Established and emergent political subjectivities in circular human geographies: transnational Arab activists

In this paper, we argue that Arab transnational citizenship mobilization can be configured through ‘geographies of circularity’ (e.g. bridging multiple locales, encircling the state, transversally stirring political subjectivities, and in the full-circle return of identity). Circularity helps ground and highlight the character and significance of transnational political and social activism, and the transfer of communications, skills, behaviors, organizational forms, tools, and projects (political technologies’) for citizenship. Based on the networks initiated by the Arab revolts, we argue that Arab émigrés, workers, and students – framed here as Arab transnationals – traverse and embody these geographies of circularity and leverage connectivity to mobilize citizenship claims and remit/ bridge/diffuse/export/import important progressive ideas and values locally in the western world and into the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.     

Citizenship and Surveys: Group Conflict and Nationality-of-Interviewer Effects in Arab Public Opinion Data

Political Behavior - More research than ever before uses public opinion data to investigate society and politics in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Ethnic identities are widely theorized...     

You Say You Want a Revolution: the Arab Spring,Norm Diffusion,and the Human Rights Regime

We discuss how the Arab Spring is a reflection of the resiliency of the human rights regime. In order to accomplish this, we explore the extent to which the Arab Spring represents norm diffusion among Middle East and North Africa (MENA) states. Specifically, we examine the cases of Tunisia, Egypt, and Bahrain and consider how economic and demographic changes created space for human rights discourse in these countries. We find that, in the case of MENA states, the Arab Spring represents significant pressure from below. Access to new forms of social media allowed civil society to organize, publicize, and protest relatively efficiently. Social media expanded the potential role of individuals and created newly empowered latent human rights activists who emerged as leaders of the norm diffusion process. The resulting diffusion of human rights norms in the Arab region represents one of the most significant expansions of the human rights regime since the regime’s inception.     

Social identity and coethnic voting in the Middle East: Experimental evidence from Qatar

What explains widespread coethnic voting in the Middle East? The prevailing understanding revolves around clientelism: the view that MENA citizens support coethnic parties and candidates in order to most easily or effectively extract resources from the patrimonial state. Previous research has thus neglected non-economic explanations of ethnic-based preferences and outcomes in MENA elections, including social biases long identified in other settings. This study presents findings from a conjoint survey experiment in Qatar, where symbolic elections lack distributional implications. Consistent with expectations derived from social identity theory, results reveal strong favoritism of cosectarian candidates, whereas objective candidate qualifications do not affect voter preferences. Bias is especially strong in a policy domain – promoting religious values – that prompts respondents to consider the candidate’s ethnic identity. Findings offer clear evidence that ethnic-based voting in Qatar and likely elsewhere is not merely epiphenomenal but can reflect actual preferences for members of social in-groups.     

A Transition without Players: The Role of Political Parties in the Arab Revolutions

Academic scholarship regarding the role of political parties in the Arab world remains largely underdeveloped in comparison to analyses focusing on the role of political Islam or on authoritarian resilience. Although both of these fields of research contain useful paradigms for explaining aspects of the region’s political development, this overemphasis means that there is a lack of meaningful analysis of political participation. This article seeks to analyze the role of political parties in the light of regional transition processes since the Arab uprisings, claiming that the region’s political history and sociocultural makeup can help in explaining that much of the popular mobilization in the Arab world following the Arab revolutions took place outside of institutionalized politics. First, the article reviews and analyzes relevant theories of political parties. Second, the article presents a comparative analysis of existing theories and case studies of political parties being part of transition processes in Latin America and Eastern Europe. Taking this as starting point, the article, by looking at the Egyptian and Tunisian cases, demonstrates the limited role of political parties in connection with the regional transitory processes, with the ambition of presenting some relevant analytical tools as well as useful hints for further analyses of political transformation processes in the Middle East.     

