Beyond Semi‐sovereignty: The new Germany in the new Europe

Semi‐sovereignty was identified by Peter Katzenstein as an external condition of West German Politics. Semi‐sovereignty persists as an internal condition of the new German state, but externally Germany is less semi‐sovereign as a result of the disappearance of external restrictions and its increasing economic and political power which is now allied to its greater freedom of manoeuvre in the security area. While less semi‐sovereign in objective terms than before unity, it is argued that the political elite in Germany will continue to be multilateralists and to eschew the adoption of a national interest discourse.     

Risk vs Reward Strategies in Indirect Presidential Elections: Political Parties and the Selection of Presidential Electors in Germany, 1949–2017

Parties across parliamentary republics compete fiercely over capturing the presidential office. However, they are often torn between seeing their preferred candidate elected and exploiting the election for publicity purposes. The German case, specifically parties’ ability to nominate extra-parliamentarian electors (EPEs) as part of the electoral college, offers a particularly interesting perspective on how parties balance these competing goals. While EPEs allow parties to boost their profile and strengthen ties with selected groups, they also present a risk factor as their voting behaviour is more difficult to predict. Based on a novel data set on party delegations in German presidential elections, 1949–2017, the analysis shows that – contrary to traditional assumptions – competition in the electoral college did not play a role in EPE nominations. Rather, party strategies were influenced by the varying signalling power of the elections. Parties were more risk-averse and nominated fewer EPEs during grand coalitions, when they were part of the federal government, or when federal elections approached, yet nominated more EPEs when they had a larger support base to reward. The results call for further comparative research on indirect elections and different types of EPEs in Germany.     

Age,Period and Cohort Effects in the Decline of Party Identification in Germany: An Analysis of a Two Decade Panel Study in Germany (1992–2009)

Party identification traditionally is seen as an important linkage mechanism, connecting voters to the party system. Previous analyses have suggested that the level of party identity is in decline in Germany, and this article first expands previous observations with more recent data. These suggest that the erosion of party identity continues up to the present time. An age–period–cohort analysis of the panel data of the SOEP panel suggests that period effects are significantly negative. Furthermore, it can be observed that throughout the 1992–2009 observation period, education level and political interest have become more important determinants of party identity. Contrary to some of the literature, therefore, it can be shown that the loss of party identity is concentrated among groups with lower levels of political sophistication, indicating that the socio-economic profile of the group with a sense of party identification has become more distinct compared to the population as a whole. In the discussion, we investigate the theoretical and democratic consequences of this trend.     

Beyond Copenhagen: The Political Economy of Securitising “Outside Influences” in Bali

Securitisation theory has contributed greatly to critical security studies. However, the Copenhagen School’s focus on discursive analysis fails to answer the “so what” question of why issues are securitised and for whose benefit. This article contends that more nuanced explanations can be provided by taking seriously the political economy context within which the process of securitisation is embedded. The article has two aims. First, it contributes to further refining securitisation theory by embedding Balzacq’s pragmatic act – which implies that securitising actors gain the assent of an audience based on a shared view of vulnerabilities – within a broad social conflict analysis. This latter can explain the socio-political struggles that create popular support for securitisation, and what social groups benefit from it. Second, it contributes to explanations of Bali’s contemporary political economy by operationalising the refined approach to explain how struggles over the spoils of tourism have created a receptive audience among a cross-class section of Balinese for the securitisation of “outside influences” – a euphemism for migrants, non-local investors and Western cultural influences. Securitisation has resulted in conservative elite groups marginalising progressive voices; “traditional” institutions being favoured in accessing state resources; and in a policing landscape in which migrants are harassed and exploited.     

Federal-level Government Participation and State-level Electoral Performance: A Party-based Analysis of Land Elections in Germany, 1949–2017

To what extent does the federal political arena contaminate the regional one in Germany? Does a party’s position as government or opposition on the federal level have a systematic impact on its performance in Land elections? Land elections are often characterised as second order elections, but existing empirical studies that use real election data suffer from important methodological problems. Unlike previous approaches using survey data or comparing vote shares in regional and federal elections, we analyse contamination in two ways. First, we test whether a party’s role at the federal level has a systematic impact on gaining or losing office at the Land level. Second, we examine the vote difference of parties relative to their result in the previous election in the Land. Drawing on a complete dataset of all Land elections from 1949 to 2017, we find confirmation for two phenomena well known in comparative electoral studies. First, the anti-incumbency effect: government parties tend to lose votes. In the German context, as in many other multilevel systems, this is exacerbated by the second effect: contamination. Gaining power or votes on the Land level is very difficult when a party is in government on the federal level.     

