NATO expansion and Russian national interests

The article centres on the debate in Russia about NATO expansion into Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and how expansion affects re‐emergent Russian national interests post‐Madrid. The author examines official Russian arguments against expansion as well as the views of policy‐makers and political commentators, assesses the impact of NATO's plans on Russian‐Western Security and disarmament arrangements and analyses Russia's relations with her neighbours in CEE, the CIS and Asia.     

The Balkans and the enlargement of NATO: A sceptical view

Throughout the Cold War, NATO and the USA worked hard to consolidate their strategic presence in Europe, while at the same time containing the Soviet threat. But the road taken by NATO in its effort to reform itself after the collapse of Communism and the disintegration of the Warsaw Pact, has not been a royal path, smooth and free of risk. NATO's geopolitical and selective way of eastward expansion encourages the creation of new ‘enemy blocs’ with Russia at their epicentre. The clash between NATO and the European Union over defence and security issues becomes all the more obvious. The humanitarian war over Kosovo was a risky affair whose spillover effects are badly felt today with the uprising of Albanian Macedonians; The Kosovo war, moreover, created a unique precedent in the conduct of foreign policy and clearly bordered on ‘double standard’ politics. Last but not least, the wider implications of Turkey's entry into the European Union may not be, in the long run, as positive for NATO as initially thought they would be.

This article offers a critical overview of NATO's reform process in the 1990s and argues that its transformation from a military defence pact into a political organisation upholding and selectively implementing liberal‐democratic principles may lead the alliance into serious political deadlocks in the years to come.     

NATO enlargement and Russian security: A comparison of findings from two analytical approaches

The article compares the results of two model analyses on the implications of NATO enlargement for Russia's security in six regions: North‐West, West, South‐West, Caucasus, Central Asia, and Far East. One was done by Vitali Tsygichko using his ‘Model of Defense Sufficiency’ (MDS), the other one by these authors using Tsygichko's data as input to the ‘Generalized Force Ratio Model’ (GEFRAM). While agreeing with regard to the general trend in the development of Russia's security situation, the results differ significantly as to whether these trends indicate a reduction of security below Russia's stated requirements. The results are preliminary and meant as an input to a continued debate on the subject among analysts.     

评俄罗斯的新独联体政策

2005年8月26日举行的独联体喀山峰会是独联体发展进程中的一个转折点。在催生新的独联体机制的进程中,俄罗斯依然是核心国家。为维护俄罗斯的地缘政治利益,普京政府采取务实态度,开始推行新的独联体政策。这项政策的核心是,俄罗斯将正视独联体地区多元化发展的政治现实,不再充当资助独联体国家经济、亏本提供能源的角色,不再着眼于阻止美国和欧盟势力进入独联体地区,更看重掌握制定游戏规则的话语权。     

俄罗斯与北约关系开始解冻

2009年12月4日,俄罗斯-北约理事会外长级会议在比利时首都布鲁塞尔举行。会议讨论了俄与北约发展合作关系的“路线图”,并就欧洲安全、军事合作,以及阿富汗等问题达成多项共识。这是自2008年8月俄格冲突以来俄与北约成员国外长首次正式会晤,标志着俄与北约关系已开始解冻。但由于双方积怨很深,在一些重大问题上的分歧仍难消除,今后双方关系如何发展值得关注。     

北约欧盟双东扩:俄罗斯不同对策及其原因分析

俄罗斯对待北约东扩和欧盟东扩的态度与对策既是不同的,也是变化的,原则上俄反对前者而支持后者。这既源于北约、欧盟作为国际组织的性质、主导力量和所体现的对俄政策的不同,也因为俄亲欧防美、分化欧美的外交战略和外交策略考量。北约、欧盟东扩不会停止,俄罗斯也不会甘拜下风。从长远发展观点来看,俄罗斯加入欧盟的可能性要大于加入北约,但也绝非近期之事。     

How NATO remembers: explaining institutional memory in NATO crisis management

This article introduces an argument for how institutional memory of crisis management operations develops in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Scholars of European security and of international organisations have examined organisational learning, but have yet to explain its precondition: institutional memory. In a context of increasing turnover due to defence budget cuts, it remains unclear how shared knowledge of strategic errors is acquired. This article finds that the NATO secretariat facilitates practitioners’ use of informal processes for contributing to institutional memory in response to the constraints of existing formal learning processes. These formal processes, including a lessons learned centre and a lessons learned database, inadvertently disincentivise practitioners from contributing such knowledge as using them can incur reputational costs. Drawing on NATO documentation and interviews with 27 NATO elite practitioners, the paper provides evidence that practitioners instead share knowledge through three informal processes: interpersonal communications, private documentation and crisis simulations.     

