Bletchley Park and the Holocaust

A common substantive topic in intelligence studies is the analysis process. The addition of active-learning techniques to reinforce key concepts like competitive analysis, ‘wheat’ versus ‘chaff’, and the different ‘ints’ of intelligence can be an important supplement to existing teaching methods. Moreover, a deeper appreciation of the intelligence analysis process is likely to be best achieved through simulation learning. Drawing on the growing literature that recognizes active learning and simulations as important pedagogical tools, this teaching note presents an original active-learning simulation for the college-level intelligence studies classroom in which students face an analysis challenge that highlights different components of the analysis process. This simulation increases appreciation for intelligence analysis and serves as a student-friendly method for enhancing intelligence studies pedagogy.     

Cultural Theory: The Neglected Variable in the Craft of Policy Analysis

This article discusses the role of the craft of policy analysis in public policymaking and, relating to cultural theory, provides a causal explanation for differences and nuances in the craft of policy analysis. Two perspectives underlie this article: The first is the role of policy analysis in policymaking; the second concerns cultural theory and its contribution to policy analysis. While highlighting the role of culture in policy analysis, the article suggests that in order to improve policy analysis processes, policy analysis studies and policy analysis training should take into account cultural factors. Finally, in view of the scarcity of studies in this domain, this article suggests a rationale for studies that enhance the understanding of how political cultures interfere with normative policy analysis and proposes an agenda for research on policy analysis craft by cultural bias.     

Policy analysis: A conceptual base for a theory of improvement

The purpose of reason or rationality in the analysis of resource allocation decisions is to provide decision makers with guidance on policy decisions which result in improvement, i.e. a net increment in social welfare. The difficulty with what might be called the microrationality of cost-benefit analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis as conventionally practised is that unless the context of such rationality is established in the larger framework of what might in turn be called the macrorationality which reflects an awareness of the properties of the whole system, the policy analyst cannot know whether his recommendation will upgrade (constitute an improvement in) or degrade (constitute a deterioration in) the system as a whole. The paper attempts to suggest a first conceptual approach, and an implied research agenda, addressed to developing a more effective general context for policy analysis. The suggested approach has four major components; first, the establishment of the basis for policy analysis in the explicit specification of a general weighted objective function for national policy and a corresponding set of functions for particular programs and projects; second, the development and incorporation in cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis of a set of analytical parameters which establish the basis for policy analyses which are in the first instance comparable, and in the second instance consistent with the national objective function; third, the development of a general analytical framework for cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis which recognizes the essential interdependency of policy decisions, including the financing implications of expenditure policies; and, finally, the explicit recognition of the need for a criterion of overall system improvement in the development of an analytical framework for the measurement of the trades-off or opportunity costs between alternative policy mixes.     

The paradox of policy analysis: If it is not used,why do we produce so much of it?

This article explores the apparent paradox that our society invests heavily in policy analysis when empirical studies, political science theory, and common wisdom all suggest that analysis is not used by policymakers to make better policy decisions. It offers a critique of the traditional view of policy analysis and presents an alternative view derived from contemporary literature on the policy process and decisionmaking. The alternative view suggests that there are legitimate uses for analysis other than the problem‐solving use originally envisioned but apparently rarely attained. The two views imply different patterns of use of analysis by legislative committees—a contrast that I subject to an empirical test. An examination of quantitative data on policy analysis use by congressional committees from 1985 to 1994 lends support for the alternative view. The research has two implications. First, despite its scientific origins, policy analysis may be a more effective instrument of the democratic process than of the problem‐solving process. Second, the profession of policy analysis may be in better shape than many who are calling for fundamental changes to its practice seem to believe. © 1999 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Constructing Authoritative Answers to a Latent Crisis? Strategies of Puzzling,Powering and Framing in Dutch Climate Adaptation Practices Compared

While adaptation tends to be approached as an issue for policy analysis, framing and powering strongly interact with policy analysis (puzzling) and are at least as important for adequate outcomes in such an ambiguous context. The present contribution compares and analyzes two Dutch adaptation strategies in the Central Netherlands: (1) realizing a flood bypass channel near the town of Kampen and (2) exploring possibilities to raise the water level of Lake IJssel, enhancing the country’s freshwater storage capacity. The article concludes that in both trajectories there is an important role for policy analysis (puzzling) but the cases differ strongly in the way actors frame the intervention, their corresponding powering strategies and the policy outcomes.     

Tax Increment Debt Finance: An Analysis of the Mainstreaming of a Fringe Sector

Despite the persistent efforts of federal tax policymakers to place binding constraints on the economic development bond market in the United States, it has grown since the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and is a well established segment of the municipal securities market. This article provides an analysis of the development bond market by describing tax increment debt finance (TIF) in the United States and conducting an empirical analysis of California TIF debt. Our analysis indicates that tax increment debt finance (TIF) is no longer an obscure infrequently used financing tool, but for local governments in many states is a commonly used means of raising capital for multiple purposes. Our empirical analysis highlights the unique project-specific features of tax increment finance that bond issuers must understand and manage to enhance the credit quality and minimize the financing costs of tax increment debt.     

