奥巴马政府对华政策展望

奥巴马执政初期仍将会延续布什政府的对华友好政策，但在对华贸易逆差、人民币汇率和人权等问题上可能与中国发生摩擦和分歧。随着时间的推移，奥巴马在这些问题上将逐渐回归灵活和务实的政策。鉴于美国内忧外患的困境及中国综合国力的提升，奥巴马的“非敌非友”对华战略定位将会被逐渐扬弃，其对华政策也将目趋理性和现实，并致力于发展美中战略性伙伴关系。     

Regulating non‐government schools: Explaining success and failure

The challenge faced by governments in the regulation of powerful private actors has allegedly intensified in recent years. This study explores the means at the disposal of governments, and their effectiveness, with respect to the regulation of private actors that demonstrate considerable independence and political efficacy. It is argued that a modified ‘Contextual Interaction Theory’ (CIT), which focuses on the interaction between generic policy instruments (carrots, sticks, and sermons) and target group attributes (motivation, information, and power), and is augmented by a consideration of a separate institutional dimension, offers a useful analytical framework for understanding both the challenge faced by governments and the options for dealing with it. This framework is applied to a study of the introduction of ‘new accountability’ to Australian and Israeli non‐government schools. The use of the standard CIT lenses helps explain Australian success and Israeli government failure in the introduction of new accountability. Australian success is attributable to a judicious mix of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ instruments that favorably impacted target group information and motivation. In Israel, in contrast, policy instrument mixes failed to alter the main target group's oppositional stance. Institutional engineering, however, could provide a promising way for Israeli policymakers to enhance policy instrument effectiveness, by influencing target group power and motivation.     

Post-communist transition of local government in Hungary: Managing emergency social aid

Tensions are embedded in post-communist transitions. Public policies exhibit the disharmony between two different and often competing objectives: (1) developing a fully operational market economy within a democratic context and (2) maintaining social protections in the form of a wide array of social benefits. One challenge for post-communist regimes is the management of this tradeoff. This challenge is observed through an analysis of the administration of emergency social aid in Hungary. The analysis shows that post-communist transitions, as exemplified by the efforts to build local government capacity in Hungary, experience problems of sequencing. In particular, equity decisions are difficult to manage not only because they have their roots in socialist ideology and the policies of the former regime, but also because the increasing number of vulnerable populations makes welfare considerations a politically sensitive task now more than ever before. Meanwhile, the institutional processes needed to manage tensions are fluid and immature. Ultimately the success of the post-communist transition in Hungary (and elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe) will be measured by the ability to build institutions that can manage and consolidate political pressures.     

Reapportionment: A study in comparative government

The periodic redrawing of electoral boundaries is a necessity in any equitable single-member representative system. It is approached in very different ways in the United States and in Britain. In America, against a background of continuous intervention by the courts, party politics and legislative fixing are endemic. Britain (and the other established democracies of the Commonwealth) have all turned increasingly to neutral commissions that are in theory (and, on the whole, in practice) blind to considerations of party advantage. This article explores how this contrast has developed. The reasons behind the profound differences in procedure offer unexpectedly rich insights into comparative government.     

电子化政府:政府再造新范式

电子化政府不仅是一个新概念,而且是一种新的政府管理模式,其内涵在于建立一个虚拟政府,为公民提供方便、 高质量的公共服务。电子化政府的建立成为世界范围内政府再造的新趋势。本文分析了电子政府对政府治理和服务的创 新,进一步提出了我国构建电子政府的政策选择。     

Modeling government behavior in collective bargaining: A test for self-interested bureaucrats

This paper tests for self-interested behavior by local-government bureaucrats engaged in collective bargaining with public employee unions. A theoretical model is developed that shows the effect of Niskanen-style bureaucratic self-interest in the two standard bargaining models: the demand-constrained model and the efficient-bargain model. These predictions are then tested using national cross-section data on unionized police, fire, and sanitation workers.We wish to thank the Institute for Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois for its support of this research. Also, we thank Larry Kahn, Fran Blau, and Pablo Spiller for useful comments. Errors, of course, are ours.     

Democracy and the demand for government redistribution: A survey analysis

This article uses survey data to study the impact of democracy on the demand by poor citizens for government redistribution. Taking the well‐known Meltzer‐Richard theory as the point of departure, three arguments are presented as to why such a demand should be stronger in democracies than in autocracies: in democracies low‐income groups are: (1) exposed to elections that can make a policy difference: (2) better informed about the income distribution; and (3) better equipped to process such information. The argument receives empirical support in a Bayesian multilevel analysis which combines 188 World Values Surveys with cross‐sectional and longitudinal macro data from 80 countries.     

Science vs. government: A reconsideration

A content analysis is made of arms control arguments made in the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and its Subcommittee on Disarmament by five groups: government scientists, academic scientists, politicians, military persons and citizens.It is found that government scientists are closer in their argumentation to other government persons than to their fellow scientists. It is argued that access rather than professionalism is the important independent variable to consider in predicting policy-related behavior.The author wishes to thank Professor Davis Bobrow for his advice throughout the course of this study.     

论儒家文化背景下新加坡高薪养廉政策

新加坡被认为是亚洲地区最清廉的政府，但我们对新加坡高薪养廉政策存在一定程度的误读。高薪这一物质激励在保持新加坡政府廉洁的诸多因素中确有一席之地，但它与内嵌于新加坡社会的儒家文化并由之形成的精神激励互为表里。中国是儒家文化的发源地，通过弘扬传统文化以促进中国廉政建设大有可为。