Allende in Athens: The Political and Cultural Impact of the Chilean 1970s in Greece during the Colonels' Dictatorship and the Metapolitefsi (1970–1981)

This article discusses how Greeks perceived Salvador Allende's overthrow, Pinochet's military dictatorship, and US interventionism in Chile. By the end of Greece's dictatorship (1967–1974), left-wing militants emotionally identified with the ‘Chilean tragedy’ through their own experiences of military authoritarianism. Indeed, the Greek Colonels' Junta amplified the 1973 Chilean coup's local impact. Subsequently, during the early Metapolitefsi period (1974–1981), a wide variety of Greek political, social, and cultural actors used the Chilean 1970s as a key reference in the crucial debates that ultimately redefined Greece's collective political and cultural identities.     

Toga Party: The Political Basis of Judicial Investigations against MPs in Italy (1983–2013)

Scholars agree that ideology affects judicial decision-making. We demonstrate that this proposition holds true even when the judiciary is independent of political control. Focusing on Italy (1983–2013), where the politicisation of the judiciary was an issue well before the entry of Berlusconi into politics, we estimate judicial orientations according to the support for factions within the National Judiciary Association. The results show that ideology affects trial court activity against deputies. As the support for left-wing factions increases, prosecutors are more likely to investigate right-wing parties. Conversely, as the share of right-leaning factions grows, investigations of moderate or rightist parties decrease.     

The Limits of the State: Student Protest in Egypt,Iraq and Turkey, 1948–63

Student youth have been at the centre of social and political unrest in the Middle East since the era of reforms under the Ottoman Empire. However, although nationalist and revolutionary leaders encouraged students to actively participate in politics ‘for the sake of the nation’ during the first half of the twentieth century, revolutionary regimes progressively sought to ‘depoliticise’ them, once again ‘for the sake of the nation’, throughout the second half of the century. This article explores both dynamics while seeking to account for the failure of attempts to depoliticise the student body ‘from above’ in Egypt, Iraq and Turkey between 1948 and 1963.     

Germany in Europe: return of the nightmare or towards an engaged Germany in a new Europe?

Especially since (re-)unification, perceptions of Germany alternate between the fear of the return of the German hegemon and – at the same time – the diametrically opposed call for more German leadership based on Germany's outstanding pro-European engagement. Nonetheless, Germany's foreign policy has changed little since 1989: it is still cautious rather than assertive. Due to Germany's experience with the two world wars, German foreign policy places great value on the enlargement as well as the deepening of the EU. In sum, Germany can best be characterised as a normal and engaged European state.     

Sheikh Muhammad Abu Zahra (1898–1974) on international relations: the discourse of a contemporary mainstream Islamist

The literature on Political Islam has not devoted ample space to the intellectual contributions of contemporary moderate Islamists. This article attempts to rectify this by examining the international relations discourse of a twentieth-century Egyptian religious scholar: Sheikh Muhammad Abu Zahra. Despite Abu Zahra's prominence in the Islamic world, his writings have received scant attention from academics. The article provides a close reading of his three principal works on international relations: al-?Alaqat al-Duwaliyya fi al-Islam, Nazhariyat al-Harb fi al-Islam and al-Wihda al-Islamiyya; as well as a fourth work with a significant bearing on the subject: al-Mujtama? al-Insani fi Dhil al-Islam. It contends that Abu Zahra's international relations discourse is part of a more than a century-old tradition of theorizing on international relations that dates back to the religious reformers Jamal al-Din al-Afghani and Muhammad Abdu. Accordingly, Abu Zahra is treated here as an exemplar of what I refer to as the moderate and reformist school in contemporary Islam, in contradistinction to the radical school that is associated with salafi-jihadist figures and movements. A close analysis of Abu Zahra's international relations discourse thus provides penetrating insights on one pivotal, albeit understudied, dimension of this reformist/moderate current in contemporary Islam: its perspectives on international relations.     

Dancing with the Wolf: Securitizing China–Taiwan Trade in the ECFA Debate and Beyond

ABSTRACT

Since Ma Ying-Jeou assumed presidency in 2008, he promoted an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) and Taiwan’s political rapprochement with China. However, the opposition party soon proposed a counter argument, claiming this agreement might produce severe negative consequences for Taiwan’s economy and sovereignty.

