Comparing beneficiaries of the Medicare savings programs with eligible nonparticipants

This note focuses on participation in two entitlement programs that help reduce out-of-pocket expenses for low-income Medicare beneficiaries: the Qualified Medicare Beneficiary (QMB) program and the Specified Low-Income Medicare Beneficiary (SLMB) program. As of 1999, about 2.75 million eligible, noninstitutionalized individuals were not enrolled in these Medicare savings programs. The eligible nonparticipants differed substantially from the QMB and SLMB participants in that they were less likely to be Supplemental Security Income beneficiaries and more likely to be elderly, nonblack, and in relatively good health. These findings, which could help target future outreach efforts, are based on Survey of Income and Program Participation data matched with administrative records from the Social Security Administration.     

The flawed promise of National Security Risk Assessment: nine lessons from the British approach*

Since 2010, quinquennial UK National Security Strategies – and the Strategic Defence and Security Reviews that follow – have been based on a public National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA). The purpose of the NSRA is to identify and prioritize UK security risks for the coming five-yearly cycle based on their likelihood and impact. This article recognizes that trading off severity against likelihood is a valuable strategic heuristic. Yet it concludes that until the NSRA can address nine key limitations, it will remain a flawed exercise. Such findings carry implications for UK policy, and for other states operating NSRA-style risk matrices.     

The Social Security Administration's 10-percent sample file of OASDI beneficiaries.

This is another in a series of technical articles describing Social Security Administration sample files and statistical systems. The focus of this article is the 10-percent sample file that provides program and demographic information on Social Security beneficiaries under the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance program. The article explains the contents and availability of the 10-percent sample and presents several statistical tabulations as examples of the wide variety of data that can be developed from the file.     

Retirement and wealth

The decision to retire is related to the decision to save and to a number of other decisions, including decisions of when to claim Social Security benefits and what share of assets to hold as pensions, Social Security, and in other forms. This article explores the relationships among these various decisions and then explains why it is important to take them into account when attempting to understand the effects of changing Social Security and related policies on retirement outcomes. To understand how Social Security benefits affect retirement behavior, and the implications of changing such features as the Social Security early retirement age, the Social Security Administration and others have begun to estimate and use single-equation models of retirement. We explain why the kind of simple model they use is likely to provide a misleading guide for policy. Even if one's primary interest is in the relationship between Social Security policy and the decision to retire, it is important to incorporate other key decisions into the analysis. These simple models relate the probability of retiring to measures of changes in the value of Social Security benefits when retirement is postponed. The basic problem is that because the omitted factors are related systematically both to retirement outcomes and to the measured reward to postponing retirement, a simple retirement equation credits the effects of the omitted factors to the included measures of changes in Social Security benefits. New policies will change the relationship between retirement and the increase in the value of Social Security benefits with postponed retirement, resulting in incorrect predictions of the effects of new policies. When we fit single-equation retirement models, we find a variety of evidence that important behaviors have been omitted. These models include variables measuring the age of the respondent. These age variables suggest there is a sharp increase in the probability of retirement at age 62. This is a sign that even though the equations include measures of the increase in the value of Social Security with delayed retirement, the cause of the increased retirement behavior at age 62 has not been included in the model. In addition, the estimated effect of a variable measuring the future value of Social Security and pensions on retirement suggests that if the Social Security early retirement age were to be abolished, more people would retire earlier rather than later--a counter-intuitive prediction. There is even more direct evidence of the need for a more comprehensive model of behavior. We show that if individuals' preferences for leisure time were unrelated to their preferences for saving, then a simple retirement equation would yield an unbiased estimate of the effects of Social Security on retirement. An implication of such a model is that those who retire earlier for particular reasons would also save more for those same reasons. But when we estimate an equation with wealth accumulated through 1992 as a dependent variable, together with the simple retirement equation, we do not observe that the factors associated with earlier retirement are also associated with higher saving. These and related findings suggest that those who wish to retire earlier also have a weaker preference for saving, a relationship that is ignored in the simple model and can only be measured in a more complex model. Still other evidence also warns of internal inconsistencies in the simple retirement equations that are being estimated. Social Security incentives are often measured by the increment in the value of benefits associated with deferred retirement, but the incremental value depends on when benefits are claimed. Our findings show that those who retire completely are claiming their benefits too early to be maximizing the expected value of the benefits. Yet the measures of Social Security benefit accrual used in these retirement models often include the increase in the value of benefits from deferred claiming in their measure of the gain to deferring retirement. On the one hand, early retirees are seen not to defer benefit acceptance despite the actuarial advantage. On the other hand, later retirees are said to defer their retirement in order to gain the advantage of deferring benefit acceptance. Our empirical analysis is based on data from the first four waves of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a longitudinal survey of 12,652 respondents from 7,607 households with at least one respondent who was born from 1931 to 1941. Our analysis also uses linked pension and Social Security data together with respondents' records from the HRS. We also evaluate a number of specific features of retirement models and suggest improvements. We develop a measure of the future value of pensions and Social Security--the premium value--that is not subject to a problem plaguing other measures in that it handles the accrual of benefits under defined contribution plans very well. We also introduce a new definition of retirement status that blends information on objective hours worked with subjective self-reports of retirement status. Our findings also explore the effects of Social Security incentives on partial retirement and consider the importance of incorporating partial retirement in any study of the relation of Social Security to retirement behavior.     