Analysing multimodality in an interactive digital environment: software as a meta-semiotic tool

The present paper discusses issues arising from the use of an interactive digital software tool to analyse multimodal communication. The focus is on the ways in which such technical resources and associated techniques enable the analyst of social semiosis to apply different types of analysis, and provide the site for critical reflection upon the results of such analyses. The aim is to present an argument for the use of an interactive digital software application as a meta-semiotic tool. Three major challenges for scholars engaged in multimodal social semiotics are addressed in pursuing this aim, specifically with reference to the development of digital interactive analytical resources. Firstly, scholars are faced with the task of not only accounting for an increasing range of semiotic resources, but also for the way different semiotic phenomena interact to produce meaning. Secondly, the multimodal semiotician has a broad range of analytical approaches potentially relevant to any task to draw upon. Thirdly, the nature of contemporary media forms offer challenges themselves in terms of access, analysis and presentation of analysis.     

养老产业政策体系及其协调性--基于政策文本的量化分析

发展养老产业是应对未来深度老龄化的重要国家战略。聚焦养老产业政策体系,构建其协调性分析框架,选取调查2006—2018年中央、陕西省及安康市的资料,分析国家、省、市三级层面现行养老产业政策文本,应用MAXQDA软件对其进行编码,采用文本内容分析、共词分析、社会网络分析与聚类分析方法,对养老产业政策层级、政策发展历程、政策主体、政策效力、政策专项性、政策内容等进行双维协调性定量分析。研究发现:养老产业政策体系内部不同层级之间政策联系紧密,涉及的政策各要素较为完备,但仍然存在纵向、横向维度中的不协调因素。应通过丰富养老产业政策类型与内容、优化体系结构、加强相关部门合作等有效措施,进一步提升养老产业政策体系的协调性,为推动养老产业的健康可持续发展奠定制度基础。     

The biology-policy interface: Theories of pathogenesis,benefit valuation and public policy formation

This paper reviews some of the basic concepts of cost and risk-benefit analysis in the context of toxic chemical regulation and discusses several critical complexities inherent in the practical application of this methodology. The broad qualitative use of risk-benefit analysis can be an important aid to the decision-making process. It is concluded, however, that the full-scale incorporation of a rigorous form of risk-benefit analysis into the regulatory process is inappropriate at this time and could have significant and unintended consequences.The authors wish to express their gratitude to their colleagues, Professors Norm Carruthers, Denton Marks and Dean Uyeno, and an anonymous referee for their instructive comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Analyzing Roll Calls with Perfect Spatial Voting: France 1946–1958

A recent methodological advance in legislative roll-call analysis is especially relevant to the study of legislative behavior outside the setting of the United States Congress. We argue that Poole's (2000) optimal classification method for roll-call analysis is preferable to parametric methods for studying many legislatures. This is because the nature of party discipline, near-perfect spatial voting, and parliamentary institutions that provides incentives for strategic behavior lead to severe violations of the error assumptions underlying parametric methods. The robustness of the nonparametric method to the stochastic nature of the data makes it an ideal candidate for studying strategic behavior in legislatures. We illustrate these points with an analysis of data from the French Fourth Republic (1946–1958) .     

Playing the Wrong PART: The Program Assessment Rating Tool and the Functions of the President's Budget

The extensive literature about the George W. Bush administration's Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART) has not emphasized an issue that appears quite clearly in interviews with senior Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and congressional staff. Budget analysis can pursue efficiency in two ways. One, the object of traditional analysis, involves assessing programs to understand the ratio of inputs to outputs within an agency, and thus the effects of more or less funding. Another approach, termed “budgeting for results,” measures program performance so as to allocate funding among programs in a way that increases total welfare. The second approach is much more difficult because it necessitates comparison of measures of unlike phenomena, requires expertise that often does not exist, and is more easily contested as invoking values rather than facts. Both congressional and OMB sources report concerns that PART weakened budget analysis by diverting resources from traditional analysis. If one goal of reformers is for the OMB to provide analysis that will influence Congress, the focus should be on strengthening the capacity to do traditional budget analysis.     

Continuity,change, and priorities: The quality and use of regulatory analysis across US administrations

This paper compares the quality and use of regulatory analysis accompanying economically significant regulations proposed by US executive branch agencies in 2008, 2009, and 2010. We find that the quality of regulatory analysis is generally low, but varies widely. Budget regulations, which define how the federal government will spend money or collect revenues, have much lower‐quality analysis than other regulations. The Bush administration's “midnight” regulations finalized between Election Day and Inauguration Day, along with other regulations left for the Obama administration to finalize, tended to have lower‐quality analysis. Most differences between the Bush and Obama administrations depend on agencies' policy preferences. More conservative agencies tended to produce better analysis in the Obama administration, and more liberal agencies tended to do so in the Bush administration. This suggests that agencies more central to an administration's policy priorities do not have to produce as good an analysis to get their regulations promulgated.     