This study presents a securitization framework to highlight both the KMT and DPP strategy in contesting the nature of ECFA despite the potential inflation of benefit. It investigates both the KMT and DPP securitization strategies under Taiwan’s political and economic contexts. A de-securitizing discourse, though might have been a convincing counterargument against ECFA, was underdeveloped by the DPP members. It also shows how the debate shapes the discourse in the Sunflower Student Movements in 2014, and led to the DPP’s subsequent change of securitization strategy.     

The Patterns of Syrian Uprising: Comparing Hama in 1980–1982 and Homs in 2011

Economic grievances that marginalized rural citizens and eroded the Syrian government’s political base are widely considered to have sparked the 2011 uprising. Although the country’s 1980–1982 protests were also blamed on economic factors, commentators to date have largely resisted comparing the events. This article draws parallels between Hama in the lead-up to 1980–1982 and Homs pre-2011, arguing that while there are differences between the uprisings—including the socioeconomic group involved—the root causes of grievance were remarkably similar. Both uprisings followed a redrawing of Syria’s social contract that marginalized a group that had previously had a stake in the Syrian state. In both cases, a new underclass was formed that became the backbone of the political unrest. Although economic factors cannot explain the 2011 uprising in its entirety, this article argues that some of the seed dynamics in 2011 were remarkably similar to 1980–1982.     

The Rise and Fall of Hasan Abdallah al-Turabi: A Unique Chapter in Sudan's Political History (1989–99)

Since its independence in 1956 until September-October 2013, at the completion of this study, Sudan has had seven civilian or military regimes. All of them, excluding the military regime headed by General Abd al-Rahman Muhammad Hasan Siwar al-Dahab (1985–86) and the current Bashir regime, were overthrown. These regimes focused only on remaining in power and did little to relieve Sudan's desperate hardships. This study, which surveys the decade (1989–99) under the two-headed leadership of Bashir and Turabi, will explore the truth of this claim. The Bashir-Turabi regime marked a unique and important chapter in Sudan's political history and had crucial ramifications for Sudan's politics in the twenty-first century.     

Construction of Gender and National Identity in Turkey: Images of the First Lady in the Turkish Media (2002–7)

This article analyses the conception of womanhood and nationhood in Turkey through images of the First Lady in the media. It demonstrates that while there is a struggle between the secularist and Islamist media on issues such as Turkish national identity and public visibility, the secularist and Islamist discourses overlap when it comes to gender roles. In both cases, the private sphere is designated as the primary domain of women and the agency of women in the public sphere is limited by the symbolic duties they are expected to perform in accordance with the national imaginary.     

Monitoring the rise of a radical force: the British Embassy in Athens and the Ascent of the Greek Panhellenic Socialist Movement, 1974–1981*

The article deals with perceptions, conceptions and policy implementation of British diplomacy towards the Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) from its formation in 1974 until its first rise into power in 1981. PASOK, a political movement that was to dominate Greek politics for more than twenty years, entered the Greek political scene as a new, radical force that threatened Western values and interests and aspired to reshape the international orientation of the country, in a period of high Cold War tensions. It will be shown that British diplomacy, despite its opposition to PASOK, was forced by political realities to modify its policy significantly, in order to accommodate PASOK and preserve its interests in a country that was considered as a vital ally of the Western world.     

From Positive Neutrality to Partisanship: How and Why the Armenian Political Parties Took Sides in Lebanese Politics in the Post-Taif Period (1989–Present)

This article examines the policy of the Armenian political parties in Lebanon in light of the Taif agreement in 1989 that ended the Lebanese civil war and granted the Armenian community more political rights. The Armenian parties (Dashnak, Hunchak and Ramgavar) in the post-Taif period were obliged to abandon the policy of positive neutrality that they adopted from 1975 to 1989, and took sides with various Lebanese parties to protect the communal interests that the consociational structure of the state had allowed them. However, the Armenian parties were not united over the goal of maintaining the Armenian bloc inside parliament. As they chose different policies to pursue communal interests they took sides with the ruling majority and the anti-government opposition. The Armenians were criticized by some Christian politicians for their partisanship and were expected to maintain their traditional neutrality in Lebanese politics. It is very likely that the Armenians will return to their neutral policy and support the President and the government once their group rights are protected.