Seeking a New Role: Japan’s Middle East Policy under Shinzo Abe

With his frequent travels to the Middle East, more than all other Japanese leaders in the past, Shinzo Abe had been destined to ineluctably play a distinctive role in redefining his country’s foreign policy approach toward the region. Essentially, when Abe returned to power for a second time in late 2012, he succeeded to subsequently establish a relatively stable and long-term government which strived to critically reappraise some highly contentious elements of Japan’s internal and external policies. Reassessing Japan’s conventional low-profile orientation to the Middle East was particularly a major objective of the Abe government because the region had turned out to be closely and dubiously connected to some pivotal political and security reforms which Abe had long pursued to achieve domestically. By primarily doubling down Japan’s political engagement in different parts of the Middle East, therefore, Abe took advantage of what his country had capitalized in the region in more recent times to especially accelerate the accomplishment of some other political and security he favored ardently.     

The Limits of International Society: Understanding China’s Response to Nuclear Breakout and Third Party Non-Compliance

Abstract

Despite warnings of unchecked nuclear proliferation and the potential for state-sponsored WMD terrorism, official statements and consistent diplomatic activities show that China remains resolutely committed to a patient and peaceful strategy for dealing with third-party non-compliance and nuclear breakout. Although it has adopted more stringent national controls and has signed up to an ever-increasing array of international non-proliferation agreements, China prevents the decisive application of the enforcement mechanisms available to the UN Security Council, and is highly critical of non-proliferation initiatives that attempt to bypass these mechanisms. To put it another way, China is resolutely opposed to nuclear non-proliferation with teeth, preferring to keep the regime muzzled. This article examines the rationale behind China’s approach to this issue, drawing on the English School’s interlinking concepts of international system, international society, and global society to help explain China’s advocacy of peaceful non-proliferation and the resulting tensions in its relationship with the United States and other parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).     

Japan’s Policy Toward China Under Strong Anti-Chinese Sentiment: A Case of Terminating Yen Loans to China

2004 was the year when the Japanese public's affinity with China dropped dramatically, to 37.6?%, due to anti-Japan riots in China. Now more than 70?% of the Japanese public does not feel an affinity with China. How could such a strong anti-Chinese sentiment influence Japan's policy toward China? This paper considers this question by examining Japan's decision-making process on terminating the much-criticized yen loans to China. Yen loans are a type of Official Development Assistance (ODA) provided by the Japanese government to countries lacking sufficient funds for economic development. China is one of the top yen loan borrowers, and the loans have contributed to China's economic growth and increasing openness. However, in March 2005, Japanese Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura told Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing that Japan intended to phase out the yen loans before the 2008 Beijing Olympics and reached an agreement on the matter. Two-and-a-half years later, Japan terminated its yen loans to China, as the foreign ministers had agreed. Through mainly firsthand documents and interviews with government officials, this paper will clarify the following two points: (1) While it is true that the Japanese government significantly reduced its yen loan package to China from 2001 onward due to domestic criticism of China, as pointed out by previous studies, it was not planning to terminate the yen loans as of summer 2004. Instead, the Japanese government was contemplating how to keep providing yen loans to China; (2) Foreign Minister Nobutaka Machimura, who was appointed in September 2004, had pushed for the termination of yen loans to China only after anti-Chinese sentiment rose dramatically in summer 2004, because he felt that continuing the much-criticized yen loans would not benefit stable Japan-China relations. This paper sheds light on the background of the termination of yen loans to China, a major milestone in postwar Japan-China relations that had been unclear until now. Having said this, the more important point of this paper may be that it also shows the influence of strong anti-Chinese sentiment on Japan's policies toward China.     

A “Proactive Contribution to Peace” and the Right of Collective Self-Defense: The Development of Security Policy in the Abe Administration

Since the inauguration of the second Abe cabinet in December 2012, there have been many important developments in the area of security policy. This article examines each new policy and how it fits in to the National Security Strategy principles of a “proactive contribution to peace” and international cooperation. It concludes with a comparison of the new policies with those of other major world powers and a discussion of the main source of opposition to Japan's security policy.     

