美国“反叛乱”理论的发展及其困境

20世纪中期以后,随着第三世界民族解放运动的勃兴和美国加大在第三世界的政治、军事干涉力度,美国政府日益关注和重视"反叛乱"理论与实践。美国"反叛乱"理论的形成与发展大体经历了三大阶段:肯尼迪时期、里根时期和小布什-奥巴马时期。其中肯尼迪时期强调对所谓"反叛乱"政府的扶持,与苏联争夺对第三世界的政治、军事控制;里根时期的"叛乱"和"反叛乱"被纳入"低强度冲突"理论的框架;小布什时期则是为了应对所谓的伊斯兰圣战主义"全球叛乱"。然而"反叛乱"理论作为美国海外干涉的一种理念依据,总是面临着对外干涉本身所固有的政治、军事和道义困境。     

Despite Insurgency: Reducing Military Prerogatives in Colombia and Peru

Colombia and Peru made significant progress in reducing the institutional prerogatives of their respective militaries in the 1990s and 2000s while reforming their economies in a neoliberal direction. They accomplished this despite internal armed threats to state authority and stability. The end of the Cold War, U.S. promotion of "market democracies," and the international centrality of free markets and formal democratic governance coincided with the rise to power in Peru and Colombia of "neoliberal policy coalitions." The internal insurgency mitigated the emergence of antiglobalization or antidemocratic reform factions in the military and civil society. The armed forces unified behind their counterinsurgency mission, and opposition in civil society was weakened, creating greater space for neoliberal elites to reform their economies and reduce military prerogatives.     

Borders that continue to bother us: the politics of cross-border security cooperation in Africa’s Lake Chad Basin

Until 2014, security responses to the Boko Haram insurgency were largely domestic and military. However, the increasing expansion of Boko Haram attacks in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), compounded by the consequent humanitarian crisis, compelled a joint security action. This came in the form of the rejuvenated Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising forces from the LCB member states (Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad) and Benin. My goal in this paper is to interrogate the cross-border dynamics and ramifications of the Boko Haram insurgency, and the nature of security responses to it. The analysis extends to the politics of cross-border security cooperation against Boko Haram in the LCB, as well as the impact of the MNJTF on Boko Haram’s evolving tactics. Along the way, the paper identifies key challenges to the effective operationalisation of the MNJTF.     

Inside the Karen Insurgency: Explaining Conflict and Conciliation in Myanmar’s Changing Borderlands

Since 2012 Myanmar’s oldest ethnic rebel group, the Karen National Union (KNU), has sought for considerable rapprochement with the government. To many, this seemed to be the direct outcome of wider political transition in Myanmar. This article proposes an alternative explanation. Based on extensive field research and an emerging literature on armed groups, it demonstrates that the group’s rapprochement with the government was driven by leadership struggles between two rival factions within the KNU. At the core of this contestation are shifting internal power relations, which resulted from military pressures and geopolitical transformations in the Myanmar-Thai borderlands. These findings point to significant shortcomings of Myanmar’s peace process. They also contribute to the field of Conflict and Security Studies with much needed primary source data on the internal politics of insurgency, which shows how dynamics of civil war are driven by an interplay between forces on different levels of analysis.     

Living in the Shadow of Violence: Local Civil–Military Engagement during Anti-Communist Insurgency Operations in the Philippines

Abstract

The Philippine approach to the anti-communist insurgency after 1986 has featured peace talks with the rebels, amnesty and livelihood packages, and strengthened security forces. While the military has remained central to the counterinsurgency campaign, the government has also institutionalized police involvement in conducting operations and requested input from local civilian authorities in paramilitary recruitment and human rights monitoring. Legal restrictions against human rights violations by soldiers were also established. The experience of 20 frontline communities in central Philippines reflects these changes. Local civil-military interaction has moved from confrontation to consultation and accommodation. However, tension remains because the military and civilian leaders disagree on the gravity of the insurgent threat.     

Islam,ethnicity and the state: contested spaces of legitimacy and power in the Kurdish-Turkish public sphere

ABSTRACT

The pro-Kurdish nationalist mobilization in Turkey was mostly built on the right to self-determination aligned with the Marxist-Leninist ideology for the insurgent Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the early 1980s and ethnic minority rights for the secular-leftist pro-Kurdish legal parties in the 1990s. The Turkish state mostly framed the legal and illegal pro-Kurdish mobilization as ‘the enemy of the state’ and ‘the enemy of Islam’ in its counter-insurgency efforts. However, in the 2000s, the PKK and the pro-Kurdish legal parties became more tolerant and inclusive toward Islamic Kurdish identity by mobilizing their sympathizers in events such as ‘Civic Friday Prayers’ and a ‘Democratic Islamic Congress’. This move aimed to function as an antidote to the rising popularity of the ruling conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the Kurdish Hizbullah in the early 2000s. In other words, Islam and pious Muslim identity has increasingly become contested among Turkish Islamists, Kurdish Islamists, and the secular Kurdish nationalists. This article seeks to unpack why, how, and under what conditions such competing actors and mechanisms shape the discursive and power relationships in the Kurdish-Turkish public sphere.     

