SECURITIZATION OF CATASTROPHE INSURANCE RISK AND CATASTROPHE BONDS: EXPERIENCES AND LESSONS TO LEARN

It is reasonable to expect that catastrophe insurance system will be established in China in the near future, since it is one of the main topics in the Fourth National Finance Working Conference, and it is the first three working points of China Insurance Regulation Commission (CIRC) this year. Due to the high loss of catastrophe and incapacity of the insurance industry, securitization of catastrophe risk serves as a significant alternative risk tool for catastrophe insurance industry. This has been practiced in the U.S. since the mid-1990s and catastrophe bonds are perfect examples. In this paper, we will first introduce the practices and challenges of securitization of catastrophe risk in the U.S., especially the catastrophe bonds which have been the predominant form until now. And then, the author will use the supply-demand framework to analyze whether securitization of risk is feasible in China. However, due to the institutional shortcomings, including legal frame, regulatory institutions and so on, issuing the ILS will take quite a long time and a tough process in China.     

PROBATION AND PAROLE: PUBLIC RISK AND THE FUTURE OF INCARCERATION ALTERNATIVES*

Jail and prison populations in the United States have continued to grow unabated during the past two decades but crime rates have not declined. Partly in response to the pressures caused by burgeoning correctional populations, the use of alternatives to incarceration has expanded. An ongoing debate centers on the effectiveness of these alternatives. Many criminal justice professionals and some researchers question whether such alternatives seriously restrict the criminal justice system 's ability to incapacitate the active offender. This study deals specifically with two alternatives to incarceration: probation and parole. We examine offender recidivism for a sample of probationers and parolees active in New Orleans, Louisiana, and offer a new approach to addressing the effectiveness issue. Past research has evaluated the effectiveness of alternatives by examining failure rates of diverted offenders. High failure rates, we argue, do not necessarily imply a significant loss of the incapacitative effects of imprisonment. We suggest that a more appropriate measure of the loss of incapacitative effect is the proportion of all offenses committed by persons on probation or parole. Our results suggest that such losses are surprisingly low. The policy implications of our findings are discussed.     

ALCOHOL AND THE RISK OF PHYSICAL AND SEXUAL ASSAULT VICTIMIZATION*

We examine the effect of alcohol consumption on an individual's risk of victimization for physical and sexual assault. Analyses of the National Violence Against Women Survey suggest that the frequency and amount of alcohol people consume has strong effects on their risk of victimization when drinking, but is not associated with their victimization while sober. This evidence suggests that drinking has a situational causal effect on victimization, and cannot be attributed to opportunity factors associated with drinking. This effect is particularly strong for men and young adults, who may be more likely to behave provocatively when under the influence. Victims of sexual assaults and men assaulted by their female partners are also particularly likely to be drinking.     

PEER GROUP INTERVENTIONS TO REDUCE THE RISK OF DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR: A SELECTIVE REVIEW AND A NEW EVALUATION*

Evaluations of correctional treatment programs for criminal offenders and of school-based delinquency prevention programs based on Guided-Group Interaction (GGI) and similar interventions are critically reviewed. One study—the Provo Experiment—provided convincing evidence for the superiority of a community treatment program involving GGI over incarceration (for persons who would otherwise be incarcerated) and modest superiority over probation (for persons who would otherwise be assigned probation). Some evaluations of school-based prevention programs involving GGI derivatives that have been cited as supporting the efficacy of these programs are flawed and may be misleading. A new experimental evaluation of a school-based intervention based on a GGI derivative implies that it increased delinquent behavior among students exposed to it.     

RISK PERCEPTIONS AMONG SERIOUS OFFENDERS: THE ROLE OF CRIME AND PUNISHMENT*

Previous research on the perceived certainty of punishment indicates that individuals with experience in committing crimes perceive arrest as less certain than do those without such experience. Studies assessing the influence of experiencing formal sanctions on perceptions of risk have produced mixed results. Most studies however, have not considered the experience of sanctions in conjunction with the frequency of criminal behavior. With a sample of 1,046 incarcerated felons, we examined relationships among perceived risk of arrest, arrest history, and frequency of committing crimes. Our findings suggest that it is important to measure the ratio of arrests to crimes and that perceptions of risk are formed in a manner consistent with a rational choice perspective, even in a sample of serious offenders.     

