美国和日本国债政策比较

英国成功运用国债的启示 美国经济从 １９８３年起稳定增长,９０年代后进入了历史上最长的低通胀增长阶段,这主要得益于８０年代里根执政后采取的以债务支撑的减税增支政策。尽管这一政策引起国债规模逐步上升（联邦债务余额占ＧＤＰ的比率由７０年代的２７．４％上升到９０年代初的４７．８％）,但由此产生的较高的实际经济增长却带来了政府税收收入的增加,９０年代中后期赤字减少,并终于于１９９８年在连续１９年的赤字之后,第一次出现了１９５亿美元的盈余。 日本国债政策的失误及其转变 进入 ９０年代,日本经济持续下跌,到１９…     

美国从“经济再平衡”中实现世界套利

金融危机使美国经济受到严重打击。为解决国内就业问题,推动经济增长,在国内消费投资疲软和财政赤字不断加大情况下,美国希望通过增加出口减少进口来带动经济的增长,因此提出了实现世界经济再平衡的观点,目的就是利用世界力量来帮助美国走出低谷。     

小企业:美国经济的支柱

美国虽然是超级经济大国，但小企业在美国经济中却占有极为重要的地位，特别是９０年代以来，小企业已成为美国大部分新增就业岗位和技术创新的源泉。本文拟就美国小企业的发展，政府的扶持政策极其给我们的启示作以粗浅的分析。一、小企业：美国经济的“半边天”美国经济自１９９１年３月走出衰退之后，近几年持续保持增长，这固然与其８０年代以来完成经济结构转型、信息技术和高新技术发展带动经济增长、出口扩大以及克林顿政府对经济的宏观调控，尤其是削减政府财政赤字方面所采取的一系列重大而有效的措施有关，但不容忽视的一个重要因…     

里根政府新预算面临考验

美国总统里根二月初正式向国会提交了一九八六财政年度预算咨文。新预算规定联邦政府的总收入为七千九百三十七亿美元,总开支为九千七百三十七亿美元,赤字高达一千八百亿美元。 新预算同里根第一任期的四个预算相比,在政策指导思想方面是一脉相承的,仍然是以“供应学派”为理论依据,削减政府开支,通过扩大税收基础进一步减税,进行行政改革,支持稳妥的货币政策,从而达到鼓励储蓄、刺激投资、促进生产的目的。所不同的是新预算在原来的方向上走得更远了,这主要表现在两个方面:其一,进一步降低联邦     

品牌文化建设的“一二三四五”

<正>现在,中国的GDP位居世界第四位,世界制造大国的地位已不可动摇,但无品牌的中国产品,展示给世界的只能是硬件的坚实,却不是软件繁荣,当西方国家抱怨贸易赤字的时候,我们应自省的则是"品牌赤字"。一个成功的品牌应该     

美国巨额赤字引发全球愤怒

美国赤字“超出期望” 美国白宫管理和预算办公室25日宣布，美国经济哀退状况要比2月时预测的更加恶化，随着政府税收收入缩水，福利金和食品券等支出增加，各项新的假定把预期的未来10年累计赤字推高至9．05万亿美元。     

美国的强盛之道:政府视角的解读

美国的强盛之道是一个伟大的历史课题,可以从多维视角进行研究.从政府视角看,美国的强盛与其自始就重视政府的改革建设有密不可分的逻辑相关性.从邦联到联邦、罗斯福新政、里根革命,无不显示美国人对政府这一文明之关键性因素的重视.在美国,正是社会危机导致政府变革,而政府变革促成经济社会的浴火重生.因此,透过美国强盛的案例,我们应该看到政府不应固守任何政治教条与治理范式,而应与时俱进,根据经济社会发展的需要对自身结构与理念进行调适性改造,如此,方能克服社会的结构性危机,再创发展新辉煌.     

美国一九九二年财政年度预算初析

华盛顿专电 在美国经济陷入衰退和海湾战争激烈进行的情况下,2月4日美国总统布什向国会递交了1992财政年度预算。这份长达2029页、重达7磅的预算报告的特点是:联邦财政赤字仍然居高不下,财政收入的增长建立在过于乐观的经济增长速度上,缺乏对付经济衰退的措施。 根据新预算,1992财政年度(今年10月1日开始)美国政府开支将达1.445万亿美元,比上一个财政年度增长2.6％;政府收入预计为1.165万     

评劫贫济富中的“里根衰退”

