No Democratic Change… and Yet No Authoritarian Continuity: The Inter-paradigm Debate and North Africa After the Uprisings

North Africa has gone through dramatic events since the eruption of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia in late 2010. Despite sharing similar characteristics that were central to the uprisings, they have known different political and institutional trajectories since then. The article provides an appraisal of the contributions to this special issue focusing in particular on the peculiar situation of countries where no genuine democratic change has occurred and where there is little authoritarian continuity as well.     

Dimensions of security

Abstract

The Arab uprisings’ failure to bring about either the scale or type of political change in the Maghreb that it initially seemed to promise belies the significance of its impact on the region. While Algeria, Mauritania and Morocco continue to be ruled by the same competitive authoritarian regimes that held power when the protests began, they, and the new governments in Tunisia and Libya, must now negotiate an altered and more dangerous security environment than before. The unsettling of Tunisia’s security apparatus and the outbreak of full-blown civil war in Libya have created new opportunities for terror and criminal groups to thrive and expand. The primary aim of this special issue is to chart and explain many of the critical changes in the Maghreb’s security environment that have occurred as a result of the Arab Spring. Each of the articles collected here identifies and analyses at least one important security issue in one or more Maghreb country as well as explain how that issue has emerged in response to or been affected by the Arab Spring.     

Change and continuity in post-unification German foreign policy

Ten years after unification, Germany still maintains its post-Second World War foreign policy course based on transatlantic multilateralism and European integration despite changes in Germany's international and domestic contexts. This study argues that neither realist nor institutionalist explanations can explain the post-unification pattern of German foreign policy. Instead, continuity and change in this policy can be understood best through a role-theoretical approach based on the civilian power idealtype. Two causal pathways are developed which account for continuity in foreign policy orientation (goals) and strategies while explaining change in the choice of foreign policy instruments. First, the apparent success of Germany's traditional foreign policy role concept during and after unification helped to reify a broad foreign policy consensus around the goals and strategies of an ideal-type civilian power. Second, major foreign policy crises, such as the Yugoslavian wars, stirred the long held hierarchy between the core values of reticence vis-à-vis the use of force (never again German militarism) and the special German responsibility to prevent genocide (never again Auschwitz). The interaction between domestic and foreign expectations provides a promising source for explaining change and continuity in Germany's foreign policy role concept and behaviour.     

Politics,Economics and Saudi Military Intervention in Bahrain

The March 14, 2011 Saudi military intervention in Bahrain to suppress pro-democracy uprisings created serious regional and global concerns. Political analysts and commentators have interpreted the Saudi intervention primarily in terms of domestic and regional political and strategic dynamics. This paper analyses the intervention issue from both political and economic perspectives and argues that the Saudi decision to intervene in Bahrain to trample the democratic rights of common Bahrainis was no less, if not more, influenced by economic factors than political and strategic calculations. Moreover, similar Saudi interventions in other Gulf Cooperation Council countries remain a reality if the status quo is seriously threatened by any internal pro-democracy forces, with or without external support.     

From Reform to Resistance: Universities and Student Mobilisation in Egypt and Morocco before and after the Arab Uprisings

University students played a pivotal role in the Arab uprisings in 2011. This article explores the link between reform policies and social mobilisation through a comparison of university reforms and student protests in Egypt and Morocco. It argues that both—the fabrication of social policies and the formation of protest—are rooted in the specific political configuration of authoritarian regimes. Egypt and Morocco have both embarked on internationalising higher education, but the monarchy was more successful in embracing change through a more pluralistic type of governance. Hence, Morocco was able to escape the disruptive dynamics of the uprising, unlike Egypt, which was more reluctant to establish a new type of governance.     

