The Potential of Islamist Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper is about the potential of terrorism in African Islamic movements. In order to lessen ambiguities related to the plethora of definitions given to the Islamist phenomenon, the various definitions related to the phenomenon of Islamism are examined as introductory information indispensable to the understanding of the topic. While it describes the encounter of sub-Saharan Africa with Islam, it also covers a number of movements in different countries in the African continent: Nigeria, Tanzania, Senegal, Kenya, South Africa, Somalia, Ethiopia, Niger, Mali, Chad, and Sudan. In all of these countries, the emergence of Islamic movements, their socio-political status, their present position in relation to the ongoing debate on their perceived radicalization or their supposed threat of violence or terrorism are comparatively analyzed.     

Aid and Resource Mobilisation in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Role of Reverse Flows

This article seeks to ascertain the role of ‘reverse flows’ in explaining the observed limited impact of aid on resource mobilisation in Sub-Saharan Africa. It departs from the previous empirical literature on aid and resource mobilisation by abandoning the pervasive, but untenable, assumption that aid either displaces domestic saving (increases consumption) or increases investment. Some aid is, in fact, used to finance reverse flows (debt servicing, capital flight, and reserve accumulation). The evidence suggests that, for the period covering 1980 to 2006, nearly 50 per cent of aid to Sub-Saharan African countries was used to finance reverse flows.     

The Historical Origins of Tanzania's Ruling Class

This article integrates the dynamics within authoritarian elites into analysis of democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa. This variable has been excluded from nearly all analysis on the subject. Based on a comparison of three cases, this article concludes that only in cases where popular mobilization was accompanied by deep divisions within the ruling coalition did democratization ensue. The division of the authoritarian coalition in Benin and South Africa created a window of opportunity which enabled pro-democracy forces to push through democratic reforms. Furthermore, only when a majority of the authoritarian elite in South Africa favoured negotiations with the African National Congress and other anti-apartheid political organizations did the transition towards democracy in South Africa make any progress. In contrast, in the Togolese case, a united ruling coalition precluded any reform that would have challenged its political hegemony.     

The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on Teachers in Sub-Saharan Africa

This is the first of two articles that consider the impact of the AIDS epidemic on the education sector in sub-Saharan Africa. Teachers are regularly singled out as being particularly vulnerable to HIV infection and as such they are considered to be a ' high-risk group'. However, this study presents recent evidence from high HIV prevalence countries in eastern, central and southern Africa that suggests that this is not the case. Teacher mortality rates are considerably lower than those for the adult population as a whole. Furthermore, while demographic projections show AIDS-related mortality for teachers increasing very sharply during the next 5-10 years, teacher mortality rates are in fact declining in a number of high prevalence countries mainly as a result of behaviour change and the increasing availability of anti-retroviral drugs. The second article critically reviews the available evidence on the impact of the epidemic on the education of orphans and other directly affected children.     

Managerial attitudes of public sector managers in Sub-Saharan Africa

Africa, and more specifically Sub-Saharan Africa, is faced with severe economic problems. The public sector, both the political and the managerial, is under severe attack to change its approach to the organization and management of society and its administrative System.

There is today, external, and to some extent internal, pressure to downsize the administrative system, to privatize, and to generally give up the prominent role played by the administrative system in the production and distribution of the general welfare.

This study attempts to assess the attitudes of public sector managers in Sub-Saharan Africa to what may be called universal managerial concerns such as problem-solving, leadership, job challenge, change, and organizational culture. It also assesses the level of satisfaction with career and particular positions of Sub- Saharan African mangers. In assessing attitudes and levels of satisfaction, we compare managers' attitudes with managers from other third world countries. The study concludes with the findings that routineness of work generates negative attitudes while bureaucratization and experience initiate positive attitudes towards universal managerial concerns.     

Economic Fluctuations and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Importance of Import Instability

The traditional thesis that export instability (XI) is deleterious to economic growth in developing economies has received mixed empirical results. For African countries, recent research suggests that the effect of XI is weak, but that capital (investment) instability (KI) adversely influences economic growth. The current study argues that in many of these nations, imports are likely to be critical to the growth process, while exports represent only one of the various sources of investment resources. Hence, import instability (MI) may pose a more serious problem than XI in hindering economic growth. Employing 1968-1986 World Bank data for 33 sub-Saharan African countries, XI, KI and MI variables are calculated for each country as the standard errors around the respective 'best-fitted' trends over the sample period. These instability measures and additional World Bank data are then used to estimate an augmented production function that controls for the effects of labour, capital, and exports. The study finds that although KI is still a relevant argument of the production function, MI appears to be even more important, while XI is extraneous.     

