The interpretation of refractive index measurements. III

The question of whether or not to group recovered glass fragments before comparison with a control sample is fundamental to the interpretation of refractive index measurements. A computer program has been written to perform the grouping and explore the consequences. Grouping the fragments is shown to increase the chances of finding all recovered fragments similar when they have in fact come from the same source as the control, and to give enhanced discrimination when the recovered glass has come from a different source. When the recovered fragments have come from two different sources the consequences of the grouping procedure are preferable to non-grouping.     

The interpretation of refractive index measurements V.

An approach to the interpretation of glass refractive index measurements in forensic science casework which has been developed in four previous papers is extended to deal with the calculation of coincidence probabilities in cases which involve multiple control and recovered samples. Examples of the calculations are given and there is a discussion of the possible limitations of the method.     

The statistical interpretation of refractive index measurements II: The multiple source problem

The method proposed by Grove [1] for comparing measurements made on control and recovered fragments is extended to deal with the possibility that the recovered fragments may originally have come from more than one source. The cases of two and four recovered fragments are examined in detail. Simulation results are given which show that the discriminatory power of the method varies with the number of sources and with the distribution of the fragments over those sources. It is greatest when the recovered fragments come from one source.     

The use of interference filters in refractive index measurements

Interference filters were investigated as alternatives to sodium vapour lamps to establish their suitability for making refractive index measurements using a hot stage microscope. It was found that variations in the characteristics of filters and in their method of mounting could give rise to systematic errors unless adequate precautions were taken.     

The effect of annealing on the variation of glass refractive index

The variation of refractive index (RI) over a non-toughened, float pane of glass and a toughened, float pane of glass was investigated. The two panes of colourless, float glass were cut into 150 5 cm × 5 cm squares. The pre- and post-annealing RI values from three random areas from each square were measured. Bayesian statistical hierarchical modelling of the results showed that for the non-toughened, float glass pane annealing increased the variability in RI by a factor of 1.29-1.58, with a mean of 1.43 (with 95% probability); and for the toughened, float pane of glass annealing decreased the variability in RI by a factor of 0.63-0.76, with a mean of 0.69 (with 95% probability). In addition it was found that although there were no systematic differences in ΔRI across either pane of glass, there were observable differences across both panes of glass. These results provide information regarding the expected RI variation over entire panes of both non-toughened and toughened float window glass for both pre- and post-annealing RI measurements.     

Spatial variation of refractive index in a pane of float glass.

In the statistical interpretation of forensic glass evidence it is standard practice to make the assumption of homogeneity of the refractive index (RI) of the source glass, or of localized homogeneity. However, the work of Locke and Hayes showed that, for toughened windscreen glass, this assumption might not be true. This work is well cited, but there appears to have been little follow-on published research. Furthermore, the toughening process is something known to affect the refractive index, and is a process that float glass does not undergo. Float glass is a major component of casework in New Zealand and for that reason it would be interesting to know whether the findings of Locke and Hayes apply when dealing with float glass. In this paper we describe an experiment similar to that of Locke and Hayes, systematically examining the variation of RI in a pane of float window glass. It was found that, although there were no systematic differences in refractive index, there were observable differences across the pane.     

玻璃折射率数据处理方法初探

目的探讨玻璃折射率数据处理方法。方法将案件中收集到的45个玻璃样品和同一个车灯不同部位的45块玻璃样品进行折射率测定。用独立样本Student’st检验、welch检验以及方差分析（ANOVA）对数据进行成对检验。结果方差分析法中Dunnett’s C法处理玻璃折射率数据,有效控制了第一类和第二类错误。当α=0．05时,犯第一类错误的概率约为4．44％,犯第二类错误的概率约为3．54％。     

The interpretation of elemental composition measurements from forensic glass evidence III

In this paper we introduce a permutation testing approach to the interpretation of evidence which consists of elemental composition measurements, with glass evidence as an example. This work extends previous work of Curran et al. [J.M. Curran, C.M. Triggs, J.R. Almirall, J.S. Buckleton and K.A.J. Walsh, The interpretation of elemental composition measurements from forensic glass evidence, Science and Justice 37 (1997) 241–244.] and shows how we may remove some of the constraints that limited the applicability of the previous results. We provide the reader with tools for evidence pre-screening that may aid in the direction of further analyses of the data, rather than for the presentation of evidence interpretation in a court case.     