今年春天我去美国参加美中经济讨论会,对美国当前经济又作了一番考察,了解了一部分美国朋友对里根经济政策的看法。许多人断定“里根经济学”必然破产。他们称里根经济政策是劫贫济富的战争经济政策。他们把当前美国的经济危机叫做“里根衰退”。我看这些意见是有道理的。 里根入主白宫后,提出了一个“经济复兴计划”。它的基本目标是:刺激投资,增加供应(生产),促进美国经济的增长。一年来的实践,证明里根的经济政策遭到了严重挫折。从去年八月开始,美国经济再度     

2011年全球经济5大部署

金融危机最糟糕的时候似乎已经过去了,2010年资产市场的表现不错。美国和部分欧洲国家恢复了增长,私营部门去杠杆化仍在继续,但被公共部门不断增加的赤字和债务所抵消。在隔离大规模资本流入的另类政策帮助下,新兴市场增幅回到危机前水平,并且     

Federal Deficits, Debt and Interest Costs

Current federal government deficits are of a size unprecedented since World War II. While budget surpluses have been infrequent, deficits before 1982 were small enough that the federal debt shrunk in relation to the size of the economy. Now, however, the federal deficit is stuck at about 5 percent of gross national product, and the ratio of federal debt to gross national product (GNP) is growing rapidly. These large deficits are driving up interest rates, hurting American exports, turning the United States into a debtor nation, and causing government interest outlays to spiral. The possibilities are limited for lowering interest costs through directly reducing interest rates or introducing new Treasury debt management strategies. The only way to cage the interest monster is to enact a substantial package of tax increases and cuts in noninterest spending. We list some possible elements of such a package and show how they might be combined to tame the growth of debt.     

Who Gains from Charitable Tax Credit Programs? The Arizona Model

The Bush administration and some states have promoted charitable tax credits as a way to increase private charitable giving, to support antipoverty programs, and to allow taxpayers to directly determine the utility and effectiveness of nonprofit services. Looking at Arizona's charitable tax credit program, this study assesses the strengths and limitations of this policy approach. Although charitable giving increased during the first two years of the program (1998 and 1999), tax returns from 2000 suggest it may be difficult to sustain these gains in a weak economy. Larger and better-known nonprofits and taxpayers who itemize their returns are the primary beneficiaries of the program. The program may put small but well-run organizations at a competitive disadvantage, weaken accountability in the sector, and pose administrative challenges to state departments of revenue. This analysis suggests that tax credits are not a panacea for the funding needs of nonprofits.     

Deficits, Soft Budget Constraints and Bailouts: Budgeting after the Norwegian Hospital Reform

In the 1990s, the Norwegian hospital sector was characterized by soft budgetary constraints and increasing budget deficits. This was one of the main antecedents of the 2002 hospital reform, where the central state took over ownership of the hospitals from the counties. Arguably, the centralization of ownership, financing and production would harden the budget constraints and increase the budgetary discipline. This analysis shows that this has not been accomplished. Instead, the production has been far above what was planned, and the deficits higher than ever. Two stages of the post-reform budget processes are analyzed: first, the stage where the central state set the budgets and sends signals of budgetary rules (whether the state sends signals of soft or hard budget constraints), and second, how the central state handled deficits in the hospital sector as they emerged (whether the hospitals was bailed out or not). The conclusion is that the central state neither set a hard budget constraint nor managed to stay firm as deficits turned up. It is argued that three mechanisms explain the prevailing problems of managing the hospital sector: uncertainty of the hospitals' financial situation during the transition phase; minority governments; and specific features related to the organization of the budgetary process in parliament.     

全球经济进入"低增长陷阱"背景下的中国财税改革研究

随着全球经济进入低增长阶段,政府宏观政策的多样化和有效性在经济周期中的调控作用不断提高.政府进行的新一轮财税制度改革既是应对全球经济低增长、国内经济换挡、中美贸易战等的重要举措,也是延续分税制改革、缓解土地财政压力和降低地方债务风险的必然结果.新一轮财税制度改革通过维持增值税"五五分享"比例以稳定和调整增值税留抵退税分担机制,后移消费税征收环节并稳步下划地方以保障地方财政收入和提高地方财政支出能力,减税降费以刺激企业创新,合理化收入分配制度以扩大内需,最终实现经济的稳定增长.新一轮财税制度改革取得预期效果,还需要完善转移支付制度、预算管理制度、债务管理制度、信息披露制度等,保障政策落到实处.     