The New Geo-Economics of a “Rising” India: State Transformation and the Recasting of Foreign Policy

With a focus on India, and drawing on critical scholarship on geo-politics and geo-economics and “relational” state theories, this article examines the ways in which ideational and material processes of state transformation have shaped India’s international engagement in different periods. Prior to 1991, geo-political social forms linked to a national developmentalist state project shaped India’s engagement with global and regional multilateralism and the nature of this engagement fluctuated according to shifts in the legitimacy and viability of this state project. The erosion of the developmentalist state project from the 1970s laid the path for a deeper shift in the national social order in the 1990s with the recasting of statehood wherein India’s future was thought to be best secured through policies of economic openness, growth and competitiveness. This shift in India’s state project has given rise to new forms of global and regional engagement that are distinct to older forms of international engagement and reflect and further processes of state transformation in India. This is illustrated through a case study on energy policy.     

Establishing a Social-Darwinist Mentality in Japan’s Paternalist State: The Potential of Resistance by a Counter-Public

ABSTRACT

From a historical perspective, the welfare net in Japan was established from above without democratic participation and expanded only slowly. This expansion in many cases was aimed at enhancing national cohesion, especially during war time. During the current neoliberal era, Japan’s paternalistic welfare state has been able to put into practice the dismantling of national pension and health-care systems without the need for any theoretical re-orientation. In response, counter-publics have engaged in protest and resistance. By doing so, the victims of modernization and those who are socially weak and disadvantaged in multiple ways are able to regain their self-esteem and personal integrity.     

The Trump Administration and Japan: Challenges and Visions for Japan’s Foreign and Security Policy in the New Era

It is possible that Donald Trump’s success in the US presidential election of November 2016 will touch off the greatest transformation in world politics since World War Two. This is because, for the first time, the presidency of the United States—a country that since World War Two has consistently upheld the liberal world order—has been won by a man who asserts that the US national interests will take precedence over international cooperation.

If so, Japan could be one of the most profoundly affected countries. Japan has thus far accepted its status as a junior partner within the US security framework and—without any significant military power of its own—has devoted itself to economic development.

Although it is difficult to predict what Mr. Trump’s policies will be, there is a possibility, based on the statements he has made to date, that he will be calling for Japan to become more self-reliant. Although his comprehension of the Japan-US security arrangements is fraught with misconceptions, there is ample possibility that he will ultimately opt to maintain the current Japan-US security framework. However, given that the average defense expenditure of NATO countries is 2% of their GDPs, and that the average expenditure of OECD countries on official development assistance (ODA) is 0.7% of their GDPs, it is highly questionable whether Mr. Trump will approve of Japan’s level of defense spending (less than 1% of its GDP) or of its level of spending on ODA (approximately 0.2% of its GDP).

It would not be such a bad thing for Japan to become more self-reliant in terms of security. It is almost unnatural for Japan to maintain this relationship as it is, in the form that it has taken since before Japan’s postwar reconstruction. However, in the context of international relations in East Asia, it has long been taken for granted that this is Japan’s basic stance. Changing this will be no easy task—either domestically or in terms of Japan’s relations with neighboring countries.

In these respects, the authors of this paper decided to consider the question of how Japan should develop its foreign and security policy, and to offer some proposals in this regard.     

