No miracles here: Trade policy,fiscal policy and economic growth

In this paper we consider whether the rate of growth following trade liberalisation differs significantly from growth in other developing countries. We find that it does not. Given this result we explore whether these growth effects are offset by changes in other policy variables, namely changes in fiscal policy. Governments increase welfare spending as a response to greater exposure to international trade. We find evidence that countries that liberalise their trade regimes increase their spending on welfare but not other forms of expenditure. However, once we control for the effects of fiscal policy, trade liberalisation still has no growth effects.     

Democratization and women’s representation in presidential cabinets: evidence from East and Southeast Asia

This article examines patterns of women’s cabinet representation across all presidential democracies in East and Southeast Asia since democratization. It demonstrates how the choice of female ministers differs across career backgrounds in presidential systems and further examines why young presidential systems in Asia are conducive to women’s access to ministerial power through professional career tracks. We argue that despite women’s successful performance in national legislative elections, women have been restricted to access the power resources necessary to target other political goals, such as cabinet positions, whereas democratic transition has provided broader avenues for women to emerge as professionals outside party politics. By analyzing original data on female ministers in East and Southeast Asia, the study finds that the share of women among professional ministers has increased over time, but women’s share among political ministers has not changed significantly. Additionally, the different qualifications of female politicians and professionals also make them eligible for appointment to different types of policy areas in terms of prestige and gender. Our analysis suggests that women’s cabinet representation has improved overall since democratic transition in Asia, but this improvement disguises contrasting outcomes in women’s cabinet status according to their career backgrounds.     

Distributive Effects of Regional Trade Agreements on the ‘Small Trading Partners’: Mercosur and the Case of Uruguay and Paraguay

It is disputed whether trade liberalisation processes are sufficient for reducing poverty and inequality. We explore how ‘gains from trade’ have been distributed in the two minor trade partners of Mercosur, Uruguay and Paraguay, by analysing the impact of trade liberalisation on poverty and inequality through two main transmission channels: prices and income. In the case of Uruguay, trade liberalisation favoured a reduction in poverty indicators but had an almost zero effect on income inequality. In the case of Paraguay, trade liberalisation had a markedly negative impact in terms of poverty yet income distribution improved. We conclude that in the case of Mercosur, the effect of trade on poverty and income inequality varies per country and per region. In particular, we conclude that trade integration policies cannot be regarded as ‘poverty-alleviating’ per se.     

Prospect theory and presidential elections: Two cases from Yugoslavia and Serbia

Why do presidents in semi-presidential regimes sometimes call early elections? Is the behavior of incumbent presidents different from the behavior of presidential contenders when the former do not need to run for office but face the loss of parliamentary majority in a semi-presidential system? Prospect theory claims that agents make risky choices when facing a loss. Consequently, if incumbent presidents face a loss of majority in the parliament, they will call for early election to try to shore up or salvage the majority. To provide empirical evidence supporting this claim, prospect theory has been applied to the two presidential elections in Yugoslavia and Serbia in which two incumbent presidents, Slobodan Milo?evi? (2000) and Boris Tadi? (2012), had lost early presidential elections. The expected contribution of the paper is to deepen our understanding of how semi-presidential regimes resolve the problem of temporal rigidity and offer novel empirical data in support of the application of prospect theory in political science.     

Trade Openness and Wage Inequality: Evidence for Malaysia

This article examines the impact of trade openness on wage inequality in Malaysia during the period 1984–1997. Malaysia has operated a very open trade regime since the 1960s and has pursued aggressive import substitution and export supporting policies. This development strategy is very different to that adopted in many other emerging economies where trade liberalisation has been associated with greater wage inequality. The aim of the present study is to examine whether Malaysia's more open approach to international trade has had a similar effect on wage inequality. The results suggest, in fact, that this is not the case.     

Exploring the invocation of emotion in presidential speeches

Scholars have long explored why presidential rhetoric is important and how it matters for public leadership and policy-making. However, relatively few works have considered the role that emotion plays in leadership communication and no research has conducted a thorough examination of the various types of emotions invoked in presidential rhetoric, their frequency, or how they have shaped presidential discourse over time. In this study, presidential speeches across 13 administrations (1933–2011) are examined to provide a first assessment of the extent to which US presidents have invoked fear, anger, and hope across policy domains and key types of speeches.     

Light,dark and the powers that be: a hydroelectric project in Butembo

Despite its major importance in international trade, the city of Butembo in the North Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo is deprived of such basic urban infrastructure as electricity. Private and public actors have attempted to bring power to the city, but their efforts have remained fruitless. Analysis of these failed projects to electrify the city offers a glimpse of local power relations. Why, rather than cooperating, do various local power holders counteract each other? Will gaining credit for bringing electric power to the city in turn yield political power over its future? With a special focus on a hydroelectric dam that was built but never functioned, this article sheds light on the way in which the citizens of Butembo relate to different bodies of authority. I argue that the hydroelectric dam gradually became a tool in a larger political strategy.     

