The Use of Twitter during the 2009 German National Election

During the 2009 election campaign, Twitter not only served as a source of news for the media but also became a public stage for active political users. In particular, hopes were raised about a pluralistic grass-roots sphere of public communication in which political information can be shared in a non-ideological, decentralised and egalitarian manner. To test whether Twitter led to new patterns of political interaction and to determine the beneficiaries, we present findings from a large-scale network analysis investigating about four million tweets by more than 33,000 users including citizens, journalists and politicians in the 2009 National Election. Our analysis identifies the most popular users, contents and topics in this political sphere, revealing the Pirate Party movement as the most influential group during the campaign. A network analysis of the participating actors confirms the strong position of established online activists and bloggers in contrast to traditional mass media, politicians and parties.     

One-Sided Discussions: Deliberation in Weblogs during the 2009 National Election

Against the backdrop of the 2008 Obama campaign, participatory online tools were one main component of parties' campaigning strategy in Germany 2009. They used a wide variety of online tools to communicate directly with the voters. While political actors reiterated to accentuate the discursive potential of such tools, sceptics questioned whether such instrumental campaign communication can facilitate sound political discussions. The article analyses whether or not the internet fostered citizen participation during the 2009 national election campaign for the German Bundestag. A content analysis of the posts and comments in the weblogs of the major parties, CDU and SPD, was conducted. Results reveal that participation took place only on a very low level. Furthermore, the few comments published (370 in four weeks) failed to meet basic requirements of deliberation such as objectivity or argumentativity. Moreover, both parties actively prevented a free discourse as single comments may not have been authorised.     

进步还是倒退?——政治发展视野下的缅甸2010年选举

从政治发展角度讲,缅甸2010的选举更多地意味着一种倒退。该选举赋予了军人集团的政治垄断以正当性。这样的结果之所以会出现,全国民主联盟的错误选择是其中一个重要的原因。选举后的缅甸新政权,虽然依然会面临来自西方国家的强大压力,但来自亚洲一些国家的支持,则会给缅甸的新政权提供有力的支撑。展望未来,缅甸的政治发展之路将十分艰难。     

The Political Consequences of National Crisis Management: Micro-Level Evidence from German Voters during the 2008/09 Global Economic Crisis

How does national crisis management affect the electoral fortunes of coalition governments? Drawing on micro-level data from just before the 2009 federal elections in Germany, this article investigates how voters' evaluation of specific policies against the global financial crisis affected approval of and voting intentions for the then-governing grand coalition. We find that voters in favour of the two most prominent anti-crisis policies, the car-scrap bonus and the public guarantee for banks, were more likely to approve of and to vote for the two incumbent parties. These evaluations of specific policies influenced individuals' vote choice in addition to their assessments of the economic situation more generally and in addition to party identification. This suggests that even in the greatest economic turmoil with blurred political responsibilities, government parties can win or lose voters through the implementation of specific economic policies.     

2009年马来西亚政局述评

本文从经济与民生基本状况、政治力量结构、政治事件、公共政策等视角,尝试对2009年马来西亚政局的基本脉络做出分析,并提出关于今后马来西亚政局走向的若干判断.     

印度国大党胜选原因及新政府的政策走向

印度国大党在第14届人民院选举获胜的原因在于普通民众对现状不满、国大党选战策略得当和选民对竞选纲领的认同差异.新政府稳定与否主要取决于国大党能否实现内部协调以维持执政联盟的团结一致.新政府对内将对一些政策进行调整,放慢自由化改革步伐,对外将延续前政府的政策,继续改善印巴、印中关系,适度发展印美关系.     