China–Japan interaction in the Middle East: a battleground of Japan's remilitarization

As most studies on Middle East–East Asian relations focus on the interregional dimension, the manner in which relations between East Asian powers influence, and are influenced by, their policies in the Middle East are largely overlooked. Attempting to add another layer to the study of Sino-Japanese relations, this article explores whether Sino-Japanese rivalry extends to the Middle East. This undertaking requires a conceptual distinction between measures related to Sino-Japanese competition in the Middle East and measures which are related to their rivalry. Building on a minimal definition of interstate rivalry, the article argues that neither the effort to secure energy supply nor their economic or political competition there is shaped by their rivalry. The only field that can be associated with that rivalry is Japan's quasi-military activity in the Middle East, which may enhance its security policy's revision. That, in turn, causes much concern and criticism in Beijing, thus assigning the region a certain role in their relations.     

Rivalry in the Middle East? Japan’s CEAPAD initiative and China’s rise

Abstract

Ever since the so-called rise of China has started, Sino-Japanese relations have been increasingly described as a rivalry between both states. For the most part, this assumed rivalry has been analyzed on the global level or within the boundaries of the East Asian region, while the consequences of this rivalry for other world regions, such as the Middle East, have been largely neglected in the literature. In order to fill this gap, this article investigates how China’s growing presence in the Middle East, and in particular regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, influences Japan’s own foreign policy in this troubled region. It utilizes a modified concept of the strategic rivalry approach, called ‘asymmetric rivalry’, which challenges the widespread notion that rivalry needs to be mutually perceived by both sides and thus analyzes the assumed Sino-Japanese rivalry in the Middle East from a Japanese perspective. By focusing on the case of Japan’s CEAPAD initiative, which aims at coordinating East Asian countries’ developmental assistance towards the Palestinian Authority while deliberately excluding China, the present article shows that the perception of Japan’s foreign policy elite of China as a rival decisively influences how Japan’s foreign policy is shaped in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.     

China,the United States,and order transition in East Asia: An economy-security Nexus approach

A dualistic-order thesis has been emerged as a widely-used concept to describe East Asia’s regional dynamics. According to the thesis, the economic and security spheres of the region have become divorced from one other, whereby China and the United States dominate the economic and security realms, respectively. This paper demonstrates the deficiencies of this thesis, based on a comprehensive assessment of the economic and security developments in the region, as well as the strategic choices of small and middle regional powers. In order to form a more accurate and systematic understanding of regional prosperity and stability, this paper develops an economy-security nexus approach by integrating the interactions of regional actors in both the economic and security realms into a unified framework. From this perspective, East Asian regional order is sustained by a delicate coupling of regional economic and security configurations: ‘hot economics’ is accompanied with cooperative security interactions. Although China and the United States are not the dominant actors in either field, their relatively benign interactions in both realms collectively play a significant role by shaping the strategic environment for regional actors, allowing them to enjoy a large degree of strategic flexibility and increase their security and prosperity.     

The Political Economy of the Sino-Middle Eastern Relations

This paper attempts to understand the Sino-Mideast relations in terms of energy cooperation and the subsequent cooperation in the areas of trade and arms sales. It also examines the political economy of China’s energy policy toward the Middle East. The paper argues that the objective of China’s engagement in the Middle East is energy security rather than undermining the United States’ interests in the region. Contrary to realist assumptions, China is utilizing the existing Western institutions to achieve its goals in the region, a step highly welcomed and encouraged by Middle Eastern states. The paper attempts to develop a tridimensional and triangular approach to the political economy of the region in relation to the rapid pace of China’s involvement in the Middle East. Such involvement is generating substantial intellectual interests and anxiety among major players in the region in terms of its nature, goals and mechanisms. In so doing, China maintains a balance in its relations with protagonists in the region and skillfully navigates its national interest in the region.     

The Saudi–Turkish antagonism

The long-standing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Turkey has given way to open hostility and a power struggle extending across the Middle East and the Horn of Africa. The antagonism is affecting Ankara and Riyadh’s ties with actors from outside the region and complicating the policies of these actors in the Middle East.     

