing the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) and being scored on the Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (PCL:SV). Age, prior incident reports, the PICTS General Criminal Thinking (GCT) score, and the PCL:SV total score were included in a series of negative binomial regressions and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analyses of three increasingly more serious outcomes: total incident reports, major incident reports, and aggressive incident reports. Results indicated that the PICTS GCT score and PCL:SV total score were incrementally valid predictors of all three outcomes, with the strongest effects occurring when more severe incident reports were predicted. On the other hand, only the PICTS GCT score and Proactive Criminal Thinking (P) scale produced more than one significant ROC finding.     

Predicting reconviction using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English prisoners

Purpose. The purpose of this study was to investigate the utility of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) in predicting reconviction in a sample of male prisoners. Method. The PICTS was administered to 174 incarcerated male offenders at the point of their release from prison. Reconviction data were collected at a 2‐year follow‐up. Results. Of the eight PICTS scales, only superoptimism differed significantly between reconvicted and non‐reconvicted prisoners, even when age and number of previous convictions were controlled for. Reconvicted offenders scored significantly higher on superoptimism, indicating a more criminal attitude. This finding was supported by a sequential logistic regression, where superoptimism contributed significant predictive power to predicting reconviction beyond a model containing age and number of previous convictions. Conclusions. The results are compared with previous research using the PICTS to predict release outcome. The utility of the PICTS as a predictor for release outcome is discussed.     

Predicting institutional adjustment with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles composite scales: Replication and extension

Purpose . The principal aim of this study is to determine whether the Proactive (P) and Reactive (R) composite scales of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) are capable of predicting institutional adjustment in a group of medium security prison inmates. Method . The P and R composite scales were correlated with dichotomized and count measures of total, non‐aggressive and aggressive incident reports (IRs) received during a 2‐year period in a group of 219 male medium security US federal prisoners. Results . The R scale predicted dichotomized total, non‐aggressive, and aggressive IRs (point biserial correlations, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, classification analyses) and all three classes of count IRs (negative binomial regression) when age, education, race, marital status, confining offence, prior disciplinary record, program completion and time in the institution were controlled. The P scale, on the other hand, predicted dichotomized total (point biserial correlation, classification analysis) and non‐aggressive (point biserial correlation, ROC) IRs and the total disciplinary count when age, education, race, marital status, confining offence, prior disciplinary record, program completion and time in institution were accounted for in a negative binomial regression. Conclusion . The modest but consistent relationship observed between the R scale and subsequent disciplinary infractions suggests that R may well serve as one component of a larger assessment battery for identifying inmate's at risk for future disciplinary problems.     

Using the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English prisoners

Purpose. This study considers the use of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) within an English prison population. Method. The reliability and validity of the PICTS scales were investigated, and scores compared with data from an American prison population. Results. The results suggested that the PICTS was functioning in a similar way in both populations, although the English population's scores were higher. The calculation of test‐retest change scores over the duration of 6‐12‐month sentences allowed the sensitivity of PICTS scales to change over time to be analysed, an aspect of the PICTS functioning that had not previously been examined. This analysis over time suggested that evenwhen the effect of age was controlled for, changes were occurring over the duration of the sentence. Conclusion. The potential of the PICTS as a measure of change, aswell as assessment, is discussed.     

The use of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles with English young offenders

Objectives. This study examines the psychometric properties of the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) with a sample of imprisoned English young offenders. Method. The reliability and validity of the PICTS scales were investigated, and changes in scores on the PICTS scales over a 6‐month period were analysed. Results. The findings suggested that from a psychometric perspective the PICTS scales were not performing as well with young offenders as with adult prisoner samples. The indices of reliability and validity were of a moderate level. Test‐retest scores calculated over the 6 months showed little change on the PICTS scores. Conclusion. The use of the PICTS scales with young offenders is discussed with reference to previous research with adult offenders in England and North America.     

Predicting outcome with the Level of Service Inventory-Revised: The importance of implementation integrity

Correctional agencies face increasing pressure to provide more services for increasing caseloads with fewer resources. The Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) is a risk/need assessment instrument that was designed to assist correctional agencies in classifying offenders based upon risk of re-offending, thereby allowing agencies to assign appropriate levels of risk/need and develop intervention/case-plans accordingly. Although predictive validity of the LSI-R has been demonstrated, very little attention has been paid to the effect that staff training and agency experience have on the validity of this comprehensive, dynamic risk/need assessment tool. The use of formalized training and agency experience were found to be important factors that may determine the validity of the risk/need scores that are gleaned from the LSI-R assessment process.     

Effect of test administration set on the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS)

The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS) was administered to 160 male prisoners on admission to a medium-security federal correctional facility. A total of 106 of these inmates completed the PICTS a second time 6 months later in a routine follow-up of the intake PICTS; the other 54 inmates completed the PICTS a second time approximately 6 months later during the initial session of a psychological group. Results showed that inmates participating in the psychological group were less defensive and endorsed more criminal thinking items on the second administration of the PICTS, whereas inmates participating in the routine follow-up were more defensive and less likely to endorse criminal thinking items on the second PICTS. Despite a general increase in the magnitude of PICTS scores for program participants, the overall pattern of scale elevations (correlations between scales and high-point pairs) was comparable across the two groups.     

Utility of the Revised Level of Service Inventory (LSI-R) in Predicting Recidivism After Long-Term Incarceration

Assessing an inmate’s risk for recidivism may become more challenging as the length of incarceration increases. Although the population of Long-Term Inmates (LTIs) is burgeoning, no risk assessment tools have been specifically validated for this group. Based on a sample of 1,144 inmates released in a state without parole, we examine the utility of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R) in assessing risk of general and violent felony recidivism for LTIs (n = 555). Results indicate that (a) the LSI-R moderately predicts general, but not necessarily violent, recidivism, and (b) this predictive utility is not moderated by LTI status, and is based in part on ostensibly dynamic risk factors. Implications for informing parole decision-making and risk management for LTIs are discussed.