The three colors of Novorossiya,or the Russian nationalist mythmaking of the Ukrainian crisis

While the annexation of Crimea boosted Putin's popularity at home, the Donbas insurgency shattered the domestic ideological status quo. The Kremlin's position appeared somehow hesitant, fostering the resentment of Russian nationalist circles that were hoping for a second annexation. In this article, I explore the term Novorossiya as a live mythmaking process orchestrated by different Russian nationalist circles to justify the Donbas insurgency. The powerful pull of Novorossiya rests on its dual meaning in announcing the birth of a New Russia geographically and metaphorically. It is both a promised land to be added to Russia and an anticipation of Russia's own transformation. As such, Novorossiya provides for an exceptional convergence of three underlying ideological paradigms – “red” (Soviet), “white” (Orthodox), and “brown” (Fascist). The Novorossiya storyline validates a new kind of geopolitical adventurism and blurs the boundaries, both territorial and imaginary, of the Russian state.     

Insecure peace: understanding citizen and local government relations in a Maoist-affected region in India

This paper examines emerging citizen and local government relations in a village in the Junglemahal region of the state of West Bengal, once a major bastion of the Maoist insurgency in India. Since 2014, Junglemahal has not experienced a single Maoist-related incident. This has been widely attributed to the West Bengal government’s “model” handling of the insurgency, which rests on the rapid mobilization of public services through the non-elected arms of local governments, bypassing elected officials. How have Junglemahal’s residents experienced this particular form of post-conflict governance? Drawing on the culture-centered approach that ethnographically observes the processes of identifying development problems and developing community-grounded solutions to these problems, our findings indicate that the hyper-developmental state was paradoxically experienced by our respondents as a very distant entity. A recurrent theme in our interviews is the absence of a locally embedded party leadership that could be approached regarding issues of distributive justice. We argue that this desire for party mediation in public service delivery is an expression of a powerful social norm that has survived the conflict and ought to be integrated into post-conflict governance structures if the current peace is to endure.     

越南李朝兵制与唐宋兵制关系探析

兵制是一个国家的重要典章制度,同时也是维护国家独立和民族繁荣的有效手段。李朝作为11至13世纪中南半岛上的强国之一,十分重视兵制的建设。由于中越复杂的历史联系,李朝立国后在兵制的设置上借鉴了唐宋兵制,尤其是重点效仿唐宋兵制的军事领导体制、武装力量体制和兵役制度等军事制度。不过,李朝兵制并没有完全照搬唐宋兵制,它既吸收了唐宋兵制的精华,又因地制宜地发展出了符合李朝自身国情的兵制,并增设了新的兵种"象兵"。李朝兵制无论是在平定内乱抑或开疆扩土中,都契合了国家发展的实际需要。反过来,李朝兵制也对宋朝的兵制产生了一定的影响,宋朝也参考了李朝兵制对其兵制进行改革。宋朝兵制在改革中充分借鉴了李朝的军事编制,尤其是"军"这种新的军队编制的创设,成为宋朝改革军队编制的开端。从李朝兵制大力效仿唐宋兵制,再到宋朝亦在兵制建设上借鉴李朝兵制的优点,这种相互学习与借鉴,增进了古代中国与周边国家的关系,也进一步促进了二者之间的相互交融和融合,从而形成了今天的中国与周边国家的文化中你只有我、我中有你的文化格局。     

Nationalism and modernism in the East Turkestan Republic, 1933–34

This study explains the intellectual history and ideology of the Turkic insurgency and the East Turkestan Republic in Kashgar in 1933–34. Texts in periodicals from the period suggest that the insurgency was defined by its intellectual elites more as a nationalist enterprise than as a religious one. The insurgency's ideologists established important national attributes of the East Turkestani nation, particularly its national name, homeland, symbology, and history, and they also articulated East Turkestani national interests, particularly political independence, representative government, and modernization. Regardless of the arguably low degree of social penetration of the ideas of the elites among common society and the small extent to which policy was actually implemented, the intertwining of East Turkestani national identity and interests with political self-government and modernization was an ideological concept that had a profound impact on all subsequent administrations in Xinjiang.     

From "pirates" to "militants": A historical perspective on anti-state and anti-oil company mobilization among the Ijaw of Warri, Western Niger Delta

Against the background of recent attempts to explain insurgencyin the Niger Delta in the context of the "greed" of militantgroups, this article argues that insurgency can best be explainedby examining the social origins of militant groups. Focusingon the case of the Ijaw of Warri, from among whom the Movementfor the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) emerged, thearticle seeks to demonstrate that insurgency is the consequenceof longstanding experiences of political and social-culturalmarginalization. Militant groups emerged as a result of thefailure of the state and oil companies to respond to peacefulprotests in previous decades.     