Security architecture in Asia: the interplay of regional and global levels

I argue that there is a distinct and longstanding regional structure in East Asia that is of at least equal importance to the global level in shaping the region's security dynamics. Without considering this regional level neither ‘unipolar’ nor ‘multipolar’ designations can explain East Asian international security. To make this case, I deploy regional security complex theory both to characterize and explain developments in East Asia since the end of the Cold War. The shift from bipolarity to unipolarity is well understood in thinking about how the ending of the Cold War impacted on East Asia. Less written about in Western security literature are the parallel developments at the regional level. Prominent among these are the relative empowerment of China in relation to its neighbours, and the effect of this, as well as of the growth of regional institutions, and the attachment of security significance to East Asian economic developments, in merging the security dynamics of Northeast and Southeast Asia. How China relates to its East Asian region, and how the US and China relate to each other, are deeply intertwined issues which centrally affect not only the future of East Asian, but also global, security. With the notable exception of some crisis between China and Taiwan, this whole pattern looks mainly dependent on internal developments within China and the US. Also significant is whether the basic dynamic of interstate relations in East Asia is more defined by the Westphalian principle of balancing, or by the bandwagoning imperative more characteristic of suzerain-vassal relationships. The main probability is for more of the same, with East Asian security staying within a fairly narrow band between mild conflict formation and a rather odd and weak sort of security regime in which an outside power, the US, plays the key role.     

A 'participatory revolution' among the German 'unification generation'?

Abstract. This paper presents new data on the differential impact of the East German 'participatory revolution' on attitudes of youth in both Eastern and Western regions of unified Germany. A 1991 Youth Survey indicates that the overall 1991 level of approval for most noninstitutional tactics was roughly similar to the 1980 levels reported in the Political Action Studies. The notable exception was support for political demonstrations which was considerably higher, presumably in response to the participatory mobilization in the East. There was a strong regional effect with demonstrations receiving higher ratings in the East (the former German Democratic Republic) than in the West for all age groups. This apparent 'tactic-specific' effect suggests the 'participatory revolution' is characterized by a 'lead' in the more dramatic tactics and a 'lag' in the more subtle techniques of democratic participation. Western males showed hints of a different age-related pattern than did males in the East, or females in both regions - a finding that may indicate a combination of gender and regional effects. In both regions approval for demonstrations was associated with left-of-center political party preference and with identification with 'new social movements'.     

Chinese Geopolitics: Space Program Cooperation among China,Brazil, and Russia

With the Obama Administration’s foreign policy pivot to Asia, the Chinese government is concerned about the possibility of new challenges in their foreign policy sphere of influence. Since the 1990s, many political and military analysts have explored the eventual rivalry between these two states. However, events in the Middle East preoccupy U.S. attention, leaving China moderately free in Southeast Asia, though it is uncertain for how long this will persist and if the United States will reallocate its attention to contain China. In this case, the Chinese government will need to develop countermeasures to sustain its geopolitical interests. There are two focuses in this analysis: (1) the Chinese geopolitical naval situation, exploring the problems in the geosphere surrounding China and the eventual competition with other regional powers and the United States in East Asia; and (2) the potential for space program cooperation with Russia and Brazil, which, in turn, dramatically changes the balance of power in outer space through positive aspects of Russian technical capabilities and strategic Brazilian geographic (Alcântara launch site).     

Incivility: The Politics of 'People on the Margins' in Jamaica

This paper employs and scrutinizes Asef Bayat's theory of [the] 'quiet encroachment' of the 'informal people' in the Middle East to reflect on civility and governance in Jamaica. The central argument is that while the practices of the economically dispossessed represent rational ways to survive hardships and improve their lives, the alliance of members of Jamaica's informal sphere with 'community dons' flies in the face of civility and civic engagement, engendering destructive, criminal behaviour, which undermines the state's capacity to regulate the space and uphold the rule of law. The essay recognises the validity of the episodic mobilization of 'people on the margins' in Jamaica as a useful, autonomous aspect of civil society, without romanticising it or abstracting it from its counterpoint to the state. It however maintains that such a collectivity, operating vicariously, exerts a burden on social stability and cohesion with dire consequences for democratic governance.     