Ethnicity, gender, and the Level of Service Inventory-Revised

Offender assessment and classification is becoming an increasingly important part of correctional supervision and intervention. Over the last several decades, several different methods and “generations” of offender classification have emerged. Of most value appear to be third-generation, actuarial, dynamic risk/need assessments. With any new correctional strategy, however, there is a need to investigate the use of these risk/need assessments on offender subgroups in order to inform issues, such as reliability and prevalence of criminogenic risk factors. The present study utilized data that were gathered using the Level of Service Inventory-Revised (LSI-R). Results and comparisons of these assessments were investigated and presented for Native American and non-Native American offenders as well as male and female offenders. Discussion of the results, implications, and recommendations for further research are presented.     

Exploring the validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised with Native American offenders

The use of actuarial risk/need assessment tools is an increasingly important part of the correctional landscape. Actuarial tools ideally will provide a valid, dynamic assessment of an offender's overall risk/need level, and will identify their most prevalent criminogenic needs. What results is typically a number or score that can be used to assign an offender to a risk level that is associated with an assumed likelihood of recidivism. Testing the predictive validity of actuarial risk/need assessment tools is of paramount concern, particularly when they are utilized with new (and under-researched) populations. The current study assessed the predictive validity of the Level of Service Inventory-Revised using a sample of Native American and White offenders in a northern midwestern state. Results showed the instrument to have modest predictive validity utilizing the entire sample of offenders, with varying results for subsequent subgroups.     

Predicting institutional misconduct using the Youth Level of Service/ Case Management Inventory

Offender assessment in corrections has advanced considerably over the last several decades. Currently, it is not uncommon to find correctional professionals using any number of objective standardized assessment instruments. While many of these instruments possess face validity as well as statistical predictive validity, more work is needed to test classification protocol on new populations, and in various correctional environments. The current paper investigates the predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) within an institutional setting. Specifically, the composite score rendered from the YLS/CMI is used to predict institutional misconduct. The YLS/ CMI was found to effectively differentiate between two levels of offender risk/ need, and was significantly related to outcome using several different statistical techniques.     

Predicting Institutional Adjustment and Recidivism with the Psychopathy Checklist Factor Scores: A Meta-Analysis

This study explored the validity of the PCL/PCL-R factor scores in predicting institutional adjustment and recidivism in forensic clients and prison inmates. Forty-two studies in which institutional adjustment, release outcome (recidivism), or both were assessed prospectively with the PCL/PCL-R yielded 50 effect size estimates between the PCL/PCL-R factor scores and measures of institutional adjustment/recidivism. A meta-analysis of these findings disclosed that Factor 2 (Antisocial/Unstable Lifestyle) correlated moderately well with institutional adjustment and recidivism, whereas Factor 1 (Affective/Interpersonal Traits) was less robustly associated with these outcomes. Direct comparisons of the mean effect sizes attained by Factors 1 and 2 revealed that Factor 2 was significantly more predictive of total outcomes, general recidivism, violent recidivism, and outcomes from the 12 most methodological sound studies than Factor 1. There was less differentiation between Factors 1 and 2 on measures of institutional adjustment.     

Youth Psychopathy and Criminal Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis of the Psychopathy Checklist Measures

Although narrative reviews have suggested that "youth psychopathy" is a strong predictor of future crime and violence, to date no quantitative summaries of this literature have been conducted. We meta-analyzed recidivism data for the Psychopathy Checklist measures across 21 non-overlapping samples of male and female juvenile offenders. After removing outliers, psychopathy was significantly associated with general and violent recidivism (r (w)'s of .24 and .25, respectively), but negligibly related to sexual recidivism in the few studies examining this low base rate outcome. Even after eliminating outliers, however, considerable heterogeneity was noted among the effects, with some of this variability being explained by the gender and ethnic composition of the samples. Effect sizes for the small number of female samples available for analysis were mostly small and nonsignificant, and psychopathy was a weaker predictor of violent recidivism among more ethnically heterogeneous samples. In relation to predicting both general and violent recidivism, psychopathy performed comparably to an instrument designed specifically to assess risk, the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (Hoge & Andrews, 2002).     

Predicting Juvenile Recidivism:Using the Indiana Department of Correction's Risk Assessment Instrument

The Indiana Department of Correction uses a Risk Assessment Instrument (RAI) to determine juvenile offenders' risk of recidivism and their placement in an IDOC facility. Although it is used to make important decisions, the RAI has not been well-validated. This article describes a study of convicted male juvenile offenders to determine how well the IDOC instrument, which is similar to that used in several states, predicted recidivism. We found that the RAI did not predict recidivism in our sample.     

Risk assessment: Identifying patterns of risk in young offenders with the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory

Effective case management of juvenile offenders requires differential treatment of juveniles that is based on clearly established patterns of need and risk ascertained by valid risk prediction tools. This study was the first attempt to determine whether profiles of offenders would provide valid and useful information beyond simple risk level (high, medium, and low). Using cluster analytic techniques, this study identified five risk profiles using juvenile court intake and probation samples (n = 301 and n = 372, respectively). The two samples were selected to represent youth entering the juvenile justice system and those already under the jurisdiction of the court. The results indicated that statistically dependable profiles could be identified which may provide more detailed information than risk level alone. Further, it appears that risk profile may provide a more useful method of categorizing offenders and their needs.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.