Are Place-Based Policies Always a Blessing? Evidence from China’s National Poor County Programme

In this paper, we evaluate the effects of a large-scale and continuing place-based policy in China. In 1994, the Chinese central government designated 592 counties as National Poor Counties (NPC), which have been receiving preferential treatment in several aspects. Our identification strategy exploits a discontinuous criterion for determining a county’s eligibility of the programme. We find that the NPC programme failed to foster local economic growth. Further investigation suggests that local capture is partly responsible for this failure. Our findings yield important policy implications that, in countries with limited local accountability, place-based policies characterised by decentralised implementation are not always a blessing.     

Is Poverty in Africa Mostly Chronic or Transient? Evidence from Synthetic Panel Data

Absent actual panel household survey data, we construct for the first time synthetic panel data for more than 20 countries accounting for two-thirds of the population in sub-Saharan Africa. We employ in this process repeated cross sections that span, on average, a six-year period for each country. Our analysis suggests that all these countries as a whole have had pro-poor growth. In particular, one third of the poor population escaped poverty during the studied period, which is larger than the proportion of the population that fell into poverty in the same period. The region also saw a 28 per cent increase in the size of the middle class. Chronic poverty, however, remains high and a considerable proportion of the population is vulnerable to falling into poverty.     

Who Suffers the Penalty?: A Panel Data Analysis of Earnings Gaps in Vietnam

In spite of its predominant economic weight in developing countries, little is known about the informal sector earnings structure compared to that of the formal sector. Taking advantage of the rich VHLSS dataset in Vietnam, in particular its three wave panel data (2002, 2004, 2006), we assess the magnitude of various formal–informal earnings gaps while addressing heterogeneity at three different levels: the worker, the job (wage employment vs. self-employment) and the earnings distribution. We estimate fixed effects and quantile regressions to control for unobserved individual characteristics. Our results suggest that the informal sector earnings gap highly depends on the workers’ job status and on their relative position in the earnings distribution. Penalties may in some cases turn into premiums. By comparing our results with studies in other developing countries, we draw conclusions highlighting Vietnam’s labour market specificity.     

Do Social Protection Transfers Reduce Poverty and Vulnerability to Poverty in Pakistan? Household Level Evidence from Punjab

Empirical studies in different developing countries have investigated the impact of social protection (SP) on ex-post poverty; however, few studies analysed the impact of SP on ex-ante vulnerability to poverty (VtP). This paper contributes to the literature by evaluating the impact of SP on vulnerability to poverty (VtP) and poverty rates among households in the Punjab province of Pakistan. A hierarchical modelling approach is used to analyse the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS-2011) data of about 90,000 households. Matching methods and simultaneous endogenous switching regression are used to control for potential selection bias and estimate average treatment effects. Our results show that SP has a positive impact in reducing household poverty and VtP, but this impact is mainly driven by a short-term flood relief cash transfer programme, pension of government employees and households’ regular purchase from utility store network.     

Gender Discrimination in Microfinance? Some Evidence from Uganda

Abstract

Microfinance literature has proved the existence of gender discriminatory practices against women in some specific contexts. Discrimination is often explored from the access side (loans approved or denied). Following Agier and Szafarz (2013), we deviate from this practice and use the variable loan size, considering up to four loans for each client. Drawing on data from a microfinance programme in Uganda, we find no evidence of gender discrimination against women clients, even though our results show that the loan size is influenced by personal characteristics and that women, in contrast to men, are rewarded according to their credit history.     

Are there Limits to Financing Culture through the Market? Evidence from the U.S. Museum Field

The commercialization of nonprofit organizations has recently taken center stage as one of the pivotal policy issues facing this sector in the United States and elsewhere. In many ways, American museums have long been at the forefront of the trend with the operation of retail activities in the form of museum stores, mail-order catalogues and, most recently, web-based virtual shops. While museums in other parts of the world have begun to follow the American example, there has been relatively little scrutiny of the viability of this commercialization strategy. This article examines US tax and census data to chart the development of museum merchandising revenues from the 1980s to the 1990s.     

Does Market Access Mitigate the Impact of Seasonality on Child Growth? Panel Data Evidence from Northern Ethiopia

Seasonality in agricultural production continues to shape intra-annual food availability in low-income countries. Using high-frequency panel data from northern Ethiopia, this study attempts to quantify seasonal fluctuations in children’s weights. Consistent with earlier studies, we document considerable seasonality in children’s age and height adjusted weights. While children located closer to local food markets are better nourished compared to their counterparts residing farther away, their weights are also subject to considerable seasonality. Further analysis shows that children located closer to food markets consume more diverse diets than those located farther away but the content of the diet varies across seasons. This leads us to conclude that households located near these food markets are not able to insulate their children from seasonal weight fluctuations. We discuss some policy options with potential to address this threat to child wellbeing.     

Does Observance of Religious Holidays Affect Agricultural Productivity and Household Welfare? Evidence from Rural Ethiopia

This study examines whether traditional customs affect household's welfare by taking the case of the work prohibition related with religion in rural Ethiopia. Although the anecdotal evidence suggests that work prohibition by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, to observe the religious holidays, is one of the reasons for the high poverty incidence in Ethiopia, the estimation results do not show that there is a significant effect of the number of religious holidays observed on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Observance of religious holidays affects crop choice and income source.     

Are Women as Likely to Take Risks and Compete? Behavioural Findings from Central Vietnam

Using controlled experiments to compare the risk attitude and willingness to compete of husbands and wives in 500 couples in rural Vietnam, we find that women are more risk averse than men and that, compared to men, women are less likely to choose to compete, irrespective of how likely they are to succeed. Relevant to development programmes concerned with lifting women out of poverty, our findings suggest that women may be more reluctant to adopt new technologies, take out loans, or engage in economic activities that offer higher expected returns, in order to avoid setups that require them to be more competitive or that have less predictable outcomes.     