Russia's “turn to the east”: a study in policy making

Russia's recent reorientation “to the East” has gained increased urgency given events in Ukraine. Here the policymaking process surrounding the “turn to the East” is examined. The focus is on the economic dimension – the economic development of the Russian Far East and engagement with the Asia-Pacific region – rather than geostrategic and security issues. Policymaking is evaluated in terms of general approach and process, with the implications of the evaluation for Russian policymaking more generally then being explored. “Turn to the East” policymaking exhibits a strong commitment to strategic planning that is characteristic of Putin, and which in this case struggles not only with process issues but also with contradictions within the strategy and the challenging realities of the region. Regarding process, a far more institutionalized policy process than the currently dominant personalist view would lead us to expect is found, with relevant bureaucratic and non-state actors well represented in an elaborate and relatively formal process. However a considerable weakening of sign-off procedures is noted, which has lead to policy inconsistency and indeed “policy irresponsibility” among participants. The author attributes the weakening of sign-off procedures to Putin's frustration with the gridlock tendencies of strict sign-off regimes, rather than a desire to create a personalist regime of hands-on management. This suggests that improvement of the Russian policy process requires structural and procedural change, rather than simply leadership change.     

The Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Lacks a Strong Driving Force for Building Inflation Expectations

The Bank of Japan has been failing to create the 2% inflation expectations. This article presents the author’s views about why the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing measures have not led to achievement of the inflation target of 2%, as well as on measures required to achieve the 2% inflation (and base wage increases of over 3% which is the flip side of a 2% inflation). The major points of this article are outlined below.

First, while many Japanese economists pay little attention to importance of mild inflation, the achievement of mild inflation of 2% is vital in ensuring a stable macroeconomic environment. Its achievement would enable lowering of real interest rates (i.e., reducing the real interest rate to minus 2% as against the 0% nominal interest rate) in the situation where the nominal interest rates are drifting at the lower limit against a backdrop of various economic shocks. It would also facilitate reduction in real wages against the downwardly rigid nominal wages, thereby helping companies revive their businesses, and also facilitating adjustments in the overall economy.

Second, the reasons why the current Bank of Japan’s monetary easing measures have been unsuccessful in attaining the inflation target of 2% are as follows: 1) most of the Japanese do not understand the importance of mild inflation and so the specific content of the inflation target (achieving 2% inflation and base wage increases of over 3%) is not clearly shared; 2) on top of the fact that deflation/zero inflation has become rooted in Japan’s economy over the past two decades, Japan has never adopted a monetary policy that would anchor a mild inflation expectation of 2% (until 1990, the Bank of Japan’s primary task was to be mindful of curbing the accelerating cost-push inflation associated with wage growth); and 3) the current Bank of Japan’s monetary policy lacks a strong driving force for building inflation expectations to induce a change in people’s behavior.

Third, in order to build mild inflation expectations of 2% under such circumstances, it is important that the parties concerned with employer’s associations and labor unions become fully aware of this target so that the 2% inflation and base wage increases of over 3% becomes a code of conduct. On that basis, the government and Bank of Japan need to clearly demand substantial base wage increases with concrete numerical targets combined with the achievement of mild inflation towards the goal of building inflation expectations.

Fourth, I propose as the first step that, along with the economic measures recently taken, the government and the central bank either mediate or participate in a specific attempt to build a consensus between the employer’s associations and labor unions on achieving, in a neutral manner, inflation of 2% and base wage increases of (at least) 2%. The aim is to establish an inflation of 2% and base wage increases of over 3% as a new code of conduct shared by employer’s associations and labor unions through continued labor-management agreement.

It is desirable that mild inflation is attained gradually by stimulating aggregate demand continuously, if time and cost permit and if the international environment tolerates weak yen. However, the current economic environment would not allow it and the leeway to ease monetary policy has also been limited. It is also difficult to continue to boost aggregate demand through fiscal policy in a sustained manner against a backdrop of a low birthrate and aging population. Although successful achievement of mild inflation is not a panacea for all economic problems, unless we first achieve mild inflation and restore the function of monetary policy, we will not be able to implement the subsequent structural reforms of the labor markets, etc. or fiscal consolidation, which are both painful. And thus, the long-term economic outlook of Japan is dismal. The author strongly hopes that the Abe Cabinet and Bank of Japan under the leadership of Governor Kuroda implements a drastic regime change similar to the one launched by the Roosevelt administration, overcome deflation and achieve mild inflation, restore the function of monetary policy at the earliest possible time, and get on the path to a true revitalization of the Japanese economy.     