The use of melting point and refractive index determination to compare colourless polyester fibres

The incidence of polyesters encountered in forensic fibre examinations continues to increase. To meet different consumer needs such fibres can be subjected to many physical and chemical variations during production. Some of these variations are discussed. Accurate comparison of these fibres presents a particular problem to the forensic scientist. Melting point and refractive index determinations were made on various samples of colourless polyesters provided by different manufacturers to assess the comparative value of such information and to find out the possibility of relating it to modifications of the basic polymer. Melting points alone were found to be of little comparative value, but determination of both refractive indices n_∥ and n_⊥ does allow discrimination between samples. Consideration of both melting point and refractive index together may help to provide an insight into polymer variation, though this remains somewhat speculative.     

汽车风挡玻璃的鉴别方法研究

目的研究油浸法和X射线荧光光谱法对汽车风挡玻璃的鉴别能力。方法应用油浸法对30个风挡玻璃样品进行折射率测试，并将所得数据进行t检验分析。对不能区分的样品再用X射线荧光光谱进行元素成分分析。结果30个样品共组成的435对中，折射率t检验在置信度959／5时区分427对，其余8对通过元素成分实现区分。结论折射率测试和元素分析相结合，可对常见汽车风挡玻璃进行有效区分。     

Evaluation of match criteria used for the comparison of refractive index of glass fragments

For comparative glass examinations, the refractive indices (RIs) of recovered glass fragments are often compared to a test interval defined by measurements from a broken glass object. RI measurements from five modern float glasses were used via resampling to assess the frequencies of false exclusion errors for eight test criteria as functions of the number of measurements. The test criteria were based on ranges, fixed intervals, and multiples of standard deviations of the known source measurements. The observed error rates for the eight tests studied are between zero and c. 35%, depending upon the match criteria, the number of measurements, and the RI distribution for a glass source. The results of this study can be used to predict the false exclusion rate for a test criterion under a given set of conditions or to select test criteria that result in a desired error rate for these typical sheet glasses.     

The effect of re-annealing on the distribution of refractive index in a windscreen and a windowpane classification of glass samples

Tiny glass fragments of two typical objects being of interest in forensic investigations: car windscreen and windowpane were examined from the point of view of their importance as crime evidence. Both examined objects were made from float glass and were toughened. The present paper concerns examination of refractive index distribution across the objects under investigation before and after the glass fragments were annealed according to previously chosen procedure. The annealing procedure was carried out in order to increase discrimination power of refractive index (RI). The following conclusions can be drawn from the results obtained. For both examined objects the mean RI was significantly higher after annealing and, at the same time, standard deviations in RI were smaller. The distributions of RI for both examined objects appeared not to be normal; the deviations from normality were observed at both sides of RI distributions. It was found that the difference in the values DeltaRI (difference between mean values of RI after annealing and before annealing) for both examined object was not significant and thus it would be not a good parameter to differentiate between two heat strengthen objects. The attempt to classify 181 glass samples on the basis of theirs RI and DeltaRI was performed. Increased discrimination of glass samples was observed.     