How Responsive are Chinese Exports to Exchange Rate Changes? Evidence from Firm-level Data

This article examines the impact of exchange rate changes on Chinese firms’ decisions on export market entry and export share. Using a large dataset for Chinese firms in 2000–2006, we find that changes in exchange rate levels play a significant role on both export extensive and intensive margins of Chinese firms. Compared to studies using macro data, our firm-level analysis allows us to control for firm and industry heterogeneity. Firm size and location matter. We do not find a difference between foreign and domestic firms in responding to exchange rate changes. Industry heterogeneity is also found to be important.     

Do Survey Spot-Check and Threat Improve Data Quality? Evidence from a Field Experiment

In this study, we examine the effect of interview observation on data quality of a large-scale individual survey in Vietnam. External spot-check teams were sent to randomly selected enumeration areas to attend and observe survey training courses and field interviews of interviewers. We find that interviewers have a lower number of item non-responses in collected data when being observed by the spot-check teams. The effect of a spot-check of field interviews appears to be higher than the effect of a spot-check of training courses. However, we do not find a significant effect of a spot-check threat: informing interviewers of a possible spot-check without actually visiting does not reduce item non-responses.     

Are Survey Measures of Trust Correlated with Experimental Trust? Evidence from Cameroon

In less developed countries, there is often a low correlation between survey-based measures of interpersonal trust and experimental measures. This has caused doubt about the reliability of trust measures used to explain variations in levels of socio-economic development. Using data from rural Cameroon, we explore whether the correlation between survey and experimental trust depends on social distance, and on whether the survey questions are context-specific. We find a high correlation in all cases. However, correlations with survey trustworthiness do depend on social distance.     

How Accurate is Food-for-Work Self-Targeting in the Presence of Imperfect Factor Markets? Evidence from Ethiopia

Effective targeting of transfers is a key issue in public policy to combat poverty. Much faith is presently placed in self-targeting mechanisms such as public employment schemes supported by food-for-work transfers. Where targeting errors have been observed, these are usually attributed to mismanagement of key operational details, such as the project's wage rate. Using a unique data set from rural Ethiopia, we demonstrate that targeting errors may also have structural causes in some low-income countries. We hypothesise that imperfect factor markets generate a predictable dispersion across households in reservation wage rates that breaks down the unconditionally positive relation between income and shadow wages on which the theory of self-targeting public employment programmes rests. Our results confirm that the inaccuracy of FFW targeting stems from the fact that, in rural Ethiopia, higher income households are endowed with more labour per unit of land or animal. Due to poor factor markets in land and livestock these labour-abundant households have lower marginal labour productivity on farm, thereby depressing the reservation wage rates they find acceptable for FFW participation.     

The Effects of Ethnic Chinese Minority on Vietnam’s Regional Economic Development in the Post-Vietnam War Period

This paper examines the impact of the Hoa, an ethnically Chinese, economically dominant minority, on regional economic development in Vietnam. To address the endogeneity of the geographical distribution of the Hoa, we use an important historical episode: the rapid deterioration in Sino-Vietnamese diplomatic relationship that led many ethnic Chinese to flee abroad, particularly to the refugee camps in the Guangxi province of China, in 1979. We find that the effects of proximity to the refugee camps on the share of ethnic Chinese in 1989 were more pronounced for provinces that had a larger presence of the ethnic Chinese population in 1979. We also find strong correlations between the 1989 share of ethnic Chinese (instrumented) and contemporary indicators of economic performance. The results suggest that the ethnic Chinese minority had positive economic impacts on Vietnam’s regional economies and that the post-Vietnam War exodus of ethnic Chinese was likely to have had long-term negative economic impacts.     

Does Land Fragmentation Increase the Cost of Cultivation? Evidence from India

To appreciate overall impacts of fragmentation, underlying channels, and potential heterogeneity by holding size, we distinguish average fragment size and mean inter-fragment distance as two aspects of this phenomenon. Estimating a cost function with associated input demand equations on a large nationally representative Indian survey, robust to endogeneity, suggests that fragmentation’s main impact is to reduce mean plot size below the threshold for mechanisation. Higher inter-fragment distances increase costs for larger holdings, but by a much smaller magnitude. Implications as to when programmes to consolidate holdings may make sense and ways to ensure their sustainability are discussed.     

How Important is the Capacity of Local Governments for Improvements in Welfare? Evidence from Decentralised Uganda

Decentralisation is often claimed to be effective for improvements in welfare and hence the reduction of poverty but empirical evidence is scarce. This paper seeks to gain further insights into the relationship between decentralisation and welfare by investigating the role of local governments' capacity for household consumption and school enrolment in Uganda. Using household survey data, it finds suggestive evidence that both household consumption and school enrolment are positively related with the level of capacity of district governments.     

Bureaucracy,Post-Bureaucracy,or Anarchy? Evidence from the Italian Public Administration

The aim of this study is to investigate whether the features characterizing the modern public administrations, their organizational models, and the activities carried out, are still rooted in the old bureaucratic approach. The research gathered data from a questionnaire administered to 156 Italian public officers, employees, and managers. The analysis consists of a correlation test and a regression test to verify the hypotheses related to the aim of the study. The research shows that, despite the changes driven by NPM reforms, the Italian Public Administration is still linked to a bureaucratic model. Findings also show that Italian public servants are highly motivated despite the activities they carry out are strongly standardized. Additionally, it clearly emerges that in some cases Italian public administrations are perceived by their employees as pervaded by anarchy. The article has both interesting academic and practical implications for the management of public administrations.