Patrolling the Boundaries of Politics: Collingwood, Political Analysis and Political Action

Debates over whether a certain thing is (or ought to be) construed as 'political' are frequent and frequently interminable. This article argues that approaches to the proper understanding, scope and application of political concepts should recognise that they are both normative and contestable and also that, because they are employed by both theorist and theorised, they can never be sharply defined. It is argued that many debates achieve no theoretical closure because the terms of discussion are confined by a certain understanding of concepts as empirical and classificatory. This article examines these issues by using the work of R.G. Collingwood to suggest that conceptual overlap is inevitable and also that the theoretical analysis of politics should distinguish between the empirical and the theoretical phase of the concept. Philosophically, politics is not a separate sphere of activity but a dimension of all activity, and the correct way to understand politics is to understand it as activity, not as substance. For certain empirical purposes we categorise some things as political and others as non-political, but in doing so we should be careful whether we are doing so philosophically, historically or through stipulative definition. This article does not seek to cover all ramifications of the debate or its later literature, but to suggest that Collingwood's approach has something to contribute to the analysis of political concepts.     

当代俄罗斯政党财政及其对选举的影响——以第七届国家杜马选举为例

《俄罗斯联邦联邦会议国家杜马代表选举法》对选举基金有专门规定:政党参加选举一定要建立政党选举基金.政党选举基金全部经费支出最高不超过7亿卢布.政党的自有资金不可超过选举基金限额的50％,即3.5亿卢布,对公民和法人捐赠的条件和金额也有相应限制.通过对参加第七届俄罗斯国家杜马选举的全部14个政党的选举财政情况进行研究可得出以下结论:选举基金的支出与第七届俄罗斯国家杜马选举结果没有直接的因果关系;意识形态因素对杜马选举发挥着重要作用,"统一俄罗斯"党和俄罗斯联邦共产党这两个党具有更多的选举竞争力;在第七届国家杜马选举中,最终获得进入俄国家杜马资格的4个主要政党除俄罗斯联邦共产党之外,都有募集到直接的政治献金,这些政治献金在俄罗斯是合法的;进入国家杜马中的政党在印刷宣传品方面的选举支出所发挥的作用要比其在电视宣传方面的选举支出发挥的作用大.     

Pathways to Karlsruhe: A Sequence Analysis of the Careers of German Federal Constitutional Court Judges

Judges of the German Federal Constitutional Court can be seen as both judicial and political elites. Yet up to now there is no systematic work on the Court's' judges and especially their careers prior to their appointments. Using sequence analysis, this article identifies four relatively distinct clusters of career characteristics: academia, administration (and administrative courts), ordinary jurisdiction and politics. Judges whose career background is limited to the judicial sphere mostly advance from a level below the Länder to the Länder and then on to the federal level, while those with a background in politics or administration switch less often among them. Furthermore, little evidence was found to suggest that differences in the judges' career paths can be explained by reference to the body that elected them (Bundestag or Bundesrat) or the party that nominated them (CDU/CSU or SPD). The article also illustrates the possibilities of sequence analysis for elite studies.     

越南未来五年政治经济发展走向预测——基于对越共“十一大”制订的发展目标之分析

2011年年初,越南共产党召开了具有划时代意义的第十一届全国代表大会,大会通过了《2011—2015五年的方向和任务》、《2011—2020年经济社会发展战略》等文件,制订了未来五年具体的经济奋斗目标。本文以本次会议为契机,以会议所通过的一系列决议为基础,以现行经济政策为参照系,全面分析在未来五年中越南政治经济改革走向以及将因此而面临的种种机遇与挑战。     

"2004年美国大选及其影响"国际研讨会综述

2004年 12月 8日,“2004年美国大选及其影响”国际研讨会在北京王府井大饭店召开。会议由中华美国学会与中国社会科学院美国研究所主办,亚洲基金会、波音中国有限公司、北京普世之光文化艺术有限公司协办。美国研究所所长兼中华美国学会会长王缉思主持了开幕式,亚洲基金会项目发展主任邱越伦、福特基金会北京办事处首席代表华安德、波音公司副总裁兼波音中国公司总裁王建民、普世之光文化艺术公司公共事务经理王晓丽等到会祝贺,来自中共中央党校、国务院发展中心、中国国际问题研究所、北京大学、国防大学、军事科学院、人民日报、中央电视…     

国家权力与国家能力:俄罗斯转型期的国家治理模式演进——兼论"梅—普"时代的国家治理前景

国家权力与国家能力是影响国家治理的关键变量,能否有效协调二者之间的关系将直接影响国家整体的秩序治理与社会经济发展的长期绩效.本文从国家权力与国家能力的关系入手,对俄罗斯20世纪中期以来的国家治理模式的演化路径以及期间的制度变迁与社会经济绩效变化进行了深刻剖析,对"梅-普"时代的国家治理与社会经济发展前景进行了展望.在此基础上,归纳总结出俄罗斯国家权力与国家能力转换关系的倒U型曲线.     