The Politics of Institutional Choice Across Sub-Saharan Africa: Presidential Term Limits

During the transitions to multipartyism that began in the late 1980s, presidential term limits were adopted into the constitutions of a majority of sub-Saharan African states. Yet, a sizable minority of African governments resisted implementing such restrictions on executive power. How can this variation be explained? This article proposes an expanded strategic choice approach that posits that the degree of electoral uncertainty affects institutional choice in cases of controlled, unilateral constitutional revisions (which were common across Africa) just as much as it shapes institutional choice in situations of cooperative constitution-making through bargaining and pact-making. Based on this logic, I argue that term limits were adopted as an electoral insurance mechanism in all cases where constitutional drafters perceive the degree of future electoral uncertainty to be high, regardless of whether the constitutional review process is cooperative or controlled. Alternatively, term limits are eschewed in cases where one unified party fully controls the constitutional review process and also perceives that they will win elections into the foreseeable future. The argument is tested through a statistical analysis of the determinants of term limit choice across all relevant sub-Saharan cases.     

Determinants of Intraregional Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa 1980-2000

Abstract

Despite great accomplishments in the migration literature, the determinants of South-South migration remain poorly understood. In an attempt to fill this gap, this paper formulates and tests an empirical model for intraregional migration in sub-Saharan Africa within an extended human capital framework, taking into account spatial interaction. Using bilateral panel data between 1980 and 2000, we find that intraregional migration on the subcontinent is predominantly driven by economic opportunities and sociopolitics in the host country, facilitated by geographical proximity. The role played by network effects and environmental conditions is also apparent. Finally, origin and destination spatial dependence should definitely not be ignored.     

Failed States and the Spread of Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa

Plagued by systematic state failure, sub-Saharan Africa's failed states have helped facilitate internationally sponsored terrorist networks and operations. However, until recently, this type of activity was primarily relegated to North Africa and the Horn. But that has begun to change. Now, what was once a seemingly benign terrorist presence in sub-Saharan Africa is starting to transform into a movement, with states such as Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) now lending arms, financial support, and radical militants to the extremist jihadist movement of internationally sponsored terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda. Further, with the recent bombings in Kenya and Somalia, and the failed bombing attempt on a U.S. airliner by a Nigerian national, it is becoming increasingly evident that internationally sponsored terrorist networks have found a permanent home in sub-Saharan Africa and within the hearts and minds of its people, which poses significant challenges for the international community, given the region's patchwork of failed states, where terrorists can easily hide and thrive. Consequently, this study discusses how the conditions of state failure have fostered support for internationally sponsored terrorism in sub-Saharan Africa. Terrorist groups are now actively recruiting more militants from within the region and popular support for extremist acts is on the rise in sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, the article argues sub-Saharan Africa will soon become the site for the next generation of terrorists, and the next wave of terrorist activity.     

The Effectiveness of Inputs in Primary Education: Insights from Recent Student Surveys for Sub-Saharan Africa

With SACMEQ and PASEC there are now two large data bases available on student achievement, socio-economic background and school and teacher characteristics in both anglophone and francophone sub-Saharan Africa. A joint analysis of PASEC and SACMEQ in a common education production function framework allows us to estimate the impact of educational inputs on student achievement in 21 sub-Saharan African countries and to compare our results with those of earlier empirical studies for education systems in Africa and other world regions. In our analysis we focus on school equipment, teacher quality and class organisation. The issue of teacher and student incentives cannot be adequately addressed with the given data. Our results are based on a traditional retrospective analysis of student achievement in PASEC and SACMEQ countries. In contrast to the ‘nothing works’ result from most industrialized countries' studies we find robust positive correlations of achievement test scores and the possession of textbooks and negative correlations with teaching in shifts. The most striking result is the weak or even absent correlation of achievement test scores and teacher education and professional training. However, some differences between francophone and anglophone education systems can be observed in this context if differences in the sampling methodology are duly taken into account.     

Environmental dimensions of managing public budgets and public enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study examines the nature of the environment in which public budgets and public enterprises are managed in developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. It develops a model of the environmental dimensions in the general environment and dimensional components in the task environment of public budgeting and public enterprise management including the economic, political, socio-cultural, and technological dimension which determine public budget and public enterprise management in developing countries like those in Sub-Saharan Africa. The implications of those environmental dimensions and their components are evaluated for budgetary processes and budgetary outcomes in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa - Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Ethiopia. The impact of economic dimensions in inducing repetitive budgeting in the budgetary processes of developing countries was highlighted. The results of the analysis of expenditure patterns in these countries tend to support the greater strength of the economic functional dimension in influencing budgetary outcomes. The implications of the environmental dimensions of the model for the management of public enterprises was also investigated. Numerous dimensional components of the major dimensions of the model developed in the study were found to have had an impact on the development of the public enterprise sector in developing countries like those in Sub- Saharan Africa. Moreover, the performance of public enterprises was strongly linked to the dimensions and components of the model. The interactive effects of public enterprise management on public budgeting in developing countries is also addressed as a consequence of the environmental model. Reform efforts must contend with altering the environmental state depicted in the model or accommodating to it.     