俄罗斯的独联体政策:十年间的演变

2001年是苏联解体和独联体建立10周年.俄罗斯作为一个实力大国,在独联体国家中占有举足轻重的地位,且独联体又是一个独特的国际组织形式,这些因素在很大程度上决定了俄罗斯对独联体的政策,也决定了独联体的发展方向和存在特征.本文分析了10年间俄罗斯对独联体政策演变的几个基本阶段及造成这种演变的内外因素,对独联体10年间的发展没有达到俄罗斯预定目标的主客观因素作了简要分析.     

NATO Special Operations: Promise and Problem

NATO special operations forces (SOF) are at a crossroads as the NATO role in Afghanistan winds down. After more than a decade of development, NATO SOF have greatly increased their ability to operate together in the field and in headquarters. If the alliance continues to emphasize SOF development, these forces can play a major role in future NATO campaigns, particularly outside Europe. Moreover, SOF can be maintained effectively in times of austerity. Yet intelligence sharing, particularly in real time, is currently one of the major limitations on NATO SOF, creating divisions between United States and United Kingdom on one hand and much of the rest of NATO on the other. In order to make truly effective use of SOF the alliance needs to make fundamental changes to its decades old system for sharing intelligence.     

NATO beyond 2000: A new flashpoint for European security

The last decade of the twentieth century witnessed radical and potentially constructive adaptation of NATO. Although retaining its core function of collective defence and serving as the transatlantic security forum for consultation and co‐operation, the Alliance pursued new directions in support of wider stability in Europe through enlargement to its east, forging partnerships with former adversaries, and conducting peace enforcement operations outside the treaty area. But the transformation of NATO remains a work in progress. This article discusses three key questions: the nature of peace support operations, the capability to provide for both collective defence and crisis management, and managing further Alliance enlargement while maintaining a working relationship with Russia.     

NATO Regional peacekeeping center in Central and Eastern Europe: A proposal

Abstract

The article asks what the evolution of NATO–Swedish relations signifies for the understanding of the evolution of security communities. Given the astonishing evolution of NATO and Sweden as a community of practise, it is logical to imagine the two as forming part of the same security community. It could then be argued that common practise can bring about new security communities rather hastily. Analysing NATO's and Sweden's recent discourses on security, the author identifies a significant gap between a principally realist and a predominantly idealist discourse that indicates that the two parties do not share key characteristics of a security community – identities, values and meanings. However, if Libya is the case of the future, the discursive differences may fade and Sweden could more easily pursue its journey towards inclusion in NATO, not as a member of an Alliance, but as a member of NATO as a security community.     

试析俄罗斯的宪政转轨:一个比较制度分析视角

社会交换域中传统影响和民众对民主的渴望导致了专权风格的叶利钦宪法,进而为普京时期的威权政治模式打下了基础。普京执政后,推行的这一整套相对集权的政策并不是普京的创造和发明。这种选择其实在1993年已经作出,千年以后的发展只是战术层面的一个调整,是对叶利钦时期政治遗产的整体性继承和局部性调整。原因在于,普京的作为都是在1993年宪法的框架内进行的。从法理角度看,普京当选俄罗斯总统和他的连任,是完全符合宪法准则并按照这些准则实施的,宪法制度为俄罗斯总统权力的集中提供了法律保证。俄罗斯知识界和自由民主派对普京的一系列作法颇有微词,但普京在俄罗斯社会的支持度居高不下,这种状况可以用亨廷顿的一句话来诠释:可以有秩序而无自由,但不能有自由而无秩序。[1]普京做了人民希望的事情,而不是普京自己想作的事情。     

北约与俄罗斯关系调整初析

5月28日,北约19个成员国与俄罗斯的领导人在罗马举行高峰会议,签署了关于建立北约-俄罗斯理事会的《罗马宣言》,以“20”机制取代“19”机制。这表明北约与俄罗斯关系发生重大调整,双方关系进入一个新的发展阶段。