普京治下的俄罗斯

根据俄罗斯宪法的规定，2008年5月普京不再担任总统一职，但却依然在俄罗斯民众中享有无可争议的威信。普京化解了整个国家的“体制危机”，恢复了社会的稳定和和谐，为国家的进一步持续发展创造了必要的政治、经济和心理前提，将一个趋向没落、前途渺茫的俄罗斯拉回正常的发展轨道，使俄罗斯在国际上保住了大国的地位和尊严。     

普京的强国之路

普京执政六年来,在政治、经济、军事、外交等方面采取了一系列重大举措,使俄罗斯在走向强国之路上迈出了一大步。俄作为一个大国正在重返世界舞台。     

俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策:从普京到"梅普组合"

普京时期俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策可以称之为"回归欧洲"政策。尽管普京执政期间该政策取得了一定的成果,但并没有达到预期的战略目标。新的领导核心"梅普组合"形成后,对其欧洲安全政策进行一系列的调整。未来俄罗斯的欧洲安全政策将以追求国家安全和欧洲安全事务平等发言权为目标建构其欧洲安全政策,从战略退缩走向积极防御,将重建"俄控区",运用经济手段,加强对欧洲国家的影响。     

普京施政一年评估

3月26日,普京当选总统届满一年,这期间他采取一系列稳定政局、团结社会、发展经济的措施,俄局势明显好转,但也暴露了普京的某些弱点.     

《普京文集》序言

《普京文集》反映了普京总统治理国家的重要观点和思想 ,从中人们还可以看到俄罗斯人民在新的历史时期为实现国家和民族振兴所作出的巨大努力。俄罗斯是一个伟大的国家 ,俄罗斯人民是伟大的人民。俄罗斯人民为人类文明的发展作出了杰出的贡献。今天 ,俄罗斯作为联合国安理会常任理事国 ,为维护世界和平与稳定发挥着重要的作用。在普京总统的领导下 ,俄罗斯人民在实现政治稳定、经济发展和社会和谐方面不断取得新的成就。中国人民对此感到由衷的高兴。中俄两国比邻而居 ,两国人民有着深厚的传统友谊 ,建立在两国政治互信基础上的中俄睦邻友好…     

Self-expression values,loyalty generation,and support for authoritarianism: evidence from the Arab world

This study examines the micro foundations of political support in Arab polities. Most Arab states rank highly in aggregate human development or economic wealth, but they lag behind in democracy defying the predictions of modernization theory. Modernization and human development perspective implies that increased resources and self-expression values will induce critical political outlooks toward the regime. This study questions the applicability of this theory to the Arab region and proposes that colonial state formation history, international patron–client relations, and the domestic patronage networks have more leverage in explaining regime support in the Arab region. A series of multilevel and fixed effects regression estimations utilizing the Arab Democracy Barometer reveal that modernization perspective has some relevance. However, world system theory inspired patron–client perspective and loyalty generation through domestic distributive mechanisms play a greater role in shaping political attitudes. The results provide important insights about micro foundations of Arab authoritarianism and the differential utility of emancipative values formed in the context of hierarchical world order.     

Variation in subnational electoral authoritarianism: evidence from the Russian Federation

Despite the burgeoning comparative literature on electoral authoritarian regimes, fewer studies have accounted for the emergence of hegemonic and competitive authoritarian regimes at the subnational level. This article examines the variation in subnational electoral authoritarianism with data from the Russian Federation. First, the article shows that by using a comparative regime classification most Russian subnational cases can be classified as electoral authoritarian between 1991 and 2005. Yet, there are considerable differences in competitiveness between the electoral authoritarian regimes. The article accounts for this variation by drawing on both comparative electoral authoritarianism literature as well as more context-specific explanations. Statistical analysis on 192 subnational electoral authoritarian cases shows that the determinants of Russian subnational authoritarian stability are rather similar to those found in cross-national studies. Subnational (non)competitiveness in Russia appears to be related to the structure of the regional economy and natural resource rents, and to a lesser degree to the specific Russian federal context. Authoritarian “know how” also plays a role in authoritarian regime building. The findings of the article contribute to the literature on electoral authoritarianism, subnational democratization and Russian subnational politics.     

