Understanding Political Knowledge and its Influence on Voting Preferences in the 2007 Federal Election

In this article we propose a model to explain how voters’ perceptions of their ideological proximity to a party affect their propensity to vote for that party. We argue that political knowledge plays a crucial moderating role in the relationship between party proximity and voting propensity. It is necessary, however, to distinguish between institutional knowledge (information about the political system) and party knowledge (information about the parties’ left–right positions). An analysis of survey data from the 2007 Swiss federal elections supports our main hypothesis that party knowledge enhances the link between party proximity and voting propensity. Institutional knowledge may have additional influence, but clear evidence for this effect was obtained only for propensities to vote for the Swiss People's Party (SVP). Overall, the impact of political knowledge was found to be substantial, even after controlling for the outstanding influence of party identification and other predictors of voting propensities.     

Beppe Grillo's First Defeat? The May 2013 Municipal Elections in Italy

The article analyses the results of the Italian municipal elections held in May 2013. It focuses on their three most striking features: the clear victory of the centre-left coalition, the marked drop in voter turnout and the shrinkage of the Five Stars Movement (M5S). The article analyses the causes of the M5S' loss of votes and interprets this new party with reference to European (disaffection towards political institutions and the ‘counter-democracy’ phenomenon as explained by Rosanvallon) and Italian (the crumbling of the party system) variables.     

Five Stars and a Cricket. Beppe Grillo Shakes Italian Politics

The article focuses on a new political player: the Five Star Movement led by the comedian Beppe Grillo. The party lies at the junction between different organisational models and conceptions of democracy: it combines an online and an offline presence; it has ‘horizontal’ structural elements, but a top-down decision-making process; it is positioned ‘beyond’ ideologies, while its electorate comes from various political families. The work considers the history, message, leader, organisation and electoral base of the movement, as well as the political opportunity structure that facilitated its growth in 2012 and the challenges it faces in the delicate phase of institutionalisation.     

Still Connected? Attitudinal Representativeness of German Party Memberships

In modern representative democracies political parties are the main institutions responsible for providing linkage between citizens and the state. One way to do this is through organizational linkage mechanisms, especially the representation of a party’s voters through the party membership. This paper tries to describe the attitudinal representativeness of German party memberships in terms of left-right positions using data from two party membership studies from 1998 and 2009. In a second step, the determinants of divergent attitudes of party members from the position of the parties’ voters are analyzed on an individual level, testing four possible explanations for this.     

Populism on Difficult Terrain: The Right- and Left-Wing Challenger Parties in the Federal Republic of Germany

Right-wing populist parties in Germany were unable to benefit from the success of their counterparts in neighbouring Western European states from the mid-1980s. Despite this failure, there were several attempts to establish such a party in Germany. Even the ‘centre’ of the political spectrum attempted to approach populist structures and content, and this was especially true of the FDP during the 2002 parliamentary election campaign. After a discussion of the term ‘populism’, we analyse the different parties' opportunities, political proposals and the reasons why they ultimately failed. We then examine the recently founded party ‘The Left’ as a case of left-wing populism, a rarely discussed topic, and we pay particular attention to the development of the leftist alliance between PDS and WASG. Finally, we discuss whether a leftist populist grouping could, perhaps, have better prospects for success in the German party system than a right-wing populist party.     

Partisanship and Political Sophistication During and Outside of Election Times: A Longitudinal Analysis Using the German SOEP Survey 1984–2012

In many established democracies, partisan attachments play a central role in guiding citizens’ attitudes as well as their political behaviour. Most importantly, partisanship has an effect on what party citizens vote for on Election Day. In general, highly politically sophisticated citizens are more likely to identify with a party compared to the less politically sophisticated. This article argues that the strength of an individual’s partisan attachment varies considerably over time. More specifically, it finds that party attachments are stronger when Election Day is close. The less politically sophisticated in particular benefit from such an effect and develop stronger attachments at election times.     

Towards understanding Botswana and South Africa’s ambivalence to liberal democracy

ABSTRACT

Despite their recognised democratic successes, Botswana and South Africa have had ambivalent experiences with liberal democracy. It is contended that they fall somewhere in-between what scholars refer to as electoral and liberal democracies; dominant party systems within Carothers’ ‘gray zone’. Two explanations are offered. The first relates to the underlying political culture of the ruling elite: the liberal democratic values of the founders and early elites of both the African National Congress (ANC) and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) were never fully embedded; instead, their political cultures were influenced by traditions and ideologies with illiberal values. The second explanation focuses on a key feature of a liberal democracy – restraining of power, namely through encouraging an autonomous civil society and limiting executive access to the state. It is argued that for fear of losing their dominant positions, the ANC and the BDP resist restraints on their access to state power.     

The 1999 Berlin land election

The Berlin election of 1999 resulted in the continuation of the city's Grand Coalition with the veteran CDU leader, Eberhard Diepgen, at the helm, and confirmed the PDS as the strongest party in East Berlin. This article examines the election campaign in Berlin and considers the key factors which determined the outcome. It also considers whether or not the ‘wall in the ballot box’, a political manifestation of the infamous ‘wall in the mind’, still exists over nine years after German reunification. The author argues that the unique history, demography and social make‐up of Berlin, coupled with the prevailing political mood throughout the Federal Republic, made another grand coalition inevitable. She demonstrates that, judging by voting behaviour, ‘inner unity’ remains elusive in Germany's new capital.     