HIGH SCHOOL EXPERIENCE AND THE RISK OF ADULT INCARCERATION*

This study assesses the effects of high school educational experiences on the risk of incarceration for young men aged 19–36 using event history analysis and National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. High school education serves as a defining moment in an individual's life course. Young men who enroll in secondary occupational course work significantly reduce their likelihood of incarceration both overall and net of differences in the adult labor market. High school student/teacher ratios and student composition also significantly affect an individual's risk of incarceration.     

THE POTENTIAL DEMISE OF ANOTHER NATURAL MONOPOLY: NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND THE ADMINISTRATION OF PERFORMING RIGHTS

This is a second in a series of two articles in which I challengethe collective administration of performing rights. In the firstarticle, published in a recent issue of this journal, I questionedthe natural monopoly paradigm that dominates the analysis ofcollective administration of performing rights. In this articleI demonstrate how, by lowering many of the transaction costswhich previously purported to justify the practice, new digitaltechnologies further undermine the justification for collectiveadministration. I also discuss whether market forces alone wouldtransform the market into a competitive one, consider possiblecontinuing roles for existing performing rights organizations,and compare the Canadian and the U.S. regulatory approachesto determine how conducive they are to such change.     

THE FUNNY SIDE OF DRUG DEALING: RISK,HUMOR, AND NARRATIVE IDENTITY

In this study, we explore the role humor plays in the narrated identities of drug dealers, in their negotiation of the threat of formal punishment, and in their cultural membership and authority. By drawing from interview and observation data gathered from 33 active drug dealers residing in St. Louis, Missouri, we find that humor facilitates identity work among illicit drug dealers in several ways. Humor is an important symbolic boundary marker distinguishing dealers from others they consider “stupid” or less circumspect. It also indicates dealers’ identities as “smart” and simultaneously establishes and validates their subcultural authority and membership in the symbolic group of “smart” dealers. Furthermore, drug dealers use denigrating humor in their narratives to distance their former and virtual identities from their present identities. Finally, humor also reduces dealers’ perceptions of the threats posed by police and potential snitches by casting dealers’ present identities and former reactions to the threat of punishment in a positive light. We conclude by discussing implications for narrative criminology, extant humor research, and current understanding of symbolic boundaries, identity work, and deterrence.     

THE HAGUE CONVENTION ON INTERNATIONAL CHILD ABDUCTION AND THE GRAVE RISK OF HARM EXCEPTION

International child abduction is a problem that affects families around the world. The Hague Convention on the Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction was instituted to ensure that abducted children are promptly and safely returned home. Although the goal has been met, recent decisions and their use of Article 13(b) have limited the return of children to Israel on the premise that political turmoil and increased incidences of terrorist attacks constitute war. Although few would dispute that the recent escalation of terrorist attacks in Israel is troublesome, these incidences do not rise to the level of war. Such interpretations of Article 13(b) is too broad and undermines the Convention's policies. Unfortunately, in the global post-September 11th climate, terror attacks are inevitable throughout the world. In light of this harsh reality, courts must not be quick to declare that a country is a zone of war absent clear and convincing evidence.     

INDUSTRY CULTURE AND INDUSTRY ECONOMY: CORRELATES OF TAX NONCOMPLIANCE IN SWEDEN*

Industry culture and industry economy have been used, with mixed results, to explain violations of law by corporate enterprise. The purpose of this paper is to use these theoretical concepts to examine differential noncompliance with tax law across Swedish industry in the early 1980s. A measure of noncompliance by industry is developed using tax audit data. The impact of audit policy on measured noncompliance is evaluated. Differences in industry culture are indicated by information on the presence and diffusion of techniques for noncompliance. Differences across industries in incentives to violate are indicated by bankruptcy rates and opportunities to gain through noncompliance. A hypothetical model is offered that explains the dynamic interaction of these factors and that could generate the static results reported. The paper concludes with a discussion of industry-level analysis in predicting corporate violations.