Land reform in the shadow of the state: The implementation of new land laws in Sub-Saharan Africa

The importance of effective implementation of new land laws and the difficulties associated with it are alluded to in almost every recent piece of writing on African land reform. However, the process of implementation has remained neglected and little theorised. Drawing on a body of political science and policy studies literature which considers implementation and the difficulties to which it gives rise, this paper will attempt to advance a critical approach to the role of law in altering land relations in Africa. It will use the experiences of Tanzania, Uganda and South Africa to illustrate that, while some barriers to implementation are easily identified, and therefore receive relatively more attention, there are other important factors which might hamper attempts to change land relations. It is usual to understand land reform as direct state intervention in property relations. However, this paper will argue that the capacity of the state in Africa to carry out land reform is severely limited. The paper therefore attempts to identify an altogether different set of actors in the reform process. Its starting point will be the observation that land reform may take place less as a result of direct state action and more as a consequence of the actions of private individuals within the state.     

Poverty among the elderly in Sub-Saharan Africa and the role of social pensions

Drawing on household survey information, this study delineates the poverty profile of the elderly in 15 low-income sub-Saharan African countries which include countries with a high and low prevalence of the HIV-AIDS pandemic. The study shows that the poverty situation of the elderly living with children and the elderly-headed households is much worse than the average in many countries. The impact of providing a social pension to the elderly on group-specific and national poverty head-count ratios and poverty gap ratios, and its fiscal implications, are analysed. Simulating various plausible eligibility criteria and benefit levels, the study concludes that while the case for an universal (untargeted) social pension is weak, substantial welfare gains can be obtained at a low cost with a social pension targeted to the poor among the elderly.     

The Impact of Innovation Platform Diversity in Agricultural Network Formation and Technology Adoption: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

This study investigates the diversity in impact of innovation platforms (IPs) on agricultural networks and technology adoption among 1200 households in nine sub-Saharan Africa countries. We explore the extent to which the 32 IPs implemented adopted the Integrated Agricultural Research for Development Approach (IAR4D). We find that IPs implemented according to the IAR4Dness principles are better at promoting networks of households with other farmers within villages. We find that IPs with more active members were more successful in promoting agricultural technologies, while IPs with many different stakeholders were less successful in promoting agricultural technologies.     

The Evolving Role of the Africa Scholar in African Studies

This paper explores – through a geo-political perspective – the changes and continuities in South African foreign policy over the period 1990–2010, focusing on the themes of military relations, migration, democratization, and pan-Africanism. The demise of apartheid led to significant changes in South Africa's relations with southern Africa and the rest of Africa, including: transition of South Africa from pariah state to a key leader of the continent; an end to South Africa's destabilization of its immediate neighbours; transition toward more humane treatment of migrants; and transition toward a commitment to democracy promotion in Africa. Yet, continuities among the apartheid and post-apartheid eras persist, including: the persistence of nationalism and realism as guiding principles; ongoing economic and political constraints imposed by neighbouring countries; the persistence of socio-cultural divisions amongst South African and migrant workers; and overall ambivalence about pan-African identity and policies.     

The Impact of the AIDS Epidemic on the Schooling of Orphans and Other Directly Affected Children in Sub-Saharan Africa

This is the second of two articles that assess the available evidence concerning the impact of the AIDS epidemic on teachers and the schooling of orphans and other directly affected children in sub-Saharan Africa. The two main conclusions of this article are, firstly, that current and future projections of orphan country populations are likely to be serious overestimates. And secondly, while the impact of losing one or both parents on educational attainment is often much less than has been suggested, Ministries of Education need to act decisively in order to mitigate the impact of the epidemic on the schooling of these children.     

The Effect of More Demanding Public Services Quality Standards on the Organization of Service Providers

ABSTRACT

This research aims to investigate the effects that more demanding quality standards have on the organization of public service providers. A hypothetical research model showing the relationship between the quality of public service and the organization of public service providers was tested through a survey carried out with managers of water companies located in Italy. Results show that the new regulations impact on the organization in terms of resources and the performance management system, while the degree of centralization (i.e., the hierarchy of authority and degree of participation in decision-making) is not significantly related to the more demanding quality standards.