Terrorism and pork-barrel spending

The horrifying, tragic events of 9/11 made Americans aware of their vulnerability to terrorist attacks and triggered the creation of the Department of Homeland Security along with a substantial increase in federal spending to both thwart terrorist attacks and to increase our ability to respond to such emergencies. Much of this large increase in spending was in the form of direct transfers to states and cities through several grant programs. Homeland Security grants may be used for protection against terrorist activities, thereby enhancing public interests, or as wealth transfers to state and local governments, enhancing the reelection efforts of incumbents, and thus, private interests. Using 2004 per capita Homeland Security grant funding to states and their cities, we find that the funding formula used for some of the grant programs, which allocates almost 40% of the funds in some grant programs through a minimum percent to each state with the rest allocated based on population, means that per capita funding is related to electoral votes per capita, i.e., to the politics of Presidential re-election. However, the funding in other grant programs is also related to some of the dangers and vulnerabilities faced by states and their cities. Some of the variation in per capita grant allocations is also explained by the amount of airport traffic in the state and the state's population density, which are variables closely linked to the state's vulnerability to attack. Per capita Homeland Security grant allocations, however, do not seem to be related to the closeness of the 2000 presidential race.     

With an Eye Open and a Round Chambered: Explaining the Afghan Insider Threat and its Implications for Sustained Partnership

This article presents ethnographic data and an analytical framework concerning the recent spike in Afghan National Security Force (ANSF) ‘insider’ or ‘green-on-blue’ attacks on NATO forces. This data was collected as part of an in-depth, multi-level case study of NATO partnering efforts with the Afghan Defence and Interior ministries, the Afghan National Army, the Afghan National Police and Afghan Local Police. Preliminary findings support the argument that, in addition to ANSF infiltration and coercion by the Taliban and Haqqani network, cross-cultural friction and contextual stress on Afghan troops are strong contributors to the rise in insider attacks. Additionally, emotional intelligence, cultural awareness and conflict resolution skills are shown to be important mitigating factors.     

Financing Social Security, 1939-1949: a reexamination of the financing policies of this period

This article examines the financing history of the U.S. Social Security system during the period starting with the amendments of 1939 and concluding with the amendments of 1950. It reviews the program's financing policies during this period, and in particular, a series of tax-rate "freezes" enacted during this time. The tax-rate schedule codified in the Social Security Act of 1935 was prevented from taking full effect during these years and the rates were "frozen" at their 1935 level for 15 years. This article seeks to explain the policy context of these rate freezes and their impact on the program's long-range financial solvency. Two major findings emerge from this research: 1. One of the most basic tests of any policy proposal involving Social Security is the projected impact of that proposal on the program's short-range and long-range financing. It would be virtually impossible to propose any serious policy change without a certification from the Social Security actuaries regarding the potential impact of such change. Although Congress enacted the 1939-1949 rate freezes in eight separate legislative acts, the legislative history contains no useable long-range actuarial estimates to gauge the impact of the rate freezes on program financing. How and why such an anomalous circumstance could arise is explored here. cies and has discovered that throughout the period from 1939 to 1950, the Social Security program was almost certainly rendered out of long-range actuarial balance by the rate freezes. How such a circumstance could arise, without serious policy debate, is then examined by situating the rate-freeze decisions in the larger frame of Social Security policymaking during this period.     

The New Public Management, Homeland Security, and the Politics of Civil Service Reform

This article examines the George W. Bush administration's efforts to apply New Public Management reforms to the Department of Homeland Security. The primary focus is the administration's attempt to implement the law. The managerial strategy that Department of Homeland Security and Office of Personnel Management executives used to carry out the law in the massive new department receives attention, with a special focus on the approach used in dealing with the federal courts. The article suggests five general lessons concerning civil service deregulation at the federal level. The case reaffirms the notion that successful administrative reform requires a keen appreciation for the politics that shape it.     