普京时代俄美在中亚的博弈及走势

苏联解体后，俄罗斯作为其继承国，经历了十多年的政治动荡和经济下滑。普京上台后，采取了一系列内政外交新政策，使俄罗斯逐步走向复兴。普京政府在吸取历史和现实教训的基础上，以复兴大国地位为指向，开展务实外交。一方面，它仍视中亚地区为俄传统的势力范围，坚决反对美国的渗透；另一方面，它正视美国介入的现实，采取更灵活的手段争取中亚国家。俄在坚持优先发展与独联体国家间关系的同时，开始对独联体国家区别对待。中亚地区是美国全球战略中的重要一环，但鉴于俄罗斯在该地区的传统优势，美国政府没有采取冒进的政策，而是稳扎稳打，由点及面地向中亚全面渗透。俄美两国在中亚的战略是相冲突的，这将使两国在中亚展开全面的争夺。     

遏制的转向:“梅普组合”时期的中俄美三角关系

本文扼要阐述2008年5月至2012年5月"梅普组合"时期中俄美三角关系的变化。随着俄美关系的缓和,美国已将遏制战略竞争者的矛头对准中国,但这种遏制已经与冷战年代有着很大的不同,是接触中的遏制。同时,中俄战略协作出现了以往没有的政治与经济平衡发展的势头,快速发展的美俄经贸合作和能源合作对中俄相关领域的合作构成了极大的挑战。     

普京政权8年总评价:特征与得失

没有像戈尔巴乔夫和叶利钦那样,以一套抽象理论作为改革的蓝本,普京转而以具体的目标——在民主政治和自由经济的框架下建立一个强大的俄罗斯——作为施政蓝图。这是普京政权的显著特征,也是普京与前苏联、俄罗斯领导人的主要区别所在。为实现这一目标,普京在制定各项具体政策时,大致上遵守民主政治与自由市场的原则。总体而言,这些具体的政策有得也有失:其中促进国民团结与加强管理能力的政策,十分有效;促进经济发展和改善民生的政策,效率一般;至于遏止人口衰退和改善国民健康危机方面的政策,则效率不佳。就现时的发展水平而言,俄罗斯还未完全达到"跻身于世界强国之林"及"民主法治"的目标。     

Demand for democracy in resilient authoritarianism: evidence from rural China

This article investigates the sources of public demand for democratic institutions under authoritarian rule. While a growing body of literature recognizes that in authoritarian polities such as China, economic development does not lead to democratization in a linear fashion, our understanding of the sources of democratization in resilient authoritarianism remains limited. This article provides an empirical test of the three most compelling theories to subsequently emerge: modernization theory, social capital theory, and institutional theory. The results of a survey conducted in the countryside of Zhejiang and Sichuan provinces provide support for the institutional approach in understanding public demand for democracy in rural China, while the modernization theory and social capital theory are shown to be less useful. Specifically, results show that people working in the government system are core supporters of the regime, whereas income, education attainment, social trust, and one’s satisfaction with regime institutions turn out to be irrelevant and do not serve as direct sources of public demand for democracy. These results extend our understanding of the complex interaction between an authoritarian regime and its people, shedding new light on the democratic prospects for resilient authoritarianism.     

Elite defection and grassroots democracy under competitive authoritarianism: evidence from Burkina Faso

One determinant of the success or failure of political revolutions is whether there is a split among the ruling elites. Elite defections in a competitive authoritarian regime can tip the balance in favour of regime change and democratization. This article examines when and why elites defect through the case of Burkina Faso. In October 2014, President Blaise Compaoré of Burkina Faso was forced to step down after 27 years in power and multiple term limits contraventions. We propose a new theory linking growth in democratic attitudes at the grassroots to elite defection from hegemonic parties. We argue that a broad increase in popular democratic attitudes can both decrease the costs and increase the benefits of elite defection, creating conditions that enable elites to rescind their loyalty to the regime. We support this argument with interviews with ruling-party defectors in Burkina Faso and two rounds of Afrobarometer survey data. Our findings demonstrate that democratic attitudes can grow under competitive authoritarian regimes, and that these citizen attitudes can impact regime change by increasing the likelihood of elite defection.     