Continuity through Co-optation: Rural Politics and Regime Resilience in Morocco and Mauritania

Morocco and Mauritania's regimes differ radically in their political structures and contemporary histories, yet they employed several similar strategies to secure survival during the Arab uprisings. Besides limited repression, constitutional reforms and palliative concessions, both regimes also used a distinct strategy of co-optation to aid authoritarian resilience. Targeting rural politicians with weak party affiliations for co-optation, regimes used it to build and reinforce loyalist political parties in the late 2000s. Once the uprisings began, both regimes deployed these loyalist parties to undertake counter-revolutionary activities to contain and counterbalance the power of youth and Islamist movements.     

Israel,the Arab Spring,and the unfolding regional order in the Middle East: a strategic assessment

Since 2011, geo-strategic interactions have exerted pressure on various political communities. In particular, uncertainty over the foreign policy intentions of new leadership elites and the nature of the unfolding regional security system in the Middle East have impacted the strategic questions Israel must answer: how can Israel rationally assess the new environment? What foreign policy approach would best serve Israel’s distinct national interests? Using insights from the levels-of-analysis framework and from the realist theory of International Relations, this article aims to explore Israel’s reading of recent regional developments and its attitudes and behaviours towards the attendant and emerging strategic challenges. The analysis reveals that the Arab Spring uprisings exacerbated the already anarchic Middle East environment, aggravating mistrust and antagonism in Israel. The urgency of the attraction of protectionism and militarism in Israel was an expression of the realist approach to Israel’s primary strategic consolidation. With time, the regional dynamic has evolved into a more predictable—but still complex—structure than it was during its early phase (2010–2013). Although there have been signs of potential regional political eruptions, other developments have promoted continuity in the Middle East, which plays to Israel’s strategic advantage.     

The UN's response to the underlying causes of the Arab Spring before and after the eruption of events: a critical assessment of the UN's pursuit of its core values and purposes

This article aims to assess whether the UN is effectively pursuing its core values and purposes, focusing on the Arab Spring and UN efforts in the MENA region. It examines how the UN responded to the long-standing causes of the Arab Spring uprisings, both before and after their eruption. After linking the conflict resolution literature with the literature on the root causes of the Arab Spring uprisings, the article surveys UN efforts between 1994 and 2017 regarding human development, democratization, human rights, conflict prevention and peacebuilding, alongside the resolutions of relevant UN bodies. This comprehensive survey of the activities of the UNDP, UN human rights machinery, human security apparatuses, and the General Assembly and Security Council suggests that the UN was limited in promoting its core values democratic governance and human rights, which could have addressed the long-standing root causes of the Arab Spring. The article concludes that the UN's limitations, stemming from its non-interference principle also paved the way for power politics, external intervention and instability in the region.     

Introduction: Assessing the Social and Political Impact of the Internet and New Social Media in Asia

This paper introduces a special issue on the social and political impact of new information communications technologies (ICTs) in Asia, with specific attention paid to new social media. This paper provides some contextualisation of the broader questions that the principal literature on the subject raises, namely questions about the effectiveness of ICTs as tools for mobilisation and information exchange; mechanisms of censorship and control; and the nature of public discourse on the Internet. In doing so, the paper introduces and locates the articles that comprise this special issue within these debates.     

The Patterns of Syrian Uprising: Comparing Hama in 1980–1982 and Homs in 2011

Economic grievances that marginalized rural citizens and eroded the Syrian government’s political base are widely considered to have sparked the 2011 uprising. Although the country’s 1980–1982 protests were also blamed on economic factors, commentators to date have largely resisted comparing the events. This article draws parallels between Hama in the lead-up to 1980–1982 and Homs pre-2011, arguing that while there are differences between the uprisings—including the socioeconomic group involved—the root causes of grievance were remarkably similar. Both uprisings followed a redrawing of Syria’s social contract that marginalized a group that had previously had a stake in the Syrian state. In both cases, a new underclass was formed that became the backbone of the political unrest. Although economic factors cannot explain the 2011 uprising in its entirety, this article argues that some of the seed dynamics in 2011 were remarkably similar to 1980–1982.     