The Reagan Deficit

This paper analyzes the U.S. federal budget deficit during the Reagan administration and its short- and longer-term consequences for the aggregate economy. While budget policies of the Reagan administration do not account for all of the increases in annual deficits or in outstanding federal debt during the Reagan era, an analysis indicates that the administration's program of tax reduction and defense spending build-up were the major sources of deficit growth after the recovery from the recession of 1981-82. For the near-term future, the legacy of the Reagan deficits includes (1) the failure of domestically owned capital formation to expand at rates comparable to our major trading partners, (2) the necessity of diverting U.S. products and income to servicing foreign creditors, and (3) the need for rates of interest and profits to be high enough to induce foreigners to retain their holdings of U.S. assets lest divestiture cause a virtual collapse in the exchange rate. The final evaluation of the impact of the Reagan deficit hinges on whether the Reagan era of high consumption prosperity proves a good trade-off with the consequences of attenuated macropolicy responses to recession, lower levels of U.S. owned capital stock, and remittances to foreign creditors.     

The Obama Administration and PBB: Building on the Legacy of Federal Performance‐Informed Budgeting?

The administration of President Barack Obama, like those of his immediate predecessors, is focused on trying to improve the quality of, and use of, performance data. The federal government has been pursuing performance‐informed budget reforms for more than 50 years. Most recently, the Bush administration reforms included the President’s Management Agenda and the Program Assessment Rating Tool (PART). The Obama administration reforms include: measuring the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act; reducing or eliminating poorly‐performing programs; setting a limited number of short‐term, high‐priority performance goals; and funding detailed program evaluations. The administration is taking a more agency‐driven approach than the Bush administration, but continues to find it challenging to move beyond production of performance data to its use. There should be opportunities to show how performance information can be used for decision making, given the change in the political climate and the needs to reduce spending and the deficit. Historically, there has been little appetite in the Congress for evidence‐based decision making. The administration, however, can continue to demonstrate how federal agencies can use performance information to more effectively manage programs.     

Taking ‘Big Government Conservatism’ Seriously? The Bush Presidency Reconsidered

This article reflects on the ongoing debate about the ideological direction of the Bush presidency and what it means for the future of US conservatism in domestic policy. The paper considers the dual nature of US conservatism and then goes on to explore the 'conservative promise' of the 2000 presidential election and the debate over what critiques of the Bush administration have come to call 'big government conservatism'. Finally, the article studies two examples of how this alleged 'big government conservatism' has been manifested. First, the article contemplates the administration's fiscal policy. Second it looks at the 2003 reform of the Medicare system. We argue that, although these two cases provide some ground to the idea of 'big government conservatism', in the end this phenomenon does not add up to a coherent policy vision. Overall, beyond tax cuts, the Bush administration has failed to implement a bold conservative agenda.     

War Narratives: Framing Our Understanding of the War on Terror

Unlike past American wars, the current war on terror has not been associated with a centrally proffered narrative providing some guidance and orientation for those administering government services under state-of-war conditions. War is as much a cultural endeavor as it is a military undertaking, and the absence of a clear sensemaking narrative was detected in this study of public administrators from three agencies with varying proximity to the conflict. Q-methodology was used to explore the way individuals processed the war narratives put forth by the Bush administration and reported in the media immediately following the September 11 attacks. Though no distinct state-of-war narratives were found among the public administrators in this study, there are clear indications that latent narratives reflecting local political and organizational task environments have emerged.     

Budgeting during the Clinton Presidency

This article assesses the Clinton administration record of budgeting. During President Clinton's two terms, the federal government moved from an era of large deficits to one of equally large surpluses. This turnaround was caused by both the strong economy and the deficit reduction deals of 1990, 1993, and 1997. Defense spending and interest declined as a percentage of the budget, whereas mandatory spending and nondefense discretionary spending increased. Acrimonious interbranch budgetary relationships dominated, with Clinton ultimately winning far more fights than he lost. Executive branch budgetary and financial management capacity improved during the Clinton administration.     

US Policy and the Nuclear Weapons Ambitions of the “Axis of Evil” Countries*

This article examines US policy as it pertains to the nuclear weapons objectives of what the Bush administration identified as the countries making up the “axis of evil,” pre-war Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Having drawn the same conclusion as that appearing in the 2000 report of the Project for the New American Century, which alleged the involvement of these countries in illicit activities relating to nuclear weapons, the Bush administration initiated an overtly hostile and accusatory policy toward each of these nations after 9/11.Undeterred by the paucity of evidence and the failure to find a nuclear weapons program (or any weapons of mass destruction) in Iraq, the Bush administration has remained relentlessly focused on the nuclear weapons ambitions of North Korea and Iran, all the while ignoring or minimizing diplomatic efforts that are not hegemonic and confrontational. This paper stresses that for the past several years the Bush administration has not hesitated in using questionable and uncertain information relating to the nuclear weapons objectives of the “axis of evil” countries, even though it has demonstrated no interest in eliminating US nuclear weapons as the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty obligates it to do.