The regulation of party switching in Africa

The article presents a complete overview of existing regulations of party switching in Africa since the reintroduction of multiparty politics in the early 1990s. While most established democracies do not see any reason for sanctioning with legal restrictions the decision of members of parliament to change their party affiliation, in Africa many countries take a critical stance towards party switching. Frequent party switching is considered to weaken political parties, to hinder the institutionalisation of party systems, and to endanger the stability of government and the legitimacy of democracy. The article distinguishes legal regulations of party switching conceptually by what is prohibited and its enforcement. A preliminary analysis shows that anti-defection laws indeed matter for party system institutionalisation in Africa's emerging democracies.     

Institutional dynamics and party think tank development: Britain and Germany compared

Official party think tanks have been a fixture in a number of Western European democracies for many decades but not so in the Anglo-American democratic sphere even though think tanks aligned to parties have flourished. This article explores the reasons that party and think tank ties have evolved differently in these two settings through an examination of the party think tank scene in Germany and Britain. It is suggested that the predominant form of democracy operating in each of these settings helps to explain this critical difference. While the adversarial tendencies of the British political system militate against parties taking much of an interest in establishing official party think tanks, the consensual institutional dynamics associated with Germany’s political system has encouraged parties to sponsor their formation, and reinforced the perceived importance of the party think tank vehicle as agents of democratic linkage.     

Turning Liberal: Legislators’ Individual Preferences and the Regulation of Pre‐Implantation Genetic Diagnosis in Switzerland

Most policy‐making decisions taken in parliamentary democracies are essentially matters of party competition. Yet, in some policies, the linkage function of political parties is limited by purpose, which is frequently the case in free votes with a morality dimension. This has led to a debate in the literature on the determinants of Legislators’ preferences in free votes. The present research note adds to this debate by analyzing the parliamentary procedure to regulate pre‐implantation genetic diagnosis (PGD ) in Switzerland. By assessing whether and to what degree MP s based their decision on their personal characteristics and on the preferences of their constituents, the contribution shows that not only are MP s’ voting decisions determined by these individual level factors, but also that these factors have detectable effects on the legislative outcome.     

Assessing Kaliningrad's Geostrategic Role: The Russian Periphery and A Baltic Concern

Recent developments in post-communist Europe and Latvia in particular have raised questions about political stability in new democracies there. This article argues for taking a long-term perspective on this problem in place of short-term judgments. In doing so, it makes special reference to the EU's political conditionality and its impacts on Latvia and then applies comparative lessons on democratic consolidation based on the concept of ‘partial regimes’. It becomes clear in this analysis that the consolidation process in Latvia has advanced over the past decade and more and, in this respect, the EU did have an important, though limited and rather specific, impact. Yet this process is still incomplete, with historical legacies being a major factor. The ethnic divide has also remained largely unresolved, party development problems have persisted and the public is still unconvinced by the actual democracy they see before them and is alienated by political elite behavior in particular. Hence, Latvia does not have a defective democracy as such, but further change is necessary before democratic consolidation may be achieved there.     

Courting the Voters? Policy Implications of Party Competition for the Reform Output of the Second Merkel Government

Understanding party competition as a ‘political market’, we explore its characteristics during the second Merkel government, 2009–13. On the demand side, analysing opinion polls and the Länder election results, we find that the outcome of the next Bundestag election was uncertain. Thus, electoral competition was likely to be intense. On the supply side, opposition parties presented credible alternatives to government policies with regard to social as well as environmental policy. Regarding the Euro crisis, however, a consensus across the established parties existed. Studying three of the most salient policy issues, we identify party competition as a crucial determinant of decision-making. While the debate on minimum wages was substantially shaped by party competition, resulting in ‘anticipatory obedience’, nuclear energy only became affected by electoral considerations after the ‘Fukushima shock’ which resulted in a major policy shift. Regarding the response to the Euro crisis, however, party competition was essentially suspended.     

Emergence of a Dominant Party System After Multipartyism: Theoretical Implications from the Case of the AKP in Turkey

This study aims to provide insights into how and why a dominant party system emerges after an era of multipartyism. Conceptualising the emergence phase of a dominant party system within the framework of Sartori's ‘predominant party system’, it elaborates the causal weight of different theories within the Turkish context through a comparative-historical analysis. Comparing the case of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) with the Justice Party (AP), it argues that perceptions of an incumbent's good economic performance and lack of centrifugal intra-party conflicts are two crucial factors that lead to the emergence of a dominant party system after multipartyism. Restrictive electoral rules and existing social cleavages, however, create a favourable setting for this outcome.     