Farewell to the Caucasus: Regional ethnic clan politics and the growing instability of the ruling elite after the 2012 presidential elections in Russia

One of the most lingering questions about Russian politics that dominates public discourse and media coverage is the future of political regime after the 2012 presidential elections. The answer to this question is inextricably linked to the extent of differences between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, how long their “tandemocracy” will last and what can bring about regime change as scarce critics of the Kremlin, from ultra-liberals to communists, have been haphazardly co-opted into the power system, leaving no political ambitions that they would not, in principle, be ready to abandon in return for proper compensation.In sharp contrast to the views of many regional experts and commentators, the present-day Russian Federation is the world's most anti-Soviet state. It is based upon a very different set of values: private ownership, dire individualism, the cult of money, a clan-based political system, and pervasive corruption at all levels of government. The North Caucasus ethnocratic elites, however, do not have access to abundant resources for sale, and are forced to look around for alternative sustenance, as rigid centralism and unification limit their rent-seeking capabilities. Alexander Khloponin, the incumbent presidential envoy in charge of the North Caucasus Federal District, seems to continue the policy of buying the loyalty of regional archaic clan-based elites that aggravates rather than improves the situation.The paper addresses this puzzle: why, against rigorous rhetoric and demonstration of tight grip over the region, neither Putin nor Medvedev has real power to bring change to the North Caucasus? In an attempt to solve this puzzle, the paper examines the triadic relationship among central political elite, who benefited from the massive privatisation of lucrative segments of Soviet industry in the early 1990s, regional clan-based ethnocracy, and non-systemic religious opposition. Drawing on the works of Russian scholars and experts in Russian politics, the paper explores the hypothesis that on-going instability in the North Caucasus can no longer be explained by a well-known set of theories of ethnic violence, because it is carefully negotiated by regional and central political elite, who do not see the North Caucasus as an indispensable part of the Russian Federation and whose clan-based rent-seeking agendas have gradually driven Russian statehood into a complete dead-end. Instead of facing the real challenges that are addressed in this paper, it is only able to make a public show of action on the eve of crucial political campaigns: the 2012 presidential elections and the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. The paper concludes that the deep freeze in the Russian political system has exhausted its debatable potential for change through the existing tandem model of government with its obscure division of roles between two leaders. What we actually see is an imitation of political reform and the resulting degradation of the entire system of governance. Over the past century, Russian polity has never been as weak as today, because the only legitimate source of power in Russia is corruption.     

Trade Liberalisation and Export Performance in Selected Developing Countries

This article examines the impact of trade liberalisation on export growth for a sample of 22 developing economies. The research applies dynamic panel data models based on fixed-effects and generalised methods of moments (GMM) estimators. In addition, heterogeneous panels for the complete sample, as well as for different regions of the world, are estimated using a time-series/cross-section technique. The main findings are that trade liberalisation is a significant determinant of export performance, but its effect varies across continents. Export duties have a small detrimental effect on export growth, while relative price changes and world income growth have the expected signs.     

Openness and Growth: Re-Examining Foreign Direct Investment,Trade and Output Linkages in Latin America

The openness–growth connection is still an open question in the empirical literature. Although some studies have found that openness has a positive impact on economic performance, others have seriously questioned the significance of this result. The main point that we try to emphasise in this paper is that openness involves more than just trade liberalisation. The increasing importance of international capital flows and especially foreign direct investment (FDI) seems to be another relevant component of outward oriented policies. Therefore, by using quarterly data from the late seventies to 2000, we investigate the effects of liberalisation in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina by taking into account trade and FDI growth links. The results suggest that it is important to consider both exports and FDI to ascertain the benefits associated to the outward oriented strategies followed by these countries.     

The Role of International Clientelism in the National Factionalism of Palestine

In this article I investigate the role of the international community's policy in the national factionalism in Palestine. I attempt to illuminate how international policy has contributed to the sustaining of internecine Palestinian violence as Fatah, which lost the elections in 2005 and 2006, has been motivated not to hand over power. In the process of selecting allies in the fight against Islamist terrorism, the epitomic undemocratic feature of Arab political culture, clientelism, has been promoted over democracy. Hamas seizing power in Gaza in 2007 probably resulted from the need to tame unruly militant groups which were sponsored by leaders of the Palestinian Fatah party, which again were supported by Western powers. To understand the national splitting in Palestine there is a need to analyse the interconnection between warlords, local clientelism and international clientelism.     

Divergent politico-legal responses to past presidential corruption in Zambia and Kenya: catching the ‘big fish’, or letting him off the hook?

The criticisms of globalisation and international institutions often confuse the current state of multilateralism and its asymmetrical organisation; the economic theories it uses (the ‘Washington consensus’); and the reforms it promotes, such as liberalisation. Economic stagnation, however, has many causes other than the multilateral organisations’ reforms, which may have little impact on growth. These reforms may be efficient, irrelevant or powerless vis-à-vis the other determinants of growth. The paper discusses the several determinants of growth other than policy reforms, such as countries' structural and institutional characteristics, and analyses the consequences of reforms, in particular trade liberalisation. These consequences constitute a challenge to the credibility of reforms, but may also lead to deeper thinking about the determinants of economic growth and further developmental reforms.     