Parallel institutionalism and the future of representation in Nigeria

As Nigeria marked its centennial in 2014, violent sectarianism pried open a historical debate about whether ‘amalgamation’ of the country's two former regions by British authorities in 1914 was a ‘mistake’. Even before independence, however, self-interested nationalism restrained self-interested regionalism, sustaining unification. I argue that a ‘parallel institutionalism’ has ever since mediated the nation's heterogeneity through two different visions of representation. A long pause in state creation, a reduction in the Effective Number of Parties, and declining relevance of a pact that facilitated the 1999 democratic transition have revealed latent tensions in the status of multicultural institutionalism and strengthened liberal institutionalism. I then analyse how demographic, economic, and migratory trends are slowly transforming the structure of representation, placing dilemmas of parallel institutionalism at the centre of future nationhood. Additional research could explore a natural experiment between the northeast, which is facing an Islamic insurgency, and the northwest, which is not.     

China's nuclear arms development and arms transfers to the Third World

China's increasing military expenditures are often cited as a main cause of concern for China's neighbors. The fact that China's military buildup has not been limited to conventional forces — it has been developing a nuclear arsenal since the early 1970s —exponentially increases the unease felt by other nations in East Asia. Shigeo Hiramatsu, professor of China Studies at Kyorin University, here explores China's advancing nuclear arms program and the issue of arms transfers to the Third World.     

Understanding the insurgency in Balochistan

The management and incorporation of ethnic identities in Pakistan has historically been far more problematic in Balochistan than other provinces and regions. With the killing in 2006 of Akbar Bugti, a leading political figure who was the head of the Bugti tribe and served as federal minister, chief minister and Governor of Balochistan, the province became politically polarised and has descended into a new cycle of bombings, abductions and murders. The rebellion has resulted in a major security operation pitting the security forces against the Baloch people, attacks against Punjabi settlers and sectarian violence against Hazara Shias that collectively threaten to derail major development projects and increase instability in Pakistan as a whole at a critical juncture. This article examines the insurgency in Balochistan and evaluates various perspectives that have been used to explain the present crisis: external intervention, resistance to social change, resource driven conflict theory, transnationalism and diaspora, and failure to manage difference. After examining the evidence it concludes by arguing that the primary cause for the insurgency in Pakistan is due to poor management of difference.     

Revolutionary Movements in Latin America after the Cold War: The Case of the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo

This article addresses the debate concerning the reasons for the emergence of revolutionary movements in Latin America in the post‐Cold War period. It uses the example of the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP, Paraguayan People's Army) to question the hypothesis by McClintock that, whereas political factors were the principal cause of such movements during the Cold War, economic factors have dominated since then. After reviewing the structural context in which the EPP emerged, as well as its history, strategy and ideology, the article offers a contemporary understanding of the insurgency, examines its relevance to the debate about the prospects for revolution in post‐Cold War Latin America and proposes a reformulation of McClintock's hypothesis.     

Burma,China and the Myth of Military Bases

Abstract

Since the advent of a new, more outward-looking military government in 1988, Burma has come to occupy a position of considerable importance in the Asia-Pacific strategic environment. Burma's burgeoning relationship with China has attracted particular attention, not least because of the stream of reports in the news media and, to a lesser extent, academic literature, claiming that China has established several naval bases and intelligence collection stations in Burma. This apparent intrusion by China into the northeast Indian Ocean has strongly influenced the strategic perceptions and policies of Burma's regional neighbors, notably India. The reported facilities have also been cited as evidence that Burma has become a client state of China, and as proof of Beijing's expansionist designs in South and Southeast Asia. A close examination of the available evidence, however, suggests that there are no Chinese military bases on Burmese soil, a fact conceded by senior Indian officials in 2005. China still has a strong strategic interest in developing its bilateral relations with Burma but, based on this analysis, it would appear that China's presence in Burma, and its current influence over Burma's military regime, have been greatly exaggerated.     

The dog that did not bark: the army and the emergency in India

In June 1975, Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi imposed Emergency rule, capping off a decade long process of the ‘deinstitutionalisation’ of the founding Congress party, increased social mobilisation, and political instability – factors generally considered conducive to military intervention in politics. Organisational factors encouraging military praetorianism, such as military involvement in internal security missions and the growth of ‘rival’ paramilitary institutions, accompanied this process of political decay. But the Indian military did not exploit this window of opportunity. This article offers an institutionalist explanation of the military’s political restraint based on two factors. First, institutionalised mechanisms of civilian control, forged during the critical juncture following independence, insulated the military from politics and the politicians from the military despite the weakening of the political system under which these were created. Second, military internalisation of the norm civilian supremacy, continually reinforced via professional socialisation processes, acted as an internal barrier to military role expansion.     

Post-violence regime survival and expansion in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan

ABSTRACT

Kazakhstan’s and Tajikistan’s governments were able to successfully strengthen their reach and their capacity to control the population in the wake of deadly violence against regime opponents. Yet the process of deepening authoritarianism was not a straightforward affair. Both countries expanded their coercive capabilities – they upgraded policing in rural areas to improve intelligence gathering on the local population and predict the rise of any anti-government activities. While doing so, however, leaders of both countries sought to frame their actions as an inclusive process that was sensitive to the grievances of the affected populations and the general public. This article adds to the growing body of literature on authoritarian state responses to insurgency by showing how authoritarian regimes create narratives, engage civil society and look for political advantage to expand the coercive apparatus.