也论差猜时期泰国的印支政策

柬埔寨问题产生后 ,印支政策是泰国外交政策的核心。差猜上台后实施的“战场变商场”政策因其变化性而受到广泛关注。该政策既反映了泰国政治变迁 ,又表现出泰国外交政策的继承性 ,同时亦展现了泰国的地区雄心。实质上 ,差猜时期泰国的印支政策是“双轨政策” ,即“一轨”为“战场变商场”政策 ,另“一轨”是 :以外长西提为首的泰国外交部实施 (与东盟集体政策一致 )的政策。双轨政策实质上反映了泰国国家利益 (远期与近期 )的分歧与协调及国家利益与东盟地区利益的分歧与协调。     

Critics and Rebels: Older Arab Intellectuals Reflect on the Uprisings

Most Arabs, including intellectuals, agree that the recent uprisings have profoundly changed the realities they have known for decades since the independence of their states. The historical character of the moment, and the emergence of a youth capable of producing unprecedented changes, have together forced an older generation of Arab intellectuals, born roughly between the 1930s and the 1950s, to acknowledge the coming of a new generation of critics and rebels. This article looks at how thinkers of the older generation have written about the uprisings and its actors, by examining their public statements in the form of articles or interviews on television channels, in newspapers and journals, some of them newly launched. I focus on Lebanese poet Abbas Baydoun, Syrian philosopher Sadeq Jalal al-Azm, Lebanese novelist Elias Khoury, Egyptian novelist Baha' Taher, Bahraini thinker Muhammad Jaber al-Ansari, Syrian poet Adonis and Tunisian sociologist Taher Labib. While most of them value the importance of intellectual work in the struggle for human dignity and freedom, they also admit its limitations. They reflect on the significance of the popular and youth participation in advancing the causes they militated for in previous decades.     

Between hierarchy and heterarchy: Post-Arab uprisings’ civil–military relations and the Arab state

Every actor who commands coercive resources plays a relevant role in the complex processes of state restructuring following regime change. The role of armies in the 2010–2011 Arab uprisings has been widely explored, but limited attention has been devoted to how different agents with coercive power have been involved in the restructuring of political order. This contribution presents the theoretical framework within which the remaining empirical contributions are situated. The central insight is that better understanding of the emerging political orders requires moving away from binary notions of hierarchy and anarchy as ordering principles and look at how, within heterarchical political orders, coercive agents behave within fluid state–society relations.     

East Asia in the Global Economy: Theoretical and Empirical Questions for Marxism

ABSTRACT

As Marxism and socialism pass through watershed years it is important to reflect on the abiding questions of Marxist theory and empirical analysis. This article takes up this task in the context of East Asia under the impetus of globalisation and neo-liberalism, introducing a collection of five articles collected in the special issue. The article shows that questions Marx posed about the global economy more than a century ago remain prescient and continue to animate cutting-edge research, as shown in the articles in this special issue.     

The French foreign policy U-turn in the Arab Spring – the case of Tunisia

As for many, the Arab uprisings of 2010–11 came as a surprise for France. After initial inactivity, followed by last minute support of the Tunisian regime, President Sarkozy took a U-turn by spearheading the military intervention in Libya and both Sarkozy and his successor Hollande announced a re-launch in the Franco-Tunisian relations. Starting from the assumption that France’s drastic foreign policy changes cannot be sufficiently explained by presidential change, we draw upon social-constructivist discourse-bound identity theory and provide a model for discursive legitimations of foreign policy changes. When the “permissive consensus” between the three discursive formations of the French foreign policy identity breaks up, drastic foreign policy turns may occur. By analysing the French policy actions and rhetoric towards Tunisia between 2007 and 2015, we show, however, that the sudden change tends to be rather ephemeral and that French foreign policy seems to be gradually returning to its pre-revolution approach.     