气候政策立场的国内经济基础——对欧盟成员国生态产业发展的比较分析

由于气候变化问题本身所具有的全球性特征,应对气候变化的技术革新及市场化所形成的生态产业对于一国未来发展潜力及经济地位无疑具有非常重要的影响。一个国家生态产业的力量越强,则越倾向于采取积极的气候政策,其参与国际气候谈判的立场也越积极与超前。本文通过对欧盟15个成员国生态产业和气候政策立场的分析考察证实,生态产业实力较强的德国、奥地利、荷兰一直是欧盟气候变化政策的积极"领导者",而生态产业实力相对较弱的西班牙、葡萄牙、希腊和爱尔兰是欧盟气候政策的"拖后腿者",处于中间地位的英国、意大利、比利时、丹麦、卢森堡总体上政策立场趋于积极,法国、芬兰、瑞典情况复杂。因此,本文认为,生态产业实力的大小是决定欧盟成员国气候政策及其参与国际气候治理立场的重要因素。     

Political compromise on land reform: A study of South Africa and Namibia

The fact that both South Africa and Namibia achieved democratic rule through a process of negotiation, rather than revolution, has had implications for the land reform programmes being implemented by both countries. The author suggests that land hunger has not been addressed and that while compromise on the issue has enabled political stability to date, this may not last.     

试析泰国社会运动和政治不稳定的根源

自2005年以来,泰国政治风波不断,社会运动此起彼伏.无论是他信派还是反他信派势力执政,政府都面临着来自民间力量的强大压力.本文对社会运动的概念作了初步探讨,并且确定了泰国半自主、半宪政的国家类型.在此基础上,文章从政治形态、经济背景、文化传统三个分析维度考察近三年来泰国社会运动多发和政治秩序不稳定的深层根源.     

马来西亚政局突变的混沌学解读

2008年的马来西亚大选,出现了所有政评家都意想不到的结果,即执政的国阵失去数十年以来一直保有的多数国会议席和五个州政权.本文运用混沌理论对此"不规则"现象进行解读,先后分析选前形势,印度人示威及其对其他族群选民的影响,网络传播与政治动员的关系等.本文认为,政治领域和其他领域一样,也存在"混沌"或"不规则", "网络政治"特点,使当代政治的"不规则"日渐增多,传统定常的政治分析方法面临着新的挑战.     

"中美关系与国际格局学术研讨会"综述

2008年6月28～30日,由中美关系史研究会、北京第二外国语大学英语系、鲁东大学外国语学院和中国社会科学院美国研究所联合举办,鲁东大学承办的"中美关系与国际格局学术研讨会"在烟台举行.来自全国各地30多个学术研究机构和高等院校的50多位从事美国问题及中美关系研究的专家学者参加了此次学术研讨活动,共提交论文40余篇.     

Francis Fukuyama and the Origins of Political Order and the State: A Historical Critique

This essay examines the model of state development put forward by Francis Fukuyama in his book, The Origins of Political Order. It argues that the evolutionary model used by Fukuyama experiences problems when it comes to dealing with specific historical examples. Its emphasis on the Qin state as the “first modern state” places an excessive emphasis on coercion and violence as the basis of the state. It attempts to relegate Rome to being equivalent to a chiefdom to fit it into his model whereas in reality Rome evolved differently to China and relied much more on cooperation and networks. England after 1688 provides another example of how Fukuyama's model is deficient. On this basis the paper argues that a universal evolutionary model is insufficient to explain political development and it is more appropriate to begin analysis with real political societies.