Presidential popularity in a context of economic crisis and political change: The case of Mexico

The study shows how presidential approval ratings in Mexico during an era of crisis have been shaped by citizen reactions to environmental conditions but also by the effects of the transition toward a more competitive electoral system. Regime transitions toward greater democracy in Latin America and elsewhere may hold important implications for the formation of public opinion and mass political behavior. Charles L. Davis is associate professor of political science at the University of Kentucky. His interests include comparative politics, political psychology, and Latin America. Ronald E. Langley has been affiliated with the department of political science at the University of Kentucky. His recent research interests are public opinion and presidential politics.     

Volatility in Electoral Support for United Russia: Cross-Regional Variations in Putin’s Electoral Authoritarian Regime

Abstract

Grounded in the main theoretical approaches to the study of electoral volatility, this article examines cross-regional variations in the levels of volatility for United Russia (UR) in Duma elections over the period 2003–2016, which are juxtaposed with the level of volatility for the Kremlin’s candidates in presidential elections. The main finding is that ‘regime type’ or, more precisely, ‘authoritarianism’ is the key explanatory variable. Stronger authoritarian rulers are able to control regional elites and ensure the best results for UR by exerting administrative pressure on voters. This reduces the level of volatility in support for UR. At the same time, economic and institutional explanations have a partial significance. Here, Duma elections differ from presidential elections, which demonstrate a much lower degree of volatility; in addition, economic factors appear insignificant.     

Private administration of a public function: The news election service

The United States government has no elections office and does not attempt to administer congressional and presidential elections. The responsibility for the administration of elections and certification of winners in the United States national elections rests with the states. The states divide election administration responsibilities between state and local election officials, whose objective is an efficiently administered honest election, with the ballots correctly tabulated. The formal structure of election administration in the United States is not capable of providing tirely results of the presidential and congressional election. Similar structural difficulties in other policy areas often result in ad hoc operating agreements or informal cooperation among agencies at different levels of the federal system. In the case of election administration, however, the public officials have abdicated responsibility for election night aqgregation of the national Vote totals to a private organization, News Election Service, which is owned by five major news organizations. This private organization performs without a contract, without public compensation, and without supervision by public officials. It makes decisions concerning its duties according to its own criteria. The questions of responsibility and accountability have not arisen in part because of the private organization's performance record and in part because the responsibility was assumed gradually over a lengthy period without ever being evaluated as an item on the public agenda.     

Extricating the state: The move to competitive capture in post-communist Bulgaria

This article uses the Bulgarian case to analyse movement from a situation of what appeared to be a ‘Partial-Reform Equilibrium’ to an ‘Equilibrium of Competitive Capture’. In such a process, elections are important forces for change, but not because they bring reformist parties to power or lead to completed economic liberalisation. Instead, especially in the first several electoral cycles in a new democracy, they can bring to power new leaders who are not beholden to existing captors, but rather to other clients that would like to capture the state for their own interests. Over time, the country experiences a parade of captors, eventually leading to a system where no single group owns the state, but where it is still not insulated. Instead, several competing groups fight with each other to raid it for their own benefits.     

Smallholder Livelihood Adaptation in the Context of Neoliberal Policy Reforms: A Case of Maize Farmers in Southern Veracruz,Mexico

Governments around the world have embraced trade liberalisation as a means of enhancing efficiency to realise economic growth and alleviate poverty. Likewise, the Mexican government implemented neoliberal policy reforms, the NAFTA in particular, to stimulate sustainable development. Using the Mexican maize sector as illustration, this article describes the adaptation process of smallholders to market changes shaped by these reforms. Going beyond the aggregated level, we have investigated smallholders' livelihood strategies. Contrary to what economic models estimated, our data suggests that farmers intensified the cultivation of maize rather than switch to sectors in which Mexico has a comparative advantage.     

Liberal internationalism meets third worldism: the politics of international election observation in the DRC’s post-war elections

In this article, we draw on the contradictions in, and the geopolitics of, international election observation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s 2006 and 2011 elections to identify and analyse the emergence of a neo-third world behaviour among African states intended to counter the excesses of Western liberal democracy promotion on the continent. We argue that the decision by African states to quickly endorse the 2011 elections and close ranks around Joseph Kabila’s government, amidst mounting international criticisms of the electoral process, should be understood in the context of a new form of third worldism that is emerging in the global South in response to the unrestrained exercise of US power.     

Trade Liberalisation,the Peso,and Mexico's Commodity Trade Flows with the United States

We assess the effects of real peso devaluations, as well as the effects of GATT and NAFTA, on Mexico's in-payments and out-payments with the United States for 102 industries. We find that relatively few trade flows are sensitive to changes in the real exchange rate, probably due to production-sharing and intra-industry trade, but devaluations affect Mexican imports more than exports. Trade liberalisation has had a larger impact, particularly on imports of intermediate goods and exports of certain manufactures. Many affected export industries are ones that have previously been shown to have economies of scale.