IDENTIFYING MECHANISMS BEHIND POLICY INTERVENTIONS VIA CAUSAL MEDIATION ANALYSIS

Causal analysis in program evaluation has primarily focused on the question about whether or not a program, or package of policies, has an impact on the targeted outcome of interest. However, it is often of scientific and practical importance to also explain why such impacts occur. In this paper, we introduce causal mediation analysis, a statistical framework for analyzing causal mechanisms that has become increasingly popular in social and medical sciences in recent years. The framework enables us to show exactly what assumptions are sufficient for identifying causal mediation effects for the mechanisms of interest, derive a general algorithm for estimating such mechanism‐specific effects, and formulate a sensitivity analysis for the violation of those identification assumptions. We also discuss an extension of the framework to analyze causal mechanisms in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized evaluation studies. The methods are illustrated via applications to two intervention studies on pre‐school classes and job‐training workshops.     

Three views of the expert's role in policymaking: Systems analysis,incrementalism, and the clinical approach

This paper compares three approaches to improving policymaking: systems analysis, disjointed incrementalism, and the clinical approach (elsewhere referred to as the planned change or human relations approach or organization development). It pays particular attention to the way in which these three approaches view organizations and the role of the expert in reform-mongering.It is suggested that systems analysis and incrementalism are quite compatible and that, in fact, systems analysis has, in large measure, accepted the incrementalists' view of the policymaking process. But this acceptance has served not so much to strengthen policy analysis as to increase awareness of its weaknesses.The clinical approach, on the other hand, holds out the promise of strengthening policy analysis, since it focuses on changing organizations, an area in which both systems analysis and incrementalism are weak and, as action-oriented approaches, hampered by their weaknesses. The potential contributions of the clinical approach are considered as well as the likelihood of an eventual synthesis.The first version of this paper was prepared for presentation to the Systems Analysis Group, Canadian Treasury Board.     

Faster? Cheaper? Better? Using ADR to Resolve Federal Sector EEO Complaints

This article examines the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission's Management Directive 110, which requires all federal agencies to offer alternative dispute resolution (ADR) to employees with equal employment opportunity (EEO) complaints. Specifically, the article examines federal sector EEO complaint processing before and after the passage of Management Directive 110 and compares the traditional EEO procedure with the use of ADR on several indicators of case processing and case outcomes. Findings are reported in three sections: an overall analysis, an analysis of the informal stage of the process, and an analysis of the formal stage of the process. The article concludes with a discussion and directions for future research.     

Symposium: Policy analysis for congress. Policy analysis for congress: Lengthening the time horizon

Policy analysis for the Congress is a timely subject. Several policy initiatives have emerged recently from the “first branch.” Others have demonstrated an independent capacity for analysis that is impressive by historical standards. This article introduces a practitioner symposium of three related works on policy analysis for Congress, with appropriate commentary by a distinguished veteran. It argues that because timing is crucial in the congressional policy process, anticipation and advance preparation are central to the effective use of analysis. The other articles illustrate the stages of advance preparation—of the policy analyst, the congressional environment, and the Member for voting—in the form of case studies.     

Conditions of far-right strength in contemporary Western Europe: an application of Kitschelt's theory*

Abstract.   Applying the demand-side claims of Kitschelt's theory, and the expectation that electoral systems affect voter choice, this article provides an explanation of cross-national variation in support for new radical right (NRR) parties between 1982 and 1995. After discussing concepts and measures, two versions of qualitative comparative analysis (Boolean analysis and fuzzy-set analysis) are applied to data for ten West European countries. The results suggest that, in combination with electoral systems that had larger district magnitudes, NRR strength resulted from a restructuring of the space of party competition due to post-industrialism and growth in the welfare state. Convergence between major parties of the left and right was not among the combination of conditions that led to NRR success. Apart from demonstrating that fuzzy-set analysis can yield a simpler explanation than Boolean analysis, this study reveals anomalous NRR outcomes for Austria, Belgium and France.     

Perceptions,fear, and economic loss: an application of prospect theory to environmental decision making

Most of the analysis of costs associated with the introduction of risky prospects has concerned contingent costs amenable to insurance programs. An important missing element is the current cost associated with changes in uncertainty. These costs are not amenable to insurance plans and require compensation in order to prevent transfers. In a novel approach, this paper develops an application of prospect theory to such questions, in an intergenerational context. The importance of such an application is demonstrated in a case study of the high-level nuclear waste repository (HNWR) siting decision. As a case study, the costliness of obtaining some elements of the analysis leads to a simulation approach, comparing prospect costs at the three sites that were under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy. Finding that such costs can be large, we argue for a reassessment of current risk analysis approaches. On a policy note, on the basis of the prospect cost analysis here, the choice of the Yucca Mountain, Nevada, HNWR site seems ill-advised.     

Is it a Pearl or a Kidney Stone? Intelligence Reform and Embassy Reporting,from Moscow to Baghdad

A July 1990 cable from the US Embassy in Moscow that anticipated the collapse of the Soviet Union is a case study for an analysis in this article that seeks to make three points: 1) major failures in intelligence analysis are more likely to result when all elements of the intelligence community speak with one voice than when they disagree; 2) embassy reporting can play an essential role independent of that of the intelligence community in shaping Washington thinking about international events, but a variety of developments have made this increasingly difficult; 3) probability analysis plays too great a role in intelligence products and risk management too little.