Party systems in Africa: Problems of categorising and explaining party systems

Starting from controversial findings about the relationship between party systems and the prospects of democratic consolidation, this article argues that problems can only be properly addressed on the basis of a differentiated typology of party systems. Contradictory research results do not pose an ‘African puzzle’ but can be explained by different and inadequate approaches. We argue that a modified version of Sartori's typology of party systems provides an appropriate method for classifying African party systems. Based on Sartori's framework, a preponderance of predominant and dominant party systems is identified. This can be explained partly by the prevailing authoritarian nature of many multiparty regimes in Africa but not by electoral systems or the ethnic plurality of African societies. All kinds of electoral systems are connected to dominant party systems. High ethnic fragmentation does not automatically produce highly fragmented party systems. This phenomenon can be attributed to the ‘ethnic congress party’ that is based on an ethnic elite coalition.     

Not to the highest bidder: the failure of incumbency in the Zambian 2011 elections

Incumbent political parties in emerging democracies tend to use clientelism and state resources to mobilise electoral support. In most cases, they go on to win these electoral contests. However, this paper uses the Zambian example to demonstrate that mere incumbency may not always win elections. Despite the advantages of incumbency, the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) lost the 2011 elections to the opposition Patriotic Front (PF). To explain this, the paper argues that the qualities of an incumbent political party matter. For the MMD, the paper identifies three major contextual variables which undermined incumbency: first, the internal long-term but sustained centrifugal conditions which systematically eroded the party’s strength. Second, the public perception of the MMD as a decaying and recalcitrant party which increasingly detached itself from the electorate. Third, the presence of a surging populist, grassroots-based opposition political party.     

Germany and the Kosovo war: still a civilian power?

This article assesses the motives, significance and implications of Germany's participation in the 1999 Kosovo War. This was all the more remarkable, because it took place under a Red–Green government and was not legitimised by a UN mandate. Events in Kosovo forced the new government to choose between two foreign policy articles of faith of the German Left: ‘nie wieder Krieg’ (‘never again war’) and ‘nie wieder Auschwitz’ (‘never again Auschwitz’). The government tried to ease this dilemma by flanking its participation in the war with intensive efforts to secure a negotiated settlement of the crisis involving Russia. Despite its participation in the war, Germany remains a ‘civilian power’, as it is committed to deploying military force strictly multilaterally. Kosovo shows that it has become a normal ‘civilian power’, comparable to other mature democracies in the Euro-Atlantic community.     

Populist Communication and Publicity: An Empirical Study of Contextual Differences in Switzerland

Abstract: This study analyzes the context‐dependency of populist communication and asks whether there are variations in populist communication for representatives of different kinds of parties. In contrast to previous research on European populism, which mostly considers only the right‐wing, this study includes the entire scope of political parties; thus allowing for the possibility of the diffusion of populism in contemporary politics. The empirical contribution is a multilevel analysis of speeches in non‐public and public forums (closed parliamentary committees, open parliamentary floors, and the talk show ‘Arena’) on immigration and asylum amendments in Switzerland. A so‐called populist party, the Swiss People’s Party, played a significant role in drafting the legislation. Analysis reveals that a) different public settings influence populist communication differently; b) a non‐populist party, the Christian‐democrats, employs more populist communication on average than any other party and its populism is employed more consistently across contexts than that of the Swiss People’s Party; c) but when speaking in media forms, the Swiss People’s Party employs substantially more populist communication than any other party. Thus, the type of public forum does not uniformly contribute to higher levels of populist communication, but rather the effect of forum type varies substantially by party.     

Three Faces of Constituency Campaigns in Mixed-Member Electoral Systems. Parties and Candidates in Germany, 2005–13

Constituency campaigns are multidimensional and complex: parties and candidates are deeply entangled, and, at least in mixed-member electoral systems, local constituency campaigns are embedded within national party campaigns. Recent discussions have focused on aspects of campaign change in European democracies, especially disentanglement in terms of individualisation, personalisation, and/or localisation. This study contributes to the discussion both conceptually and empirically. Conceptually, three dimensions (‘faces’) of constituency campaigns are differentiated: organisational partyness, vertical integration, and communicative personalisation. This threefold differentiation allows for a more precise analysis of campaign patterns by differentiating party–candidate (organisation, communication) and intra-party (vertical integration) aspects. Constituency campaigns in the 2005, 2009, and 2013 German federal elections are empirically examined. The analysis explains why candidates decide for one or another campaign pattern. These three faces are empirically distinct as well. Furthermore, we argue that parties remain vital for the organisation of campaigns despite a decline in centralisation. Addressing the communicative face, the analysis shows that candidate-related issues are important, but a mix of party- and candidate-related communication gains importance.     

From Machine Politics to the Politics of Technocracy: Charting Changes in Governance in the Mexican Municipality1

Abstract — A typology comprising technocratic rationality versus political partisanship helps to identify several local government structures found in contemporary Mexico: political machines; autonomous-indigenous; technocratic; and modernising party governments. Case study research in over a dozen municipalities for three principal parties suggest a trend towards increasing technocratic and more administratively efficient municipal government and changing patterns of partisanship. This arises from new pressures associated with electoral opening, political alternation, new government actors, growing urban development complexity, and from federal reforms offering greater local government autonomy. However, while improved administration and technocratic governance often leads to positive outcomes, they do not necessarily imply ‘good government’.