Britain's Policy in Southern Kurdistan: The Formation and the Termination of the First Kurdish Government, 1918–1919

The end of the First World War and the defeat of the Ottoman Empire in 1918 signalled the downfall of the old order in the Middle East. The consolidation of Britain's strategic, economic and political position in that region was bound to affect Kurdistan's political future, given its determination to re-construct a new regional order. In the absence of a well-defined British policy towards Kurdistan's future certain British officials on the ground were able to play an important part in influencing the political situation in southern Kurdistan, which came under British political control. Therefore, the examination of Britain's policy on the ground through the concepts of indirect and direct control is central to any understanding of the reasons for the establishment and the subsequent termination of the first Kurdish government in the period 1918-1919.     

The 2008 Hamburg Bürgerschaftswahl: Birth of a New Coalition Formula

The Hamburg city council election (Bürgerschaftswahl) of 24 February 2008 took place against the background of conflicts within the SPD over its approach toward the Left Party following an inconclusive state election in Hessen in January. The SPD's internal turbulence stems from the breakthrough of the Left Party among electorates in western states, rendering post-election government formation more complex than ever before. The entrance of the Left Party into the Hamburg city council led to the creation of a CDU–Green coalition, the very first time such a Land government has been formed. This report provides an overview on public opinion regarding campaign issues and voting preferences, followed by discussions about the formation and possible implications of the first state-level ‘black–Green’ coalition.     

A Meiji Christian Socialist Becomes a Spokesperson for Japan: Kawakami Kiyoshi’s “Pilgrimage in the Sacred Land of Liberty”

This paper studies the life and thought of Kawakami Kiyoshi (1873–1949), a Meiji Christian socialist and prominent journalist in late 1890s Japan for the popular newspaper Yorozu chōhō (Complete morning report). Kawakami was one of the six founding members of Japan’s first but short-lived Social Democratic Party (Shakai minshutō, 1901). After the party was forced to dissolve under the Public Peace Police Law (Chian keisatsuhō, 1900) on 16 July 1901, Kawakami left for the USA to take up a postgraduate scholarship at the University of Iowa. While in the USA, he continued his career in the press, establishing himself as a well-respected international journalist. This paper focuses on his earlier thoughts, those developed during his “pilgrimage” to the USA from 1901 to 1907, during which his interests shifted from a gradual social reform to the issue of nascent anti-Japanese agitation in California and the question of Japanese immigration. During this time, he became convicted of the humanitarian ideals of Christianity and the values of sympathy and tolerance found in the chivalrous moral tradition. This journalistic period is under-explored in the literature and yet is essential in understanding Kawakami’s later role in US-Japan relations.     

Melbourne (1835–1927): The Birth of a Music City

Music heritage in cities has become a significant area of interest in the twenty-first century because it is linked to profitable music tourism and a growing cultural economy. Melbourne, the Victorian state capital, is used as a case study; in March 2013, the city was unofficially crowned Australia’s music capital because it, at the time, had the most music venues and a vibrant music economy. However, this paper argues that this identification is somewhat ahistorical for two reasons. Firstly, it leaves out the colonial and gold rush prehistory of Melbourne’s music culture. Secondly, it omits the critical recognition of Melbourne’s (and Australia’s) first international music superstar exports, such as opera diva Dame Nellie Melba (nee Helen Porter Mitchell), who was named after her home town of Melbourne, and pianist prodigy and composer Percy (Aldridge) Grainger. Drawing on a textual analysis of government policies, economic reports, and the work of historians, musicologists and journalists, this paper synergises the history of Melbourne’s music culture from its colonial beginnings in 1835, until 1927, when the city was no longer Australia’s political capital. It identifies four early stages of Melbourne’s musical development, which laid the foundations for iconic music venues, Australia’s first opera company, music entrepreneurs, and the initial nurturing of the nation’s first music superstars in Melba and Grainger.     