Counter-Intelligence for counter-revolutionary warfare: The South African police security branch 1979–1990

In counter-revolutionary warfare strategy, political action forms the overwhelming part; however, also central as an off-shoot of the tenets of counter-revolutionary warfare is the elimination of insurgent structures – generally a euphemism for assassination. In reality, assassination is a subset of covert paramilitary action, implemented as a consequence of counter-intelligence or even counter-terrorism. South Africa's Security Branch presents one of the best recent examples of the use of counter-intelligence techniques for counter-revolutionary warfare. While politico-constitutional intelligence was gathered by the National Intelligence Service to support constitutional efforts to achieve a settlement of the conflict and bring about a new political dispensation in South Africa, the apartheid government relied on the covert operational capabilities of the security forces (especially the Security Branch) to not only halt the ‘Revolutionary Onslaught’ of the liberation movements, but to eliminate them as a viable political and revolutionary force. In attempting to support an unwinnable political objective, the ultimate corruption of the intelligence process and the reliance of individuals overseeing it far and away on the covert operational intelligence capabilities of the state, the apartheid government brought about its own downfall. The Security Branch was at the heart of these efforts.     

The Social Policies Presidents Make: Pre-Emptive Leadership Under Nixon and Clinton

Grounded in Stephen Skowronek's typology of presidential leadership, this paper furthers our understanding of 'pre-emptive leadership' through a comparative analysis of the welfare and Social Security reforms pursued by US presidents Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton. Although not identical, their experience in these areas provides valuable insight into the difficulty of wielding power in an inhospitable political environment. The paper starts with a brief presentation of Skowronek's typology before discussing the electoral strategies employed by both presidents as they attempted to frame political identities that would allow them to compete successfully in unfavourable ideological and political circumstances. The paper then specifically focuses on the politics of welfare and Social Security reform as the two presidents used these issues as part of their efforts to craft distinctive political images and attract wider electoral support. This comparative analysis reinforces the concept of 'pre-emption' as a valuable tool in understanding presidential behaviour. However, it also underlines the limits of pre-emptive leadership. Pre-emptive strategies can be effective at election time, but they are less likely to succeed in the legislative arena. This reality complicates the presidential search for genuine policy legacies.     

A benefit of one's own: older women's entitlement to Social Security retirement.

This article explores differences in Social Security eligibility and benefit levels for older men and women using survey data from the Health and Retirement Study combined with administrative records on actual work histories and Social Security rules. We are able to determine the fully insured status of those persons, how close they are to meeting eligibility criteria when they are not fully insured, and their prospects for benefits. Around three-quarters of older women nearing retirement today will be fully insured for Social Security old-age benefits on the basis of their own accounts, but the rest would need substantial extra employment to rise above the eligibility threshold. Further, two-thirds of older married women who are fully insured have sufficient lifetime earnings to translate into an age-65 primary insurance amount worth at least half their husband's, but the other one-third can expect no additional retirement benefit from contributing to Social Security late in life. Finally, most wives will not be able to improve their benefits by working more under current rules. These results have mixed implications regarding the potential impact of women's rising labor force attachment on eventual retirement benefits. Working more years could increase women's chances of becoming eligible for Social Security benefits, but that effect is likely to be small. Furthermore, even when women do become fully insured according to the rules, not many wives will receive a higher benefit at the margin. The reason is that married women still receive higher Social Security benefits as a spouse than they do on the basis of their own work record. In fact, the net benefit from Social Security due to additional work is negative once one takes into account the Social Security contributions the women paid while employed. Benefits paid to widows are even more likely to be based on the spouse's work history rather than on the woman's. Hence, the rising labor market attachment of women in the future may increase their eligibility for benefits but will produce only modest (and often negative) impacts on their old-age Social Security benefits under current rules.     