Misplaced Applications of Economic Theory to the Middle East

Tyler Cowen in this issue proposes an application of publicchoice and game theory as a means of understanding the MiddleEast conflict and viewing the ``Road Map for Middle EastPeace''. Cowen's approach is not based on appreciation of the``hidden agendas and rules of the game'' that are present inthe Middle East. Economic theory may indeed usefullycontribute to understanding aspects of the Middle East war,but through different avenues and in different directions fromthose suggested by Cowen. In this paper I suggest a viewconsistent with the institutional characteristics of theconflict and the objectives of the participants.     

Domestic migrants' responsiveness to electoral mobilization under authoritarianism: Evidence from China's grassroots elections

This study examines citizens' responsiveness to electoral mobilization under authoritarianism by studying the turnout of domestic migrants in China's grassroots elections. While a large literature on authoritarian elections has focused on coercion and material benefits as tactics dictators often use to promote turnout, we argue that social pressure from the community and its leaders plays a crucial role in mobilizing authoritarian constituents. Employing data from the China Labor Dynamics Survey (2012), we show that migrants who share traits with local residents, such as dialect, are more likely to be mobilized to vote, because they are more responsive to local cadres' mobilization efforts and feel more connected to the community. Conversely, we find no support for an explanation rooted in channels of communication. We confirm the findings using an instrumental variable approach. Our findings imply that street-level mobilization for authoritarian elections takes advantage of various social factors in more subtle and embedded ways than is typically assumed.     

Turkey’s diminishing policy options in Syria

The increase in the Islamic State's power vis-a-vis the moderate Syrian opposition has reduced Turkey’s ability to shape the course of the Syrian conflict in line with its long-term goals of uprooting the Assad regime and expanding its influence in the Middle East. ISIS's rise has also degraded Turkey's domestic security. Ankara currently appears caught between its inability to realise its regional objectives with respect to Syria and its refusal to moderate them, but may soon find political compromise unavoidable.     

The US withdrawal from Syria

US President Donald Trump's announcement that US troops in northeast Syria would soon be withdrawn has severely disrupted Washington's Middle East policy. The US and its European partners have failed to achieve any of their goals in Syria. Several Arab states are attempting a rapprochement with the Assad regime. Russia has emerged as a regional mediator, and Iran is in a strong position to shape Syria's future.     

FOOD SECURITY AND AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT POLICIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Despite petrodollars, ideological and economic divisions in the Middle East make for difficult agricultural development. High food deficits plague the area and projections are for Increased consumptlon and food shortfalls. However, the area has seen some dramatic production and development growth and external food aid t ofurther this development seems worthwhile for the Middle East and the West.     

The meanings,origins and implications of 'the Howard Doctrine'

This article examines the background to the so-called 'Howard Doctrine' of 1999 in response to the problems that Australian diplomacy and defence policy encountered during the East Timor crisis. The article begins by examining the critical reaction both in Australia and abroad to the doctrine which appeared to imply Australia's increased reliance on the 'special relationship' with the US and its role as a 'deputy' of its ANZUS partner in the East Asia region. The article then demonstrates the historical origins of the doctrine's thinking in Australia's reliance since the post-war period on a system of serial bilateralism and special relationships with first the UK, the US and then Indonesia. However, the article also points out the essential vulnerabilities inherent in this type of serial bilateralism and its relative inability to respond effectively to the East Timor crisis. Finally, the article considers the systemic risk in Australian policy as manifested in the doctrine, and the future viability of serial bilateralism in dealing with Australia's regional diplomatic and security agenda.