Application of false discovery rate procedure to pairwise comparisons of refractive index of glass fragments

This study was undertaken to apply a new method of controlling type I error when performing pairwise comparisons. The Benjamini and Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) controlling procedures have proved to be very powerful tools in solving many practical problems but have not yet been applied to pairwise comparisons of refractive index of glass samples. Students t-test and Welch test (unequal variance Student's t-test) were applied to all possible pairwise comparisons. The comparisons were made on the basis of refractive index values of 72 glass fragments from different car windows and 69 different fragments from one windscreen. The type I error was controlled by the use of Benjamini and Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR) controlling procedure. To illustrate the importance of controlling type I error when using pairwise comparisons, results of pairwise comparisons with the FDR controlling procedure were compared to those comparisons made without any controlling procedure. Significantly fewer false negative results (false rejection of H0) were found during the use of FDR procedure in the comparison of refractive indices from the same windscreen than when comparing without controlling type I error. The results of application of FDR method were also compared to the results of other post-hoc tests, such as Tukey HSD test and Bonfferoni test. The FDR method has higher power than Bonferroni method and Tukey HSD method and control errors better than comparing without controlling type I error. The method of choice, for pairwise comparison of glass fragments on the basis of refractive index is Welch test with FDR adjustment. The method gave type I errors at level about 5.3% and type II error at about 3.7%.     

油浸法测定玻璃折射率的不确定度评定

目的建立油浸法测定玻璃折射率不确定度的评定方法。方法按照不确定度的A类和B类评定方法,对未知玻璃折射率测定过程中不确定度分量进行计算,最终确定扩展部不确定度。结果油浸法测定玻璃折射率的扩展不确定度约为4×10-5。结论根据不确定度计算出来的折射率的变化范围与实际分析中折射率的变化范围完全吻合。     

An investigation into the relationship between edge counts and the variability of the refractive index of glass. Part I: Edge morphology

The effect of glass fragment morphology on the variability of refractive index values in five different glass objects was investigated. Data are presented that suggest that the variability of refractive index values is increased when fragment edge morphology becomes unsuitable for phase contrast microscopy.     

The interpretation of shoeprint comparison class correspondences

The underlying principles involved in the interpretation of shoeprint comparisons have become a topical subject due to criticisms in the 2009 National Academy of Science (NAS) report on forensic sciences [1]. Difficulties in the application and understanding of these principles were also highlighted in a recent court ruling [2–5]. We report here a survey that may inform some aspects of this interpretation and discuss the implications of findings from this survey in the light of that court ruling and more importantly the NAS report.Five hundred shoeprints taken from student volunteers in Auckland, New Zealand were compared against each other for the presence of any pattern correspondences. Comparisons were undertaken of the full outsole and of smaller portions of the more common patterns.Of the 500 shoe impressions collected 488 (97.6%) were ultimately represented only once in the survey. The greatest number of corresponding patterns was for the most common brand of shoe (Converse Chuck Taylor All Star) and occurred in 3 of 500 observations. No instances of an imitation brand matching the authentic brand were found. Smaller sections of the common patterns showed a greater number of corresponding prints. However, the greatest number of matching partial patterns was again for the most common brand of shoe (Converse Chuck Taylor All Star) and occurred in 29 of 500 observations.We conclude that pattern match alone is of considerable evidential value even when the print is partial.     

Medicare program; establishment of the Medicare Advantage Program; interpretation. Final rule; interpretation

This final rule clarifies our interpretation of the meaning of "entity" in the final rule titled "Medicare Program; Establishment of the Medicare Advantage Program" published in the Federal Register on January 28, 2005 (70 FR 4588). Subsequent to the publication of the Medicare Advantage (MA) final rule on January 28, 2005, we have received inquiries from parties interested in offering an MA Regional Plan concerning whether they could jointly enter into a contract with us to offer a single MA Regional Plan in a multistate region. The participating health plans wish to contract with each other to create a single "joint enterprise." They have asked us whether such a joint enterprise could be considered an "entity" under sections 1859(a)(1)and 1855(a)(1) of the Social Security Act, for purposes of offering an MA Regional Plan. The MA final rule is scheduled to take effect on March 22, 2005. Our interpretation of the word "entity" that follows in the "Supplementary Information" section of this final rule is deemed to be included in that final rule.