Results of the Office of Policy's 2001 User Satisfaction Survey

In the summer of 2001, individuals who had an active professional interest in research or policy issues related to Social Security or to Supplemental Security Income (SSI) were surveyed by the Gallup Organization, under contract to the Social Security Administration (SSA). The survey had two goals. One was to determine the extent to which SSA's research, statistical, and policy analysis work was focusing on topics and issues of widespread concern to users. The other was to gauge user satisfaction with the products of that work. Most of SSA's research and analysis is carried out by the Office of Policy. Responses were obtained from 1,043 persons out of a sample of 1,800. Respondents were most likely to have been interested in Social Security or SSI issues for at least 10 years, to have used information from SSA multiple times during the preceding 2 years, and to have worked for the government, a college or university, or a nonprofit service organization. Results suggest that most users were satisfied with the quality of SSA's research, statistical, and policy analysis information products. Overall, 86 percent of those who had used products from SSA in the preceding 2 years were very or somewhat satisfied, 10 percent were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, and only 4 percent were somewhat or very dissatisfied. 70 percent to 89 percent of users were satisfied with the accuracy, clarity, comprehensiveness, objectivity, timeliness, usefulness, and ease of finding the information. They were most satisfied with accuracy and objectivity and least satisfied with timeliness and the accessibility of products. 62 percent of respondents were very or somewhat satisfied with SSA's identification of and work on new and emerging research and policy issues over the past 2 years, 24 percent were neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, and 15 percent were somewhat or very dissatisfied. Respondents were asked to characterized their professional interests in two ways--as related primarily to Social Security, SSI, or both programs, and as related primarily to retirement issues, disability issues, or issues in both areas. Satisfaction varied, sometimes substantially, with professional interests. On all measures, Social Security specialists were more satisfied than SSI specialists, and retirement specialists were more satisfied than disability specialists. Note that of respondents interested primarily in the SSI program, 93 percent were also more interested in disability issues. The survey asked users to recommend ways of improving SSA's research, statistical, and policy analysis, and to recommend issues for SSA's research and policy agenda in the near future. Only 39 percent of users offered recommendations for improvement, and of those recommendations, no single issue predominated. In general, the most common recommendations were for increased data analysis in particular areas and for improved dissemination of information. A large proportion of respondents (77 percent) suggested issues that SSA should include in its research and policy agenda. Although the recommendations were quite diverse, two types appeared to dominate--disability issues and programs, and Social Security solvency and reform proposals. Some of the suggestions for disability research and policy work seem to suggest that the lower satisfaction ratings of specialists in this area reflect generalized dissatisfaction with the structure and administration of disability programs themselves rather than dissatisfaction with the quality of SSA's research and policy products. The Office of Policy is developing specific proposals for improving products and services, based on the survey's findings. By improving the quality and content of its statistical and analytical information, SSA will continue its efforts to meet the needs of a diverse research and policy community.     

‘You will be responsible to the GOC’. Stovepiping and the problem of divergent intelligence gathering networks in Northern Ireland, 1969–1975

From the beginning of Northern Ireland’s Troubles, two different strands of British intelligence were developed in Northern Ireland that failed to effectively cooperate or coordinate their efforts with one another. Though central government was aware (and often opposed) the lack of singular control over intelligence in the province, they were unable to wrest control of security intelligence from the hands of the Army and Special Branch. This problem, meant that a Security intelligence ‘stovepipe’ emerged and that this stovepipe operated without reference (and at times in opposition) to policy initiatives also being pursued by the UK government at the time.     

Disabled SSI recipients who work.

A substantial working history is not a characteristic normally associated with recipients of Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments. Yet nearly 80 percent of all SSI disabled recipients have worked before applying for SSI and 20 percent work after they start receiving SSI payments. This study takes a look at various facets of the work histories of disabled SSI recipients, including the amount and types of work done, and the types of recipients who seem most likely to work. Information on these histories was obtained from a 1-percent sample file cross-matched to SSI administrative records and other agency files containing data on employment histories and industry codes. Also discussed are the implications that these work histories have for efforts by the Social Security Administration to encourage SSI disabled recipients to begin or resume work.     

Beyond Welfare: Framing and the Racialization of White Opinion on Social Security

In this article I argue that the framing of Social Security in political discourse has associated it symbolically with race. The linkages are subtle and symbolic, and they serve to associate Social Security with whiteness in a mirror image of the association of welfare with blackness. In turn, these associations have racialized white opinion on the program. After discussing the theoretical mechanism by which issue frames can unconsciously associate policies with citizens' racial predispositions, I review the frames surrounding Social Security. Then, drawing on two decades of nationally representative survey data, I demonstrate the racialization of opinion among whites. Using a variety of measures of racial predispositions, I find that racially conservative whites feel more positively about Social Security than do racial liberals. I conclude by considering the implications of these findings for our understanding of racialized politics and for the connections between race, whiteness, and contemporary American politics.     

Local Economic Development: What is Proposed, What is Done, and What Difference Does it Make?

This paper assesses the comparative policy insights gained from the articles in the symposium in terms of three dimensions: policies proposed, actions taken, and impacts scored. Local economic development interventions are classified in terms of a five-way categorization in terms of geographic breadth of action and reliance on complementary private action as a prerequisite to lasting impact. The nine symposium cases are then examined for their evidence on development efforts' accountability to the public and lessons about efficient use of public funds. The paper concludes that the cases demonstrate that most development efforts have wasted public funds, offering at best the limited success resulting from efforts to beggar neighboring local economics with which competition for development continues.     