委内瑞拉执政党如何应对社会矛盾

本文分析了不同历史时期,特别是20世纪80年代末以来委内瑞拉各执政党处理和解决社会矛盾的主要经验和教训。在新自由主义模式下,市场成为社会的主导,国家在社会生活中的作用越来越小。补偿性、聚焦性、临时性的社会政策,并不能真正起到消除贫困、缩小贫富差距的作用。而查韦斯推行的社会改革既不同于20世纪六七十年代采取的民众主义路线,也有别于八九十年代的新自由主义模式,它特别强调了实现社会正义、改善全体人民生活水平的重要性,并实施向中下层民众倾斜的社会政策,使委内瑞拉在社会领域取得了明显进步。但是,由于遭到国内传统势力的强烈反对和抵制,改革进程和效果受到很大影响。查韦斯政府需要总结教训,继续积累执政经验,逐步化解各种矛盾,将改革不断推向深入。     

俄国1905年:泛突厥主义从文化宣传转向政治行动

19世纪下半叶在俄国穆斯林中间出现了主张在语言、思想和行动上进行统一的社会文化运动。20世纪初,俄国泛突厥主义由社会文化运动转变为一场社会政治运动,其标志是1905年的全俄穆斯林大会和穆斯林联盟的成立。     

Economic foundations of subnational authoritarianism: insights and evidence from qualitative and quantitative research

A growing body of subnational comparative research on democracy has focused attention on ‘subnational authoritarianism’, in tandem with increasing interest in local politics across the developing world. Unsurprisingly, this evolving field of study has been characterized by a diversity – if not a dichotomy – of approaches, with quantitative and qualitative research proceeding along parallel and sometimes intersecting tracks. But scholars working in diverse contexts and with diverging approaches have begun to converge on a set of explanations for the patterns of variance observed in subnational authoritarianism within and across national settings. Drawing on studies of Russia, the United States, southern Italy, Argentina and West Africa, this article shows how scholarship has identified the underlying economic foundations of subnational authoritarianism. Combining the findings of recent qualitative and quantitative studies with the author's own research in the Philippines, this article spells out a set of hypotheses which may help to explain patterns of variance in subnational authoritarianism. Variance in subnational authoritarianism, it is suggested, stems from varying local economic conditions and possibilities for accumulation and maintenance of control over local economies. Further ‘mapping’ of subnational authoritarianism thus requires local fieldwork to complement the strengths – and overcome the limitations – of quantitative research.     

Recoupling Russia to Europe: Staying the course

Officials in Ankara are pressing for Turkey to become a key energy hub for the transportation of hydrocarbons from the Caspian region and the Middle East to Europe. It appears that they are seeking to secure certain strategic and economic advantages. Turkey's increasing energy needs could be satisfied, re-export rights obtained, and ambitions to become a significant regional state fulfilled which could facilitate accession to the EU. It seems more likely, though, that Turkey will become an important energy transit state, especially for the Southern Gas Corridor. Here, Turkey could still diversify its gas imports and reduce dependence on Russia.     

Social media and protest mobilization: evidence from the Tunisian revolution

This article explores how social media acted as a catalyst for protest mobilization during the Tunisian revolution in late 2010 and early 2011. Using evidence from protests we argue that social media acted as an important resource for popular mobilization against the Ben Ali regime. Drawing on insights from “resource mobilization theory”, we show that social media (1) allowed a “digital elite” to break the national media blackout through brokering information for mainstream media; (2) provided a basis for intergroup collaboration for a large “cycle of protest”; (3) reported event magnitudes that raised the perception of success for potential free riders, and (4) provided additional “emotional mobilization” through depicting the worst atrocities associated with the regime's response to the protests. These findings are based on background talks with Tunisian bloggers and digital activists and a revealed preference survey conducted among a sample of Tunisian internet users (February–May 2012).