“Analytical Eclecticism” in Theorizing Japanese Security Policy: A Review Essay

Abstract

This review essay explores the conceptual parameters of the contemporary “Japan Rising” thesis. It stakes out the debate between three prolific scholars in the field of Japanese security affairs and considers the different analytical approaches that may be applied to understand the current evolutions in Tokyo's grand strategy. It concludes that “analytical eclecticism” in theorizing Japanese security policy is a worthwhile and necessary endeavor, one that may be further augmented by the addition of multi-sector and human security concepts.     

Still a Beacon of Human Rights? Considerations on the EU Response to the Refugee Crisis in the Mediterranean

The European Union is a political union of democracies which protects human rights and presents itself as a beacon of human rights on the global scene. This Profile reviews the measures the EU has introduced in response to the crisis and highlights the problems they pose from a human rights perspective. Overall, a set of five measures were adopted: (1) improving search and rescue missions in the Mediterranean and the Aegean in order to prevent loss of human lives at sea; (2) initiating military intervention to tackle networks of smugglers; (3) introducing resettlement and relocation quotas to alleviate pressure on the EU member states which serve as entry points (Italy, Greece and Hungary) and from the countries neighbouring Syria (primarily Turkey); (4) creating a common list of safe countries to facilitate and speed up the return of failed asylum seekers and undocumented migrants; and finally (5) strengthening cooperation with countries of origin and transit to readmit migrants and to tighten border controls. Whether the EU will be able to respond to the unfolding crisis by providing international protection to those in need while simultaneously securing its external borders will be a yardstick by which to judge its human rights commitment.     

Japan’s Bilateral FTAs: No Obstacle to Progress in the Doha Round

This paper examines Japan’s FTAs with Mexico and the Philippines in the context of parallel negotiations in the Doha Round. Although the limited results produced by these FTAs represent an inferior outcome to what might be achieved with multilateral trade liberalization, there is no evidence that these agreements have weakened the political will of Japanese export interests to push ahead with trade liberalization in the WTO or increased the leverage of protectionist interests in opposing that goal. The greatest hope for increased Japanese flexibility in WTO agricultural talks lies in accelerated reform of domestic farm policy rather than reduced emphasis on pursuit of FTAs.

“a carefully weighed plan with adequate safeguards for us”: Economic Policy and the Coordination of Australian-US Approaches to Japanese Aggression, 1939-41

The historical narrative of Australia's foreign and defence policy-making during the Pacific War tends to foreground the years 1941–42, characterising them as the turning point when the government realised that Britain alone could no longer protect Australia's regional security interests and turned to the United States of America for its salvation. This article makes a contribution to the alternative view, arguing that Australia was looking to the US well before Prime Minister John Curtin's famous “looks to America” proclamation. It does so with a focus on Australia's thinking and policy towards the engagement of the US in the years 1939-41, arguing that the coordination of its economic policy with the US, rather than seeking insight into high-level strategic planning, offered the nation the greatest opportunity to tie its security interests in the Asia-Pacific region with those of the US. In exploring the role of economic policy in Australia's preparation for war, this article offers new insight into the maturation of Australia's foreign policy apparatus.     

A Dawn of Two-Party System in Japanese Politics?: The Emergence of the Democratic Party of Japan

The long rule of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has finally ended, and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) has captured government. This article is to examine why and how that has ended and what are the major factors which have contributed to the change of government. The inability of Japanese opposition parties to capture government has been discussed for a long time. The first part of this article is to examine the strength and weakness of major structural explanations which have been discussed in existing literature. Then, the article proposes a process-level analysis which takes a synergistic effect among institution, strategy and chance seriously. The second part of the article is a short history of the emergence of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) as a ruling party. The history will start with a formation of a small political party in September 1996,and describe how a new single-member electoral system shaped the incentives of political actors, how they worked out political strategy under the new system, and how chance affect the success or failure of political strategy.