Putin,Popular Protests,and Political Trajectories in Russia: A Comparative Perspective

During December 2011, large-scale, anti-regime protests erupted across Russia. What do the Russian uprisings reveal about popular challenges to authoritarian rule and the political trajectory of contemporary Russian authoritarianism? This study identifies two models of citizen mobilization against authoritarian leaders, one focusing on street-based protests and the other using elections as the key arena for launching popular challenges. Three factors encouraging both models are analyzed: declining public support for the regime; growing evidence that leaders are no longer invincible; and changing political opportunities for the opposition. The extent to which these conditions are present in Russia and what this ledger suggests about plausible political trajectories there are evaluated.     

Does Coup-Proofing Work? Political–Military Relations in Authoritarian Regimes amid the Arab Uprisings

The popular mass uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) call into question the assumption, widespread prior to the “Arab Spring”, that militaries in these countries were subservient to civilianized and consolidated authoritarian regime incumbents. In most countries militaries have stepped in to suppress uprisings, replace incumbents, or cause civil wars. The analysis of political-military relations explains the immediate outcome of popular mass mobilization in the MENA region and helps re-conceptualize coup-proofing as an important authoritarian survival strategy. Accounting for variation in the degree of officers' loyalty toward incumbents provides an opportunity to test the efficacy of coup-proofing. The article accounts for questions largely ignored in the theoretical literature: which coup-proofing mechanisms work best, and under which circumstances? In a qualitative comparison of Egypt and Syria, the article illustrates that authoritarian regimes have applied fundamentally different coup-proofing strategies. The Syrian regime has engineered integrative strategies to tie officers closer to the incumbent, provoking a greater degree of loyalty during regime crisis than in Egypt where officers were excluded from politics.     

Democratization in the Middle East and North Africa: A More Ambidextrous Process?

Democratization is always an ambidextrous process. On the one hand, it triggers a universalistic set of norms, events, processes and symbols. On the other hand, democratization involves a much more particularistic set of ‘realistic’ adaptations to the structures and circumstances of individual countries. In analysing the structures and conjunctures of countries in the Arab World during the past decades, scholars looked at them from the perspective of persistent authoritarianism. This essay exploits democratization theory – as well as its converse ? by analysing the universalistic set of events, processes and symbols of democratization elsewhere in the world, and then identifying the particularistic characteristics of timing, location and coincidence that seem likely to affect the political outcome of regime change in the countries affected by recent popular uprisings in the Arab World.     

Dominican Party System Continuity amid Regional Transformations: Economic Policy,Clientelism, and Migration Flows

In the 1980s and 1990s, economic crisis produced ideological convergence in many Latin American party systems. Much scholarship explores how this convergence frequently provoked system change that enabled renewed ideological differentiation, but little research examines instances where convergence persisted without destabilizing the system. Through comparative historical analysis of Dominican continuity amid regional change, this study identifies factors that sustain or challenge party systems. Then, through analysis of Americas Barometer surveys, it assesses the causal mechanisms through which these factors shape support for the traditional Dominican parties. The findings demonstrate that maintaining programmatic and clientelist linkages facilitates continuity. In addition, the article argues that the threats political outsiders pose to existing party systems are constrained when people excluded from the system are divided and demobilized. In the Dominican case, Haitian immigration divides the popular sector while Dominicans abroad sustain ties to the parties, with both migration flows facilitating party system continuity.     

The boundaries of acceptability: France’s positioning and rhetorical strategies during the Arab uprisings

Why did French leaders adopt vastly different positions during the Arab uprisings? Building on recent studies that emphasize the importance of rhetoric to understand states’ behaviour, this article argues that France’s inconsistent positioning results from decision-makers trying to remain within political boundaries that are acceptable both to their domestic audiences and to foreign partners. Through a chronological content analysis of France’s top decision-makers’ responses to the crises in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Bahrain, the article provides evidence that acceptability-enhancing rhetorical strategies contribute to explaining foreign policy positioning.