Using data for couples to project the distributional effects of changes in Social Security policy

Under Social Security program rules, the aged receive Social Security benefits either as retired workers, spouses, divorced spouses, or widow(er)s. Retired-worker benefits are paid to workers who have 40 quarters of coverage over their lives. Auxiliary benefits are paid to spouses, divorced spouses, and widow(er)s of retired workers. Spouse benefits are computed using the earnings history of the current spouse for individuals who are married when they apply for benefits. Divorced spouse and widow(er) benefits are computed using the earnings history of the ex-spouse or deceased spouse with the highest PIA. A large number of retired women are entitled to auxiliary benefits. Some women receive only auxiliary benefits, while the majority of women have their retired-worker benefit supplemented by auxiliary benefits. Because the level of Social Security benefits can reflect the relative lifetime earnings of both spouses, as a couple, using individual data to estimate Social Security benefits will tend to underestimate actual benefits, particularly for women. However, detailed data for couples are often difficult to obtain. There is currently no known single data source that includes both marital and earnings history information. As a result, many researchers resort to estimating Social Security benefits using individual data or aggregate data, such as the average earnings of men and women. The Social Security Administration's Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, with substantial assistance from the Brookings Institution, the Urban Institute, and the RAND Corporation, is developing a model that overcomes this problem by using the marital and earnings histories of both marital partners to estimate Social Security benefits. The Modeling Income in the Near Term (MINT) model projects retirement income (Social Security benefits, pension income, asset income, and earnings of working beneficiaries) from 1997 through 2031 for current and future Social Security beneficiaries using a unique data source--the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP)--matched to Social Security Administration records. Using MINT data, this article establishes the importance of using data for couples rather than individuals by examining the impact of changing Social Security benefits to reflect 40 years of lifetime earnings rather than the 35 years required under current law. We compare the effect of this policy change on married women by estimating their benefits with data for couples and with individual data. Results indicate that: Using individual data overestimates the projected reduction in retirement benefits brought about by the policy change and makes the effects on women look more severe than they actually are. Because older birth cohorts are more likely than younger cohorts to receive auxiliary benefits based on their husbands' average lifetime earnings, the bias created by using individual data is projected to be much larger for older cohorts than for younger cohorts. This article emphasizes the importance of using data for couples to estimate Social Security benefits, particularly for women. Although our focus is on married women, using data for couples is just as important for calculating the retirement benefits of divorced and widowed individuals. For individuals who are divorced or widowed at retirement, their Social Security benefits are based on their own earnings history, as well as the earnings histories of each of their previous spouses.     

Administration and service delivery in the SSI program: the first 10 years

This article provides an overview of the administrative structures and processes through which the Social Security Administration delivers its services to Supplemental Security Income (SSI) claimants and recipients. It documents the improvements and adjustments that have been made in the administration of SSI from 1974, when the program began, through 1983, the 10th year of its operation. The first decade of SSI was marked by significant changes that have led to improvements in fiscal responsibility and administrative efficiency for the program. Among the subjects covered are the legislative history of the program, the claims process, posteligibility procedures, underpayments and overpayments, the administrative complexities that have had to be surmounted, and administrative efforts aimed at quality assurance.     

Military veterans and Social Security

There are 9.4 million military veterans receiving Social Security benefits, which means that almost one out of every four adult Social Security beneficiaries has served in the United States military. In addition, veterans and their families make up almost 40 percent of the adult Social Security beneficiary population. Policymakers are particularly interested in military veterans and their families and have provided them with benefits through several government programs, including Social Security credits, home loan guarantees, and compensation and pension payments through the Department of Veterans Affairs. It is therefore important to understand the economic and demographic characteristics of this population. Information in this article is based on data from the March 2004 Current Population Survey, a large, nationally representative survey of U.S. households. Veterans are overwhelmingly male compared with all adult Social Security beneficiaries who are more evenly split between males and females. Military veterans receiving Social Security are more likely to be married and to have finished high school compared with all adult Social Security beneficiaries, and they are less likely to be poor or near poor than the overall beneficiary population. Fourteen percent of veterans receiving Social Security benefits have income below 150 percent of poverty, while 25 percent of all adult Social Security beneficiaries are below this level. The higher economic status among veterans is also reflected in the relatively high Social Security benefits they receive. The number of military veterans receiving Social Security benefits will remain high over the next few decades, while their make-up and characteristics will change. In particular, the number of Vietnam War veterans who receive Social Security will increase in the coming decades, while the number of veterans from World War II and the Korean War will decline.